Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 160534 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail overnight with clearing clouds. However,
cu should develop fairly early across portions of NM. The HRRR is
indicating a isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing across south central and southeast NM by mid day and
continuing through the afternoon. KROW will likely be impacted,
though can`t completely rule out KTCC as well. Otherwise, less wind
is in store than Friday across the rest of the area.



.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017...
The westerlies have kicked-in and the upper high has sunk well south
of New Mexico, meaning a seasonal transition is underway.
Temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of normal
through the weekend, though with less wind than today. Moisture will
increase over the area Sunday into Monday, resulting in increasing
chances for showers and storms. Much of the moisture from Tropical
Storm Normal will likely remain south of our area, so rain chances
for Sunday through Monday will not be as good as previously forecast.
Tuesday through Friday is looking dry and breezy to windy with
little to no chance for rain.


PWATs are trending down and will continue down through Saturday as
drier air works east around the base of the upper level trough
currently moving into the Rockies. The combination of less moisture
and slightly cooler temperatures is making for a down day in terms of
convection, with only isolated showers and storms anticipated across
southern portions of our area this afternoon/evening. A lee side
trough is deepening currently and winds have picked-up, with gusts up
to 37kts reported earlier at KLVS and KCQC. Winds will trend down
Saturday, which looks to be another down day for storms.

PWATs are still expected to trend up Sunday into Monday, but not as
much as forecast the past couple of days due to moisture from
Tropical Storm Normal being shunted off to the east by the
westerlies. A broad troughing pattern is in place across the
Intermountain west, which looks to persist for the foreseeable
future. Still, look for an increase in storm coverage late Sunday
and Monday, but significant drying by Tuesday will bring an end to
rain chances for all but southern New Mexico. Tuesday through
Thursday is looking dry and breezy to windy, with temperatures
generally near normal central and west and above normal east thanks
to downslope winds. Forecast confidence on a solid cold front late
next week is decreasing given model run-to-run trends and differences
between the 12z GFS and ECMWF by next Friday. The differences
between the two solutions are even greater going into next weekend.



Winds have picked up over NM as a deep trough has moved over the
northern Rockies. A few places have already reported 30-45kt winds
today, including Clines Corners and Las Vegas both recording gusts
over 40kts. Lower elevations should see higher winds mixing down a
bit later in the afternoon. Breezy W-SW winds will continue into the
early evening hours before the bdry layer decouples tonight. A few
quick moving showers are possible across the far SE, however any
wetting precip should avoid the ABQ Fire Wx Zones. Persistence
forecasting for Saturday with a drop in wind speeds as the trough
shoots NE out of the region.

On Sunday, the synoptic set up has Norma inching towards the
southern tip of the Baja, an upper high over the Gulf moving west,
and another short-wave trough setting up over CA. This will help
increase southerly flow of increased moisture keeping the lower RGV
and eastern plains from drying out. This moisture will increase the
chances for wetting precip. over central and eastern NM. Any storms
to develop will be quick to the NE. This set up will keep sfc
moisture going into the RGV through Monday as well before westerlies
begin to dry out conditions Tuesday. The ECMWF continues to be
stubborn keeping Norma offshore of the Baja long enough for it to
lose its tropical characteristics before shooting to the E, south of
NM by the middle of next week. This solution would be a much drier
scenario for NM compared to the GFS.

MixHgts will remain fair through the forecast period, with VentRates
remaining mostly excellent across the state with a few periods of
fair mixed in.

Models bring in a deep trough over the western U.S. by mid-week with
drier westerlies expected to mix down and dry things out with
critical fire conditions not out of the question especially over the
west. Certainly breezier to windy conditions are expected for the
middle portions of next week. A few days of this next week could
quickly dry out remnant sfc moisture from the monsoon season.





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