Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 032347

647 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Issued at 646 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Unseasonably cool air remains anchored over the area today. Strong
high pressure was centered over Quebec with a ridge extension all
the way to the TX Gulf Coast. Upper low continues to spin over the
SE U.S. The high pressure system will weaken while mid level
ridging builds overhead with mid trop low centers off the SE
Atlantic Coast and across the SW U.S. We may see some light
showers or drizzle persist tonight, with westward movement. Will
keep PoPs fairly low, tapering off west of the Mississippi River.
May see a little drizzle Sunday morning. Otherwise will dry
things out, with a warming trend forecast Monday into Tuesday.
Generally followed a blend of the models, given respectable
agreement. For temps used a blend of persistence and the latest

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Early in the extended, surface high pressure will move from south
central Canada into the Great Lakes region, and a weak upper level
ridge will move across the lower Mississippi Valley.  This will keep
conditions dry across the PAH forecast area through Thursday.
Temperatures will remain a little above normal through Thursday, and
winds will shift back to the south Thursday ahead of our next
weather system.

As the upper level ridge weakens and the surface high moves east,
models show a cold front approaching the area Thursday night.  ECMWF
and GFS are initially in good agreement on timing, showing the front
just moving into northwest portions of the PAH fa by 12z Friday.
Beyond that, models diverge, with the ECMWF pushing the front and
associated precip right on through Friday.  GFS is slower and drier
with the frontal passage, but then shows a surge of moisture/precip
into the weekend with an upper level trof moving across our area.
There is a lack of consistency in the ECMWF, with the latest run
much wetter with the frontal passage.  GFS is more consistent with
the front and the weekend upper trof, so will lean more toward the

With models keeping QPF pretty light with the frontal passage, kept
pops Thursday night for our north and west counties in the slight to
low chance category with showers.  Went slight to low chance pops
for our entire area on Friday, and included a slight chance of
thunderstorms with models showing LIs near zero.  For Friday night
into Saturday, continued with slight chance pops for showers across
our entire area.  Temperatures will cool down to near seasonal


Issued at 646 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

Most of the bonafide shower activity has dissipated to the south
of the TAF sites early this evening. Will leave a VCSH in at KEVV
and KOWB just to be safe, but any impact should be minimal given
the prevailing MVFR ceilings. Those MVFR ceilings will prevail
for much of the night at all locations, and a drop to IFR levels
through the overnight hours is a strong possibility, especially at
KOWB. Some drizzle will also be possible at KOWB and KEVV late
tonight. The predominant signal in the latest guidance is for a
quick clearing trend by late morning Sunday. Went for it in the
forecasts, but it may be a bit fast.




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