Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue eastward through the Evansville Tri State and west
Kentucky through the morning. If there is enough sunshine, 06Z
NAM soundings indicate there may be enough instability to support
a few pulsy strong to severe storms this afternoon, mainly east
of the Lakes in west Kentucky. Wind fields are too weak for more
organized convection today. The primary upper disturbance should
push east of the area by sunset and that should bring an end to
any organized convection through the remainder of the short term

The 00Z guidance continues to build an upper ridge northeast
across our region Wednesday and Thursday, while surface high
pressure settles in over the Appalachians. We should be dry both
days, but cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm,
mainly in the heat of the day over west Kentucky. If an isolated
storm develops either afternoon, it will be pulsy again, as the
flow aloft will be very weak. Given the heat and humidity
expected, a stray storm may briefly pulse up to near severe
levels. Once again most, if not, all of the region will be dry
after today.

Southeast flow in the low-levels will keep temperatures from
really soaring past 90 degrees Wednesday and Thursday, but it
will still be 5-10 degrees above normal for both highs and lows
both days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Fairly high confidence in the extended with decent model agreement.
The extended shows generally dry conditions due to high pressure at
the surface and aloft. However with southerly flow continuing to
pump in plenty of moisture and the occasional kink in the upper
level flow, there will be small chances for showers and storms. It
is here in the timing that the models differ a little. Sunday and
Monday have a better chance at isolated precipitation especially
during the peak heating of each day. Above normal temperatures will
persist through the period.


Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

The showers and storms moved out of the area this morning.
Considerable cumulus cloud formation has been occurring during the
midday hours. Cigs in the mvfr category will rise to vfr in most
places this afternoon as cumulus cloud bases lift. The cumulus
clouds will dissipate with loss of daytime heating around sunset.

The main concern for tonight is fog potential. The very humid air
mass and areas of rain-moistened ground argue for some fog by
sunrise. It appears there will be enough wind just above the surface
to prevent widespread dense fog. However, mvfr vsbys should be quite
common late tonight into early Wed. The fog will burn off quickly
after sunrise Wednesday.




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