Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 150525 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1025 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Dry zonal flow aloft with variable high clouds. Nly wind shift
associated with incoming cold front close to ne NM/se CO border at
05Z to continue pushing swd through the eastern plains to KROW vcnty
by 15/12Z. The front should be dry as well, so not expecting any low
clouds to develop in it`s wake. An east wind may eventually push
into the RGV below canyons, impacting KSAF and KABQ but may not occur
until 15/14Z or thereafter but not anticipating gusts stronger than
25-30kts at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017...
A cold front will move across New Mexico tonight and bring a brief
cool down for Wednesday. Breezy east winds are likely below canyons
in the Rio Grande Valley behind the cold front Wednesday morning.
Temperatures tomorrow will trend 15 to 25 degrees cooler than today
across eastern New Mexico. Southwest winds will increase Thursday
ahead of a storm system approaching from the Pacific northwest.
Strong winds are expected over the high terrain and eastern New
Mexico Thursday and Friday. Wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph are
possible. Temperatures will warm above normal once again over the
entire area with these winds. The next cold front is expected to
move south across the state Saturday. This system will increase the
potential for some light snow over the northern high terrain. The
coldest overnight low temperatures of this fall season are likely
Sunday morning.


Very little changes were made to the ongoing forecast for the next 7
days. The overall weather pattern will be active in terms of winds
and temperature variations, however no significant precipitation is
in sight for quite some time.

In the near-term, all eyes are on a cold front approaching from the
northern Rockies tonight. This front will trend current temps in the
upper 70s and low 80s over eastern NM into the upper 50s Wednesday.
A light gap wind is expected once the back door portion of the cold
front makes it into the Rio Grande Valley after sunrise.

700-500mb layer winds increase quickly Thursday ahead of a broad
upper level trough arriving on the west coast. Ridge top winds will
start howling Thursday night with high winds possibly spreading into
eastern NM through Friday. Models indicate mixing to 700mb where
50-60kt winds are likely for central and eastern NM. Downslope flow
in this pattern will trend temps above normal, especially Friday
where highs will push 80F along and east of the Pecos Valley.

The next point of focus will be precip over the northern mountains
within the base of the trough passage. Guidance shows very low QPF
values focused on the period between late Friday and early Saturday.
There will not be much moisture left with this system after it is
wrung out over the western CONUS.

The big question for this weekend will be whether or not the exiting
upper trough will deliver the first fall freeze at the ABQ Sunport.
The 12Z MOS bulletins suggest the greatest potential Sunday morning,
Nov.19, which would be the 3rd latest on record. The GEFS also has
several members showing subfreezing temps. Dewpoints in the single
digits, strong surface high pressure, light winds, and clear skies
will be in place to help keep the previous record of Nov.22 intact.



A Pacific cold front will progress into western then central areas
tonight, while a back door cold front plunges southwestward through
the eastern plains, causing high temperatures to fall most places on
Wednesday; especially across the east. Wednesday morning through mid
day the back door cold front will push through gaps in the central
mountain chain with a gusty east canyon wind from Santa Fe
southward. After fairly widespread fair to poor ventilation east of
the continental divide on Wednesday, temperatures and vent rates
will generally trend upward Thursday. Pockets of poor ventilation
may linger Thursday in the central valley and across southern parts
of the east central plains.

GFS and ECMWF finally came into agreement on an upper level trough
that will approach Thursday and Friday, with the base of the trough
crossing NM Friday night. The system will begin to strengthen the
flow aloft as it approaches on Thursday, then the jet stream will
cross the state Thursday night and Friday with 700 mb winds peaking
in the 50 to 65 kt range from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
eastward. Surface winds should become breezy to windy across west
central areas and from the central mountain chain eastward on
Thursday, then remain fairly strong along and just east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains Thursday night.  A Pacific front will
then shift winds out of the northwest on Friday as breezy to windy
conditions develop areawide. The strongest surface winds late
Thursday night and Friday will probably reach 50-60 mph along and
just east of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia and Manzano Mountains,
including the east central and northeast highlands. The upper trough
will probably produce some rain and high terrain snow showers
Thursday night through Friday night across the northern mountains
and northwest highlands.

High temperatures will fall across western and north central areas
on Friday as the Pacific cold front crosses, and ventilation will
become excellent most places thanks to the strong wind. Temperatures
will then fall areawide Saturday with widespread poor ventilation
developing across all but the far eastern plains. High temperatures
on Saturday will bottom out around normal out west and as much as 6
degrees below normal in the east. Portions of the forecast area that
have not had their first freeze are likely to do so Sunday morning.
Temperatures are forecast to rebound areawide starting Sunday
afternoon as a ridge of high pressure crosses from the west, but
ventilation is expected to remain poor in most locations.





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