Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181715 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1115 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Easterly gap winds at KABQ and KSAF diminishing as of 17Z. Lingering
cigs 30-40 east central and southeast NM slowly rising/decreasing in
areal coverage through 19Z. Isold high based tstms with gusty
variable winds to 40kt possible over the higher terrain aft 19Z.
Movement will be generally toward the southeast. Moderate W-NW winds
in the Four Corners/NW part of the area this afternoon and evening
with gusts near 35kt at KFMN.


.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017...

High temperatures will fall around 5 to 20 degrees today from
yesterday`s scorching readings as a gusty back door cold front
finishes pushing westward to the continental divide. The front will
deliver just enough moisture for isolated thunderstorms to develop
mainly over the mountains east of the continental divide this
afternoon and evening. Some storms will produce little or no rain.
Through the first half of the work week, modest moisture will
continue to advect over the state from the southeast with a spotty
and gusty mix of wet and dry showers and thunderstorms favoring the
mountains and portions of the eastern plains each afternoon and
evening.The upper level high pressure system will gradually move back
overhead by the middle of the coming work week. The potential exists
for a significant heat wave to develop Tuesday through Friday.


An upper level trough exiting the northern and central Rockies into
the Great Plains caused the strong mid-level high pressure system to
shift west of New Mexico. The system also sent the aforementioned
back door cold front into the state with a reprieve from record
setting heat. However, the break from the heat will only last a few

GFS and ECMWF depict a secondary back door cool front penetrating
eastern areas Monday. This will enhance thunderstorm chances along
and just east of the central mountain chain, and possibly also across
much of the eastern plains. Modest moisture will continue to funnel
into the area out of the south and southeast Tuesday, allowing
showers and storms to return across the mountains and portions of the
plains. Another shortwave trough will exit the northern and central
Rockies Wednesday, potentially causing showers and storms to become a
bit more widespread from the central mountain chain eastward.

The upper high will migrate gradually move directly over the
forecast area around mid week causing temperatures to soar. After
highs near and below normal across central and eastern areas today
and Monday, readings will climb above normal areawide again starting
Tuesday. Highs should peak around 10-15 degrees above normal
Wednesday and Thursday, before beginning to trend downward Friday as
a long wave trough begins to carve into the northern Rockies and
upper Great Plains. Starting Tuesday, a 3-4 day stretch of triple
digit high temperatures are expected over much of the eastern plains,
middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and Northwest Plateau. The heat
wave will likely result in new high temperature records, and will
pose a threat to public health due to its length and intensity.

The long wave trough will send a moist back door cold front through
the state from the northeast Friday and Friday night with much cooler
temperatures and more widespread precipitation during the coming





The leading edge of a cooler and more humid air mass that pushed
through the east-central plains earlier this morning will gradually
advance westward and eventually spill into the Rio Grande Valley
near or shortly after daybreak.  Thereafter, diurnal mixing will
limit the westward extent of this air mass, especially NW areas, and
latest indications suggest if it does reach the Divide any low level
moisture that far west would be quite shallow.

That being said, areas just east of the Divide from Mt. Taylor/El
Morro south to the Magdalena/San Mateo ranges should experience the
most significant low level moisture surge sufficient to support high-
based dry thunderstorm activity late this afternoon into the
evening. The latest HRRR shows isolated convection as far west as
the NM/AZ line and vicinity of the Zuni Mountains. Elsewhere, a mix
of wet and dry storms, isolated in coverage, are expected in the
vicinity of the northern high terrain and areas along the central
mountain chain. The GFS remains most bullish with convective precip
coverage this afternoon/evening, while the 00Z NAM was still among
the driest models but still showing very isolated QPF in the above
mentioned areas.  Fortunately, MinRH will be much improved as
compared to recent days with no single digit values forecast. It
will also be considerably cooler in the east with decent cooling for
central areas.  But hot across the far west and the NW valleys/San
Juan Basin will be the hottest region.

Monday will be a transition day as potent high pressure aloft
centered west of the Four Corners region expands and gradually
shifts eastward to the NM/AZ line all the while strengthening.
Recycling of residual moisture will support another crop of isolated
to scattered wet/dry storms mainly northern high terrain and areas
along/east of the central mountain chain.   The hot dome of high
pressure is then modeled to center over southwest to south-central
NM by Tue/Wed. Beyond mid-week, models show the potent ridge aloft
flattening and shifting south Thu/Fri as another upper wave crosses
the central/northern Rockies. Thus, hotter and drier with a trend
toward fewer storms Wed with dry and moderately breezy conditions
Thu. The screaming message for this week will be a return to record
or near-record heat across the area with the hottest temperatures of
the year for most locations Tue through Fri. This will be a major
heat wave with potentially 3 or 4 consecutive days of triple digit
heat for most lower elevation locales. Fortunately, another moist
backdoor front is indicated this weekend. KJ




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