Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 010537 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1037 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016
06Z TAF CYCLE
Breezy to occasionally windy conditions will persist around KCQC
overnight. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions will prevail.
Mid and upper level clouds will continue to increase and thicken
through Thursday night.
.PREV DISCUSSION...302 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016...
Expect another night of very cold temperatures for northern and
western New Mexico tonight. Temperatures will remain cool into
Thursday as clouds thicken over the region. The next round of snow
showers will develop over western NM early Friday morning then
increase over central and northern NM through the day. Several
inches of snow are likely over the high terrain through Saturday
morning before the storm exits into southeastern NM. Temperatures
will remain cold through the weekend.
Temperatures will be cold again tonight w/ very dry high pressure
in place. Readings will be a few degrees warmer than last night
but still blw normal. A fast-moving shortwave arriving from the
west Thursday w/ an associated 90kt upper jet will spread a thick
batch of high clouds over NM. This will keep max temps cool despite
strong 700mb warm advection. Min temps Thursday night will trend
much warmer as clouds thicken and lower over the state.
Low level return flow will develop over eastern NM Friday as an
upper low takes shape over southwest AZ. Dynamics improve Friday
to support a band of snow over western NM that lifts north and
increases in coverage over northern NM thru Friday night. Timing
and placement of this feature is still in question, but don`t be
surprised to see at least some flurries around the RGV by Friday
morning. At this time WPC QPF/snow amounts hover near advisory in
several areas near the higher terrain north of I-40. Confidence
beyond Friday night has not increased much as there are several
important features to watch evolve directly over NM. For now, the
focus for snow will most likely shift into southern and eastern
areas as the upper low sinks into northern MX.
Extended models are now hinting at an arctic blast sometime around
Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.
Quiet pattern to continue into Thu night then at least some precip
should come into play across a good portion of the area to end up
the week. Well below normal daytime temperatures will persist
through the end of the work week and into the weekend thanks in
part to a backdoor cold front likely to push through Fri. Vent
rates, other than a sliver in the potentially good category across
central NM Fri, will be in the poor to, more locally, fair range
through the weekend. Snow and rain potential will pick up with the
backdoor front Fri then continue into Sat as a deepening upper low
drops south across AZ into northern Mexico. The combo of these two
weather features will initially favor northern NM Fri for wetting
precip, then more so areas east of the central mtn chain, peaking
Fri night into early Sat.
A relatively brief quiet and mostly dry period still looks likely
Sun into Mon morn. Vent rates will improve considerably early next
week as winds aloft increase significantly over the Desert
Southwest, transferring some momentum downward to stir up near sfc
winds somewhat. A trough aloft and Pacific cold front will
approach then push through between Mon night and Tue night,
bringing a significant daytime temp drop and another chance of