Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290645
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

The main forecast challenge in the short term will be how weak
disturbance aloft will affect the region over the course of the
weekend. This disturbance will drift into the region today, then
become nearly stationary overnight and Sunday. At the same time,
sfc high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the se
CONUS.

Moisture will be increasing around the western periphery of this
high, but there just does not seem to be any low level
mechanism/lift to help generate and focus any organized convection
through Monday. Think there may be a few stray
showers/thundershowers here and there, but most locations will
probably stay rainfree through the short term period. Also, do to
very weak flow aloft, any storm that manages to form will probably
not last very long as it will tend to choke off its updraft pretty
quickly.

Max temps will be highly dependent of the amount of sunshine
received at any particular location. Areas that keep lots of cloud
cover this weekend may not make it much above 80 degrees. However,
it will only take an hour or two of good afternoon sun to bump
readings into the upper half of the 80s. Will likely play the
middle of the road most locations to minimize potential error.
With increasing sfc dew points, night time low temps will likely
stay in the upper half of the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A modified Rex Block appears to continue in and near the WFO PAH
forecast area, superimposed within a larger, and stable full
latitude Western U.S. trough, Central/Eastern U.S. Ridge, Eastern
Canada/Greenland Trough/Low.

The mean trough axis that moves through the WFO PAH forecast area
this weekend continues to phase with the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast U.S. weak closed low. The interplay of this low and
attendant deformation zone between Southwest U.S. and Western
Atlantic/Eastern U.S. seaboard Ridge will periodically create small
thermal pockets of instability over the WFO PAH area, mainly over
the Southeast part of the forecast area (West Kentucky). This area
would be along and east of the impressed mid-level low and elevated
warm advection zone. The trajectory of low level winds will be from
the east ad northeast during this time, marginalizing any effective
and sustained moisture advection.

For the extended forecast period this will continue to lead to
minimal and/or non-existent chances for precipitation.

The weak surface pressure/wind gradient will limit any significant
swings in temperature advection, leaving insolation (sunshine) the
dominant diurnal component for impact on temperatures. Anticipate
little variation in temperatures through the extended forecast
period, remaining within 1-4 degrees at or above normal (upper 80s)
for this time of year.

The prolonged lack of widespread surface rainfall should aid in
continued evapotranspiration and may work to gradually lower
vegetation moisture for both agricultural and fire weather sectors.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Moisture will be on the increase from the south/southeast through
the period. Mentioned BCFG for early today, through about 14z, at
KCGI/KPAH. Small chances for isolated convection Saturday
afternoon/evening mainly over western Kentucky and southwest
Indiana, but not high enough for explicit mention. Generally VFR
conditions expected at all sites through the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meffert
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Meffert


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