Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211042
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
342 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAJOR WINTER STORMS IS BEARING-DOWN ON THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
AND WILL DELIVER HEFTY SNOW AMOUNTS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. SNOW WILL END LATE THURSDAY WITH RAPID
CLEARING AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FRIGID
COLD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A PROLONGED
WARM-UP THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND
WILL STAY THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIGGEST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN ARIZONA PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE 00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CRANK-OUT IMPRESSIVE QPF LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WHICH INCLUDES LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
AS SNOW LEVELS FALL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. OUR FORECAST POP AND QPF
HAVE TRENDED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...MOST NOTABLY
OVER THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS...ALBUQUERQUE METRO AND ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE USUAL FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE ABQ
METRO EXISTS LATER TONIGHT WHEN STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS KICK-IN.
BOTH THE 00Z/06Z NAM12 AND GFS40 SHOW DECENT QPF ACROSS THE METRO
AREA PRIOR TO EAST CANYON WINDS DEVELOPING...SO DECIDED TO INCLUDE
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALTHOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL EVENTUALLY BE LIMITED THANKS TO SHADOWING FROM
STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS. ALSO UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS AND CHAVES COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...THE PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE-OFF A LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
LATE TONIGHT THEN DROP IT SOUTH ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER THROUGH
THURSDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING AND POSSIBLY ENHANCING IT
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND TO THE ABQ
METRO ONCE THE EAST WINDS LET UP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY.


A FRIGID COLD NIGHT IS FORECAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND. A
WARM UP WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO PERSIST...BUT THERE IS SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BLEED-OVER FROM A NORTHWARD MOVING
BAJA LOW.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER THAT A MAJOR SNOWSTORM IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ROUND OF SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE TODAY. A SECOND...MORE
POTENT SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ARIZONA LINE LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...PLENTIFUL SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM
SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES...WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS
WESTWARD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT.
LIFT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT
DEVELOPING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MT. TAYLOR AREA WWD TO THE DIVIDE. THE HEAVY
SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS EXPECTED TO REACH ONE FOOT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE AREAS
THAT END UP WITH THE MOST SNOW THANKS TO DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN ARE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...SANDIAS...AND MANZANOS FROM BLACK LAKE...MORA AND
GASCON...EXTENDING SOUTH TO SANDIA PARK...CEDAR CREST...PONDEROSA
PINES...ESCABOSA...TORREON AND MANZANO. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FALLING SNOW OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW TO WELL BELOW
AVERAGE....MODIFYING SOMEWHAT FRIDAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD RANGE TODAY AND THURSDAY AND POOR FRIDAY.

A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND A FEW CLOUDS TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES GET RATHER WACKY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES SOUTH AND RESULTS IN
A DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BAJA. GLOBAL MODELS ALL BRING THE LOW
BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TOWARD MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS BECOMING OBSCURED. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER WITH IFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF NE
NM AT 05Z TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40 THROUGH 21/12Z...WITH VSBYS LOWERING AS WELL IN -RASN AND BR TO 1
TO 3 MILES. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER TROF MOVG INTO NRN AND
CENTRAL AZ INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER NW AND WEST
CENTRAL NM ESPECIALLY AFT 21/12Z...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RASN
AND BR. EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WIND THROUGH CANYONS INTO
THE RGV AFFECTING KABQ TO KSKX PERSISTING THROUGH 21/23Z...BUT
BECOMING MUCH STRONGER THEREAFTER AS A SECOND UPPER TROF/LOW DIGS
INTO NRN NM AND FURTHER DETERIORATES CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  43  21  39  14 /  40  10  10   5
DULCE...........................  40  17  31   7 /  60  60  30   5
CUBA............................  38  18  30   8 /  80  60  50   5
GALLUP..........................  42  14  34   9 /  60  20  10   5
EL MORRO........................  41  13  32   6 /  80  50  30   5
GRANTS..........................  44  16  32   7 /  70  50  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  46  21  32  13 /  70  60  30   5
GLENWOOD........................  55  28  42  19 /  30  30  20   5
CHAMA...........................  37  14  27   0 /  70  70  40   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  20  28   9 /  80  90  60   5
PECOS...........................  34  19  27  10 /  90 100  60  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  33  11  26  -3 /  80  90  50   5
RED RIVER.......................  30   6  18  -1 /  90  90  60   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   6  22  -5 /  90 100  60   5
TAOS............................  35  13  28  -2 /  80  90  50   5
MORA............................  32  15  23   3 /  90 100  60   5
ESPANOLA........................  38  22  30   9 /  70  90  50   5
SANTA FE........................  38  20  28  12 /  80  80  60   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  19  29   9 /  70  80  50   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  45  25  33  17 /  60  80  50   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  46  26  34  18 /  50  70  50   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  24  35  15 /  50  70  40   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  26  34  18 /  50  70  40   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  49  27  35  16 /  40  70  40   5
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  34  17 /  60  70  40   5
SOCORRO.........................  53  29  36  18 /  30  70  50  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  39  20  27  13 /  80  90  60   5
TIJERAS.........................  39  21  27  12 /  70  90  50   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  39  18  26   8 /  70 100  60  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  37  17  24  10 /  80 100  70  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  21  27  12 /  50 100  60  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  25  31  15 /  30  90  60  20
RUIDOSO.........................  46  18  26  14 /  40 100  80  20
CAPULIN.........................  32  14  25   6 / 100 100  50   5
RATON...........................  32  15  27   2 /  90  90  50   5
SPRINGER........................  33  16  27   3 / 100 100  50   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  32  15  23   5 /  90 100  60  10
CLAYTON.........................  34  17  27  10 / 100 100  50   5
ROY.............................  33  18  26   7 / 100 100  60  10
CONCHAS.........................  37  24  29   7 /  90 100  60  10
SANTA ROSA......................  38  24  29   8 /  70 100  80  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  39  26  30   7 /  80 100  70  20
CLOVIS..........................  40  25  29  11 /  50 100  80  30
PORTALES........................  42  27  30  13 /  50 100  80  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  41  28  31  14 /  60 100  80  20
ROSWELL.........................  43  29  32  15 /  20  70  80  30
PICACHO.........................  43  26  29  13 /  20  90  90  30
ELK.............................  45  25  28  13 /  20  90  90  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-538>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-511-516>518-521>523-533>537.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501>504-506>508.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519.

&&

$$

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