Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 280054 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
654 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS COMING IN WITH DRIER AIR...SO REDUCED
PRECIPITATION TO ONLY SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES FROM THE SANGRES
EASTWARD AND LIMITED THEM TO THE EVENING HOURS. ADJUSTED WINDS
AND SKYCOVER OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...547 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR WILL PREVAIL ALL AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE BACK DOOR PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE QUICKLY DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF NORTHEAST GUSTS NEAR 30KTS. THIS
WIND WILL ALSO TAPER OFF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BRIEF BURST
OF EAST WINDS IS LIKELY FOR KABQ BTWN 09-11Z...SO HAVE ADJUSTED TAF
TO INCORPORATE HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
FOR GUSTS TO 35KTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TOMORROW WILL BE VERY NICE
WITH JUST PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT MON OCT 27 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WITH A WARMING
TREND UNDERWAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. FAIR
WEATHER UNDER A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER NEW MEXICO LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK WILL SLIDE EAST...AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE PACIFIC COAST ARRIVE IN NEW MEXICO FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS CLEARING OUT NEXT MONDAY WILL SET UP A COOL START FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO IN PROCESS OF RAPID EASTWARD SHEAR...AS RIDGE BUILDS
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA IN
WESTERN CANADA. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PENETRATED INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AS THE TRAILING WHIP OF LONG FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND COILING BACK TO
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. TIGHTISH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH JET FLOW ALOFT KEEPING WINDS
BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY...AND OUT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
THROUGH TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN FEATURE
PLACEMENT SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO SHOWING UP ON WEDNESDAY. TROUGH AXIS
WILL SWEEP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO. FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ENSUING SHORTWAVE SHEARING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. RIDGE CORE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WITH
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY FRIDAY.
UPSTREAM TROUGH GAINING AMPLITUDE ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ACROSS
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT...SPREADING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS ON
SUNDAY...AND A THIRD WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. BROAD TROUGH PATTERN WILL SYNCHRONIZE WITH
CIRCULATION CENTER OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER NEW MEXICO TO OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY.
SOME ISSUES ARISING GOING FORWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT
ECMWF SHEARING TROUGH RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ABANDONING AN ORPHAN CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION ALSO ABANDONS AN ORPHAN
LOW AS TROUGH ENERGY SHEARS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S....BUT LOW IS
CENTERED ON PUNTA SAN PABLO IN CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE ECMWF ANALOG. WITH TWO VARIATIONS ON THE THEME IN
PLAY...WILL KEEP FORECAST THINKING STRADDLING THE TWO OUTCOMES
WITH SOME EXPRESSION OF AN ORPHANED LOW SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO ACROSS
MIDWEEK PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT IN RUNS TO COME.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE LOWER CHAMA VALLEY AND THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AFTER DIPPING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
EARLIER THIS MONTH. SOME SPOTTY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER DARK
GENERALLY NORTH OF A TAOS TO CLAYTON LINE...ENDING BY MORNING AS
THE BULK OF THE TROUGH ENERGY SHOOTS OFF TO THE EAST. COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD AND BULGING WESTWARD AGAINST THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL SET UP SOME LOCAL OVERNIGHT EASTERLY GUSTINESS
THROUGH THE PASSES AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF SHORTLY AFTER TUESDAY SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER START AND COLDER AIR PENETRATING EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL BRING EASTERN TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TAP FOR THE
WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS WESTWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT STALLS
OUT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS FRONTAL EVIDENCE WILL BE MOSTLY A
WIND SHIFT AND TEMPERATURE DEAL. FREEZING TEMPERATURES REPEATING AGAIN
FOR THE LOWER CHAMA VALLEY AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

FOR WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUCKLING OVER NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECT AS MOST DYNAMICS
MOVES RAPIDLY INTO TEXAS WITHOUT MUCH NEW MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO 3 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS FOR THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND CONTINUE THEIR
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENTS OVER THE EAST FOR THE DAY
BEFORE SOUTHBOUND COLD FRONT OUT OF COLORADO INVADES NEW MEXICO
AND SHIFTS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
SUNNY AND WARM DAY. COOL FRONT SLIDING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SIMPLY TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE WARM UP...WITH MOST SPOTS HAVING
A REPEATED 3 TO 8 DEGREE WARM EXCURSION OVER LATE OCTOBER NORMALS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOL PUSH WILL BACK WINDS OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST STATEWIDE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS SQUIRT SOME MOISTURE NORTH
AND WEST INTO NEW MEXICO. SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH WILL
EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. TROUGH CORE WILL
MOVE ACROSS UTAH ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES TO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...SETTING UP GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE FOR THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP
NORTHWEST TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS REMAIN 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
NOVEMBER NORMALS.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN ADVANCE OF THIS SAME FRONT
ALONG THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL WIN OUT IN THE FORM OF A
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF EAST CANYON WINDS WILL
BREAK THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS RATHER SHALLOW...UP TO
AROUND 8.5K FT MSL ACCORDING THE NAM12 AND WILL LIKELY MIX OUT
BETWEEN MID AND LATE MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS AT
MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL TAKING OVER THEREAFTER. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE WINDS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS AREAS SEEING LIGHT WEST WINDS.
VENTILATION RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR IN THE VALLEYS AND SE PLAINS
TO FAIR TO GOOD IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS
UP OVER ARIZONA. WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. POOR VENTILATION RATES
WILL RESULT MOST AREAS OTHER THAN THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HELP WITH MIXING THERE.

AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST FRIDAY...THE
RIDGE WILL TRANSLATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING
VENTILATION RATES. GFS INSISTENT ON BRINGING UP LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HEADS INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY
RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERAL AGREEMENT TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRAILING SHORT-WAVE DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NM SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO HAVE TO DO WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH
MODELS...HOWEVER...CATCHING ON TO THE IDEA THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL IMPACT THE STORM TRACK OVER
THE SW UNITED STATES.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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