Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 220532 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1132 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Lower forecaster confidence in general this TAF cycle with
potential for MVFR conditions in low stratus/fog at a number of
terminals, but forecaster confidence too low to include in TAFs
except at KROW. Sided with more conservative 00z GFS MOS favoring
mostly VFR conditions overnight. Otherwise, another round of
showers and storms forecast Monday afternoon/evening with the
greatest chances for impacts at KFMN, KSAF, KAEG, KABQ and KLVS,
and generally ranking in that order. MVFR impacts likely with
storms Monday, although short-lived IFR impacts are possible.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Below average daytime temperatures and daily rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will characterize much of the remainder of the
week. A series of weak lows aloft over and just offshore of
southern California will slowly make their way eastward through
mid-week...with the last in the series expected to pass over the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another cold front will back
into northeast New Mexico late Wednesday night...further boosting
storm coverage for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Shortwave trough slowly translating northeast over central New
Mexico this afternoon with perhaps a slight negative tilt.
Associated vort max/well-defined cyclonic swirl noted west of
Socorro earlier today, but vort lobe looks to become increasing
stretched east-west remainder of the evening. Thus favorable set
up in the upper-levels, particularly NC-NE zones. The one
unfavorable trend-- early afternoon temperatures are lagging
those yesterday at this time by several degrees for many areas to
include Santa Fe to ABQ to Socorro. Convective temperature at ABQ
around 80F, and thus widespread SHRA/TSRA development being kept
in check but SHRA/TSRA are rapidly increasing to the west and
southwest of ABQ where surface heating was more effective. LAPS
and mesoanalysis currently showing most unstable air mass across
the northeast (CAPE >2000 J/kg)...and along the Divide in western
NM. Precipitable water greater than 1 inch across the southeast
half with values near 1.5 inches southeast corner where impressive
rainfall totals observed since midnight.

Going into Monday...high over low or quasi-Rex block upstream over
and just off-shore southern California in the process of breaking
down as a strong wave drops into the Inland NW . Models in
general agreement bringing the first in a series of weak lows
aloft toward the Four Corners on Monday, with a more significant
wave/low approaching during the day Tuesday then very slowly
translating east squarely over New Mexico late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Operative word is slowly, as the mid-level trough axis
may actually stall/morph into secondary weak low over the state
for Wed/Thu. The 12z GFS hints at the possibility. Should be an
active/wet period. Attempted to show an upward trend in PoP for
this period although still looking at fairly active days ahead
with smaller scale/meso details to dictate day to day trends.

Another back door front indicated to push into northeast areas
Wednesday night with another surge on Thursday. This will again
increase the coverage of showers and storms, especially near and
east of the central mountain chain and perhaps as far west as the
Divide again.  KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A fair amount of shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon,
with storms even occurring across the east central plains. Storm
intensities have been rather tame thus far, owing to morning cloud
cover and then an early start for the days convection. Nonetheless,
there will remain a chance of heavy rain through the evening,
especially if some better heating can occur through the breaks in
the clouds to allow the atmosphere to become more unstable. Storms
will generally move toward the north and northeast around 10 mph.
Otherwise, breezy to locally windy conditions will continue into the
early evening across northeast NM. Tonight, good to excellent
relative humidity recoveries are expected once again.

Models continue to show some drier west/southwesterly flow moving
into the state on Monday, which should result in a downtick in storm
coverage. Despite the trough looking somewhat sharper as it
approaches NM on Tuesday, with the drier air moving in on Monday,
that will limit the potential on Tuesday for widespread convection.
Thus Tuesday`s storm coverage should be similar to or somewhat less
than Monday. Northwest NM could be favored for storms Tuesday
evening as the low/trough moves overhead.  Otherwise, a lee side
trough will keep breezy to windy conditions each afternoon and early
evening across northeast NM.

The trough seems to be slower to move across the state than models
were indicating yesterday -- still dragging slowly across the state
on Wednesday. Strong storms will favor eastern NM on Wednesday
afternoon thanks to lift from the slower trough and a back door cold
front sliding down the plains. The front looks like it may squeak
through the central mountain chain gaps early Thursday, but a
stronger east wind in the Rio Grande Valley may actually occur
Thursday night.

Thursday and Friday look to remain active in terms of showers and
thunderstorms. Then, drier air may again work into the state over
next weekend with light westerly flow aloft. We shall see.

Temperatures will remain near to below normal throughout the week.
Ventilation rates will continue to improve on Monday, except for far
NW NM where poor rates are possible. Good or better vent rates will
prevail for Tues/Wed but may lower again on Thursday. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

33



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