Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 271750 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ALTHOUGH NOT AS MESSY OF A WEATHER SITUATION COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
UPPER LOW...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLAY FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. FMN/AEG/ABQ/SAF AND ROW ARE
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY EITHER SH OR TS. DIRECT HITS FROM TS ARE
MOST LIKELY AT ABQ/AEG AND ROW BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE SUSPECT BUT FIGURE SOMETIME BETWEEN 22Z TO 2Z. WILL
UPDATE AS SH/TS DEVELOP. MTN TOP OBSCD DUE TO PASSING SH/TS
PROBABLE BUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PASSING TS IS LIKELY TO BE
SHORT IN DURATION SO DONT HAVE THOSE CONDITIONS DEPICTED IN ANY OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. ROW IS THE MOST PROBABLE SITE
TO RECEIVE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A PASSING TS LATER TODAY. MID EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT DVLPMENT SH IMPACTS WILL BE MOST POSSIBLE AT ROW AND
CANT RULE OUT TCC BUT DONT HAVE THIS INDICATED IN THE TCC
FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT LIKELY AT THE
TERMINAL SITES LATE NIGHT AS DRIER NEAR SFC AIR IS DEPICTED TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST. WILL MONITOR ACCORDINGLY.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST. A
SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT COOLING WITH A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ON THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
FARTHER WEST...CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DRIER
AIR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS NM FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RELEGATE A LINGERING AREA OF HIGH PWATS IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE TO LOCATIONS E AND NE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY. MODELS ARE FAVORING THE NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR TODAYS BETTER QPFS...SO WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE FOR ONE MORE PERIOD. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM UNLESS WE SEE A
REASON TO CANCEL SOONER.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD FAVOR
AREAS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODELS DONT
APPEAR TO BE BRINGING MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS FROM
THE NORTHEAST WITH THURSDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IT COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITING EASTWARD
FROM THE CO ROCKIES.

DRY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
RISE NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL. THE WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE FELT ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE HIGHS SHOULD RISE 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IF MOISTURE CAN SEEP NORTHWARD UNDER A
BUILDING UPPER HIGH AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL MOVING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. A FEW MORE STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EAST WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE WEST
WILL TREND WARMER THAN TUESDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM BY
THURSDAY AS A DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
WAVE. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
THURSDAY...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS OVER
THE WEST WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A COUPLE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCOURING
OUT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR
SOME OF THE MOST WIDESPREAD COOL READINGS OF LATE SUMMER. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS RAIN AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.

THE MOST PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY ZONAL FLOW TAKING
HOLD. THE WEAKEST MIXING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND HAVE NOTED THAT VENT
RATES WILL BE QUITE POOR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BY THE WEEKEND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE ENTER A NICE BURN WINDOW WITH MUCH BETTER VENTILATION
RATES...DRY CONDITIONS...WARMING TEMPS...AND SLIGHT BREEZES DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS SOLIDLY
BREEZY WITH A 998MB SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SE COLORADO. MIN RH
VALUES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25 PERCENT...WITH RECOVERIES GOOD TO VERY
GOOD.

EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO WEAKEN THE ZONAL FLOW AND BUILD
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE FROM NM EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN MONSOON MOISTURE
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS PATTERN.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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