Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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606
FXUS63 KPAH 010751
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
251 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Scattered convection continued overnight mainly over parts of
southern IL, southwest IN and southeast MO. At 07Z, the front,
although hard to find, looks like it is entering our western
counties attm per the latest observation at KPOF. The front
should continue to make slow eastward progress the rest of the
overnight hours and be bisecting our CWA by around 12Z. Lingering
showers and isolated storms will likely be around as this occurs
but there should be a downward trend.

While there will probably be a brief lull this morning in additional
development, the HRRR/RAP suggests redevelopment ahead of the
frontal boundary by later this morning and into the afternoon hours,
mainly across southern IL, southwest IN and west KY. SPC has
highlighted parts of southeast IL/southwest IN in a marginal risk
for severe weather due to a strengthening winds in the mid levels as
an upper level impulse from the central Plains moves eastward into
the Great Lakes region today into this evening. Therefore, some of
the storms that develop may be capable of producing some severe
hail/wind.

The aforementioned front and upper level impulse should move east of
the area overnight, ending chances for precipitation.

The first in a series of two upper level waves will be right on the
heels of the departing front. While models have had some serious
issues resolving this upper pattern for the past several days now,
it appears there is at least some consistency between models that
Monday will not be as dry as we initially thought. The GFS/ECMWF
still indicate that the best chances for precipitation will be in
our southern areas. This has been the case all along so feel
comfortable raising POPs there a bit. Models differ on the amount of
moisture we have to work with and instability looks non existent so
POPS will remain low elsewhere and just showers mentioned.

The secondary impulse looks to come through on Tuesday and possibly
bring additional showers to the area. Right now, will go with just a
slight chance until we gain a better grasp on how these systems will
actually evolve.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Average confidence in the long term due to better model agreement.

At the beginning of the period long range models are showing a huge
upper low centered over the Great Lakes region. Models show a decent
H5 short wave rotating around the southwest flank of the low that
will dive southeast and push a cold front across the region on
Wednesday. There should be just enough deep layer moisture to
produce small precipitation chances over the northeast half of the
CWA with the passage of these features. With just enough upper level
energy and moisture left over, small precipitation chances may
linger into Wednesday evening over the far eastern sections of our
CWA.

The upper low is forecast to drift slowly southeast through the
latter half of the week ending up over the mid Atlantic seaboard by
the end of the period. Rising H5 heights/ridging aloft in its wake
will bring temperatures back to above normal and keep the region dry
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun May 1 2016

Convection has finally moved into the region late this evening,
but it does not pose much of a threat to any of the terminals.
Will keep VCSH going at all but KPAH for the first few hours of
the forecast just to hint at the possibility. Guidance has backed
off on the fog forecast, so will only have MVFR level fog at all
sites. The signal is still there for MVFR ceilings in the late
morning through midday. Into the evening, as the surface low
pushes east of the area, and the main upper trough moves through,
there will be another chance of convection near KEVV and KOWB.
Decided to play it safe with VCSH there again.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS



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