Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 222354 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS EVENING INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND THE FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. AN ARC OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREAS WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH 03Z.
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO 5SM AND CIGS TO 035 ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE CORE OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. FARTHER EAST STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SEVERAL LOCALES MAY SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
INCLUDING THE AREA AROUND CANNON AFB AND CLOVIS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TIL ABOUT 05 OR 06Z. THESE STORMS ARE
STRONGER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS. A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SKC OVERNIGHT...
LEAVING BEHIND A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY FOR TOMORROW.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER WET DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE REPLACED BY A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER WARMING AND DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN
ARIZONA MOVES EAST OVER NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PWATS WERE ABOVE NORMAL (115-140%) AS OF THE 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS...IN CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY EVENING`S 00Z SOUNDINGS WHICH
GENERALLY INDICATED BELOW NORMAL PWATS. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ (WHICH
WAS A CLOSED LOW AS OF 12Z) RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF RAIN THAT
MOVED UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COVERED MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS MOSTLY BROKEN-UP...WITH LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING GIVING WAY TO A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY ON THE UPTREND. 12Z MODELS (INCLUDING OUR LOCAL
WRF) INDICATE A FAIRLY NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE PROLONGED ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 90S AND
STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE PRESENT.

THE FORECAST TREND FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE A
DRYING/WARMING ONE. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND NAM SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DROP-OFF IN PWATS
THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO NOTICEABLE DOWNTREND IN
CONVECTION SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WON`T HELP THAT SITUATION FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS SATURDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY...EVEN 5
OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EASTERN PLAINS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...
TROPICAL STORM MARIE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE AND MOVE NORTHWEST ON THE HEELS OF TROPICAL STORM
LOWELL. THIS IS WORTH MENTIONING BECAUSE SOME OF THE MOISTURE THAT
WORKED INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOWELL AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL TO TAP MARIE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT SAID...THE SETUP DOESN`T APPEAR AS FAVORABLE GIVEN A MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINES. THE ECMWF
IS THE MORE RAIN-FAVORABLE MODEL GOING INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A SLOWER...DEEPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS COLORADO AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER
DRYING/WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER HIGH
TRANSITIONS EAST AND BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWARD MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ENHANCE WETTING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. BREEZY WINDS NEAR 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST BECAUSE OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING. WINDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT.

DURING THE WEEKEND...DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT
WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GRADUALLY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST...NEAR NORMAL IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
MODERATELY BREEZY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A LOWERING TREND ON SUNDAY. NOT NEARLY AS STRONG OF A
WIND FLOW COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EAST.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS WANT TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH...COMBINED A PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH.
THIS PATTERN COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING WETTING STORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
MUCH MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE MORE BULLISH THAN OTHERS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
ALSO IN THE CARDS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THAT FEATURE WOULD RAISE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
EAST. THE LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY KEEPS THE NEXT WEEK
PERIOD IN A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE LEVEL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS.

32/50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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