Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140505

1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Showers trying to work into west sections of the area with a lead
vort seen on mosaic radar data moving NE toward central MO.
Convection also taking shape near the Arklatex region, and near
the main mid level wave over the plains, where the surface front
and low are also located. Will continue with increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Brief, locally heavy
rain possible tonight. Cannot rule out a strong or severe storm
mainly west of the Mississippi. Does not look like anything
significant in either case. Winds will remain gusty even outside of
convection ahead of the front. The front will move through Monday,
with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms pushing east.
Thunder mainly in the morning. Temperatures will drop through the
day post front, with rain lingering into the evening as the parent
upper level trof approaches then moves through. Will have to
linger precip beyond 06z Monday night based on collaboration and
some of the slower model solutions. Do not think it will last much
beyond 06z though. And, cannot rule out a few snow flakes within
the rain before it all ends. No impact. Quiet, cooler weather
returns Tuesday, with patchy frost possible Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

After a frosty morning, a sfc ridge of high pressure will be in the
process of moving off to the ne on Wed, as the mid level flow turns
swrly. This will allow low level return flow (sfc to 850 mb) to pick
up a srly direction by sunset. Sfc temps are expected to rise into
the middle 60s. The PAH forecast area should remain rain-free
through Thu evening as a mid level shrtwv and sfc frontal system
develops in the central Plains. The med range deterministic models,
particularly the ECMWF, have come into better agreement with
solutions for this system, though some differences in the location
of the sfc low (to our north) and forward speed of the system

Overnight Thu night, rain showers are expected to move into mainly
the wrn half of the region as the sharp trof continues to approach
from the west. Friday looks rather wet, with at least a quarter inch
of rainfall over the region, and up to a half inch possible in the
srn half of the region on average. Due to limited instability, tstms
may occur, but at this time we will forecast slight chance/isold
coverage. The GFS continues to be aggressive with the sharpness of
the mid level trof and the strength of the sfc low/ pressure
gradient. There is too much uncertainty in the predicted moisture
return/instability to speculate on severe wx potential. Fropa will
probably occur late Fri, bringing an end to any lingering showers
Fri night.

Uncertainty among the deterministic models increased after Fri. The
GFS continues to really wrap up shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow
right behind the system, unlike the GEM/ECMWF and the GEFS/ECENS/
NAEFS ensemble means. This would put the PAH forecast area under
cyclonic, then zonal flow aloft, while the ECMWF insists on a brief
period of ridging aloft Fri night through Sat night. It should be
dry nonetheless. The next possibility of pcpn in mainly the nwrn
third of the region might be on Sun, as the GFS/ECMWF depicted
another mid level shrtwv arriving out of the Pacific Northwest.

Air masses behind these fronts appear to be of Pacific origin,
therefore temps are expected to remain mild through Day 7.


Issued at 1205 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Shra/tstm will continue at KCGI/KPAH until around 09z, and
KEVV/KOWB until around 11z, with MVFR vsby possible with heavier
showers/storms. Shra will become scattered or even end for the
morning hours, then mainly light rain is expected to redevelop for
Monday afternoon, when MVFR conditions are likely. South winds at
10-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts will shift to the north at
KCGI/KPAH between 13z-16z, and KEVV/KOWB 19z-22z.




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