Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 112200
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 PM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will move across eastern NM tonight and
continue across central NM on Sunday. As the front moves into
southeastern NM, it will interact with low level moisture and bring
low clouds and areas of light drizzle to the area on Sunday. High
clouds will stream across NM from the west, bringing mostly cloudy
conditions to the rest of the state Sunday. Low clouds and patchy
fog will develop across southeastern NM Sunday night into Monday
morning. Skies will become partly cloudy across the entire area Monday
afternoon, as drier air moves in from the west. High temperatures
Monday will rebound to above normal, except near normal in the
southeast. A lee surface trough will form Tuesday with breezy and
warmer conditions. A weak backdoor cold front will bring slightly
cooler weather to the eastern plains Wednesday. High temperatures
will be above normal with increasing wind Thursday, as a strong
surface lee trough is expected in eastern NM.

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&&

.DISCUSSION...
No pattern change in sight for the next 7 days across central and
northern NM. There will be a few backdoor cold fronts which affect
the area late tonight into Sunday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The first front will move into eastern NM this evening and across
central NM Sunday around midday Sunday. The front will interact with
higher low level moisture in place across southeastern NM during the
day on Sunday. Moisture lifted by the front will produce low clouds
and areas of light drizzle through Sunday afternoon in southeast NM.
High temperatures across the eastern plains Sunday will fall to near
normal to 5 degrees below normal. High clouds streaming eastward from
the eastern Pacific will spread across the entire area Sunday through
Monday creating a high broken to overcast cloud cover. The increased
cloud cover will depress high temperatures slightly Sunday, but a
clearing trend Monday afternoon will push high temperatures well
above normal for most of the region. The exception will be in
southeast NM, where morning low clouds and patchy fog will depress
afternoon highs.

A fairly strong lee surface trough Tuesday will produce breezy
conditions and mix warmer temperatures down to the surface. Highs
Tuesday will range from 10 to 15 degrees above normal across the
entire area. A weak backdoor cold front Tuesday night into midday
Wednesday will stall and dissipate near the foothills of the central
mountains, as the surface high to the northeast moves rapidly to the
east. Expect lighter winds Wednesday with winds veering to the south
across the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon. Highs Wednesday will
return to near normal behind the front, while highs elsewhere will
remain above normal.

Another surface lee trough in eastern NM Thursday will bring breezy
west-southwest winds and slight warming to the region. A weak upper
level trough is forecast over western CO by the GFS Thursday, but it
is not resolved by the ECMWF. Slight chances for light rain and snow
showers in the northwest mountains are included in the forecast, but
confidence is still low. Temperatures may cool slightly Friday with
the ECMWF showing a weak Pacific cold front crossing NM and the GFS
not showing a frontal passage, but indicating cooler temperatures
aloft. With the uncertainty, Friday looks cooler but still above
normal for mid November.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A back door cold front will move southward through the eastern
plains tonight and into the central valley Sunday morning, but only
modest east canyon wind gusts are expected. In the wake of the
front, there will be cooler temperatures on Sunday across central
and eastern areas.

High temperatures will rebound a few to 14 degrees on Monday as a
ridge of high pressure crosses. However, temperatures will trend
downward again across the northwest on Tuesday with the arrival of
another Pacific cold front, and areawide Wednesday behind another
back door cold front.

GFS and ECMWF still differ on the timing of an upper level trough
during the latter half of the coming work week, with the GFS
swinging the base of the upper trough east of NM by 12Z Friday, and
the ECMWF holding off until Friday afternoon. Either way breezy to
windy conditions are looking more likely on Thursday, and these
winds could linger into Friday if the ECMWF is right. With the
trough approaching temperatures should begin to cool across the west
on Thursday, then areawide on Friday behind another Pacific cold
front.

Ventilation-wise, poor ventilation should become fairly widespread
across central and eastern areas on Sunday behind tonight`s back
door cold front. Ventilation will gradually improve many places
early in the coming work week, only to fall again on Wednesday
behind the Tuesday/Tuesday night cold fronts.  Widespread excellent
ventilation is then expected Thursday as winds strengthen, before
readings plummet Friday behind the next Pacific cold front.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Like yesterday low clouds are stubbornly gripping the lower Pecos
River Valley around ROW today. Cirrus blowing off the Sacramento
Mountains continues to shield them from the sun slowing their
retreat. However, the base of an upper level trough will cross from
the west this afternoon shifting surface winds out of the west
southwest by late afternoon and advecting drier air into the valley.
The upper trough will send a back door cold front southward through
the eastern plains tonight, and these will usher areas of low clouds
with IFR and MVFR conditions to northeast and east central areas.
Conditions should improve toward mid morning Sunday.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  65  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  25  62  29  65 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  30  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  22  69  29  71 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  21  68  27  70 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  25  66  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  28  69  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  40  76  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  20  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  38  59  41  63 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  32  57  35  64 /   0   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  26  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  18  49  30  53 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  14  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   5
Taos............................  21  59  27  63 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  28  56  33  65 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  33  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  35  58  38  62 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  33  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  66  43  70 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  36  68  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  38  66  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  32  68  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  38  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  39  71  41  72 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  35  61  36  66 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  34  62  37  66 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  30  63  31  70 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  33  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  37  64  39  67 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  43  70  43  70 /   0   0   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  35  65  37  67 /   0   0  10   5
Capulin.........................  27  55  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  28  56  30  70 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  28  58  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  30  55  33  67 /   0   0   0   5
Clayton.........................  35  57  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  31  56  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  39  61  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  36  61  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  38  63  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  40  61  41  66 /   0  20  10  10
Portales........................  38  61  41  66 /   0  20  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  38  61  39  65 /   0  10   5   5
Roswell.........................  43  64  44  65 /   0  10  10   5
Picacho.........................  44  62  42  67 /   0   5  10   5
Elk.............................  41  61  40  68 /   0   0  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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