Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 212333 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS. TCC/ROW/LVS COULD
HAVE IMPACTS BUT MAINLY WIND/SH RELATED. MTN TOP OBSCD FOR A BRIEF
TIME OVER THE SANGRES. GUST TO 35KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. STRONGER WIND FLOW EXPECTED AT MANY TERMINAL
SITES...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GUST TO 35KT
POSSIBLE AT GUP/LVS LATER IN THE DAY. SPOT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
AROUND. MOST LIKELY IMPACT WOULD BE TO LVS AT THIS TIME.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHILE A WEAK DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS TODAY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WITH
MORE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS A DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE WEST THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...STRONG WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SURFACE WINDS WILL VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDUCING AN UPSLOPE LIFT COMPONENT ACROSS
THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRAY HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE TO THE WEST WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS PUSHING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

WITH THESE INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE WEST STORMS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE DRY
LIGHTNING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.  FURTHER EAST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH AND AS WINDS ALOFT LIKEWISE STRENGTHEN WITH AN
APPROACHING AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH FROM SOCAL/W AZ.

SURFACE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES INCLUDING AN
EXTENSION OF PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD CO/NM. AS
THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN EASTERN CO WITH A SOUTH TO NORTH
LOW LEVEL JET WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS IN THE 700 MB TO 500 MB
LAYER. AS A RESULT...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MIXES DOWN TO
THE SURFACE ADVECTING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES
SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL BRING WITH IT STRONG
WINDS FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

BENNETT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...AND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING MAY PRODUCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER
THE EAST ON SATURDAY...AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES
IN PATTERN EVOLUTION EMERGING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
TUESDAY...AS WINDS OVERHEAD BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE CALIFORNIA. TROUGH WILL REACH WESTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE FRIDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SLAMS INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL SWING TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND BEGIN
EASTWARD TRIP ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES
EMERGING IN THE STORY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS DOMESTIC GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...AND KEEPING
THE ACTION STATIONARY AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY. EUROPEAN ECMWF KEEPS FLOW VERY LAMINAR
AND SHEARED...FLOPPING TROUGH INTO NEGATIVE ASPECT AND THEN
UNDERCUTTING IT WITH SHEARING FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW...A
MUCH WEAKER FEATURE...GETS PUT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES FAR
FROM NEW MEXICO. WITH GFS TENDENCY TO OVERDO CLOSED LOWS OVER THE
CENTRAL WEST THIS MONTH...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING
TILTED TOWARD THE ECMWF SHEARED AND PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FOR NOW.
SOME WINDOW OF OPTIMISM FOR GREATER SOLUTIONAL HARMONY EMERGES BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...AS BOTH SOLUTIONS LIKE A SIZABLE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH CIRCULATION KEEPING NEW MEXICO IN TURBULENT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE PROFILE...WITH SOMEWHAT IMPROVED
HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE IN THE
CARDS FOR THE EAST...WITH FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES OVER THE WEST.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FLOW OVERHEAD TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WEST COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HAINES INDICES AROUND
5 AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE LATE APRIL
NORMALS WILL SET UP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS
FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY...AND OVER THE SUMMITS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITIES RUNNING IN THE LOW TEENS PCT
WEST...RUNNING A LITTLE LESS DRY IN THE LOW 20S PCT EAST ACROSS THE
HEAT OF THE DAY. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WEST AND GENERALLY GOOD IN THE EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...PACIFIC SYSTEM COMING EAST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS
RAPIDLY. BOOST TO WIND SPEEDS...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
STATEWIDE...SHARPLY ELEVATED HAINES INDICES TO 5 AND 6...AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST BUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST WILL ALL COMBINE FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TO COVER. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...COOL PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH WILL BRING EASTERN TEMPERATURES BACK TO WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF LATE APRIL NORMALS. DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE STATE WILL WEAKEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER ZONAL
FLOW...AND GUIDANCE TRENDS TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS HAS EASED CONCERN
SOMEWHAT OVER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE EAST SLOPES
AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY GOING
FORWARD...BUT TRENDS APPEAR FAVORABLE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
HUMIDITIES REMAIN WELL DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...PACIFIC SYSTEM CROSSING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST FRIDAY WILL ROLL INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON SUNDAY. COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TAKE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FROM SINGLE
DIGITS ON FRIDAY TO UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
TEENS PCT OVER THE SOUTH...THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE NORTH AND
WEST SATURDAY WILL SMEAR ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND TAPER OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BIG
STORY WILL BE THE WINDS...WITH FRIDAY BREEZES RAMPING RAPIDLY TO
WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY...WITH WIND FOCUS SHIFTING TO
THE CENTRAL AND EAST ON SUNDAY. WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND
WINDS...GREATEST WEEKEND FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHAPING UP WITH
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST
ON SATURDAY. THINGS LOOK A TAD COOL AND A TAD STABLE FOR
SUNDAY...BUT THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION INITIATING BY 20Z OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTS WITH CLOUD DECK AOA BKN/OVC050 DEVELOPING. CLOUD COVER AOA
BKN/OVC100 CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z..WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING
BROADLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THROUGH 02Z SUNSET. IN
TAFS...VCSH PLACEHOLDER SIGNIFIES NEARBY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD...WITH VCTS FOR THE BRIEF PERIOD OF GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING AROUND 15Z TUE
MORNING. EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CIGS AND
VIZ FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101-105-106.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$








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