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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171200 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PRODUCING PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF HIGH BASED VIRGA AROUND...AND ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS THAT EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DRY MICROBURSTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013...
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NE TOWARD NM ON INCREASING
SW FLOW WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME MORE OF THOSE PESKY AFTERNOON GUSTY
SPRINKLES AND STORMS TODAY. GRIDDED POP VALUES FROM NEARLY ALL 00Z
MODELS WERE BELOW MENTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO VERY DRY WITH
TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO MOISTEN UP THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS THERE...
AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR VIRGA TO DEVELOP QUITE PROLIFICALLY
DESPITE VERY DRY AIR SO DID LEAVE IN MENTION TODAY. AN AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WX ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTS INTO THE NE HIGHLANDS HAS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH
SEVERAL FACTORS LEANING US IN DIRECTION TO RAISE THE RED FLAGS
THERE TODAY. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
10 TO 15F ABOVE CLIMO. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE FOR
MOST AREAS...AND WINDY OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS.

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
A COOL DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM FOR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
EAST WILL REMAIN HOT UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MORE
ON THE WINDY SIDE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND EVEN THE
LATEST 06Z NAM ARE TRENDING WETTER WITH THE QPF VALUES FOR THE NW
AND WESTERN MTS...SO HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SOME AREAS MAY SEE WETTING PRECIP VALUES ALONG THE DIVIDE.
TEMPS WILL TREND 10F COOLER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH READINGS
ACTUALLY NEAR 5F BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE EAST AGAIN.

ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE SHAPE BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ESE THRU THE AREA...TRENDING TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A 30-50KT 700-500MB JET CORE
WILL EJECT THRU THE BASE OF THE SHEARING TROUGH SUNDAY AND CREATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST AND MORE CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
FOR THE NORTH WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING
ANOTHER WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL EITHER WAY AS 700MB TEMPS AVERAGE 4-6C OVER NORTHERN NM...
WHICH IS QUITE COOL FOR LATE MAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BREEZY/WINDY WITH MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

BEYOND MONDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A QUICKLY PASSING
SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH TO SW FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION FOR MID WEEK. THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 90F AT THE ABQ
SUNPORT IS MAY 27TH...AND WE HAVE 89F ON MAY 23RD SO THE HEAT IS
GETTING CLOSER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WANT TO DEVELOP DRYLINE
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY/FRIDAY NEXT WEEK
BUT WE SHALL SEE. GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITY/HIGH HAINES AND GUSTY WINDS...

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY PASS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING WINDS ALOFT
STRONG. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER INGREDIENT FOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DAILY ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS ALL POINT TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM PASSES OVERHEAD CAUSING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS AND POTENTIALLY ALSO SOUTHERN AREAS.  WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL REPLACE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WITH RED
FLAG WARNINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FROM QUEMADO TO CLINES CORNERS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ALONG AND E OF I-25 ON SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM MOVES OVERHEAD. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING
BY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE EAST WITH CONTINUED HIGH HAINES AND LOW HUMIDITY
CONCERNS. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE HAZARDOUS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
DRIER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE CO BORDER ON
SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WIDESPREAD
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH
OF THE POLAR JET STREAM BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM IN RESPONSE TO
THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A RESPITE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT AND SEASONABLY GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION AND A NICE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WORK WEEK SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHWEST US AND CAUSES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN ALSO SHOWS PROMISE FOR MAKING THE DRY LINE
BECOME ACTIVE...WHICH WILL SEEM UNUSUAL GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY LINE
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106-107-109.

&&

$$