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000
FXUS65 KABQ 011832
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

.UPDATE...
WOW. LOTS TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING. OVERALL SPENT MOST TIME WITH
SNOW LEVELS AND SUBSEQUENT QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY A VERY WELL
DEFINED MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS IS BARRELING INTO WESTERN NM WHILE
DEVELOPMENT ALSO OCCURS RAPIDLY WITHIN CENTRAL NM. RAISED POPS TO
BTWN 80 AND 100 PCT ALMOST ALL AREAS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. BASED
ON A WELL DEFINED SECONDARY VORT MAX WITHIN THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...HAVE SIDED WITH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SECONDARY PRECIP AXIS TONIGHT.
EXPECT GREATEST IMPACTS FROM RAIN/SNOW IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I40 CORRIDOR...AND THE CONT DVD. UPGRADED WATCH TO WARNINGS
FOR SANDIA/MANZANO/SACS AND THE SW MTS WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES IS
EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 18 INCHES ABOVE 9000
FEET. THIS WILL OCCUR MAINLY BTWN 8PM TONIGHT AND NOON SUNDAY.
ALSO PLACED ADVISORY OVER NE PLAINS WHERE POTENT COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT DEEP MOISTURE AND RESULT IN MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1108 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ALONG AND W OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
TODAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF/LCL IFR CONDITIONS. SPOTTIER RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FARTHER E...EXCEPT DRY ALONG/E OF A LINE FROM
KROW TO KCVN. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR 8500 FEET DURING THE
AFTN W OF THE RIO GRANDE. SNOW LEVEL WILL KEEP DROPPING
TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR 6000 FT BY MORNING. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE/E CENTRAL AREAS WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY
-FZRA FM KTCC N TO THE CO BORDER. THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW ACROSS NE/E CENTRAL AREAS AFT SUNRISE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DYNAMIC
PACIFIC EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY BAY CA
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING EAST FROM FAR SW UTAH THEN SOUTH ALONG THE CA-AZ STATE
LINE THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM...RAIN SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH CENTRAL AZ AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION TRANSLATES SLOWLY
EAST TOWARDS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS
SAGGED INTO EXTREME NE NM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE PACIFIC LOW CENTER MIGRATES ONSHORE IT WILL BEGIN TO FILL...
ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATE UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION AND GEOSTROPHIC DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE STRETCHES ALONG A
LINE FROM RATON SOUTHWEST TO LORDSBURG NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BELOW 8500 FEET
AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 8500 FEET...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
NE TO SW LINE OF PRECIPITATION TRAVERSES NEW MEXICO FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST.  NAM...ECMWF AND GFS MODELING ALL
INDICATE THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FAVORS THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE 8 TO 10
INCHES WILL BE COMMON AND OVER 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONG BUT SHALLOW BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CROSSING FROM THE WEST. FRONTAL OVERRUNNING COULD
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

COLDER AIR WILL INFILTRATE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NEW MEXICO FROM 06Z TO 18Z ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER EARLY
SUNDAY TO AROUND 7000 FEET WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO INTO THE TX-OK PANHANDLES AROUND
NOON AND FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THE CURRENT AND UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE WIND ADVISORIES BUT
FRESHENED UP AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP.  GIVEN THE WARM NATURE OF THIS
STORM WINTER WEATHER TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND
LIMITED TO EARLY SUNDAY TO MIDDAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE RATON AND
GLORIETA PASSES AS WELL AS THE PASSES OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

ON SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AS
MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS...AND AS MUCH AT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REBOUND EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY DUE TO
QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

BENNETT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST PACIFIC FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UP WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND WILL EXCEED
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOTED
OVER ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CARRY OVER INTO NEW
MEXICO LATER TODAY...BUT REMAIN LOW. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS BEHIND A STRONGER BACKDOOR PUSH.
VENTILATION WILL STILL BE GOOD MOST AREAS SUNDAY...BUT WILL TAKE A
HIT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIXED-BAG OF POOR TO GOOD RATES
FORECAST.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRUSH BY NEW MEXICO.
RIDGING ALOFT LATE WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW ON
THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A WARMING/DRYING TREND WITH IMPROVED
MIXING AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION. AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY PRIOR TO FROPA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WETTING
PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SHOWING A WETTER SCENARIO WITH A RETROGRADING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS.

11

&&

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-510>515.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ521>524-526-528-529-532>537-539-540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ530-531-534.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ505-507.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-526.

&&

$$