Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Dealing with Fall season frost or freeze issues can always be
headache, especially when dealing with marginal occurrences.

For now, do not have plans to issue a frost advisory for the Quad
state region for late tonight. Given expected surface dewpoint
depressions, antecedent evaporation, plant hardiness,
etc...coverage of significant frost potential should be quite
small overnight. Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of
West Kentucky should be the most protected, given a slower
departure of clouds, moisture, and winds through the evening
hours. This should slow the rate of temperature loss enough to
inhibit any significant frost development until just before

Further to the west, frost potential will be greater, but dry air
advection, insolation, etc...should limit heavier frost
accumulation between 4 am-7 am CDT time period over Southern IL,
Purchase Area of West KY, and Southeast MO. Duration and intensity
of patchy frost should limit any damage to most established
plants overnight.

Should surrounding NWS offices decide toward Frost Advisories, may
have to consider for collaborative reasons, but current thinking
is NOT to issue a Frost Advisory for late tonight into Saturday


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Stratus clouds that have been shrouding many area east of the MS
River overnight will gradually push east with H50 trof this
morning, leaving most areas of western KY/sw IN with plenty of
sunshine by noon. However, chilly high pressure nudging eat into
the MS River Valley will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s despite the return to sunshine. In fact, will not rule
out patchy frost later tonight as winds slacken underneath the
high pressure system and skies remain clear. Do not think it will
be a widespread event, so no headlines planned at this time. Will
cover with HWO product and possibly an SPS.

High pressure will begin to push a little farther south over the
weekend, allowing winds to turn swly and a warming trend to
commence. Highs in the 60s most locations on Saturday will be
followed by 70s on Sunday. Looking to be a very nice Fall

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is fairly high
due to good model agreement. The blended model initialization was
used with little to no changes.

From Monday through the early part of Wednesday, high pressure at
the surface will define our weather with slowly moderating
temperatures. Northwest flow aloft will keep us dry. High
temperatures will warm back above normal with readings in the lower
and middle 70s. Overnight lows will warm a little each night with
readings by Thursday morning in the lower to middle 50s.

High pressure will move off to the east by midweek allowing a cold
front to approach the region. This will bring a chance of showers
and isolated thunderstorms beginning Wednesday afternoon. Included
thunder where MUCAPE was present.


Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR forecast with this package. KEVV and KOWB should deal with
cold air stratocumulus until shortly after sunset, with
unrestricted ceilings and visibilities through the remainder of
the forecast period. Main period adjustments made to reflect
variations in wind speed and/or cloud cover.




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