Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 091723
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1123 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED OVER CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE ALREADY
DESTABILIZING WITH CU DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY BRIEFLY OBSCURE TERRAIN WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS TO 40KT. CELL MOTION WILL BE
SLOW BUT GENERALLY EAST OVER NRN NM AND TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH
BY 10/03Z BUT SHRA MAY LINGER THEREAFTER. PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SE NM PLAINS MAY SEE ONLY CU OR ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE STRONGER TODAY SO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKER
AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO MAKE IT ONTO THE NORTH EST
PLAINS AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER
NEAR MID JULY NORMALS AND THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL HANG OUT NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY SEE A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF HEAVY STRATIFORM RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING ALONG
THE SE PERIPHERY OF AN MCV STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF MT TAYLOR.
CURRENT FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 4AM BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
SINCE THIS SAME AREA HAD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN NM THRU THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE...WHILE LEAVING
WESTERN NM IN THE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY. THE GFS TUESDAY HAD
A REMARKABLE HANDLE ON A MORE STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS ALONG THE SE
EDGE OF THE MAIN THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF STILL
INDICATE THIS TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CORE WILL WOBBLE
TO THE EAST THRU THIS PERIOD AND ALLOW STEERING FLOW TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE SW TO NE TODAY. THUS HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE
BUT MAY NOT SEE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OF TUESDAY.

ON FRIDAY THE H5 HIGH WILL WEAKEN TO NEAR 590DM AND MODELS INDICATE
A WEAK VORT PUSHING WNW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS MAY
PROVIDE A SLIGHT UPTICK FOR AREAS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FROM
ABOUT I-40 SOUTHWARD. THE H5 RIDGE CORE THEN BUILDS BACK TO NEAR
594DM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A RATHER STRONG DRY/STABLE LAYER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE PUSHING THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME INTO FAR WESTERN NM. LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH
OF I-40 FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK
TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MID JULY NORMAL FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NM.
CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT GREAT SINCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE DAILY CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT IN
THE DAYS 3 TO 5 RANGE.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE NEXT POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE MAY COME
ONCE AGAIN WITH A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EAST.
THE UPPER HIGH IS ALSO SHOWN TO RETROGRADE WELL NW INTO UTAH...SO
ALLOWING THE ATYPICAL MONSOONAL CIRCULATION TO TAKE HOLD. THERE IS
STILL NO INDICATION OUT TO AT LEAST 10 DAYS OF A MORE TRADITIONAL
SOUTH TO NORTH MOISTURE TRANSPORT PATTERN OVER THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO PUMP INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE
AREAS. PWATS CLIMBED BETWEEN 120 AND 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR OVERNIGHT. NAM AND GFS TREND PWATS GRADUALLY UPWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN THEY SHOULD PEAK AROUND 1.15 INCHES OVER
ALBUQUERQUE...WHICH WOULD APPROACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF JULY.

DRIER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 500 MB BRIEFLY SHIFTS NW OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOISTURE PLUME TO BECOME LESS
STEADY...FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NORTHWESTWARD FOR PRECIP
WITH A DOWNTICK IN ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE SHOULD
MIGRATE SOUTHEAST OF NM AGAIN AS A STOUT EASTERLY WAVE WORKS ITS WAY
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AZ FROM THE NW MEXICO COAST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN BETTER PWATS AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT READINGS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR
VENTILATION DAILY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT VENT RATES LOOK TO
IMPROVE THEREAFTER.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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