Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 241747 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC
WIND GUSTS OF 30KT TO 35KT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY KGUP WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 30KT AT 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO...A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN AND AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND MONDAY. THE SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD
PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND
OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MIGRATE GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY...WHERE THE TAIL END OF A SPEED
MAXIMUM ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST. A STRONGER JET STREAK
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...THEN LINGER
OVER EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH
SHOULD BE COMMON AREAWIDE MONDAY...AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY. AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE COULD EXPERIENCE GUSTS NEAR 60 MPM MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE THIRD SYSTEM SHOULD PASS FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH MORE PRECIP THAN WIND. HOWEVER...ITS TOUGH TO
SAY DEFINITIVELY BECAUSE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND TIMING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY BEFORE EASING. VENT RATES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THIS WEEK.

TODAY WILL BE DRY AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. COMBO OF FORECAST WIND AND MIN RH CONTINUES
TO RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AREA REMAINING
UNCHANGED.

RH RECOVERIES WILL WORSEN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE FAIR TO POOR. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN MONDAY AND ARE
STILL ADVERTISED TO BE STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
WEST AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST. HAINES INDICES
WILL BE MOSTLY 5 TO 6. THEREFORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT WATCH...
SO WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL. RH RECOVERIES MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIR
TO POOR...AND MAY LEAD INTO ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR
THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR TUESDAY
DUE TO FORECAST TRENDS OF A LITTLE WEAKER WINDS...AND COOLER HIGHS IN
THE EAST...TO BELOW AVERAGE. THAT SAID...FORECAST HAINES IS MODERATE
TO HIGH STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN THIRD TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRY WITH LESS WIND WEDNESDAY AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIMITED
TO VERY SPOTTY AREAS IN THE EAST CENTRAL. WINDS MAY INCREASE THURSDAY
IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME SPOTTY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE RGV FOR A LIMITED NUMBER OF HOURS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT REGARDING
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ101-103>109.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$



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