Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271702 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1002 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The Pacific cold front arrived with wind gusts over 50 kt in
numerous locations along and west of the central mountain chain
early this morning. So...we upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High
Wind Warning along the east slopes of the central mountain chain
and eastward down the I-40 corridor.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...441 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
FG/BR and low cigs continue across the eastern plain this morning.
KTCC/KROW will continue to be impacted for several more hours
until the front and precip arrive. Elsewhere, upper level trough, sfc
cold front and associated rain and snow showers moving just east
of the central mountain chain this morning. Cigs and vsbys
associated with the Pacific front/precip mainly MVFR/IFR with lcl
LIFR in the higher terrain in moderate to heavy snow. West wind
will rapidly increase behind the front this morning with speeds
between 30 to 45 kt at many terminals until around sunset. Brisk
west winds will continue at most sites overnight.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 AM MST Sun Nov 27 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous and fast-moving trough of low pressure is quickly
passing over the Four Corners region this morning, bringing rain
and high elevation snow to portions of New Mexico. A few inches of
accumulation are expected in the northern mountains of the state
into the late morning with winds increasing through this time
frame. Many locales along and east of the central mountain chain
will observe occasional gusts of 45 to 55 mph. Precipitation will
diminish some this afternoon, but winds will be more stubborn to
decrease. While some reduction in speed is expected after dark,
breezy to windy conditions will persist overnight, strengthening a
bit more into the daytime Monday. New batches of precipitation
will also take shape tonight in central to western New Mexico as a
second upper level disturbance arrives with a couple inches of new
snow expected in some locales. Snow will taper off some during the
day Monday with chilly temperatures expected in central to western
New Mexico. Colder air will arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday with
precipitation chances disappearing by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The first short wave trough in a series of perturbations is
currently lifting northeastward near the Four Corners. Mid level
jet is digging farther into NM with ridge tops likely observing
some rapid surges in gusts. Precipitation is extending over some
central to western zones of the forecast area with some lightning
strikes being observed in northwestern NM too. Snow levels are
continuing to fall, and dynamic cooling will continue into the mid
to late morning, so more opportunity for snow accumulations exists
in the northern mountains between now and noon. Will keep winter
weather advisory as is with best prospects for significant snow
accumulations staying in the San Juan/Tusas mountains. Winds are
the other concern today and the previously hoisted wind advisory
looks on track with the central to eastern zones being favored for
the highest gusts. Would not be terribly surprised if KLVS or
KCQC meet a brief high wind gust exceeding 60mph, but confidence
is not high enough to upgrade any zones to a warning at this
point. Have tried to nudge today`s high temperatures a bit below
guidance in central to western zones, but may not have gone low
enough to capture the dynamic cooling trend that will be taking
place.

By dusk this evening, a second perturbation aloft, currently over
Oregon, will dive southeastward to NM. This feature will allow the
colder air aloft to spill southward while redeveloping a
secondary batch of precipitation over central to western NM,
primarily in the form of snow tonight into Monday morning. Snow
amounts tonight through early Monday will be on the lighter side,
generally staying at or less than a couple of inches, however the
next couple of shifts might pull the trigger on another winter wx
advisory to account for impacts over the west central zones,
including I-40 around the continental divide. Another wind
advisory could be needed Monday afternoon as well, as the mid
level jet will still have a presence with 700mb winds advertised
to still be between 45-55mph. Monday`s high temperatures will be
a few degrees colder in all zones with a brief lull in
precipitation expected before the next short wave trough arrives.

The flow aloft will gain more of a meridional component late
Monday, allowing this third perturbation to sag southward into NM
Monday night and Tuesday. Some light snow could break out late
Monday afternoon in the northwestern zones, before spreading south
and east Monday night and early Tuesday. Overall, the higher
terrain of central to western NM would have the best prospects for
snow, but amounts are expected to be fairly light due to
limitations with moisture. Very cold air will sag into NM Monday
night, but the stronger northwesterly winds will likely keep the
temperatures from fully bottoming out.

The axis of the third trough will finally cross southeastward and
exit NM late Tuesday with cold daytime temperatures and some scant
remnant snow showers fizzling into the afternoon. Winds will
decrease significantly into Tuesday night, setting up a better
regime for more optimal radiational cooling. This will lead to
even lower overnight temperatures than the preceding night.

On Wednesday, the northwesterly flow aloft turns drier with a
temporary break from the recent repetitive disturbances. While
drier and more tranquil conditions shape up for Wednesday and
Thursday, temperatures will still remain several degrees below
average. Forecast models continue to advertise the development of
a cut-off low near the upper Gulf of California by Friday and next
weekend. While models now indicate a farther south track with this
feature, it still would likely invoke a cooler and wetter pattern
for NM.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong west winds will be the main weather story today as a strong
Pacific cold front plows east through New Mexico. The strongest west
winds are expected along and east of the central mountain chain
during the afternoon hours with gusts to 55 mph possible across the
central mountain chain, northeast highlands and northeast plains.

The second in a series of cold upper level waves will move through
southern NM tonight. Western mountains will be the favored area for
several inches of snow tonight. A third wave is expected to bring
even colder air along with snow chances to the northern and western
mountains Monday evening. Models are now stronger with west and
northwest winds Monday afternoon and evening from the western
mountains east to the central mountain chain, central highlands east
to the TX line. The coldest air of the season will move in behind
this upper trough Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures
dropping to between 10 and 20 degrees below seasonal averages by
Wednesday.

Temperatures modify somewhat Thursday, ahead of the next upper level
trough/closed low sliding south through the Great Basin. Weather
prediction models continue to waffle back and forth as to how soon
and how far west a closed low will develop Friday. Slight
differences in the track of the upper low would equate to major
sensible weather differences Friday and into next weekend,
particularly if the backdoor cold front the GFS is forecasting gets
into the mix.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ515-521-522-524-525-527-528-530-535>537-540.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ523-526-529-531>534-539.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the
following zones... NMZ512>514.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for the following
zones... NMZ503-510-511.

&&

$$

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