Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260710
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
210 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE PRIMARY NEAR TERM CONCERN IS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. THE WATCH IS SET TO EXPIRE SHORTLY...BUT AN ISOLATED
CELL OR TWO MAY STILL BEAR WATCHING. OTHERWISE STRATIFORM/POST
FRONTAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE. THIS INCLUDES IN THE NORTHERN PTNS OF
THE FA...WHERE A FLOOD WATCH EXISTS THRU 12Z.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AIR IS FORTHCOMING. POST FRONTAL TEMPS
WILL STAY IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS TODAY...THEN STRUGGLE THEIR WAY
IN/THRU THE 40S TMRW. SIMILARLY LOWS IN THE 30S TONIGHT WILL COOL
TO 20S FOR TMRW NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPS ANTICIPATED FA WIDE SO
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY FOLLOW. SATURDAY STILL RAW TOO WITH
40S/20S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SFC WILL KEEP US COOL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME ENERGY DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WHATEVER MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUICK HITTING AND LEAVE THE AFTERNOON DRY.

AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
50S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST MODEL WITH THE CANADIAN
BEING THE WETTEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMMENCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. NO REAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR IN THE LATEST DATA UNTIL MAYBE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A NW
FLOW PATTERN...THAT CAN AND WILL ULTIMATELY CHANGE. WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED BUT THERE IS NOT
A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL AT THIS POINT TO FEEL CONFIDENT ON RAISING
POPS ANY MORE.

DESPITE A RATHER COLD DAY ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PREDOMINANT RAINS ARE OCCURRING AND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE THE RULE OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM...WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. A
SHOWERY/MVFR DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF IT...EVEN IF OVERALL...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS NOW TAPPED OUT MUCH FURTHER THAN
EXPECTED. ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE FA AROUND THE
TIME OF THE SUNSET.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-
     084-085-088.

MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107.

IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



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