Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 152354
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. WHILE SOME DECREASE IN
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET...A FEW COLLIDING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONT SPREADING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN SOME STORMS EVEN BEYOND MIDNIGHT. ANY STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS IN DOWNPOURS
WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT
KSAF AND KABQ WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH 15/0800UTC. IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IMPACTING KRTN...KLVS...KTCC...KCVN...AND
KROW WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR KCQC AND KSRR. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING MOSTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO.


52
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD INTO
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...INTRODUCING GUSTY CONDITIONS DOWNWIND OF
CANYONS. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW MOISTURE TO RISE IN A SUBTLE
MANNER. INTO TUESDAY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL ALSO WORK
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER COVERAGE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SOME. BY
THURSDAY A VERY DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE INTO NEW
MEXICO AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE APPROACH THE STATE.
THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE WEEK...DEALING WITH ODILE OR ITS
REMNANTS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY...FOCUS HAS
BEEN ON A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS AND
SHOULD DRIVE SOME GAP/CANYON WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF NM
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION SOME SUBTLE INCREASES IN MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD LET STORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH INTERACTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY ALLOWING STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...POSSIBLY SUSTAINING
ON THE LEADING EDGE THEREAFTER.

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF NOW HURRICANE ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NM ON TUESDAY. HAVE OPTED TO JOIN EL
PASO AND HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
IMPACTED BY THE WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. HEALTHY PWATS BETTER
THAN AN INCH WILL COUPLE WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS TO EXACERBATE
FLOODING THREAT.

BY WEDNESDAY THE TREND OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CREEPING NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT WILL BE A SLOW ONE. FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE
ON THE LOCATION OF ODILE WHICH SHOULD BE INLAND AND DOWN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LOCATION COULD RANGE FROM UPPER BAJA
PENINSULA TO SONORAN DESERT OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE
GFS BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE/PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. EUROPEAN MODEL IS ALSO FAIRLY QUICK/PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOTION OF ODILE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH EL PASO AND WPC...HAVE OPTED TO BLEND FORECAST WITH EUROPEAN
AND GFS...EVEN THOUGH THE GFS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO. THIS WILL
HAVE MORE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY.

THE GFS BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE RIGHT OVER NM AND THE ABQ
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THIS WOULD QUICKLY RAMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...WITH WIDESPREAD 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES...WHICH COULD BE
RAISED EVEN FURTHER IF SOME CONTINUITY IS OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT
MODEL RUN OR TWO. THIS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
A CRITICAL PERIOD THAT SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND INVIGORATE ONGOING CONVECTION. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY...WETTING RAINS WILL BE MORE LIKE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WELL. GOOD CHANCES WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND ALLOW ABOVE NORMAL
WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST...AIDED BY ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MIXED-BAG OF VENT RATES.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS HANGING ON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NM AND IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW. RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BTWN 18-20Z TO VFR.
MVFR CIGS...AND EVEN SOME IFR...FORECAST TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AT KTCC AND KLVS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. KROW
WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT AS WELL...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW ON
THE FRONT MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT KLVS AND KSAF LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY
WHEN THE BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES. LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS AT KAEG...KABQ AND KGUP THIS EVENING. AN EAST CANYON/GAP
WIND FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AT KSAF AND KABQ. GUSTS TO
32KTS FORECAST AT KABQ AND MAY COME CLOSE TO AVIATION WEATHER
WARNING BRIEFLY THIS EVENING.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-509.

&&

$$







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