Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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243
FXUS65 KABQ 201104
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
400 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled and colder weather will be the rule for the region through
the weekend and into early next week. Valley rain and snow and
accumulating mountain snow will be widespread for the west and
central through Saturday evening before tapering off by early Sunday.
Strong winds will also impact the east and south. Another opportunity
for mountain snow and valley rain and snow west and central will
come next Monday through Wednesday along with another burst of cold
air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wind or snow highlights...which will be more prevalent or have more
impact on what forecast area, that is part of the forecast
challenge for the next few days, as well as snow accumulations.

Decided to go ahead and upgrade the existing watches to warnings
and add a few northwest/west central zones to a winter weather
advisory.  Some of the current wind advisory areas for today will
likely need to be converted to winter wx advisories or warnings for
tonight and Saturday such as the Sandia/Manzanos. East slopes of
the Sangres and eastern Lincoln county may end up continuing with
wind advisories or high wind warnings despite potential for at least
some snow accumulations, but not the amounts the west slopes would
see.

Precipitation will steadily wane from west to east with orographics
slowly fading Saturday night. The drier northwest flow will yield
colder overnight temperatures, but not too far from late January
averages. Strong downslope winds in the northeast and east central
Saturday night may help keep lows from cratering.

A short lived break Sunday will be followed by more unsettled
weather through the middle of next week. Well below average
temperatures will be featured by Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional
accumulations of snow will be possible for the higher terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong jet will remain centered over the southwest tier of the US
during the next several days. This means daily rounds of stronger
surface wind...cooler temps and periods of wetting precipitation
favoring western/central areas. An overall drier and cooler pattern
shaping up for the latter portion of next week.

Near term impacts will be largely tied to the Polar jet position and
embedded waves translating along it. Western and central areas will
be favored for wetting precipitation Friday/Saturday...especially
westerly aspects. Snow will generally be found across the mid/upper
elevations. Humidity values will be on the higher side with cooler
than normal temps western/central areas and near normal across the
eastern third due to downsloping impacts. Surface wind speeds will
increase and become quite strong both days. Mixing heights are
projected to be unusually high for this time of year and much higher
overall compared to yesterday. Thus the expansion of stronger
surface wind and higher transport winds. Needless to
say...ventilation rates will be pretty good.

Still looking at a brief break in the weather action on Sunday as
another transitory ridge impacts the area. A stronger mid level dry
intrusion will be embedded within the ridge like what was seen
yesterday. Some teen RH values will be possible across the SE
plains...otherwise unusually high RH will remain. Mixing is
projected to lower substantially thus the stronger wind flow will be
relegated to the highest terrain and areas to the lee of the central
mountains.

Models have been very consistent with breaking down the ridge later
Sunday and allowing additional Pacific moisture to flow in from the
west. GFS/ECMWF have lowered their water values associated with the
third Pacific wave translation and temps are not quite as cold.
Either way...expect some additional wetting precipitation favoring
western/central areas early next week. Temps would also remain below
normal for most of the area. Winds speeds will ramp up both days and
become quite gusty areawide. Ventilation rates would increase once
again.

A baggy trough is still expected to hang back over the greater area
during the latter half of next week. Organized precipitation looks
to be lacking but figure on some afternoon cloud cover and cooler
than normal temps. Based on the trough position...mixing heights
would be pretty decent during this period but transport wind will be
much more variable thus leading to variable vent rates.

50

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

Changes with the 06Z package focused mainly on timing of
precipitation and ceilings over the western TAF locations and
winds over the eastern sites. KFMN and KGUP will continue to see
precipitation through 12-14Z with KGUP seeing a return of showers
in the 18Z time frame. Both locations will continue to bounce
between MVFR and occasionally IFR in heavier periods of
precipitation. Current trends and guidance have reduced the
confidence of precipitation at KABQ/KAEG/KSAF, thus VCSH is
included at AEG/ABQ with snow showers at SAF dropping conditions
to MVFR in the 13-16Z time frame.

East of the Central Mountains, little changes were done in the
near term with all locations expected to remain VFR but with
strong and gusty winds developing overnight and persisting through
the 00-03Z time frame.

54/Fontenot

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  41  31  40  21 /  70  70  70  20
Dulce...........................  33  22  33  13 /  90  80  90  40
Cuba............................  35  25  32  18 /  70  80  80  40
Gallup..........................  37  29  35  14 /  60  80  70  20
El Morro........................  36  25  33  14 /  60  80  80  30
Grants..........................  38  25  35  18 /  40  60  60  30
Quemado.........................  40  27  36  17 /  60  70  80  30
Glenwood........................  45  32  41  24 /  60  90  80  20
Chama...........................  30  18  29   8 /  90  80  90  40
Los Alamos......................  34  27  35  20 /  40  50  80  30
Pecos...........................  34  22  35  21 /  40  50  70  30
Cerro/Questa....................  32  19  33  11 /  40  30  60  30
Red River.......................  27  15  29  10 /  50  40  70  40
Angel Fire......................  28  17  31  12 /  40  40  60  40
Taos............................  36  21  35  13 /  40  30  60  30
Mora............................  34  22  36  19 /  30  30  50  40
Espanola........................  40  22  40  19 /  30  40  60  20
Santa Fe........................  37  25  35  20 /  40  50  70  30
Santa Fe Airport................  41  28  40  22 /  30  50  70  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  29  42  24 /  40  50  60  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  31  45  27 /  30  50  50  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  26  46  21 /  30  50  50  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  45  27  46  22 /  30  50  50  20
Los Lunas.......................  47  28  47  23 /  20  50  50  10
Rio Rancho......................  44  31  43  26 /  30  50  60  20
Socorro.........................  52  32  48  28 /  20  50  50  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  39  26  37  21 /  50  60  70  30
Tijeras.........................  40  27  38  22 /  40  60  70  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  26  41  18 /  30  40  60  20
Clines Corners..................  40  29  38  20 /  20  30  60  20
Gran Quivira....................  44  32  40  23 /  40  60  70  20
Carrizozo.......................  47  34  43  26 /  30  60  70  20
Ruidoso.........................  43  33  41  24 /  30  70  80  30
Capulin.........................  49  19  44  18 /  20   5  30  30
Raton...........................  48  21  46  18 /  20  10  30  30
Springer........................  46  24  44  20 /  10  10  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  47  25  43  21 /  10  10  30  20
Clayton.........................  54  28  51  27 /  10   5  20  30
Roy.............................  53  26  49  25 /   5   5  20  20
Conchas.........................  54  31  50  27 /   5   5  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  56  32  51  28 /   5  10  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  60  35  54  30 /   0   5  20  10
Clovis..........................  58  33  53  30 /   0   5  30  10
Portales........................  60  34  55  31 /   0   5  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  59  34  56  31 /   0  10  30  10
Roswell.........................  62  36  60  33 /   0  10  30   5
Picacho.........................  50  32  49  31 /   5  20  40  10
Elk.............................  46  34  44  28 /  10  50  60  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ515-521>523-526>537-539-540.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Saturday
for the following zones... NMZ502-506-508-510>514-516.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Saturday
for the following zones... NMZ501-503>505.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST Saturday
for the following zones... NMZ526.

&&

$$



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