Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141748

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1148 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

A low pressure system moving east across the Gulf Coast region
will generate some light rains across AR/TN into far southeast Mo
and wrn KY today into tonight. Amounts will generally be less than
1/10 inch as the bulk of the activity will stay to our south,
closer to the sfc low.

Thereafter, will see a return to dry and seasonably cool
conditions as high pressure works slowly east from the Plains.
Wed/Wed night. Warming trend will get underway Thu as the high
sinks southward toward the Gulf Coast and surface winds become
more southwesterly.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Pronounced 500 mb ridging will dominate the Ohio Valley through the
long-term period. This ridge will be accompanied by mostly dry
conditions and mild temperatures. There will be a couple of minor
exceptions, which are detailed below.

On Friday, surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf Coast region
will produce a southwest wind flow. Skies are forecast to be mostly
sunny under the upper-level ridge. Highs will be in the 60s.

On Saturday, a weakening 500 mb shortwave is forecast to meander
northeast into the Lower Ohio Valley region. The models have been in
good agreement on this scenario for the past few days. Most of the
guidance paints some light qpf, especially the 00z ecmwf. There is
plenty of model support for adding small rain chances to the
forecast. Will introduce a slight chance south of a kmdh to kevv
line. Highs will again be in the 60s.

On Sunday, the 500 mb ridge will restrengthen over the Ohio Valley
in the wake of the shortwave. Southerly low-level flow will bring
some increase in moisture, which should translate into partly sunny
skies. Model guidance has struggled to keep up with temps in recent
similar warm advection situations. In this case, will give guidance
the benefit of the doubt since cloudiness could be a factor. Will
stay near gfs and ecmwf mos highs in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, a 500 mb trough will advance east into the Plains. Most
model guidance indicates the trough will either slow or weaken or
both as it approaches the 500 mb ridge over the Ohio Valley region.
Given the slower trend in the models, dry conditions will be
forecast for parts of sw Indiana and west KY, with only slight
chance pops elsewhere. Forecast highs will remain mostly in the mid
to upper 60s, but this could be too conservative if widespread
cloudiness does not materialize.


Issued at 1148 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

The latest short term guidance brings light rain back northeast
across southeast Missouri through the afternoon. It could reach
KCGI and KPAH as early as 3 PM, but it is likely to remain VFR.
The light rains will push southeast of these areas around
midnight. A cold front will then move through the region
overnight. Between the light rains and the arrival of the cold
front, if clouds thin out or clear, some localized fog
development will be possible. Any fog will be scoured out quickly
by the cold front. Cannot rule out some lower VFR or MVFR ceilings
behind the front, into the morning hours at all sites. Some gusts
up to near 20kts will be possible with mixing in the mid to late




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