Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201137
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
637 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The short term period continues to be rather benign.

Today an upper level disturbance will push a cold front toward the
mid Mississippi valley. Models still not in good agreement on
how much precipitation, if any, will fall across our CWA this
morning. The NAM12 continues to indicate dry conditions with the
remainder of the models showing a variety of light precipitation
scenarios over all or part of our CWA this morning.

Initially all moisture and any precipitation generated will be
elevated with a fairly dry layer below, so little if any
precipitation is expected to reach the ground. As we transition
through the morning hours, the dry layer near the surface begins to
moisten up a bit but the upper levels begin to dry out. Neither
scenario is conducive to receiving measurable rainfall.

The best chances for precipitation this morning should be over the
northeast third of our CWA where moisture will be slightly higher.
With so much uncertainty, continued to keep POPS at a minimum.
Still expect precipitation chances to be south and east of our CWA
this afternoon.

The front is expected to cross our region tonight but with little to
no moisture to work with, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage.
In the wake of the front and through the remainder of the short term
period, surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The long term period starts off with surface high pressure centered
over the area and weak ridging aloft, but with a sharp short wave
approaching from the central plains.

Latest model runs now handling the evolution of the short wave
totally different from it`s output this time last night. Last night
models showed the short wave becoming closed off and suppressed to
the south by ridging in it`s wake. Now models are showing the short
wave diving southeast across our CWA Thursday night but weakening
considerably before reaching our area with no QPF expected due to a
lack of moisture in the lower levels.

In the wake of the short wave, high pressure at the surface and
ridging aloft should keep things dry with near normal temperatures
through at least Saturday. Saturday night models bring a back door
front across the area but with ridging aloft and lack of moisture,
it`s passage should be of no consequence other than a wind shift.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 637 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Mid level clouds and spotty light showers expected across the
region this morning well ahead of an approaching cold front. Once
mid level clouds move out by late morning, sct-bkn040 cu will
develop, dissipating by 02z. Southwest winds at 6 to 12 kts
through the day will shift to the northwest between 00z and 04z
with the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST




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