Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 150027 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
627 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Increased precipitation chances over west central and southwest areas
through the evening in accordance with radar and mesoscale model
trends.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...607 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT to ISOLD showers and thunderstorms will favor central and western
areas through the evening, then a few cells may linger near the CO
border after midnight. Microbursts could produce erratic wind gusts
near 45 kt. Drier air will move over NM from the SW on Friday.
ISOLD showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far SE
plains where there will be a little better moisture. Southwest winds
will gust in the 25-35 kt range Friday aftn and evening due to strong
winds aloft and a surface trough in the lee of the southern Rockies.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level storm system over southern Utah will weaken and lift
to the northeast overnight. Showers and thunderstorms associated
with its cold front will continue across western and central areas
this evening. Slightly cooler and drier air will move into the state
from the west late tonight and Friday. Temperatures will drop down
to near seasonal averages on Friday across western and central areas
with high temperatures remaining above average east. Saturday
remains dry except for a few thunderstorms possible in eastern Chaves
and southern Roosevelt Counties. Mid level moisture peeling off of
Tropical Storm Norma will begin increasing Saturday night and Sunday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances as a result will increase late-day
Sunday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A relatively moist southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper level
trough over southern Utah is resulting in isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. This convection will continue through
midnight or so before slightly cooler and drier air aloft moves in
from the west. Temperatures will drop to slightly below average
across western and central areas Friday with slightly above average
temps east. A few thunderstorms are possible over southeast Roosevelt
County with dry condtions elsewhere. Saturday remains dry with the
exception of a few storms over southern Chaves and southern Roosevelt
Counties.

All eyes then turn to Tropical Storm Norma and the deep subtropical
moisture to the north. Global models continue to stick with their
respective guns for Sunday and beyond. 12Z GFS, 18Z NAM, and the 12Z
NAEFS continue to bring Norma ashore over the Baja tip around 18Z
Sunday. The southerly flow at all levels ahead of Norma starts to
increase PWATS in NM by Sunday afternoon, resulting in an increase
in shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday, especially from the RGV
east. Shower and thunderstorms will likely continue well into the
evening hours and possibly overnight Sunday as strong deformation
continues over NM between the strong southwest flow aloft over AZ and
weak southwest winds near an upper level ridge axis over LA. ECMWF
remains the outlier, taking Norma west of Cabo San Lucas late- day
Sunday and then westward thereafter. ECMWF does now show subtropical
moisture north of Norma slowly increasing from the south Sunday which
is a change from previous runs. Model consensus shows remnant
moisture peeling off of Norma Monday. At this point, it`s looking
like Monday stands to be the wettest day with deep moisture
interacting with with a stout southwest flow aloft to generate at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms over all but the far
northwest. GFS weakens Norma rapidly as it moves newd to just
northwest of Big Bend National Park Monday night. Copious moisture
and a weak warm core circulation, however, could make Monday night
quite wet for the southeast third of the state if the GFS and NAEFS
solutions pan out.

GFS and ECMWF agree on a deep and broad upper level trough getting
carved out across much of the western U.S. around mid week. Big
differences now exist as to moisture availability from the subtropics
and how far south the above mentioned trough/upper low end up Friday
and Saturday. 12Z ECMWF is much farther south, wetter and cooler
than the GFS both days.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper low off the coast of CA has moved inland into southern NV
this afternoon. With an upper high S of NM, this has set up the jet
core squarely over the desert SW with plenty of diffluence aloft
allowing fast moving afternoon tstorms over western NM. Mtn waves
lee of the Sangre`s have also caused enough instability for a few
storms to develop over the NE plains. Storms across the west will be
capable of producing erratic strong downburst gusts upwards to 50-
60kts with brief mod-hvy rain and hail. A few storms will make it
into ctrl NM later in the afternoon and evening before convection
dies down after sunset areawide.

Friday, the trough will cut across N of NM pushing a Pacific front
across the NW two-thirds of the state. This will bring an
accompanying drop in temps, bringing an end to the near record highs
across the SE. Although MixHgts fall tomorrow a dry slot associated
with the trough will mix down plenty of dry air ending any chance
for wetting rain over the area. SW winds also mix down bringing
breezy conditions over the west, NE plains and central highlands.
Saturday will be similar to Fri albeit with weaker SW winds. MinRH`s
both days will fall but are expected to remain a hair above critical
threshold.

Models are beginning to come more in line with tropical moisture
entering NM by Sunday into Monday from what is now Tropical Storm
Norma. Tropical moisture being spun up from Norma and into the SW
flow could spark off afternoon rounds of convection and increase
Td`s across the south and east as soon as Sunday and into Monday.
The ECMWF still lags behind in timing by Tue-Thu. After that, a deep
trough moving into intermtn west will push out Norma`s remnants and
bringing back stronger and drier SW-W flow, also dropping MixHgts
considerably as well.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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