Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221125 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE OVER NM FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING SWLY. MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE RGV AND TOWARDS THE CONTDVD. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AS WELL...AND EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT AFT 18Z.
MTS MAY BE BRIEFLY OBSCURED BY HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA IN WHICH
CIGS/VSBYS MAY FALL TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI APR 22 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE
WEST COAST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL SKIRT AROUND NEW MEXICO TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT THE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL HELP SPARK
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN ALONG AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY. THE
JET STREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER ON
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS PROBABLY REACHING 50 MPH OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN DAILY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY...THEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN UNION COUNTY/FAR NE NM.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT USHERING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR FOR
SUNDAY. READINGS WILL VARY AROUND NORMAL MOST PLACES...EXCEPT ON
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE READINGS 4 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SHOULD PERSIST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON MONDAY...THEN PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY
STEERING THE JET STREAM SQUARELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY. IT WILL CAUSE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO PERSIST.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN WEDNESDAY...BUT
SW FLOW LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND APPROACHES NM FROM THE W OR NW.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE AT LEAST SPOTTY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST MODELS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS VERSIONS IN THE
SHORTER TERM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY
AND THEN TO THE EAST OF THE STATE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MIGRATING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NM AT THIS TIME...AND A SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW REMAINS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS UP THE
RGV AND TOWARDS THE CONTDVD...AS THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. RUC AND HRRR NOW JUMPING ONBOARD BREAKING OUT CONVECTION
ALONG THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY MIDAFTERNOON. WITH THE
POOR RH RECOVERIES ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD AT THIS TIME...CAN/T HELP BUT
THINK THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS/ISOLD DRY LIGHTNING
OVER THIS AREA LATER TODAY...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY FORECAST BY THE NAM12.
CONVECTION THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THE
CONTDVD AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO SEE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 OR 50 MPH AS THE
WESTERLY WINDS SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER
THE STATE. MIN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE RGV AND WEST. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR AREAS BELOW SNOWPACK FOR THE NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL AND MIDDLE RGV
ALTHOUGH MAINLY FOR BERNALILLO AND VALENCIA COUNTIES IF THE GRIDS
ARE CLOSE. NOT SURE OF THE STATE OF GREENUP AT THIS TIME...BUT RECENT
COOLER WEATHER MAY HAVE RETARDED IT. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT
NOT OVERLY SO...IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
ON THE DRIER SIDE FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WWD AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES
MORE SHALLOW ON SATURDAY. RIDGETOP WINDS MAY PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
RELENTING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE EAST CENTRAL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH RECOVERIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FAIR TO POOR FOR MANY LOCALES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. POOR RH RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE
WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND CENTRAL AND TO NEAR AVERAGE EAST BY TUESDAY...
TO HELP MODERATE THE COMBO OF WIND AND SUB 15 PERCENT RH FROM THE
MIDDLE RGV TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WHERE CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD. ANY WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SLACKING OFF. ANOTHER SYSTEM LINED UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT GFS
IS DRIER AND WINDIER...THE ECMWF IS WETTER.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ101-105-106.

&&

$$



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