Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251740 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

Upper high meandering over NM next 24 hours. Mts occasionally
obscd in sct showers and thunderstorms. Cell movement to be
erratic and driven by terrain and outflow boundaries. Localized
mvfr cigs/vsbys and wnd gusts to around 40kt possible in the
stronger storms. Storms along the central mt chain may result in
localized gusty east winds into the RGV at times. Sct showers with
isold embedded thunderstorms may persist aft 06Z, and local mvfr
cigs may develop over portions of the central and ne highlands and
ern plains between 26/06Z and 26/12Z, potentially affecting KLVS
and KTCC.


Temperatures will generally trend downward today and especially
Tuesday as some better moisture arrives. An uptick in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms will be noted today and especially
Tuesday, when a weak disturbance will pass just north of New
Mexico enhancing precipitation. A few storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour both
days, mainly over western and northern parts of the state. Drier
air will move in during the middle to latter part of the week with
a downtick in thunderstorm coverage and rain intensity. Temperatures
should also trend upward again.


The upper trough exiting the northern and central Rockies onto the
Great Plains Tuesday will shift the loosely organized mid-level
high pressure system NW of NM. The high is progged to vary its
position around the NV/UT/AZ border through Thursday or Friday
before potentially drifting eastward toward the Four Corners
again. Models aren`t very consistent on when or how far east the
high will drift. Thus, after PWATs peak from 1 to 1.25 inches
Tuesday, they will fall to the 0.5-0.75 inch range across central
and northwest areas during the mid to latter part of the week. The
decrease in moisture will be less noted across eastern areas,
where a back door cold front may arrive Wednesday. This front
could keep convection pretty active across the east for another
day, before it trends downward there, too. The southwest mountains
should be favored areas for showers and storms during the latter
half of the week as better moisture lingers longest there. At
this time, Thursday is looking like the warmest day of the week
with high temperatures around 3 to 14 degrees above normal.



Deeper moisture in place today and Tuesday is expected to create a
significant uptick in the coverage of slow-moving storms with heavy
rainfall. An east/northeast wind shift entering the eastern plains
today will help focus more widespread convection over the plains, as
well as trend temps down several degrees from the recent record heat.
The potential for flooding on recent burn scars will increase the
next 2 days compared to much of this season.

An unfortunate drying and warming trend will begin again over western
NM Wednesday as the center of the upper high rebuilds and focuses on
the Four Corners. A large dry airmass currently over the Great Basin
will move under this high and bring a return to very low min rh into
Friday. Dewpoint values may fall as low as the upper 20`s across San
Juan County Thursday. Storm coverage will mainly focus on the higher
terrain each day with much smaller heavy rainfall footprints through
Friday and perhaps even Saturday. Fortunately, no signficant winds
appear likely outside of erratic and gusty outflows.

The upper high is shown to drift east starting Saturday and Sunday as
a trough develops along the west coast. This could bring a return to
a more typical monsoon flow pattern over central and western NM for
much of next week. Models are however at odds with how far east the
upper high shifts. Given the overall tendency for the high center to
focus over NM this season will be conservative in advertising any
change to cooler temps and more widespread storm coverage for now.





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