Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 152338
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Will maintain our Freeze Warning. No change with near calm winds,
clear skies and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will
result in a hard freeze some areas, with a good frost potential as
well, as high pressure moves across the area.

High pressure will be off to the east of the area Wednesday.
Return flow/waa will allow temps to moderate after a cool day
today. Quiet weather will continue Wednesday night through
Thursday. With lows in the upper 30s, maybe mid 30s sheltered
areas Wednesday night, cannot rule out patchy frost. Not enough
concern to headline at this time.

Upper trof is forecast to move through Thursday night. This
feature should trigger some shower activity across the area,
especially after midnight. Better chances will exist across the
NW 1/2 of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The start of the extended forecast period (Friday), from a model
perspective, appears to become more of an non-event compared to the
guidance last week. Although the forecast signal remains consistent,
the fast zonal flow moving across the Northern Pacific that
developed a couple of days ago is playing havoc with the timing of
minor, embedded shortwaves moving across the northern 1/3rd of the
U.S.

The aforementioned pattern change has placed the WFO PAH forecast
area in a quite variable weather regime, essentially caught in a
split flow.

The last 2 to 3 model runs of the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/GEM, as
well as GFS Ensembles and NAM/GFS standard deviations from normal
lean toward a mediocre return of moisture as the shortwave moves
through the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday. Although high PoPs were
have been the going trend (even up yesterday) for Friday, a
significant reduction to chance or slight chance category had to be
put in place today.

The system for Sunday and into Monday of next week becomes more
disorganized as the GEM/GFS/ECMWF handle the timing and phasing of
northern and southern stream shortwaves in a different manner. The
overall trend is a weaker and slower onset of precipitation into the
WFO PAH forecast area on Sunday. This is somewhat consistent with
earlier model runs and was considered with this package.

There is limited instability for both the Friday system, as well as
the system moving through on Monday. Added a limited spatial and
areal coverage of thunderstorms to these forecast periods, but do
not anticipate any widespread severe weather.

Temperature wise, the WFO PAH forecast area remains at or below
normal through Sunday, gradually warming above normal on Monday and
Tuesday as weak ridging moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 638 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Any lingering clouds over swrn IN and adjacent areas will dissipate
rapidly this evening, as winds go nearly calm and veer to the se
overnight. After daybreak, as the center of high sfc pressure moves
off to the east, the sfc pressure gradient will tighten a bit,
especially west of the MS River, yielding gusts above 15 kts in the
afternoon. The only clouds overnight and Wed will be thin cirrus.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DB








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