Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271130 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Average confidence in the short term due to minor model disagreement
with two systems affecting the area.

At the time of this writing, a stationary frontal boundary lay just
to the south of our CWA. The boundary is forecast to lift back
northward as a warm front this morning as a system moves out of the
southern plains. This will produce overrunning (elevated) showers
and thunderstorms that will overspread the region between now and
daybreak.

There may be a break in the action from mid to late morning
depending how quickly we destabilize, but surface based showers and
thunderstorms should begin to develop this afternoon as a sharp
short wave pushes/pulls the cold front associated with the system
across the region. Forcing for ascent produced by the short wave and
frontal boundary combined with increasing instability and shear will
set the stage for a number of storms to become severe this afternoon
with damaging winds being the primary threat, large hail being the
secondary threat, and perhaps a tornado or two not out of the
question.

The front is expected to be approximately halfway across our CWA at
00Z (7 PM) this evening, so even though instability should be
waning a bit by then, the severe thunderstorm threat will likely
continue into the evening hours. In the wake of this system,
precipitation will diminish from west to east late tonight and
should be just east of our CWA by Tuesday morning.

The combination of surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft
should keep the area dry Tuesday and Tuesday night. With the
approach of yet another system out of the southern plains,
precipitation chances are forecast into the western sections of our
CWA on Wednesday, then overspread the remainder of the region
Wednesday night. Timing and coverage of this precipitation will
likely have to be adjusted as models come into better agreement with
time.

Temperatures will generally be 10 to 15 degrees above normal through
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Models are in better agreement on the track of our late week surface
low, taking it from southwest Missouri into central Illinois then
into the southern Great Lakes region.  Both the ECMWF and GFS have
it around the St. Louis area around 00z Friday, with the Canadian
about 6 hours slower.  This track and general timing has the
associated cold front moving across the PAH forecast area late
Thursday into Thursday night.  Along and ahead of the front, models
produce widespread precipitation Thursday into Thursday night, and
went with likely to categorical pops for showers.  Based on the
expected track of the low, we should have better instability across
our region, so increased thunderstorm possibilities from slight
chance to chance during the day Thursday, with slight chances into
Thursday evening.  Lingered some slight chances of thunder in our
eastern counties late Thursday night until the front moves east of
our area. Showers will taper off from west to east on Friday.

Surface high pressure centered north of the PAH forecast area and a
weak upper level ridge over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley
will give us dry conditions Friday night into at least early
Saturday night.  Models show an upper low moving toward the region
on Sunday and included some chances for showers.

South winds ahead of the cold front will give us unseasonably warm
temperatures Thursday into Thursday night.  Cooler air will filter
in behind the front, and daytime highs will return to near seasonal
for Friday through Sunday, with overnight lows still a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Showers and thunderstorms expected through the first half of the
period with the approach and passage of a frontal boundary. A few
storms may become severe. VFR conditions expected for the most
part, but could see brief MVFR conditions in showers/storms and
toward the very end of the period in wrap around clouds/moisture.
Southerly winds AOB 10 knots will swing around to the northwest
behind the front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RST


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