Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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108
FXUS63 KPAH 241723
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Saturday provided another day of above mos guidance High temps,
with lower 90s nearly uniform across the FA. It won`t be a shock
if we see that again today, but there should be a little more
influence from the lower Mississippi river valley Low pressure
area aloft, so we`ll adjust temps to just maybe 1 degree above
guidance, vs 2-3 degrees above.

The GFS has been the most aggressive generating diurnally fueled
convection this pm, but the short res models do it as well. And
all the modeling suggests the area most likely to receive these
scattered cells will be the southwest 1/3 of the FA, so we`ll run
with slight chances there, with only minor massaging necessary.

Monday-Tuesday, the High actually strengthens its grip, and the
column becomes capped as we`lre stuck between Maria nearing the
Carolinas to the east, and the developing/approaching cold front
to the west. We`ll have a hot/dry forecast, likely at/above
guidance again, with Highs around 90/Lower 90s. Dew points/Lows
range from the mid-upr 60s each day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Models show the cold front located southeast of the PAH forecast
area by 12z Wednesday, and indicate minimal post frontal
precipitation chances.  Both GFS and ECMWF show very light QPF in
our far north counties Wednesday afternoon, with the entire area dry
after 00z Thursday.  Included some slight chances for showers and
storms north of of Interstate 64 from 18z to 00z Wednesday.

After 00z Thursday, high pressure will be building into the upper
midwest, gradually sliding east-southeast through the end of the
work week into next weekend.  Our region will be under the influence
of northerly flow through the time period.  High temperatures will
still reach the middle 80s on Wednesday, then a gradual cool down is
expected through Saturday.  Near seasonal readings Thursday and
Thursday night of highs in the upper 70s and lows in the lower to
middle 50s, will drop to around 5 degrees below normal by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Generally VFR conditions through midday Monday. Isolated showers
and storms this afternoon and early evening expected south of a
KMDH to K2I0 line. Winds will remain light. Some late night fog is
possible once again.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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