Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 231805 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1105 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS AT TERMINAL FORECAST
SITES. DESPITE RECENT SNOWFALL DRY AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH AND LIMIT LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT. CANT
RULE OUT LOW CIGS WITHIN THE MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KT WILL IMPACT THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS
WILL MOVE IN TODAY CREATING FRIGID WIND CHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY
AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE BEHIND
THIS STORM SYSTEM. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
WILL ATTEMPT TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION AROUND NEW YEARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STOUT NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL 700MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C ARE NEAR -2
STD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO...SO COLD TEMPS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO EXIT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THE
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW ONE LAST MID TO UPPER LEVEL
VORT AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. SURFACE WINDS
INDICATE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND CLINES
CORNERS TO EASTERN SOCORRO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIKELY
FORCE SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING...
HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY BE LIGHT. SURFACE TEMPS OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS ARE STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW FREEZING
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM SNOW. WILL CANCEL ALL WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR UNION TO A WARNING AND
SPREAD ADVISORIES INTO SURROUNDING AREAS. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON
MESA WHERE HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE THE OTHER CONCERN AS MOST AREAS WILL HOVER IN THE TEENS TO
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL TREND WARMER AS WINDS BACK AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPS THE MOST IN THE PLAINS HOWEVER
IT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS.

CHANCES THEN INCREASE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NM
CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH COLDER ONCE
AGAIN WITH MANY AREAS BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
FEEL EVEN COLDER. YET AGAIN 700MB TEMPS WILL NEAR -10 TO -12C
FOR NORTHERN NM...AND 500MB TEMPS NEAR -26C. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
BITTERLY COLD SKIING CONDITIONS DURING THE BUSY HOLIDAY PERIOD.

GUIDANCE THEN INDICATES A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
SYSTEM EVOLVING VERY SLOWLY OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
ONE BEARS WATCHING AS PLENTY OF COLD AIR IS IN PLACE AND THE UPPER
FORCING IS NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE WEST OF NEW MEXICO FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE THE INGREDIENT TO QUESTION...BUT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BIG SNOW EVENT AROUND NEW YEARS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
5 TO 7 DAYS.

SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST AND N CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS MORN...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES COULD REFIRE NEAR AND A
LITTLE EAST FROM CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS AFTN. THE STRONG NW TO N
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND W NM HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SUBSIDE AND FOR
THE MOST PART WILL COME DOWN SOMEWHAT MORE...ESPEC ACROSS SW THIRD
OF FCST AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST CORE OF H7 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORN AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVE...WHERE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH AND GUST BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH. ELSEWHERE TODAY
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...
LOCALLY A BIT HIGHER...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH. WHILE WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR AND IN SOME CASES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
TODAY...RH WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL MINIMUMS AS WELL AS AFTN TEMPS
STAYING 5 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS TAPER
OFF TONIGHT AND ADDITIONALLY WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE.

DEW POINTS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT LEADING TO
BELOW AVERAGE LOWS EARLY WED. WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS REMAIN BELOW THE
NORM WED...MOST LOCALES WILL WARM 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS
LEVELS. MORE SPOTS THAN NOT TOP OUT AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
CHRISTMAS DAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES N NM. WITH THE STATE
BEING AGAIN ON THE SOUTH END OF THIS NEXT TROUGH MT TOP WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH WITH SOME OF THIS STRONGER
FLOW REACHING THE SFC. STRONGEST WINDS AGAIN LIKELY TO BE ALONG AND
SOME DISTANCE EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST...THEN SPREAD INTO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD...SETTING UP A RETURN TO BELOW
AVERAGE HIGHS FRIDAY. FCST MODELS CURRENTLY THOUGH SHOWING BULK OF
WHAT PRECIP MAY OCCUR FALLING ACROSS THE NW THIRD CHRISTMAS DAY...
MTN SNOW AND PERHAPS A MIX LOWER DOWN...WITH ANOTHER BATCH INDICATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE S THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE LATE THU NIGHT POSS
LINGERING AS LONG AS SAT MORN. DRIER AND SOME WARMING THEREAFTER FOR
2 OR 3 DAYS.

VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL NEARLY ALL
AREAS...BUT WILL BE POOR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WED. VENT
RATES IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN WORSEN FRI AND MORE
SO SAT...STAYING PRETTY LOW AGAIN SUN.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ527-528-531-532-534>536.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530.

&&

$$

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