Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period. Westerly surface
winds will increase by midday through the late afternoon, thanks in
part to a deepening lee side trough. Wind gusts could reach 30kt to
40kt at times near terminals.


.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017...

Winds will strengthen and there will be fire weather concerns today
as dry air continues to move over the area from the west and
southwest. Gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range are expected this
afternoon across the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo Mountains, as
well as portions of the east central plains near Interstate 40.
Lighter winds are expected Wednesday. An upper level low pressure
system will deepen over the northwest United States on Wednesday
night drawing moisture for showers and thunderstorms northward over
central and western New Mexico starting Thursday. Precipitation will
become more widespread Thursday night through Friday night as the
upper low tracks slowly eastward over the central and northern
Rockies. Drier air will shift gradually eastward over western New
Mexico again this weekend and temperatures will trend downward, but a
stream of moisture and precipitation is forecast to persist across
portions of the eastern plains where there will be the potential for
severe thunderstorms.


A long wave trough will gradually deepen over the western US for the
remainder of the week with the first batch of shortwave energy
ejecting over the northern and central Rockies today. This shortwave
trough will steer 500-700 mb layer averaged winds in the 20-40 kt
range over the forecast area, while inducing a surface lee trough
with breezy to windy conditions. Fire weather concerns look to favor
western areas where fuels will be drier, but the strongest winds
should be found across the northern mountains and east central

After a break from the winds in the wake of the first shortwave on
Wednesday, winds will shift more out of the south and become
breezy again Thursday and Friday as the longwave trough begins to
move slowly inland. However, humidities will also increase over New
Mexico as showers and thunderstorms become more widespread. Both the
GFS and ECMWF depict a steady stream of moisture for showers and
thunderstorms flowing north and northeastward over eastern New Mexico
Friday through Sunday. These have the potential to produce from 3/4
to 1 3/4 inches of rain across much of the plains, with locally over
2 inches in some spots. The shear and CAPE profiles look favorable
for some strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging
winds. Isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled out.

A gusty and moist back door cold front is then forecast to dive
southwestward into the state Sunday night and Monday, re-invigorating
showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central mountain
chain. Since the base of the longwave trough will remain west of New
Mexico, the shear profile may remain favorable for some severe storms
at least over southeast areas on Monday.



A short wave trough crossing the Rockies today will bring a round of
strong winds to the forecast area. They will combine with a warm and
dry airmass to produce critical fire weather conditions today. Have
decided to upgrade Zones 101 and 105 to a Red Flag Warning, but not
the eastern zones. Recent rain in the northeast has moistened up the
0-10cm sub-surface soil and fine fuels are not conducive to rapid
fire growth and spread. Also only low to moderate Haines indices in
the east. It has been drier in the northwest and while fuels are
still alive, the fine fuels are dry. Bottom line, this should not be
a high impact event despite the strong winds and low humidities.

A weak back door front will slip into the northeast tonight but wash
out Wednesday. So, another dry and warm day on tap, but winds will
be less as the flow aloft weakens. It will still be breezy over the
western and northern mountains into the northeast and an hour or two
of critical fire weather conditions may be reached, but should be
very isolated. Vent rates will be less Wednesday in most areas, with
a small patch of fair to poor rates in the far northwest.

A shift to a wetter weather pattern still expected for the end of
this week into next week. Models not as excited about bringing in a
lot of moisture right away on Thursday, but more of a seepage
Thursday into Friday. Nevertheless isolated showers and storms will
manage to develop in the western high terrain Thursday afternoon,
all mountain areas Thursday night and all of the CWA on Friday into
Friday night. Severe weather is not out of the question in the east.
Max temperatures will lower while humidities come up, with good to
excellent RH recoveries Thursday and Friday nights.

A closed low will be developing in the northwest the rest of this
week with a deep trough over the west. The trough will lift
northeast this weekend and actually bring some drying to the west,
while the east should remain active. Additional energy left behind
the trough will organize into a closed low off Baja CA early next
week. At the same time a strong back door front will drop south into
NM. With moisture arriving from all directions it should continue
unsettled through the first half of next week, at least in the east.
After that? If the GFS is right a remnant tropical disturbance will
bring copious moisture to the state later next week. The ECMWF and
CMC are less convinced, keeping it to our south.



Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-105.



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