Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 101757 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The mid-level high pressure system will begin to shift SE of NM today
allowing better moisture and a more traditional monsoon flow to
develop. SCT to ISOLD storms will generally move toward the northeast
around 10-20 mph, except for NMRS cells over the southwest mountains,
and also across the NE corner (where cells should move more toward
the E or SE). Storms across the NE will be capable of large hail and
damaging winds with an ISOLD tornado threat. Cells will probably
cluster this aftn and evening, and an organized line will be possible
across the NE. A back door cold front will push southwestward
through the E plains tonight into Friday morning, allowing low clouds
with IFR and MVFR conditions into the NE quarter of the state.
Greatest confidence in TAF site flight category restriction is at
LVS Friday morning, with less confidence at TCC. Storms will increase
in coverage on Friday with locally heavy rain and wet microbursts



.PREV DISCUSSION...1102 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017...
Upped/Adjusted pops for late this morning/through this evening for
current radar as well as forecast model trends. Steering flow would
take any cells which develop over the higher terrain to the west into
the RGV, so the middle and lower RGV zones now have at least isold
pops. NAM12 pretty darned unstable across the se half of the
forecast area late this afternoon, especially ne NM. Updated ZFP has
been transmitted.


.PREV DISCUSSION...233 AM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017...
Another round of active weather over the NE plains tonight, with
increased storm coverage expected over the southwest. A few storms
over the NE could become severe with frequent lightning and large
hail. Increased storm coverage Friday over much of NM, with another
backdoor front cooling off the NE plains. Afternoon storms will
continue over much of NM through the weekend with localized flash
flooding concerns likely. A drying trend at least for western NM
starting next week.


An area of showers has persisted into the early morning hours over
the NE plains. Some low clouds and areas of patchy fog are also
possible over portions of Colfax and Union counties this morning.
Temperatures trend up back to normal across the eastern plains as
winds turn back out of the south. The upper high will continue to
reposition itself over western TX today, with an uptick in monsoon
moisture into SW New Mexico. Abundant moisture, decent bulk shear
40-50kts, and CAPE 2000-3500 J/kg will again allow for the potential
of severe storms in eastern CO, stretching down into far NE New
Mexico this evening.

Monsoon moisture will wrap around the western edge of the upper high
fully Friday and through the weekend all the way through western NM.
Another backdoor front will cool highs off for the NE plains Friday,
as well as prompting another round of active weather there. Both the
GFS and NAM12 look to consolidate storm activity along the NW
periphery of the high, accompanied by what appears to be a weak
short-wave over NE New Mexico. Persistent storm activity across the
Sangre`s, middle RGV, down through the SW mtns, could produce
localized flash flooding Friday afternoon/evening.

Good monsoon flow continues Saturday and Sunday with healthy crops
of afternoon storms over NM. Models continue to show an upper trough
entering the NE Pacific, but this feature for the 2nd night in a row
does not reach south far enough to help enhance monsoon flow over us
to its fullest potential. Instead now, the GFS tries to develop a
closed low over CA/NV by Tuesday, with the Canadian and ECM keeping
the trough more open. Each model has this feature bringing in drier
westerly flow, shutting down convective activity over western NM
early next week. The GFS is the most depressing this far out, with
all of the west drying out, while the Canadian and ECM at least keep
the SW in the action.


While western New Mexico has undergone some drying the past couple
of days, increased moisture should return today and into the next
few days with shower and thunderstorm coverage also trending up.

Moisture can already be seen increasing in south central to
southwestern zones early this morning via satellite and radar with
showers and storms already developing. These will expand and spread
north northeast through the day, being the primary storm focus
through mid afternoon. The moisture will not quite spread into the
San Juan basin of northwest NM today, and lower dewpoints there will
keep RH in the teens this afternoon. Elsewhere minimum humidity
values will generally be within a 25 to 40 percent range. Highest
Haines values will stretch over the west central zones and to some
extent the northern mountains where values of 5 will be found amidst
the drier, but still unstable air. A back door front will then enter
northeastern NM late this afternoon into the overnight,
reinvigorating storm activity with hefty downpours and possibly
severe hail/winds.

With high pressure over central TX on Friday, better moisture will
continue to be steered into NM while the aforementioned back door
cold front washes out over our forecast area. This will increase the
coverage of storms area wide with more widespread wetting rainfall
into Friday evening. On Saturday and Sunday, high pressure will move
closer to the Big Bend area and weaken, but plenty of moisture will
be available to recycle and keep a healthy coverage of storms going
in NM. The GFS model introduces another back door cold front to
northeastern NM on Monday, but the European model is less enthused.
Both models draw the upper level high farther east into TX through
the middle of next week while an upper level trough pushes into the
Great Basin of the western states. Near to just slightly below
normal temperatures are projected Friday through the middle of next
week with effective overnight humidity recoveries. Humidity readings
even remain elevated in the afternoons through the weekend, but some
gradual daytime drying is introduced toward the middle of next week
as a dry slot aloft precedes the Great Basin trough. This will raise
Haines indices in northwestern to north central NM, but no large
scale or long duration wind concerns are expected through the
forecast period, but rather just localized thunderstorm outflows.





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