Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 281615 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1015 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER REVIEWING THE LATEST DATA INCLUDING ANTECEDENT RAINFALL THE
PAST 3 DAYS DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/GLENWOOD ZONE. PWATS ARE LESS COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE FLOODING
BASED ON RECENT RAINFALL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS SOME
OF THE BURN SCARS. THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALSO BE
WORKED OVER SOME DUE TO COLD POOLING/OUTFLOWS. MONDAY SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AND MAY NEED ANOTHER WATCH. TIS THE SEASON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...553 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 18Z TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO STEADILY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z WITH A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS ALL ZONES THEREAFTER. THOUGH THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST AND EASTERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...
CARRYING SOME EVENING SHOWERS AT KTCC BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE TO REMAIN
IN PRETTY GOOD SUPPLY...A MORE OR LESS RECYCLE MODE THROUGH MID
WEEK WHICH WILL TEND TO CREATE...AFTER THE EXPECTED GOOD CROP OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND PROBABLY AGAIN MONDAY...A BIT OF A
DOWNTURN IN THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THAT DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME GFE GLITCHES SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY A FEW MINUTES. LOOKING AT
ANOTHER PRETTY ACTIVE CONVECTION DAY TODAY. HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF FCST
AREA...WILL LINGER AND PRETTY MODEST LOW LVL ROUGHLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALSO TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AT LEAST...BUT LOW LVL FLOW DIRECTION A
LITTLE MORE VARIABLE FARTHER NORTH. CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 1000 TO
2500 ACROSS N AND CENTRAL NM...BUT A LITTLE LOWER FAR NW AND NE
TODAY AND MON AND LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY MUCH OF EAST TUE. MID LVL
THETA E VALUES REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS NORTH...WEST AND
OCCASIONALLY CENTRAL NM THROUGH MON AND EVEN MID WEEK...BUT TUE
THEY FOLLOW THE LEAD OF CAPE VALUES EAST TUE BY DROPPING THERE
SIGNIFICANTLY. AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE POSSIBLE
NE TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MON.

LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY FOR MOST LOCALES TUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP A FEW DEGREES MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AND
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE RECYCLED...ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF IS REDUCED
SOME. STILL MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOWER LVL MOISTURE LATTER HALF
OF THIS NEW WEEK...WHILE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST
NORTHWEST OF NM...SO WE MAY SEE A MODEST OR MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPTICK IN CONVECTION STARTING WED BUT MORE LIKELY THU AND FRI.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WET...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A SHORT LIVED DOWNTREND IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH PERIOD...WITH
DAILY AREAS OF POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EXTREME WESTERN UTAH...RESULTING
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS INITIALLY
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
ABOVE AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH BURN SCARS ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
PLASH FLOODING. EXTREME EASTERN AND NORTHWEST ZONES TO BE LEAST
FAVORED FOR ANY WETTING PRECIPITATION. VENTILATION TO BE POOR TO
FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES.

MONDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS WELL WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING A
BIT TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE WIND SHIFT INTO THE EAST RESULTING IN
AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST.

HEIGHTS INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY WHILE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS
AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH...WITH A REDUCTION IN CONVECTION
ACTIVITY ALL AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS WEST OF NEW MEXICO AND WIND SHIFTS
INTO THE EAST LOOK TO REINFORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508>515-527>529.

&&

$$

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