Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 271747 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1147 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Four Corners` upper high center currently over NM with a very moist
and unstable airmass underneath. Sct to numerous showers and tstms
will develop once again early this afternoon. Mts occasionally
obscured in brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in the stronger storms,
which will also contain wind gusts to around 35kt. Cell motion to be
generally to the east north of Interstate 40 and to the west over
southern NM. Convection will extend into the overnight hours with sct
showers and thunderstorms most areas until around 28/12Z becoming
isold thereafter.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
The stage is set for an active Monsoon Burst weather pattern today
and tonight. This means widespread wetting rain and the potential for
flash flooding. Drier and more stable air will work into the area
from southeast to northwest during the weekend but the possibility of
heavy rain will remain across the far west and north. The pattern is
expected to turn wetter areawide Sunday night through the earlier
half of next week due to another frontal boundary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes for the near term. Models remain steadfast with
their depiction of unusually high atmospheric moisture values peaking
this evening. The afternoon ABQ sounding should be near if not exceed
record precipitable water levels. Moisture wont be the limiter in
this near tropical environment...the catalyst for parcel lift will be
the main determination for areas receiving heavy rainfall and areas
that dont. Models have been consistent with showing a distinct mid
level deformation zone over the forecast area. This convergence zone
alone should create ample lift for heavy rain development. Topography
convergence, outflow boundary collisions and upslope flow will also
aid in the lifting process. Slow moving storms within a high
precipitation efficiency environment spells significant rainfall and
a flash flooding threat. As is typical with these monsoon burst
cases...hard to pin point specific areas so it is better to go larger
with the watch box. Will go ahead and hoist a rather large flash
flood watch starting at noon and lasting through 6 am Fri 28th. Even
benign cells on radar will produce a quick half to three quarters of
an inch. WFO PUB provided intel that dual pol precipitation estimates
were underdone yesterday and overnight thus indicating the near
tropical environment we will move into across a large portion of the
area. The only real limiter to the flash flood threat is the lack of
widespread moist soils although that has changed the past 24
hours...especially across SW, NC and NE areas and expected
significant cloud cover in areas.

Models continue to show a stable and drier mid level layer moving
into SE areas during the next 24 to 48 hours and eventually impacting
more portions of the forecast area during most of the weekend. The
heaviest rain potential will shift further west and north as a
result. Will still need to watch the Friday day period as heavier
storms will try to form along the PWAT gradient. Decided to go a
little cooler than guidance levels across the north and a little
warmer across SC and SE areas.

Models have seemed to up the timing of the next back door cold front
to Sunday night. GFS and ECMWF show a similar synoptic weather
pattern that should last into the earlier half of next week. This
means an increase in heavy thunderstorm coverage. Some drying
expected later next week although that is pretty far out there for
this time of year.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist and unstable air mass in place as the upper high center is
forecast to be located over New Mexico today through Friday. A
surface boundary over northeast New Mexico early this morning will
sag south and westward during the day today, likely sparking or
enhancing convection along it`s path. During the weekend, 2 distinct
high centers may redevelop, one over the Great Basin and the second
to our east over Texas.

Cell motion today will generally be to the east along and north of
Interstate 40, while to the south, movement will be to the west.
Some erratic movement will also occur, especially later today and
tonight. On Friday, cell motion will be to the northeast across much
of northern New Mexico, while over the south, movement will tend to
be to the northwest. Through Friday, cells won`t move very quickly,
so with the near tropical nature of the air mass and the slow
movement, locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding are likely.

Vent rates today and Friday will feature mostly good rates, with the
exception of areas of fair to poor rates over portions of the north
and west. High temperatures will be mostly below average by a few
degrees.

Some drier air may still seep into eastern and central New Mexico by
Saturday, shifting the focus for convection to the north and west.
Another front/outflow boundary may push into north central and
northeast New Mexico Saturday night/Sunday, igniting more widespread
showers and thunderstorms, especially late Sunday afternoon/night,
and helping to obliterate any drier air that managed to work into
the state earlier in the weekend. Yet another front may impact the
east and central Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge axis may
stretch through the Great Basin into the Big Bend region, but there
may be multiple high centers from day to day. Daily rounds of
showers and storms will continue through the end of next week and
high temperatures will run near to below average.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ504>509-511>534-537-539.

&&

$$

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