Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 121602 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1002 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST AND 2ND PERIOD FORECASTS BASED TO BETTER REFLECT
ONGOING RADAR TRENDS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
TWEAKED TODAY`S MAX TEMPS DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OR SO. THE NE PLAINS WON`T BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT OUT OF THE 40S TODAY GIVEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW THERE AND THE LATEST NAM OUTPUT
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF BULLS-EYES CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...602 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG FRONT TO BRING SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS MAINLY TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
FRONT... CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR KRTN-KLVS-KTCC WILL MAKE STEADY
SOUTH AND WEST PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG THE FRONT...
EXPECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR KROW...MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS. THUS..EXPECT MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND OR FOG FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THE FOCUS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z...INCREASING DURING THE DAY AND PEAKING
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHEN GUSTS OF 40 ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION WEATHER WARNING IS LIKELY FOR KABQ. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST WESTERN LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KGUP AND
KFMN...THOUGH SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP COLD FRONT INVADING THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE STATEWIDE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH REDUCED INTENSITY AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES IS INVADING NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WITH THE FRONT SLATED TO
BULGE WEST AND PENETRATE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
CHARTS DEPICTING RIDGE CORE CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...KEEPING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN GENTLE SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR NOW. STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER RAINFALLS HAVE MOVED
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA LINES...WITH MUCH REDUCED COVERAGE
OF STRONGER STORMS REMAINING IN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TROUGH ALOFT SWINGING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SWING WITH AUTHORITY INTO THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TROPICAL SYSTEM GETTING CRANKED UP OFF THE
MEXICAN WEST COAST WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MONDAY MORNING...WITH RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
HANGING TOUGH...AND DEEP EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY.
TROUGH SLAMS ONSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK...BUT DOES NOT COLLECT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH
REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENING OFF THE BAJA COAST...AND ALLOWS
RIDGE CORE TO REMAIN SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO
JUST TO THE EAST. PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL SHEAR EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND...CLIPPING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO EN ROUTE AND SPAWNING A COLD PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS TROPICAL ACTION DISSIPATES OFF THE BAJA
COASTLINE.

FOR TODAY...MUCH COOLER OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL AS STRONG COLD
FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD PLUNGE AND WESTWARD BULGE THROUGH
THE DAY...AS 50S DOMINATE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PROGRESS...WITH GUSTS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
GAPS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
WELL INTO THE EVENING...TRIGGERING NEED FOR AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT. FRONT
SLAMMING INTO MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE
WILL SET UP SOME HEAVIER RAINS OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CHAVES COUNTY...BUT BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE HELD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW DUE TO MODEST EXPECTED COVERAGE ON OUR SIDE OF THE CHAVES
COUNTY LINE. FRONTAL FORCING COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW WILL SET
UP ANOTHER SHOWERY DAY OVER THE EAST...WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY...EASTERN TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING SMARTLY...BUT
REMAINING 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS...AND A
LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL ELSEWHERE...AS COLD FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF NEW MEXICO. RIDGE CORE REMAINING EAST OF THE STATE
WILL KEEP NEW MEXICO ON THE WESTERN MARGINS IN WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS GIVING THE EAST SOME TIME TO DRY
OUT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER BACK TO A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST NEAR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURE REBOUND CONTINUES...WITH THE NORTH POKING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY...AND REMAINING 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW MID
SEPTEMBER NORMALS FOR THE I 40 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. STRENGTHENING
RIDGE CORE CONTINUING WESTWARD EXPANSION OVER NEW
MEXICO...BRINGING SHOWER COVERAGES BACK INTO THE SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED CATEGORY OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL...AND LEAVING THE EAST
FAIRLY DRY. COLD FRONT INVADING THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL HELP SHIFT COVERAGE BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO THE EAST AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP. SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL VEER ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

FOR MONDAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST BEHIND PENETRATING COLD FRONT. SHOWER
COVERAGE SHIFTING TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH SOME ADDED COVERAGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH HELP FROM UP SLOPE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TROPICAL SYSTEM SNUGGLING UP
AGAINST THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TUESDAY WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY...AS COOL PUSHES INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH COVERAGE EAST AND SOUTH GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
STARTS TO WORK INTO ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...AND WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE COMMON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. QUITE A CONTRAST EXISTS IN THE OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WITH FAIR RECOVERIES IN THE EXTREME WEST AND EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES ALL AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WHILE THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED IT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TRIGGERING
RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT GAP WINDS
AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE DECREASES WILL
BE MOST DRAMATIC ACROSS THE EAST WITH 15 TO 20 DEGREE COOLDOWNS
COMMON AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DECREES BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUND...INITIALLY OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS ON
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WETTING
RAIN IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND HIGH TERRAIN ON
SATURDAY...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE ON SUNDAY FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING ON SUNDAY...BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT ON MONDAY PRODUCES SUFFICIENT UP SLOPE FLOW TO
SUPPORT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST.  AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS...THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE MOVES TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST JUST
WEST OF BAJA. AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN...EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW A SEEPAGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT AT THIS POINT IT
DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INCREASE NEXT WEEK.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.