Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270540
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1140 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Dense fog is approaching the northern Red River Valley, so went
ahead and added that last segment into the dense fog advisory. The
dense fog may continue to expand a little further west, so will
just have to watch it overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Issue tonight will be fog in parts of central MN. The remaining
snow pack and cold ground in the Wadena/Park Rapids area and areas
just south and east is keeping the low clouds and fog in tact.
Visibilities likely to go down to widespread 1/4sm or less in this
area tonight into Sunday morning as a moist airmass remains over
the area and winds will be fairly light. Thus coord with WFO MPX
and issued a dense fog adv thru 15z Sunday for Wadena/Park Rapids
and adjacent areas just to their west in E Becker and E Otter Tail
counties.

It is likely low clouds and fog will advect north into Bemidji as
well tonight though they have cleared out. Will have mention of
fog north into Beltrami county and Lake of the Woods county and a
bit west into areas just east of the RRV valley overnight. Not out
of the question Bemidji may drop to 1/4sm as well for an extended
period but more uncertain there so left them out of advisory.

Otherwise mainly clear tonight with some thin cirrus moving in.
Rather light winds so temps will drop back into the 20s.
Southeasterly sfc flow increases Sunday but 925 mb temps are quite
a bit cooler (2-3C vs 6C as today) and thus a tad cooler. Also
increasing high clouds in the aftn.

Fast moving area of moisture will spread north quickly Sunday and
into far SE ND by 00z Mon. All liquid.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

Sunday night through Friday...

The main story for the upcoming work week will be a slow moving
storm system set to impact the area beginning Sunday evening and
continue through most of the week.

The most recent runs of the GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian are in fairly
good agreement with the surface low centered across eastern South
Dakota overnight Sunday and into Monday morning. The low will
propagate northward throughout the day on Monday and center itself
along the Red River Valley. This slow moving system will continue to
spin across the area and may even retrograde a bit back towards
central North Dakota. After 00z Tuesday, models begin to diverge on
their solutions but all generally agree on a slightly more westward
track than previous runs. This should allow the colder air to move
into the forecast area even later and keep the greatest winter
weather impacts out across western and central North Dakota.
Therefore, the current forecast calls for plain rain across the
majority of the area through Monday with the exception of out around
the Devils Lake basin. Model soundings do depict a brief period
early Monday of some mixed precipitation, mainly west of the valley.
With the center of the low continuing to wobble around the area,
things look to change to snow (or at least a rain/snow mix) Monday
night before warming back up into the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday
with more rain. The low will then very slowly make its way towards
the upper Great Lakes and change things over to all snow for good
Tuesday night. An inch or two of accumulation will be possible for
the areas that see the most liquid precipitation to start the event
(generally along and east of the valley). The far west/Devils Lake
basin could see a bit more but will be highly dependent upon the
track of the low which will continue to be monitored. Light snow
chances will linger through the end of the work week with not much
for accumulation except for maybe a tenth of an inch or two here or
there.

The relatively mild temperatures early in the week will drop back
down to around normal values (or maybe just a tad warmer) as the low
pulls away by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016

The dense fog has now made it into every TAF site but KDVL. Models
show the fog dissipating by mid Sunday morning as wind speeds
increase. Not sure if it will totally go away or it will just lift
into a stratus layer in some areas. Otherwise, light rain
associated with the next weather system will begin to move into
most of the TAF sites by Sunday evening. Think it will stay as
rain through this TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for NDZ008-016-027-030-
     039-053.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Godon



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