Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS65 KABQ 110938
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
338 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOMEWHAT MORE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS
ACROSS MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOMEWHAT THICKER CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOME MODEST TOP DOWN MOISTENING CONTINUES...
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTRAL
AND WEST. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BY A COLDER
SYSTEM ALONG WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SURGING ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY TO SUNDAY
NIGHT. FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. FOR THIS PERIOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEST CENTRAL AND EAST...AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY STRETCH FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY
NORTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY...THEN BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DESPITE
A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS TODAY. WHILE CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY TRIM HIGH TEMPS POTENTIAL BY AT LEAST 2 TO 4 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY...STILL ARE EXPECTING AFTN HIGHS ON
AVERAGE TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SOME
MARGINALLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BUILD NEAR AND MAINLY
EAST OF THE TX LINE...BUT STILL SEEING AT LEAST SOME MIXING OUT
AND OR EROSION BACK EAST OF GOOD BIT OF WHAT MOISTURE DOES TRY TO
WORK TOWARD E NM. MODELS ALL STILL SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF PRECIP THERE NOR IS SPC SHOWING ANY GENERAL OR OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE SO KEPT AREA PRECIP FREE FOR NOW. WINDS
A BIT LIGHTER TODAY.

AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SAT AND A WEAK
UPPER LOW/TROUGH TRACKS INTO WESTERN NM...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTHWEST HALF WITH THIS FEATURE. DID GO
AHEAD AND CONVERT MOST OF THE LOWER POPS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
DRY ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR SAT. HEALTHY BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SWEEP INTO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS SUN THEN MAY PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATE SUN NIGHT TO MON MORNING. HIGHS FALL A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES
OR MORE CENTRAL AND EAST MONDAY...AND WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
MANY DAYS. LATER SUN INTO MON A MUCH COLDER MID AND UPPER TROUGH
CHUGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BE
ABLE TO INITIATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MTS EAST
INTO FAR NE PLAINS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SANGRE ON EAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORN AND DID BOOST
POPS...QPF AND SNOW AMTS THE MOST FOR THAT SUN NIGHT PERIOD FOR
THAT AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT THIS LOOKS TO NOT BE AS COLD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES ARE NEAR ZERO IN MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40...WHICH HAS LED IMPRESSIVELY LOW OVERNIGHT RH VALUES. THE
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE TX LINE WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE
HAS PROVIDED SOME RELIEF. THIS MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT LATER TODAY
AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THURSDAY SO NO WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE STATE
WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH 6 HAINES...AND EVEN SUPER
HAINES FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO SLIDE OVER THE
STATE TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AGAIN WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CLIMAX OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
FOR SATURDAY.

A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL EJECT EAST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE. DEEP MIXING
IN THE DRY SLOT WILL TAP STRONG WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN WINDY TO
PERHAPS VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE SANDIA/MANZANO/GALLINAS MTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. RED
FLAG WARNING ALREADY IN PLACE LOOKS GREAT SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN FOCUS AGAIN OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM SUNDAY. FORTUNATELY TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL AS A MUCH
COOLER UPPER WAVE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SAG INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE AREA HOWEVER HAINES
VALUES TREND DOWN TO 3 OR 4 AND TEMPS COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.

A DYNAMIC SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A VERY WELCOME COOL
DOWN WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH THE BACK
DOOR FRONT AND GAP WINDS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
WETTING PRECIP AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE TRENDING UP
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECEIVED THIS FIRE SLOWING PATTERN MAY CONTINUE
FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER DRY INTRUSION PLAGUES THE AREA.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
QUASI-STATIONARY BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS MAY PUSH
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NE HIGHLANDS AND DISSIPATE AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY. WITH BKN-OVC
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT...WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
LIGHT FOR MOST SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  77  42  72  41 /   0   0  10  10
DULCE...........................  73  35  66  35 /   0   5  10  10
CUBA............................  73  35  68  37 /   0   5  10  10
GALLUP..........................  75  34  70  33 /   0   5  10  10
EL MORRO........................  72  31  66  30 /   0   5  10  10
GRANTS..........................  76  35  71  34 /   0   5  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  75  37  71  35 /   0   5   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  82  36  77  36 /   0   0   0  10
CHAMA...........................  65  33  61  28 /   0   5  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  75  44  69  41 /   0   5   5  10
PECOS...........................  72  41  68  40 /   0   5   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  70  31  67  32 /   0   5  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  63  33  61  26 /   0   5  10  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  65  33  63  30 /   0   5  10  10
TAOS............................  72  34  69  33 /   0   5   5  10
MORA............................  71  39  67  39 /   0   5   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  78  39  74  38 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  74  42  71  39 /   0   5   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  77  41  74  40 /   0   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  78  49  76  46 /   0   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  80  50  77  48 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  81  46  79  43 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  81  47  78  46 /   0   0   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  83  44  80  45 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  80  49  77  47 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  83  51  82  48 /   0   0   0  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  75  45  73  45 /   0   5   0  10
TIJERAS.........................  76  47  74  45 /   0   5   5  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  77  38  75  40 /   0   5   0  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  74  42  72  41 /   0   5   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  76  45  75  43 /   0   0   0  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  78  48  78  46 /   0   5   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  72  48  72  45 /   0   5   0  10
CAPULIN.........................  75  39  73  36 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  78  38  77  37 /   5   5   5  10
SPRINGER........................  77  40  77  38 /   5   5   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  75  43  73  41 /   0   5   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  80  49  83  46 /   5   5   5  10
ROY.............................  78  46  79  42 /   5   5   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  83  49  83  46 /   5   5   0  10
SANTA ROSA......................  83  48  82  47 /   0   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  85  50  87  49 /   5   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  83  48  85  48 /   5   5   0   5
PORTALES........................  84  50  86  50 /   5   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  85  52  89  50 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  90  53  93  53 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  83  50  83  50 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  77  50  77  48 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ104-106>109.

&&

$$

43






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.