Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250940
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR
CENTRAL TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER COLORADO. STORMS WILL TEND TO DRIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST TODAY WHILE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
OBSERVED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO
WEST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE...AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS AREA FOR STORMS THEN. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE WILL BE
SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN FARTHER WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER UNDERACHIEVING SOME YESTERDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA STANDS TO SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
TODAY. BEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THIS
SECTOR...BUT THE DEEPEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER
WEST INTO AZ AND BEYOND. PWATS FOR THIS SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE
ABQ FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
ZONES. AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES OVER COLORADO TODAY...THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALTER...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT MORE
WESTBOUND OR NORTHWESTBOUND...AND THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE TO
CONTINUE WATCHING WILL BE A PERTURBATION CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN
CA/NV THAT WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO UT. A FEW SMALL AND
VERY DISCRETE CELLS MAY BUBBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD BE BRIEF-LIVED WITH TINY FOOTPRINTS OF RAINFALL. SOME
WARMING WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY...BUT THE RISES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
MINIMAL OF ONLY 1 TO 4 DEGREES.

BY WEDNESDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION WILL BE PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS...FORCING THE HIGH SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. THE HIGH WILL ALSO UNDERGO SOME
STRETCHING ON A SW-NE AXIS. THIS UPPER AIR SCENARIO STILL APPEARS
TO ELICIT A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN BREEZES. THIS WILL SPEED UP STORM MOTIONS WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE ARRIVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NM. MOS GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY`S HIGH HAS TRENDED DOWN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MAV...BUT
HAVE NOT GONE AS LOW AS IT WOULD SUGGEST.

INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RELOCATE TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL OF
NM WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF THE NATION. THIS WOULD LEAVE A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER PARTS OF NM AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR
FRONT COULD SLIDE INTO THE STATE. WHILE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT...IT STILL
APPEARS TO BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS INTO FRIDAY AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE FARTHER WEST MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED
FOR A FAIRLY CLIMATOLOGICAL STORM REGIME FOR LATE AUGUST. THE DOME
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER
NM LATE BY THE WEEKEND...AND THE RECYCLE MODE WILL CONTINUE WITH
REGARDS TO MOISTURE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MODELS STILL DEVELOP CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER CO/FAR NRN
NM BY LATE TODAY...DESPITE THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE CENTER WELL OFF FROM WHERE THE
MODELS THINK IT PRESENTLY IS LOCATED. CURRENTLY THINKING THE CENTER
WILL END UP WHERE IT/S FORECAST LATER TODAY...WITH THE IMAGERY
INDICATING DIGGING TROFS OFF THE WEST COAST. IN ANY CASE...A
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE...ALONG
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER WRN NM TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT THEN
BRUSH NRN NM WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE
NORTH AND PARTS OF THE EAST. BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH CENTER IS
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AS A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ERN PLAINS.

WITH THE CHANGES IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN...STORM MOTION MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC AT TIMES. IN GENERAL...THE H5-H7 FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...AND
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH
RANGE AT BEST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO UNPREDICTABLE OR
ERRATIC MOTION HOWEVER. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN WINDS ALOFT...THE RGV
AND NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM WOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT BACK OVER NM LATE THIS
WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO A DOWN TREND IN CONVECTION
OVERALL. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONGER TROF MAY DIG INTO THE PAC NW
NEXT WEEK...WHICH MIGHT ALLOW FOR A MORE DIRECT TAP OF MOISTURE INTO
NM FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WON/T STRAY TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...WHILE BOTH MIN AND MAX HUMIDITIES TREND DOWNWARD A BIT BY
FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRIDAY
WEST AND CENTRAL. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS E AZ AND W NM AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CHUSKA MTNS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTN. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HVY RAIN ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40KT. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH...AND SOME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS NW NM INTO
THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  93  63  85  60 /  20  30  40  50
DULCE...........................  83  52  77  51 /  20  40  40  50
CUBA............................  84  54  79  53 /  30  40  40  50
GALLUP..........................  85  57  82  55 /  30  50  30  40
EL MORRO........................  82  54  79  52 /  60  50  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  55  80  55 /  30  40  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  81  55  80  54 /  40  40  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  84  60  86  59 /  50  40  20  20
CHAMA...........................  80  48  75  48 /  50  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  59  80  58 /  20  30  40  50
PECOS...........................  81  54  79  55 /  30  30  30  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  52  78  51 /  20  30  20  50
RED RIVER.......................  74  45  71  46 /  30  30  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  74  47  72  48 /  20  20  40  50
TAOS............................  84  51  79  53 /  10  20  20  50
MORA............................  78  52  76  52 /  20  30  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  87  55  84  57 /  10  30  20  50
SANTA FE........................  86  58  82  58 /  30  30  20  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  87  58  84  58 /  10  30  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  85  63 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  89  65  87  66 /  10  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  91  59  89  60 /  10  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  61  89  61 /  10  20  20  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  63  89  62 /  10  20  20  40
RIO RANCHO......................  89  64  87  62 /  10  20  20  40
SOCORRO.........................  89  63  90  62 /  10  20  10  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  85  59  82  59 /  20  30  30  50
TIJERAS.........................  86  59  84  58 /  20  30  30  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  84  55  86  55 /  20  20  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  57  81  57 /  20  20  20  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  59  82  59 /  20  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  61  84  59 /  30  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  76  55  76  56 /  40  30  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  87  55  84  56 /  10  10  10  20
RATON...........................  89  56  86  57 /  10  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  89  59  87  59 /  10  20  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  83  54  81  56 /  10  20  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  91  64  91  65 /  10  10   5  20
ROY.............................  87  60  86  61 /  10  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  93  67  93  68 /  10  10  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  91  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  67  94  68 /  10  10   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  90  64  91  65 /  10  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  91  65  91  67 /  10  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  66  91  67 /  10  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  93  67  95  69 /  10  20  10  10
PICACHO.........................  87  62  88  62 /  20  20  10  10
ELK.............................  80  58  81  59 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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