Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202234
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW BREEZES CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD
FOR TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  50  23  50 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  18  51  17  46 /   0   5   5   0
CUBA............................  18  48  19  44 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  18  49  20  50 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  17  48  17  47 /   0   5   0   5
GRANTS..........................  18  51  19  50 /   0   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  25  48 /   0  10   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  29  59  30  60 /   0   5  10   5
CHAMA...........................  11  46  13  43 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  26  46  25  44 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  25  48  26  47 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  48  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  20  39  21  37 /   5   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   2  44   5  42 /   5   0   0   5
TAOS............................  15  47  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  22  49  23  49 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  23  49  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  29  48  29  46 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  23  50  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  29  53  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  31  55  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  56  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  56  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  25  55  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  58  30  59 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  49  26  48 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  22  52  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  13  54  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  25  51  26  49 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  26  52  27  51 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  31  57  30  54 /   0   0  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  23  53  25  55 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  17  54  20  56 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  18  54  22  57 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  52  24  54 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  24  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  30  63  35  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  31  64  34  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  65  35  65 /   0   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  31  64  38  62 /   0   0  10  10
PORTALES........................  31  65  38  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  30  64  36  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  30  64  37  65 /   0   0  10  10
PICACHO.........................  32  62  37  60 /   0   0  10   5
ELK.............................  33  60  36  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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