Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
EARLIER HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE NAILED REDEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CONT DVD. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY RACING
SOUTHWEST THRU THE PLAINS WILL SERVE TO FOCUS EVEN MORE DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THIS AREA. PLACED VCSH AT MOST TAF SITES
FROM KSAF/KABQ WEST THRU 09-10Z BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR AMENDMENTS WITH TS
IF ANY PARTICULAR AREA BECOMES FAVORED. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL
LINGER FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN/WESTERN NM THRU ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SOME
BRIEF CLEARING DEVELOPS. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE DAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM
THE LOW LEVEL FRONT IN PLACE. HAD TO GO WITH LENGTHY VCTS AROUND
KGUP...AND FROM KLVS TO KTCC. MODELS ARE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AFT 00Z FOR THESE AREAS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014...
.DISCUSSION...
BIG DIFFERENCE IN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTH BETWEEN THIS
MORNINGS AND YESTERDAY MORNINGS SOUNDING TELLING THE STORY.
SIMILAR DEWPOINTS AND SFC HEATING RESULTING IN MUCH MORE CONVECTION
TODAY. BETTER/DEEPER MIXING ALSO ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FRIDAY. CLAYTON JUST HIT 100F BREAKING A DAILY RECORD
WITH TUCUMCARI ALREADY UP TO 103F AND ABQ SUNPORT AT 99F.

BACKDOOR FRONT STARTING TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS
FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO
THE TX BORDER AS STORM MOTION IS VERY LIGHT TO NIL AND PWATS IN
THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EAST THROUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. SYNOPTIC SCALE ELY SFC/LOW LEVEL FLOW SUNDAY FORENOON
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL AND WRN NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HELPING TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING IN THESE AREAS
AS WELL. FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF STRONG EAST
WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS LIKELY AN HOUR OR TWO
PRIOR TO SUNSET CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ON
MONDAY. MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO AREAS WEST
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. 12Z AND 18Z NAM12 BOTH INDICATING THAT AN
MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS MONDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PROPAGATE EWD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

A MORE TYPICAL ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO DISCERNIBLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING TO HELP THINGS BUT PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS. GFS SHIFTS MOST ACTIVITY TO CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT WWD AND WITH SLY TO SELY SFC FLOW...COULD GET STRONG
STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
MONSOON PLUME WEST OF STATE. TODAYS ROUND OF WETTING RAIN TO FAVOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE IN THE WORKS
STARTING SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES...AND A VIGOROUS BACK
DOOR FRONT MOVES THE EASTERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASE ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK SUPPORTING SEVERAL MOIST INTRUSIONS
FROM THE EAST AND A GENERAL UPTICK IN THE WETTING RAIN PATTERN.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINTS WILL
BE RELATIVELY SMALL. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE GOOD IN THESE
AREAS WITH FAIR RECOVERIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU...THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.

SUNDAY WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES WELL
INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY LATE
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY THEN STRENGTHEN
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...USHERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN WESTERN ZONES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
STATEWIDE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO IMPROVE AS WELL WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES MOST LOCATIONS.

MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS ON MONDAY AS THE
MONSOON PLUME MOISTENS UP A BIT AND EDGES TO THE EAST...SETTING UP
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL SUPPORTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAIN MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY...WITH THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SEEING THE LEAST ACTIVITY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL STAY RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTENT MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL OR BELOW ACROSS THE EAST.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ515-527-528-530-531.

&&

$$







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