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000
FXUS65 KABQ 010602
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1102 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF TO
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS
THEN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INCREASING AGAIN IN THE
NW. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT FMN AND
GUP THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MST SAT NOV 30 2013...
LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE RIGHT AROUND KFMN...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOWERING THAT THEY WILL COMPLETELY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE SUN GOES DOWN. EVEN IF THEY DO...THEY SHOULD RETURN IN A HURRY
THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF
FZFG...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED PREVIOUS MORNINGS. OTHERWISE...
HAVE WARMED MIN TEMPS UP A BIT ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BASED
ON HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE...AND AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN NORMALLY BREEZY PLACES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...INCLUDING AREAS FROM KFMN TO KCQC.  WITH THAT
SAID...LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD ERODE QUICKER TOMORROW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THAN TODAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT SOME BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM...AND
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING...EASTERN AREAS WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE GFS REMAINS AT ODDS WITH OTHER MODELS REGARDING A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SENDS DOWN A COLD FRONT MUCH
QUICKER...BY A DAY OR MORE...THAN ANY OTHER MODELS...THUS HAVE
IGNORED THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW.

BY WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP WITH
SOLUTIONS...BUT LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE TRENDING TOWARD AN OPEN
WAVE...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE STATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT. LATEST ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON QPF ON THURSDAY...BUT GFS
STILL NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
POOR. ONE THING DOES SEEM CERTAIN...IT WILL GET COLDER...MUCH
COLDER. THE COOLING TREND STARTS WEDNESDAY...AS THE PACIFIC FRONT
MOVES INTO NW NM...BUT WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTER THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BACKS UP TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AREA-WIDE BY FRIDAY.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
STABLE LAYER WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES TONIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAS
BUT POCKETS OF POOR WILL STILL EXIST. THE FLOW WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND LOOKING FOR SOME BREEZES FAVORING CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. WENT A LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY SO
EXPECTING SOME BREEZIER RIDGE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. HUMIDITY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES. VENTILATION SHOULD LOWER DESPITE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS. THIS IS DUE TO LOWERING MIXING HEIGHTS
FOLLOWING THE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS THE LONE WOLF IN TERMS OF PUSHING A STRONGER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE CANADIAN/ECMWF AND NAM
POINT TOWARDS A WINDIER SCENARIO WITH NO BACK DOOR INTRUSION. WE
HAVE ADOPTED THE LATTER AND THE WIND GRIDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
ACCORDINGLY. ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE QUITE BRISK. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND DID LOWER DEWPOINTS SOME THANKS TO INCREASED
MIXING. STILL NOT SEEING 15 PCT OR LESS HUMIDITY VALUES SO DONT
THINK TUESDAY WILL TURN INTO A CRITICAL DAY. AFTER-ALL...EXPECTING
SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER
POSSIBILITIES FOR WED THROUGH FRI. EITHER WAY...IT STILL LOOKS
UNSETTLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD BOTH
WED/THUR BUT COULD LOWER ON FRI DUE TO POST COLD FRONTAL INVERSION
EFFECTS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER BUT STILL VARIES ON HOW MUCH PRECIP AND WHERE THE
FAVORED AREAS WOULD BE. WEST FACING HIGHER ELEVATION RANGES WOULD
MOST LIKELY DO WELL.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WOULD
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH SO WILL BE MONITORING MODEL
TRENDS ON THIS. EITHER WAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS PREDICTED.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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