Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 170005
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
505 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY TOP DOWN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASE CONTINUING IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE TOWARD NM. RESULT
WILL BE A CONTINUED GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NW MTS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS OF -RA AND -SN EARLY WED MORN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW NM.
GUP AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE FMN TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE
LOW CIGS AND PRECIP. AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z A FEW PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS
POSS NEAR AND WEST OF DIVIDE. MVFR CIGS POSS AT AEG...ABQ AND
SAF BETWEEN ABOUT 13 AND 19Z WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED MORN AT ROW
WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SAME AT TCC SAME TIME PERIOD...THOUGH
MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR DECK TO REMAIN EAST OF THOSE TERMINAL FCST
SITES.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 6500
FEET OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY SUB-TROPICAL JET CONTINUING TO BRING PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD
THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF TWO RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT- WAVE
TROUGHS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER NM WEDNESDAY. MODELS
FINALLY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES AND
BRING THEM EWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS AND NAM12 IN PARTICULAR BRING AN ORGANIZED HEAVY BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS NWD THROUGH NWRN NM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS LONGER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FEET OR SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
THIRD SHORT- WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FT
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NM SOMETIME
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN THE TRAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... REMAINS IN THE BEYOND FRIDAY AS
A VERY STRONG JET STREAM (~200KT) OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
IS RESULTING IN LARGE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATING DRY NWLY OR NLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA
OF A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. STILL IN FANTASY-LAND OF THE
WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL WORLD BUT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS MANY
FOLKS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL BY CAR THIS CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW GAS PRICES AND A FOUR DAY WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY POOR VENTILATION TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS. OTHERWISE...A
COMPLEX TROUGHING PATTERN HAS SET UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK...WITH A TOTAL OF THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST...CURRENTLY SSW OF SOCAL...WILL MOVE
ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
AND WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NUMBER TWO...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALI...WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES.
THE FINAL TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING BUT FAVORING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING WEEKEND TROUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A POOR VENTILATION DAY AND THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. ALSO FORECASTING A
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN
DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH SCENARIO. BEYOND THE WEEKEND TROUGH...THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW...WARMING TEMPS AND A
MIXED-BAG FOR VENT RATES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A POTENTIAL MAJOR TROUGH/UPPER LOW
IMPACTING THE REGION AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

&&

$$









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