Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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690
FXUS63 KPAH 260739
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
239 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Heat Advisory will remain as is for today. Slight chance of
convection today as a warm front lifts NE. Not sure how activity
will pan out. Should be less coverage than yesterday overall. But
the EC has the chance back as far west as I-55, whereas the GFS
and NAM suggest more the NE 1/2. Will carry the slights generally
anywhere east of I-55 for now.

The NAM finally slowed down a bit with fropa Thursday. Think we
will have a Thursday night passage with PoPs peaking from late
Thursday afternoon north, to overnight south. Lingered PoPs into
Friday southern and far east sections. Dry, cooler and less humid
Friday night. Cannot rule out some severe weather, mainly a wind
threat with the convection Thursday/Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The long term period continues to look fairly quiet with not much
going on weather-wise in terms of precipitation. We are still
looking for below normal temperatures and much lower humidity for at
least the weekend.

Surface high pressure, centered over the Great Lakes region, will
push south during the day on Saturday into Saturday night. This will
result in an airmass change for the better. Dew points will drop
back down into the lower 60s, even into the upper 50s for some
locations. Temperatures will also be lowered and highs will be in
the lower to mid 80s for the weekend, which is well below normal.
Night time lows will drop down into the lower 60s...with a few
locales possibly falling into the upper 50s.

These dry conditions will linger into Monday as well. However, we
will see temperatures creeping back into the mid to upper 80s by
Monday and Tuesday as upper level heights start rising.

Models have been toying with the idea of possible rain chances in
parts of the area early next week. However, the haphazardness of the
QPF from model run to model run lately does not provide a strong
enough signal to introduce any substantial POPs at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

An isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible as we
progress through the forecast. For now the chance is not high
enough to include mention 15% chance range. We would likely see
some fog in the morning mainly at CGI and PAH. Other than a few
hours of mvfr in the morning with fog and low clouds as it lifts
expect vfr conditions outside of any storms.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088-089-092>094.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...None.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KYZ001>006.

&&

$$



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