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000
FXUS65 KABQ 160920
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 AM MDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Very hot and dry conditions will persist through Saturday. As
temperatures soar between 5 to 15 degrees above normal, humidities
will plummet to less than 5 percent in most locations. Some relief
will arrive on Sunday as a back door cold front pushes south and west
through the state. Low level moisture behind the front should fuel a
few storms over the high terrain. Temperatures will even drop a few
degrees below normal across the plains on Sunday. However, the break
from the heat will be short-lived. More triple digit temperatures
are expected Tuesday through at least Thursday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change to the going forecast. Very hot and dry conditions
will persist through Saturday as an upper level ridge continues to
build into the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will push 110 degF
near Roswell and over 105 across much of the east central plains
Saturday. Will add a heat advisory in for Saturday across De Baca,
Curry, Quay, Roosevelt and Chaves counties. Will leave the Heat
Advisory as is for today.

A back door cold front remains on tap for late Saturday night and
early Sunday.  In addition to the cooler temperatures, breezy to
windy conditions can be expected behind the front as it slides down
the plains. Gusty winds are also expected in the Albuquerque Metro
area as the front pushes through the gaps of the central mountain
chain. The front should arrive around sunrise Sunday morning in the
Rio Grande Valley, and will continue to push westward to the ContDvd
by noon. The cooler temperatures will give the plains a break from
the triple digit heat, and high temperatures are expected to
actually drop below normal. Moisture behind the front should set the
stage for a few thunderstorms with gusty winds over the high terrain
on Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures will quickly rebound early next work week as the upper
high builds in even stronger. Triple digit heat can be expected as
early as Tuesday, and will become more widespread Wed and Thu.
Record temperatures will again be in jeopardy. The moisture brought
in by the front over the weekend should continue to recycle in the
form of showers and thunderstorms for at least Monday and Tuesday.
These storms will favor the high terrain, though outflow boundary
collisions may help ignite storms over lower elevations. Large
inverted-V forecast soundings would suggest that if storms develop,
very strong downburst winds will be possible.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CONTINUED VERY DRY...UNSTABLE and HOT WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...

Winds aloft will transition to west to northwest today and trend
more northwesterly Saturday as the upper high center shifts into
Arizona. A very dry and unstable air mass will continue to dominate
northern and central New Mexico through Saturday. Two more days,
today and Saturday, of widespread and prolonged single digit
relative humidities are anticipated. Poor overnight humidity
recoveries will continue tonight west and central, with some return
moisture again impacting the east early this morning and tonight,
leading to better recoveries. It will be warmer again today with
some near record heat central and east, but Saturday will be the
hottest day overall with near record to record heat across all of
northern and central New Mexico. Haines of 6 overall today through
Saturday with embedded areas of super Haines forecast.

The cold front plowing into the eastern plains Saturday night will
bring a brief respite from some of the heat and dryness. A
reinforcement of cooler air and low level moisture remains on tap for
Sunday night. Gusty north to northeast winds to 45 mph are possible
with the initial surge down the plains Saturday night/early Sunday,
and a gusty east wind into the RGV could commence early Sunday. MOS
guidance at Albuquerque is not in great agreement so far how strong
the wind will be, and anticipated convection sparked by the front
would likely be a factor in the strength of any gap wind. The
reinforcing surge could reach the Contdvd or AZ border. Highs Sunday
will range from 5 to 20 degrees cooler central and east, while the
far west will see little change. Minimum humidities Sunday will be
higher, breaking the extended string of single digit relative
humidity days. Slight chances for showers and storms are possible
Sunday over mainly the higher terrain, but expand into the plains and
lower elevations as the cells drift off the mountains and the
reinforcing surface surge take effect.

New Mexico goes back into the oven early next week and will remain
there for much of the week. High temperatures will heat up to around
8 to 12 degrees above average next Tuesday through Thursday and
instability will be widespread with Haines of 6 and areas of Super
Haines. Enough moisture looks to be trapped under the ridge to
produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection over
the higher terrain and east, although chances for wetting rain
diminish by Wednesday/Thursday. Some of the storms especially west
and central would be dry with strong and gusty winds. A stronger
front may impact the east late next week, bringing a reprieve from
the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Low level moisture making a run back into ern NM at 06Z and will push
to the Pecos Valley by 12Z, then mix out rapidly. Not expecting any
impact, although patchy fog could develop around 12Z vcnty KCVS swd.
Otherwise, upper high center to slowly drift from nrn Old Mexico into
AZ next 24 hrs with light winds alf. FU from wildfires in north
central NM may result in locally reduced vsbys vcnty KSAF and KLAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  54  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  87  42  90  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  91  53  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  92  42  94  50 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  88  40  90  45 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  92  45  94  51 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  90  48  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  99  48 100  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  82  43  83  47 /   0   0   5   5
Los Alamos......................  88  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  89  53  92  54 /   0   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  81  48  83  53 /   0   0   5  10
Red River.......................  74  45  77  46 /   0   0   5  10
Angel Fire......................  81  36  83  41 /   0   0   5  10
Taos............................  89  46  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  86  54  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  95  59  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  87  59  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  93  55  96  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  97  63  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  64 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  99  60 101  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  61 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas....................... 100  57 102  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  97  62  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro......................... 100  62 102  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  93  51  95  54 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  95  58  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  50  96  56 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  92  56  94  55 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  95  59  96  59 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  98  62  99  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  91  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  91  51  93  52 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  95  52  96  51 /   0   0   0  10
Springer........................  95  50  97  51 /   0   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  92  55  94  54 /   0   0   0   5
Clayton.........................  97  62  98  55 /   0   0   5   5
Roy.............................  95  55  96  54 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas......................... 100  64 102  63 /   0   0   5   5
Santa Rosa...................... 101  61 102  59 /   0   0   5   5
Tucumcari....................... 106  65 107  62 /   0   0   5   5
Clovis.......................... 102  64 104  61 /   5   5   5   5
Portales........................ 103  66 105  63 /   5   5   5   5
Fort Sumner..................... 103  65 103  64 /   0   0   5   5
Roswell......................... 108  63 110  66 /   0   0   5   5
Picacho.........................  98  63 100  61 /   0   0   5   5
Elk.............................  93  61  95  60 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ534>538.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ534-538.

&&

$$

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