Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
FXUS63 KPAH 301716
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1116 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013
Sfc high pressure will continue to migrate into the New England
States and off the east coast over the next 24 hours. In the
meantime, southerly flow at the sfc to increase today as a front
sags southeast toward the region. This should help to raise high
temps once again today as decent warm air advection takes place.
Given that even the warmest guidance was still not warm enough in
some spots yesterday, will definitely lean on the warmest guidance
for todays forecast and maybe even go above that in some places. In
addition, looking at soundings, we could get pretty gusty here by
afternoon. Will up the wind gusts in the grids.
The more challenging part of the forecast arrives for tomorrow.
Clouds will be on the increase tonight and into Sunday as the
aforementioned front sinks further and further south into the
region. With the amount of low level moisture that is slated to
advect into the area...not sure how much sun we will receive. That
will have implications on temperatures. Guidance is taking sides
here with regards to highs on Sunday, with the MAV being much colder
than the MET. We will hedge on the warmer guidance but not as high
as the warmest guidance due to the thick layer of low clouds we will
Once the front moves into the CWA, it becomes mainly stationary
throughout the rest of the day and into Sunday night. Models show a
low developing around the Arklatex region which moves E/NE late
Sunday night into Monday. Models generally keep most of the precip
to our south during this time frame, which makes sense given the
best lift will be there. However, as cloud bases lower even more
throughout the night on Sunday, we could see a little drizzle but
widespread wetting rains just do not look probable at this point.
The problem on Monday lies in the fact that models diverge on where
this sfc low migrates to. The NAM pulls the low up into the MO
bootheel by 18Z Mon, while the GFS shows it clear into the
Appalachians. The NAM hints at some additional QPF on Monday just as
the GFS did for Sunday night. The Euro is a lot like the NAM.
Believe the best course of action is to introduce at least a mention
of drizzle and/or light rain to the forecast for Sunday night/Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013
A notable pattern shift will take place by mid week. A mid level
trof is forecast to take shape over the western U.S. with a ridge
evolving over the east U.S. in response. This will place our area
in an increasingly unsettled SW flow aloft. Precip chances will be
minimal until Wednesday night. From Wednesday night through Friday
several rounds of precip appears likely. Persistent isentropic
lift and mid level support will support high precip chances. We
introduced thunder Wed night given elevated instability parameters.
Also went above guidance on temps and dew points Wednesday night
into early Thursday as very mild and higher dew point air will
surge north ahead of an approaching front. Showers will likely
persist through the day Thursday. Thunder possible SE 1/2 of the
Will maintain transitional precip, to a wintry mix wording for
Thursday night into Friday, as strong sfc/low trop CAA develops
in the wake of FROPA. Should precip linger as long as some of
the ECMWF data/runs have shown, we could be looking at winter
weather impacts, especially over the NW 1/2 of the area. But it`s
simply too soon to say for sure, given model variability and
how far out in time we are talking.
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013
Main challenge with the 18z Saturday TAF package is 1) persistance
of gradient winds this afternoon, and 2) timing of stratus ahead
of cold front on Sunday.
Initially, the gradient winds at or below 2500 ft agl this
afternoon should aid in the introduction of periodic gusts through
sunset. Given the short duration of these wind gusts, they were
placed in a TEMPO group for this afternoon.
The moisture associated with the stratus field in Texas, southeast
OK, and southwest AR should advect into KCGI and KPAH between 06z-
09z Sunday, as general, but weak lift associated with approaching
cold front moves closer to these locations. The stratus should
hold off until daybreak at KEVV and KOWB. The timing of the
diurnally enhanced stratus field and the broad, but weak lift from
the approaching cold front may yield a little morning drizzle at
these two locations.
Although visibilities could dip below six statute miles at all TAF
sites, a visibility restriction was only added at KOWB and KEVV
due to the potential for drizzle.