Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 081736 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1036 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

The main focus for the next 12 hours will be strong north/northwest
winds over eastern NM. Gusts up to 40 kts are likely from KRTN and
KCAO southward to the I-40 corridor near KSXU and KTCC thru 23Z.
Winds will become light all areas aft sunset under SKC, cold temps,
and strong inversions.



.PREV DISCUSSION...233 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2017...
Stiff northerly winds aloft are ushering a weak disturbance over
northeastern New Mexico early this morning. A few light showers will
diminish around the Raton Pass and adjacent northeast highlands
before noon. Strong winds will mix down to the surface in
northeastern New Mexico through the day today with some gusts
occasionally hitting 45 mph. Despite the northerly winds,
temperatures will rebound back closer to seasonal averages today. The
warming trend will persist through the weekend with dry and much
more tranquil conditions shaping up. While a weak cold front is
expected to enter eastern New Mexico on Monday, the above average
warmth will persist through next week with mostly dry conditions


West coast ridge remains entrenched in a highly amplified fashion
while deep long wave perturbations are impacting the eastern half of
the ConUS. Winds will be the primary concern today, mostly in the
northeastern quadrant of the state where a stiff mid level jet (700mb
winds of 50-60kt) is nosing in. On the leading edge of this jet
streak, some meager forcing and ascent has led to some cloud cover
over northeastern NM and some light snow near the Raton Pass and
adjacent highlands. No appreciable accumulation is expected as these
showers wane before noon, and again the winds will be of more impact.
A wind advisory is being hoisted today to account for gusts of 45 mph
in Colfax, Union, Harding, and perhaps portions of Quay counties.

Winds aloft will decrease tonight into Saturday as pressure heights
rise and the blocking pattern holds with a weak low forming south of
the west coast ridge. Temperatures will continue to climb some 5 to
12 degrees above average on Saturday with gains of a couple more
degrees expected into Sunday. With the lighter winds aloft, a
tranquil setting will accompany the abnormal warmth.

A clipper is still prognosticated to dive southeastward out of
Alberta, Canada on Monday with a highly modified continental polar
airmass accompanying. This front will do little to dent temperatures,
and the above normal stretch will not wane. Other than a brief wind
shift in direction, this front looks to have minimal impact on
eastern NM Monday. The weak low in the blocking pattern could nudge
toward the Gulf of California Monday, introducing some high clouds to
NM, but this also will be inept at cooling temperatures much.

The low retrogrades back west into Tuesday and Wednesday while the
high amplitude ridge keeps residence over the western U.S. coast. The
European model indicates a short wave low will be able to dive
southeastward out of Alberta into the central to southern Rockies
while the GFS keeps this perturbation on a track farther east. At any
rate, this feature passes near, or into, NM in a mostly dry state with
minimal, if any, associated precipitation. As Thursday and Friday
approach, nearly the same net result is achieved from both the
European and GFS models with the high-over-low taking shape within
the block again. Late next weekend, the blocking pattern could begin
to break down, offering a more progressive storm track over the



Strong north winds across the eastern plains will be the main fire
weather concerns today. Despite the north winds, temperatures will
warm up to above seasonal averages across much of the forecast area
and relative humidity values will drop into the mid and upper teens.
The combination of the wind and low RH`s will lead to an hour or two
of marginal critical fire weather conditons this afternoon.

High amplitude upper level ridge remains on track to nudge eastward
over the weekend. Temperatures will continue to warm as a result.
Relatively light winds are forecast areawide Saturday through much
of next week. Ventilation rates underneath the eastern portion of
the upper high will lead to mainly poor vent rates Saturday through
much of next week.

ECMWF, Canadian and now the GFS showing signs that the blocking
pattern (Omega block) anchored along the west coast will start to
retrograde late next week, possibly allowing upper level troughs to
drop in from the northwest. In fact, the ECMWF and Canadian models
bring in a rouge upper level trough/closed low to near the Four
Corners as early as Wednesday night and Thursday. It`ll likely be
moisture starved but could result in improved vent rates.



Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ527-528-530-531-534.


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