Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171756
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

The main two aviation impacts through the forecast area will be areas
of smoke aloft due to area wildfires and the backdoor cold front that
will be increasing winds over most of the area. Smoke impacts are
expected to limited to the KSAF area, although at this time the TAF
site is expected to stay above six miles visibility. Winds will
increase today over most locations ahead of the backdoor front. Today
winds will generally increase from the west with some gusty
conditions before easing off before increasing in the 08-09Z time
frame as the front pushes south. Winds will increase significantly
at KABQ, KTCC, and KROW in the 10-12Z time frame as the front pushes
south.

Other than wind impacts, all locations are expected to remain
VFR. Some mid to lower level clouds may develop at KLVS and KTCC as
the front pushes through. Some guidance is hinting that a MVFR deck
could develop at KLVS in the 10-14Z time frame, but at this time
confidence is not high enough to include more than a mid-level
scattered layer.

54/Fontenot


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017...
...ANOTHER DAY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT, THEN A BREAK BEHIND A GUSTY COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will bring record and near record high temperatures areawide as
a strong ridge of high pressure persists overhead. A windy back door
cold front will plow southward through the eastern plains tonight
with northeasterly wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph. The front will also
produce a gusty east canyon wind in the Rio Grande Valley early
Sunday morning. The front will deliver just enough moisture for some
drier variety showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening
over the mountains and northeast. It will also drop high temperatures
around 5 to 20 degrees below today`s readings central and east,
bringing brief relief from the oppressive heat. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms will persist mainly in the mountains and
northeast through the first half of the coming week as temperatures
trend hotter and hotter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will continue the Heat Advisory for east central and southeast areas
today as the oppressive heat continues. The east will be the big
benefactor from tonight`s back door cold front.

The upper ridge will retreat westward a bit as the cold front
arrives. Moisture with the front will help spark daily rounds of
mainly mountain and mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms
through the first half of the coming week. The storms will be drier
the farther west you go across the forecast area.

The upper high will migrate gradually more directly over the forecast
area as the work week progresses with a string of record and near
record warmth likely during the middle to latter half of the coming
work week.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND UNSTABLE WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT
TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME RELIEF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER,
ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY OF ACTIVE FIRES SUNDAY...MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

Yet another record dry upper-air sounding at ABQ this past evening
and the third or fourth this week. Several mid to high elevation
locations, including the Los Alamos airport, have not seen RH recover
to 20 percent or higher since June 14th.  Unfortunately, no
significant changes to the exceptionally dry, hot and unstable
pattern today. In fact, maximum temperatures are expected to trend 2-
3 degrees hotter as compared to Friday resulting in record or near-
record heat areawide.

Of particular concern late today into the evening will be moderate
westerly winds during peak heating.  Wind speeds near the top of the
mixed layer (14-16kft AGL) will be slightly stronger than they were
yesterday in response to an upper trough crossing the northern
Rockies. Given a deeply mixed boundary layer, trended above model
guidance for sustained speeds across the north this PM and would not
be surprised to hear of occasional gusts in the 20-30mph range near
the northern-most active fires between 4-9PM. Could result in a
briefly critical period. Otherwise, widespread and prolonged single
digit relative humidities will persist for all but the highest
terrain of the north as well as the far northeast. Haines of 6
areawide with pockets of 6+ or Super Haines, mostly south of i-40.
Overall, another brutal day in store.

Important and welcomed changes for Sunday. The leading edge of a
cooler air mass (in wake of the northern Rockies shortwave) will
reach our northeast plains this evening. This cold front will plow
southward tonight and press westward toward the east slopes of the
central mountain chain just before daybreak Sunday. The relatively
moist easterly surge should spill into the Rio Grande Valley early
Sunday morning, and slowly advance toward the Divide by midday
before stalling and mixing back eastward during the afternoon.  The
GFS advertises the strongest westward-push, while the NAM and ECMWF
have trended weaker.  Regardless, this backdoor front will bring a
brief respite from the heat and intense dryness. MaxT`s on Sunday
are forecast to be below seasonal average in the east, and
noticeably cooler between the Divide and east slopes of the central
mountain chain. Advisory level north to northeast winds are possible
on the plains tonight/early Sunday, while gusty easterly gap winds
mark the arrival of the cooler air into the RGV early Sunday.  MinRH
values Sunday will be 10-25 percent higher central/east and slightly
higher far west ending the stretch of single digit RH days, except
near the AZ border.  The renewed moisture will also support small
chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening,
over mainly the northern higher terrain in the afternoon, but
expanding into the northeast highlands and plains and western high
terrain Sunday evening. Storms over the west Sunday evening will be
mostly dry.

Monday will be a day of transition before a more significant heat
wave develops by the middle of next week. Strong high pressure aloft
building along the NM/AZ line Monday will expand and gradually shift
eastward during the mid to late part of next week.  This will result
in a major, record-breaking heat wave across the area with the
period Wednesday through Friday looking especially brutal with the
hottest temperatures of the year for most locations. Enough moisture
looks to be trapped under a strengthening ridge to produce isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity
over the higher terrain and east Monday and Tuesday. Unfortunately,
the storms west and central could produce dry lightning.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ534>538.

&&

$$

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