Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 272342
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
442 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES ON FRIDAY.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS WESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE. WINDS
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD WILL STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND IN THE EAST TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEST AND CENTRAL
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NO MAJOR STORM
SYSTEMS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY WITH SOME CIRRUS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED THERE AFTER THE COOL READINGS ON FRIDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS
NORTHWEST NM...WHICH MAY BE NOTICEABLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT FRIDAY AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS.
GUIDANCE IS NEAR RECORD OR BETTER FOR SOME LOCALES NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL...MOST NOTABLY AT CLAYTON AND RATON...SO WENT AHEAD AND
EXPANDED THE RECORD HIGH HIGHLIGHTS TO THOSE AREAS.

WINDS INCREASE MORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS 500 MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO FALL AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SOME
NEAR TO RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY. THE FRONT
SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY IN THE PLAINS APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER...AND
MAY ALLOW HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST TO BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
INDICATES RIGHT NOW. THE FRONT PLUNGES DOWN THE PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL FALL A GOOD 15 TO 30 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY/S HIGHS...AND INTO BELOW AVERAGE TERRITORY.

GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL MODERATE QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT GIVEN THE SOURCE OF THE AIR MASS...THIS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC. IN ADDITION...THE MOIST WESTERLY WINDS AND WEAK SHORT
WAVES INDICATED TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
WEST TUESDAY...APPEARS A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE IN NEW MEXICO. SO THE
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER...AS IT PUMPS UP A RIDGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TOO MUCH DEVIATION IN THE MODELS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
AND MORESO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL AT ODDS WITH
EACH OTHER REGARDING THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

FAIR TO GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FURTHER ON FRIDAY. AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING RECORD HIGHS FOR
THE DATE. AS A RESULT...HUMIDITIES WILL DROP AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT
FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO LIKELY NEAR CLAYTON. THOUGH BREEZES WILL
INCREASE OVER TODAY...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS...AND 700 MB WINDS INCREASE...WINDS
WILL RAMP UP OVER FRIDAYS READINGS. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
PERSIST...WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES POSSIBLE
NEAR CLAYTON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND WITHIN 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF I-40 FROM CLINES CORNERS
EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. HAINES INDICES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5 ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...BUT ELSEWHERE 4 HAINES ARE EXPECTED. THUS
HAINES VALUES MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.

700 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODELS DISAGREE WITH
REGARDS TO HOW MUCH THEY WILL BE...ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 70 KTS.
EITHER WAY...AND IF ESPECIALLY THE LATTER...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
BUFFET THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND SOME MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MIN TEMPS STAY WARM THANKS TO THE WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LATE SUNDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BY SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SPILL THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS A RESULT...MONDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DROP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES
FROM SUNDAYS READINGS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.

THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AT THIS POINT AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH REDEVELOPS QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND DOWNSLOPE WARNING SHOULD
LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES ONCE AGAIN.
SOME CONCERN EXISTS...HOWEVER...THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO
WARM THE EAST.

MODELS REMAIN UNSURE HOW THE PATTERN WILL PROGRESS FROM HERE. BOTH
HAVE A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC...BUT THE GFS DAMPENS IT AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD...BRINGING ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO WESTERN
NM AND PERHAPS SOME WIND AREAWIDE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF LOOKS TO TAKE
THE SAME STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF NM AS IT ROUNDS A RIDGE.
THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY...VENTILATION IS THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN. MAINLY POOR
VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...AND THOUGH VENTILATION
INCREASES ON SATURDAY...THE CENTRAL VALLEYS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
UNDER POOR VENTILATION. FAIR TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION WILL RETURN
AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO POOR ONCE AGAIN.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.