Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 281802 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1102 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE RE-FOCUSING OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SNOW
HAS GENERALLY BEEN THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT IT
HAS STARTED TO MIX WITH RAIN AT KGUP AND WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME
AT KFMN AND KGNT THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PLAGUE THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO PERIODICALLY
TODAY WHILE ISOLATED OR BRIEF LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. TONIGHT...STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
FREEZING FOG WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
HAVE BUILT IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SEVERAL TAF SITES AS
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND NOW.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DANGEROUS WEATHER SCENARIO CURRENTLY IMPACTING MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. BITTERLY COLD
AIR WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL ADD UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...
ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL FEET. A WARMING TREND WILL TURN SNOW TO
RAIN FOR FOLKS BELOW 7500 FEET SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM
WILL SLIDE IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND DELIVER EVEN MORE SNOW FOR
THE REGION. A BITTER COLD AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
MUCH NEEDED WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY TIMES DOES MOTHER NATURE DELIVER THE TYPE OF EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS WEATHER THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AROUND NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. AN EXCEPTIONALLY IMPRESSIVE STATIONARY BAND OF SNOWFALL
SLIDING RIGHT OVER CENTRAL NM WITH FRIGID TEMPS IS IMPACTING THE ABQ
METRO AREA NEAR THE LEVEL OF THE MASSIVE 2006 SNOW EVENT. FOLKS ARE
URGED NOT TO TRAVEL UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
ATMOSHPERIC DYNAMICS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PUT ON A SHOW THAT
RESIDENTS WILL BE TALKING ABOUT FOR A LONG TIME. STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
AREA FOR THE 2 DAY PERIOD.

MADE SIGNIFICANT EDITS TO FIRST 12-24 FORECAST PERIODS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT SCENARIO. WARM ADVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE
IN ERNEST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A DEEPLY RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SNOW INTO WESTERN NM THROUGH
MONDAY THAT WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE FEET OF SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHWEST
HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THIS TAP AND
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS TO ROOF AND WEAKENED
STRUCTURES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.

COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN DEVELOP AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY FOR
THE REGION AND RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE IS INDICATED TO SLIDE SOUTH BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM
AND FORCE A SERIOUS BLAST OF COLD AIR INTO THE STATE. UPSLOPE SNOWS
ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME ALL IS
SAID AND DONE WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE 7 DAY PERIOD FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET!

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUES OVER
MUCH OF NM. BITTERLY COLD RECORD TEMPS OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY
TO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND PRIMARILY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ON
THE REBOUND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL
SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST MTS ABOVE 7500-8500 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS
AGAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH THIS
PATTERN AS WARM AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE A PRECIP SLIDES
SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN NM. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT
INTO TUESDAY FOR THE SAN JUAN MTS. OTHER AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES RELEGATED BY SNOWMELT. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS ON
TUESDAY AND INTRODUCE THE NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW ALL AREAS. WINDS LOOK STRONG BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.

A MAJOR SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL TEMPORARILY IMPACT THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BEFORE MODERATING TEMPS AND DRYING DEVELOPS FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK. SNOWPACK VALUES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO NORMAL OR EVEN
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MTS BEHIND THIS PATTERN.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ505-530>537.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502>504-507-516>518.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501>504-507-516>519-521>523-528-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ506.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$







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