Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 050449

1149 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Issued at 1149 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Latest visible satellite shows clouds continuing to decrease from
the east, with some thinning beginning over extreme southeast
Missouri, and expect this trend to continue into this evening.
Relative humidity time heights indicate much of this low level
moisture will linger over the next few days across the PAH
forecast area. This will likely lead to some fog development
overnight, and cumulus development during the day. Models show
weak upper level ridging over our region into mid week, which will
keep us dry with a warming trend, with temperatures already above
normal by Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

Wednesday through Thursday should be dry as the models weaken a mid
level ridge across the area while surface high pressure moves east.
The models show a mid level wave developing over the northern tier
of states, dropping SE Thursday through Friday. The GFS and slightly
faster versions of the ECMWF were used for timing. Increasing
convective chances from NW to SE Thursday night, PoPs area wide
Friday with a front moving through. Models have it out of here by
Friday night. Kept slights SE 1/2 but that`s probably overdone. Also
removed all weekend PoPs given the models aggressive trend toward a
drier solution. Temps will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.


Issued at 1149 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015

An area of 4-5kft clouds has expanded over much of the region,
including KPAH, late this evening. It is expanding west and north
and should reach KCGI by the beginning of the period. It is just
west of KEVV, but it is not showing signs of expanding to the east
at this time. Will play the VFR ceilings through the night at KPAH
and KCGI, which with a persistent light breeze should result in no
fog formation. KEVV and KOWB should have a bit stronger winds
through the night and should not have a ceiling condition. Will
keep a mention of MVFR fog around sunrise there just to be safe.
Scattered cu and increasing high clouds will be the rule for




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