Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 191800 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW RESIDUAL SH/TS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TIER REST OF TODAY BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE LESSENING DURING
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND WILL MOST LIKELY PROVIDE LOW CIGS TO NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH
THIS COLD POOL INTRUSION. LIKELY IMPACTS TO TCC AND THIS IS
REFLECTIVE IN THE LATEST TERMINAL FCST. MODEL GUIDANCE WASNT
NEARLY AS BULLISH FOR LVS SO WILL MONITOR THAT SITE AND LATER
TRENDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WET PERIOD IS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAINS...AS A SUCCESSION OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WILL MOVE OUT LATER TODAY...
WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT EPISODE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOCUSING OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BY SUNRISE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY. STORM MOTION OF 20-30KTS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT...WHICH WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND DEPENDENT
ON TRAINING OF CELLS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED
WAVE AND JET MAX TO CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST TODAY...FORCING
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY`S AND BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID MAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL SOMEWHAT OF A DOWN-DAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERHEAD. THE NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SURGE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
SCENARIO WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SETUP...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND AND OUT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST...
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...LATE FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION LEADING
TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS
POINT THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE WE`LL SEE MORE THAN A SHORT-
LIVED DOWNTREND IN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS UP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO WAS WETTING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME DRYING FORECAST TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WEST...BUT ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN SURGE WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DROPS INTO PLACE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL PEAK AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FAVORING
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MORE DRYING IS
FORECAST THURSDAY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN A HAINES 6
ATMOSPHERE...BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FINALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DRYING FRIDAY...WITH A DRY INTRUSION MOVING
IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY...THEN
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY.

LOOKING FORWARD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH MAY KEEP STORMS
MORE FOCUSED ON THE DRYLINE GIVEN A LACK OF BACKDOOR FRONTS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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