Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 170027
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
727 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Updated the aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Short and medium range model guidance appear to be similar on the
timing of the Northern Plains shortwave timing, orientation, and
intensity as it moves north of the WFO PAH forecast area tonight
through Friday.

As this wave sharpens and deepens tonight, the probability of warm
advection showers will increase as mean layer moisture and lift
increase from the southwest.

There is a small window of elevated instability Friday afternoon
afternoon and evening as the apex of vorticity advection and thermal
instability approaches its closest point of the WFO PAH forecast
area. Although there has been some model derived elevated
instability in play for previous numerical model runs, the model
runs during the past 12-24 hours are suggesting more convective
inhibition in the elevated layer, limiting the potential for even
isolated elevated thunderstorms. For now, thunderstorms will be left
out of the forecast for late Friday and Friday evening.

However, with the frontal zone in the vicinity of the shortwave in
northwesterly flow, kept a mention of rain into the Friday night,
mainly across West Kentucky.

Although temperatures will rise close to and above normal for the
first part of this weekend, the weak cold air advection behind the
cold front will moderate temperatures on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Average to below average confidence in the long term due to lack of
model agreement and multiple precipitation events.

Small precipitation chances over the far western sections of our CWA
Sunday morning as weak upper level energy rounding the nose of an H5
ridge taps into relatively shallow moisture. No precipitation
expected Sunday afternoon as the aforementioned ridge builds across
the area snuffing out broad scale lift.

Sunday night should be dry as well but precipitation chances make
their way into the forecast on Monday with the approach of a frontal
system and deepening moisture. According to Forecast Builder,
precipitation probabilities increase Monday afternoon and evening,
then start to taper off late Monday night. The GFS is the most
aggressive with this feature and pushes the front completely across
our area while the ECMWF brings it through Monday night. Apparently
Forecast Builder is leaning heavily toward the ECMWF solution which
might be the best choice since upper level winds are nearly parallel
to the frontal boundary. Minimal instability available Monday into
Monday evening so included the mention of thunder there.

Tuesday morning looks dry in the wake of the front but with the
front becoming quasi-stationary just to our south, there could be a
small area of overrunning precipitation over our far western
counties Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation chances should push
southward a bit Tuesday evening with only small chances over the far
southwest corner of our CWA.

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the area should remain dry
under high pressure, but not for long. With the approach of a system
out of the plains, overrunning precipitation is possible over the
far western sections of the area Wednesday afternoon and evening.
With the approach of the warm front associated with the
aforementioned system, precipitation chances will cover most if not
all of the area late Wednesday night, then migrate north and east on
Thursday in the wake of the front.

Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 727 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Approaching mid level shortwave energy will tend to increase lift of
rather limited moisture, resulting in descending cigs overnight and
much of Fri. Shower activity is probable across the region after
sunrise, eventually resulting in MVFR cigs and intermittent MVFR
vsbys. Winds will be generally out of the south, veering slightly
with time, below 10 kts overnight and increasing to around 12 kts by
late Fri morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DB



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