Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 261800
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NW SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO...ON OCCASION...NUMEROUS
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND NORTH NM AND...TO A LITTLE
LESSER DEGREE...CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR TAF
SITE TSRA IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT GUP AND FMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z AND
MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ABQ...AEG...SAF AND PERHAPS LVS. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WND GUSTS TO 40KT.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...

IN TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON FASHION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CLOSE BY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO.
DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN ADDITION...A SMALLER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE AUGUST. INTO THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOME AS THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT LEAVES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD
THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SWATH OF
MOISTURE INTACT OVER NEW MEXICO FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...NOT ONLY IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. INTO
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FAVORING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF THE STATE AND A SUBTLE COOLING EFFECT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER CO AND NM...AND
IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD SOME TODAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A DISTINCT PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
AZ...AND THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH
AS IT REPOSITIONS SOUTHWARD. A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AZ WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THERE. VALUES
INTO NM ARE MUCH MORE MODERATE...PUSHING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SAN JUAN BASIN IN NW NM. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER NM ALONG WITH
BATCHES OF MODERATE...MOSTLY STRATIFORM...RAIN ALSO TRAILING THE
PERTURBATION ALOFT. EXPECT A CLOUDY AND RAINY START TO THE
MORNING FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF NM AS THIS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD...AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY STUNT THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
LATCHING ON TO THIS AS MANY CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES HAVE DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURE PROGNOSES. HARD TO ARGUE THIS...SO SOME DOWNWARD
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TODAY`S FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE HIT THE NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES THE HARDEST AS FAR AS HIGH/LIKELY POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS OF TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER AND AN INABILITY TO DESTABILIZE TO PRODUCE DEEP
MOIST CONVECTIVE CELLS.

THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWESTWARD...SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE BOOTHEEL OF NM BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ILL-
DEFINED...LOSING ITS CONSOLIDATED STATE. THE MORE NOTABLE
ALTERATIONS TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN NE NM WHERE NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WOULD
BE DEVELOPING TODAY WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CO/NM INTO THURSDAY
WITH A KINK DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A BACK DOOR FRONT ON THE MOVE.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE FAVORED AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION AS
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE UNDERGOING STRETCHING AND
MODIFICATION AMIDST THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED
MORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS TO LATCH ONTO A MORE
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THIS MODIFICATION...EXTENDING THE PLUME
FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO...WITH NW WINDS ALOFT IN NE NM AND A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.

AS FRIDAY UNFOLDS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM...LIKELY ADVANCING WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD POINT TO THE
EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS BEING FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...BUT THE GFS ALSO INSISTS
THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. BY THIS TIME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADLY BE IN PLACE OVER NM AND THE GREATER
SOUTHWEST.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST POINTS TOWARD A RECYCLE MODE FOR CONVECTION
OVER NM WITH NO NEW MOISTURE INTRUSIONS ON HAND. HOWEVER AS NEXT
WEEK UNFOLDS...THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW COULD
SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A LONGER SUSTAINED
TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH THRU ARIZONA TODAY THEN OVER FOUR
CORNERS AND NRN NM TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH WETTING RAIN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM MOTION TODAY GENERALLY TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...AND STORM MOTION WOULD BE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...SO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS SUCH AS
THE RGV...AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AS WELL.
SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE NOW
APPEARS A BIT WEAKER AND THE NLY WIND SHIFT DOESN/T REACH THE NE
PLAINS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
ENERGY...REACHING THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND GUIDANCE
NOW BRINGS AN EAST WIND INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FORECAST FOR THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOL FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE RGV
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST MTS.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT BACK OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL HAVE A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE HIGH CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING
RAIN COVERAGE. THIS MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON
HOW DEEP THE WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES. AS A CONCESSION...EXTENDED
FORECAST POPS ARE NOW HIGHER WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WON/T BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  FOR THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A
BIT ABOVE THE NORM THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX
HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
VENT RATES MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DIMINISHED RATES FRIDAY OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR
WEST AND NORTH. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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