Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 291748 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHIFTS DUE TO
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. MODERATE DRAINAGE WIND EXPECTED AT SAF THURS MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF NICE AND QUIET DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED...ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW LEVELS WILL
SEE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY AND MAY BRING A TEMPORARY HALT TO THE INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT A DEEPER TROUGH AND LIKELY CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FINE THURSDAY IS ON TAP. A CHILLY START WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NOT MUCH WIND. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE...HARD FREEZE WARNINGS THROUGH MID
MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND THE FLOW AT HE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WE COULD START TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WILL SPLIT...WITH PART
OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE REMAINING ENERGY MOVING SOUTH. THIS
ENERGY WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ AND SONORA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DROP SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR ALL AREAS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE COULD GET INVOLVED IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIOD...BRINGING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...FAVORING THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED AS NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUE TO BE VENTILATION
AND LOWER HUMIDITIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE STATE
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALLOWING HUMIDITIES TO DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG NIGHTTIME INVERSIONS AND LIMITING
VENTILATION. POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF ZONE
106 AND 109...AND PORTIONS OF ZONES 105 AND 101. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SQUARE OVER NM ON THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WINDS AND BETTER MIXING BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WILL KEEP VENTILATION IN THE FAIR TO
GOOD CATEGORIES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BREEZY AT TIMES GAP WIND.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE POOR TO FAIR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL NM...WITH AREAS ALONG THE AZ...CO AND TX BORDERS
HAVING GOOD OR BETTER RECOVERIES. HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY...DRAWING UP SOME MODEST GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE WILL
FAVOR WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW WILL CROSS NM. THE
TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ITS IDEAL TO AID IN
SHOWER AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS WHY EVEN THE GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SPOTTY...BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
NONETHELESS...HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AS WILL VENTILATION. FRIDAY
NIGHT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AS
A RESULT OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
STILL...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY.

WINDS WILL TREND UPWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SUNDAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PROLONGED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO
ARIZONA...PERHAPS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM
A YET-TO-BE FORMED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY STREAM UP AHEAD OF IT. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE...BUT THIS COULD MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY TUES/WED.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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