Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 141748 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1048 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

Dry northwest flow aloft with sfc lee trough developing by 22Z. Cold
front to reach far ne NM by 15/09Z and plunge south and westward
thereafter. North to northeast wind gusts to around 35kt associated
with the frontal boundary and MVFR cigs expected in the wake of the
front, which may reach the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mts
and south and eastward to Interstate 40 and the TX border by 15/18Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...316 AM MST Sun Jan 14 2018...
With a ridge of high pressure west of New Mexico, today`s high
temperatures will generally be a few to several degrees warmer than
yesterday. An upper level trough will dive southward over New Mexico
Monday and Tuesday, sending a windy back door cold front across the
eastern plains and into the central valley on Monday and Monday
night. Moist easterly upslope flow will result in some light snow
along the east slopes of the central mountain chain Monday and Monday
night, with a few inches of snow accumulation possible north of Las
Vegas to around Cimarron and Raton Pass. A weaker trough crossing
western areas may trigger some snow showers Tuesday night before a
warming trend commences Wednesday through Friday. Models are in
fairly good agreement on a deeper upper level trough bringing a
better chance of wintry precipitation to western and central areas
during the first half of the coming weekend.


Northeasterly wind gusts from 30 to 40 mph are expected across the
eastern plains on Monday, then a gusty east canyon wind will develop
in the central valley from Santa Fe southward Monday night.

Models cancelled an upper low that was forecast to cross the
northern mountains and northeast areas on Wednesday. Instead, the
latest runs now split a storm system exiting the Great Basin Tuesday
night with the main upper low crossing the northern Rockies and a
weaker upper level trough diving southeastward over the southwest
half of NM. Some light snow is possible across western NM Tuesday
night, then some of these showers may linger into Wednesday.

The warming trend during the latter half of the week should push high
temperatures around 5 to 15 degrees above normal on Friday. Southwest
winds will also become breezy, if not windy, on Friday ahead of the
weekend storm system. An upper level low is forecast to pass
eastward across the central Rockies Friday night and Saturday with a
fairly deep trough extending southward and crossing NM from the west.
The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models all depict some wintry
precipitation breaking out over western and central NM with this
westerly upslope flow event.



No significant fire weather concerns Sunday outside of widespread
poor ventilation rates, with pockets of fair. Dry NW flow aloft
remains in place through the day with mostly sunny skies.

The main weather player will be a potent backdoor front entering NE
New Mexico early Monday morning, inducing a wind shift out of the
NNE. Winds with the FROPA will be up to 20-30 mph with gusts up to
40 mph. The front will surge through the gaps of the central mtn
chain where canyon winds in SAF and ABQ will be up to 20-30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph. Temperatures and Td`s will plummet across
eastern NM Monday with highs across the east actually being closer
to midnight tonight, then falling into the 30s during the day.
Central and western NM will see temperatures fall near to below
normal Tuesday. After a brief bump up with the FROPA, Td`s plummet
across eastern NM into the single digits and teens. Despite that,
temperatures fall so much Monday night MaxRH will reach near
saturation allowing a few light snowflakes to be possible Monday
night along the east slopes of the Sangre`s. By Tuesday morning the
front looks to make it to the NM/AZ border, mixing back out by the

A general warming trend takes hold through the rest of the work week
with a ridge building in from the west. MixHgts remain low with vent-
rates remaining poor with pockets of fair at best. A weak short wave
trough does work its way across the region Wednesday, but little
sensible weather impacts are expected outside of increased cloud
cover and maybe a few sprinkles across the Mogollon Mtns. Long
range, models do show another Pacific trough entering the region by
next weekend, increasing winds and ventilations rates as well as the
chance for wetting precipitation. Stay tuned as confidence in timing
and storm track increases.





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