Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151747
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ALL TERMINALS VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

01

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...852 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE FREEZE WARNING AND HARD FREEZE WARNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST PUNCTUATED BY A FAST MOVING
MIDWEEK DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST TO MAKE ROOM FOR A WEEKEND
WEST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM ON A SLOW TRIP ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A
MIDWEEK COOL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SLIDE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BOUNCING EITHER SIDE OF MID APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD COMBINING WITH DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS NEW MEXICO KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR...AND ALLOWING DROP OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
OVER MUCH OF THE EAST...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP A SOLID
RADIATIONAL INVERSION PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT FOR AN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM FEATURES EMERGING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
PLAUSIBLE CONSENSUS BACKS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE BUCKLES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN DIGS TRAILING BLIP INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
REESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY THURSDAY MIDDAY...AS BROAD SLOPPY
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO ENCROACH ON WESTERN
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SHEARING MOMENTS IN SHORT
SUPPLY...TROUGH AXIS WILL COLLAPSE INTO POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRAILING WEAK RIDGE PUSHING OVER
THE STATE ON MONDAY. UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK. TIMING IS OFF
ON THE AGREEMENT...AS GFS SOLUTION LEADS BRINGING A TIGHT CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN AGGRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A
MORE SHEARED...AND LESS OF THE GFS DIG N LIFT...SOLUTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW ON NEW MEXICO
IN PASSING. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINTING TO AN UNSETTLED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING TILTED THAT WAY
PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM.

FOR TODAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH STRONG MORNING
RADIATIONAL INVERSION AND BROAD COVERAGE OF FREEZING AND BELOW
TEMPERATURES...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TODAY. WITH DOME CORE SHIFTING INTO THE HEART OF
TEXAS...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IMPARTED TO SURFACE WINDS WILL PUSH
MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD RETURN NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...AND LEAVE COOLER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SPOTS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY. DRY AND
SUNNY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MEET UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAGS FOR NOW. WARM
DAYTIME WILL SET UP A MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BUCKLING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO BACKING TO
ZONAL AS SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
STATE. SOME COOLER AIR WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO A FEW DEGREES WARM ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CLIPPING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL TOUCH OFF SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS INTERSTATE
40 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUMMIT SNOW
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OUT OVER RATON
PASS AND INTO WESTERN UNION COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SUMMITS...AND
EASTWARD OVER RATON RIDGE. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO
LOCAL ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND BELOW. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH A LOCAL
FIRE DANGER CONCERN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL KEEP NORTHERN SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY...AS BULK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD PUSH WILL DROP EASTERN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE CHILLER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
WEST. LIGHT WINDS...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WESTWARD
BULGING PUSH OF COOL AIR..AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF INBOUND PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO...AS DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE LOW OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THURSDAYS COOL
DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID
APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TUG MOISTURE
AND IMPROVE SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BETTER THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...CALIFORNIA SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH ARIZONA AND KNOCKING ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WILL
BRING WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...WITH COVERAGE REDUCING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
TRAILING SHORTWAVE BLIP IN BROAD WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
DYNAMICS ACTIVE. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NEW MEXICO ON
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE SQUEAKING INTO THE TEXAS BORDER COUNTRY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE.
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY WILL ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD RISING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODERATE TO STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...BECOME WESTERLY AND GENERATE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AIR MASS IS
PLENTY DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID
APRIL AND MODELS ARE NOW SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH HAINES INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH SUCH A
MARGINAL EVENT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HIT RH
AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE WIND MAXIMUM ALOFT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT A MAINLY DRY SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NW NM LIMITING THE STRONG
WIND DURATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
POINT WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105.

COLD FRONT DROPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO ALL AREAS THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST. THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN VENTILATION RATES IN THE
FAIR TO GOOD RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW BRINGS UP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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