Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 272349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM STRETCHING FROM NEAR KFMN SOUTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR KABQ. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PEA TO PENNY SIZE
HAIL WILL FALL FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD
TO LCLY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WRN MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO
CATRON COUNTY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG...SLOW MOVING STORMS ON
TAP FOR SUNDAY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE SEASONAL TRANSITION TO THE MONSOON UNDERWAY...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INCREASED MOISTURE HAS INVADED THE
STATE...AND THIS WILL KEEP INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STORMS
WILL TEND TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SOME AREAS DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT OF STORMS. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SUBTLE MOTION TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE MORE DYNAMIC SHIFTS HAVING BEEN NOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. WESTWARD PUSH OF
MOISTURE STALLED JUST EAST OF THE ARIZONA BORDER WITH GALLUP
STILL INDICATING NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
THAN THEIR NEIGHBOR AT GRANTS WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT
AND ALMOST 10 DEGREE HIGHER DEWPOINT. SOME BETTER MOISTURE POOLING
HAS ALSO INVADED THE GILA TO MOGOLLON RIM AREA. MANY CENTRAL ZONES
OF NM ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND SOME
FAVORABLY ORIENTED HIGH TERRAIN AREAS ARE EXPLOITING THE UPSLOPE.
THESE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS ARE PRODUCING SEVERAL HEALTHY STORMS WITH
SUFFICIENT INFLOW AND DIRECTIONALLY VEERING WINDS ALOFT FOR
SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS. STORMS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAVE BEEN MOVING AT A QUICKER PACE...BUT THE CELLS FARTHER
SOUTH HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. THESE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND WHILE NO BLATANT
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT ARE SEEN...STORMS WILL STILL LIKELY CARRY ON
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND PERHAPS BEYOND MIDNIGHT AS BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OCCUR AMIDST MESOSCALE COLD POOLS.

EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ON SUNDAY. HEALTHY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LINGER AND SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
RETAIN A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT FOR MANY WESTERN TO CENTRAL
ZONES...RESULTING IN UPSLOPE ON FAVORABLY ORIENTED SOUTH SOUTHEAST
HIGH SLOPES AND FACES. THETA-E PROGS AT 600MB PAINT AXES OF HIGHER
VALUES OF 337-345K ACROSS BOTH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE HIGHEST POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT. A LATE
BLOOMING AREA OF HIGHER THETA-E IS THEN DEPICTED BY
MODELS...SAGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
OF THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL
COULD BE AN ARTIFACT OF A WEAK WIND SHIFT ADVERTISED IN THAT AREA.
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WILL STILL BE SEEING A SUBTLE WARMING
TREND WHICH WOULD OFFSET THE SUBTLE DRYING OF DEWPOINTS
HERE...BOTTOM LINE BEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...MORE-SO THAN
TODAY.

AS MONDAY ARRIVES...THE SURFACE FLOW WOULD BEGIN TO SEE MORE
ALTERATIONS. MANY WESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES WOULD BEGIN TO LOSE
THEIR SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT SYNOPTIC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE NATION WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN STEERING ANOTHER PUSH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW INTO NM. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WOULD BE ON HAND FOR
STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THETA-E PROGS REMAIN
HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES.

FLOW WHIPS AROUND TO THE SOUTH FOR ESSENTIALLY ALL ZONES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE SOME SMALL RISES...AND MOISTURE
WILL AGAIN BE RECYCLED...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS REDUCED SOME.
THINGS GET A BIT MORE MESSY AND AMBIGUOUS INTO THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD. WHILE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST NORTHWEST OF
NM...SOME WIND SHIFTS COULD OCCUR INTO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD
AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LOOK FOR THE PATTERN TO REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH SOME DAYS MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS.  FOR
TODAY...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS.
THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TAKING STORMS
INTO THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.

THIS WILL BE THE STORY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH MORE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO THE S OR SW. BY MONDAY...STORMS
SHOULD ALSO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY NUDGES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY MORNING...CREATING A FOCUS
FOR STORM ACTIVITY.

OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWN A FEW PERCENT
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...BUT WILL STEADY OUT FOR
MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR LOOKS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO
NM. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS. HOWEVER... ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND FOR
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE BREAK IN THE ACTION ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. STORM
COVERAGE WILL RAMP BACK UP MID TO LATE WEEK. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO NE NM ONCE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS YET ANOTHER OVER
THE WEEKEND. EACH ONE WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THAN THE LAST...THUS STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK DUE TO WEAK TRANSPORT
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION IN THIS AREA WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
WHERE SOMEWHAT DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS EXIST...ALLOWING FOR
HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS...AND THUS...FAIR OR BETTER VENTILATION.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99


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