Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 261129 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A BAND OF TSTMS IN SOUTHERN QUAY COUNTY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL IMPACT AT KTCC. AFTN AND EVENING SHRA
AND TSTMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW BETTER TAPS INTO THE MOISTURE PRESENT IN NORTHERN
MEXICO. FAVORED AREAS INITIALLY WILL BE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN WITH STORMS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
AT KGUP...KSAF...AND KLVS FOR TSTM IMPACT DURING THE LATE AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH LESS CONFIDENCE MOST OTHER TAF SITES.
MOST CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

24/41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLE DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FORCE THE UPPER HIGH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FARTHER EASTWARD TODAY. THIS SHIFT WILL
RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN FILTERING INTO WESTERN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHIFTING
FAVORED AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD STORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST TX EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL AND
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG TROUGH/LOW DROPPING INTO THE PACNW WILL FORCE THE UPPER
HIGH SLIGHTLY EWD TODAY. THIS EWD SHIFT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
BETTER INSTABILITY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER NRN MEXICO. COLLIDING RAIN COOLED
OUTFLOWS WILL MAKE STORMS IN RGV MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING. IN
FACT...GFS KEEPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER
CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE NIGHT.

DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO WRN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHIFTING
THE FAVORED AREAS FOR STORMS TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GFS THE DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS AND SEEMS LIKE THE
MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH SLIDING EWD
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
ERN NM WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IN A SWATH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. FAVORED AREAS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EWD TO THE TX LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND OVER THE NRN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING.
ANOTHER HEALTHILY ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED MOST AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE SE PLAINS
WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY WIN OUT.

THE UPPER HIGH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ELONGATED AND CENTERED NEAR THE AZ/UT BORDER. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
KEEP THE HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST AND KEEP CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
AND NRN NM RATHER ACTIVE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD/VERY GOOD VENT RATES WEST /EXCELLENT EAST/ TODAY WILL IMPROVE
FURTHER MON BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD AND BECOMING MUCH MORE VARIABLE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED/THU. MAX TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE COOLING BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS MID
TO LATE WEEK. EXPECT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN WETTING TSTM FOOTPRINTS
THIS PM AS COMPARED TO SAT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WC HIGHLANDS
/CONTDVD REGION TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES.
THIS AS DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE BRUSHING FAR
SW NM/SE AZ BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
CENTERED OVER NW TX. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE THE CHUSKA
MTS/ASSAYII BURN SCAR THAT HAS BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS BUT SHOULD SEE DECENT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE SEASON MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD. DRYING FROM THE
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NM AND SHIFT THE MONSOON PLUME/FOCUS
FOR STORMS EASTWARD MONDAY. BEST CHANCE ALONG/EAST OF CENTRAL MT
CHAIN TUE.

THEREAFTER...GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH REORGANIZES TO THE WEST OF NM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A MOIST BACK DOOR FRONT TO INITIALLY IMPACT
THE EASTERN PLAINS WED AND EVENTUALLY MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WEST BY
THU. WED-THU PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AMONG THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE COMING
WEEK...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WETTER PERIOD VS. GFS
ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.