Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 280931
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 AM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UP LOW LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA TO
BRING ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY EVENING AND PUSH INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER FEEBLE CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOSED
UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NV AS OF THIS
WRITING. GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATING THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THIS MORNING AS INITIAL SPEED MAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SWINGS NORTH INTO WRN COLORADO AFTER
18Z. STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY BUT MAIN
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY. LATEST MODEL
RUNS SUGGESTING THAT THE BEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. 55-65KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
6.5-7C WILL MAKE FOR A VERY ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED TRAINING OF STORMS COULD LEAD TO SOME
FLASH FLOODING BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST AT A FAST CLIP
OF 30-35KTS...GREATLY LIMITING FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.

MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...LIFTING THE CLOSED LOW
NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SFC PUSHES INTO NM FROM THE WEST. GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH TRENDING A BIT STRONGER/DEEPER WITH A TRAILING
SHORT- WAVE TROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAIN SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACT FROM A DEEPER WAVE WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NE
AND EAST- CENTRAL NM THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR NE NM. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS AND
ECMWF DO DIFFER...HOWEVER...ON WHETHER ANOTHER MAINLY DRY
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF
FARTHER EAST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER...KEEPING
BACKDOOR FRONTS WELL EAST OF THE REGION.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET/MOIST PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW...THEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED AS THE WESTERLIES PUNCH-IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH BEGINNING TUESDAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL TREND UP THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORING
WESTERN AREAS TODAY THEN SHIFTING EAST TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY. LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WILL PICK-UP AS WELL...REACHING 5S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH GOOD MIXING WILL
BRING MOSTLY EXCELLENT VENT RATES.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN
QUICKLY TUESDAY BEFORE STABILIZING ON WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES ARE
FORECAST TO TAKE A BIT OF A HIT ON TUESDAY...BUT BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN ADVANCE OF AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH...
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY
AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND GENERALLY BOUNCE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NM FROM AZ.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AS ONE LOBE OF ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED...THUS KEPT
ONLY VCTS IN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KGUP AND KFMN. COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH KLVS ALREADY REPORTING LOW
CLOUDS. AFTER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE NEWD INTO COLORADO LATE
THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH STORM COVERAGE...THUS CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INSERT A VC MENTION IN ANY TAF. STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WINDS
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  73  51  69  40 /  70  20  30   5
DULCE...........................  69  44  65  31 /  70  50  70  10
CUBA............................  70  49  69  37 /  70  50  60  10
GALLUP..........................  72  44  70  35 /  50  20  20   5
EL MORRO........................  69  45  67  33 /  60  30  30   5
GRANTS..........................  74  48  72  36 /  50  20  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  69  49  70  40 /  50  20  20   5
GLENWOOD........................  74  50  75  44 /  50  20  20   5
CHAMA...........................  65  42  61  30 /  80  50  80  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  70  53  68  43 /  50  50  70  30
PECOS...........................  67  51  65  41 /  30  40  80  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  70  49  66  36 /  40  30  70  20
RED RIVER.......................  61  43  58  32 /  50  30  90  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  39  65  27 /  40  30  80  30
TAOS............................  68  49  65  35 /  40  30  60  20
MORA............................  65  49  64  38 /  30  30  70  30
ESPANOLA........................  74  55  73  43 /  30  30  60  10
SANTA FE........................  70  54  68  43 /  40  30  60  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  53  72  42 /  30  30  60  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  77  58  74  49 /  40  30  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  79  60  76  51 /  30  20  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  81  57  78  47 /  30  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  59  77  48 /  30  20  50  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  79  57  78  46 /  30  20  40  10
RIO RANCHO......................  80  59  77  48 /  30  20  50  20
SOCORRO.........................  80  61  81  51 /  20  10  40  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  72  51  70  43 /  40  30  60  40
TIJERAS.........................  73  50  72  44 /  40  30  60  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  47  74  38 /  20  20  60  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  70  52  69  44 /  20  20  70  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  72  55  71  47 /  20  20  60  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  75  58  75  55 /  20  10  50  20
RUIDOSO.........................  71  53  71  50 /  30  20  60  30
CAPULIN.........................  69  54  68  44 /  20  10  70  50
RATON...........................  73  52  72  42 /  10  10  70  40
SPRINGER........................  74  53  73  42 /  10  10  70  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  68  50  68  40 /  20  20  80  40
CLAYTON.........................  76  57  74  50 /   5   5  60  50
ROY.............................  72  55  70  46 /  10  20  80  40
CONCHAS.........................  78  60  77  53 /  10  10  70  30
SANTA ROSA......................  74  59  75  51 /  10  10  70  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  80  59  80  55 /   5   5  50  40
CLOVIS..........................  76  56  77  56 /   5   5  30  30
PORTALES........................  77  57  78  57 /   5   5  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  59  77  54 /  10   5  50  30
ROSWELL.........................  77  61  81  58 /   5   5  30  20
PICACHO.........................  73  57  75  54 /  20  10  40  30
ELK.............................  70  55  71  53 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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