Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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579
FXUS65 KABQ 032359
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
459 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Precipitation has decreased to such a degree that only ROW has a
chance, though rather low, for some light rain or drizzle mainly
before 07Z. Some expansion, and/or lowering, of CIGS/mist/fog is
fairly likely to occur across mainly east central to se NM,
including TCC and ROW, later tonight, primarily after 04Z. And
some development of same also poss after roughly 06Z across and
just east of the NW Plateau as well as portions of the northern
Gila region. These conditions will improve significantly between
mid morn and mid aftn Sun.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of light rain and light snow will linger through tonight
from the south central mountains eastward as an upper level low
pressure system passes south of New Mexico. There will also be a
chance of fog early Sunday morning, especially in places that have
fresh snow on the ground. After a warming trend in high
temperatures Monday and Tuesday, an upper level trough will cross
the state from the northwest with colder temperatures and a chance
for snow across western and especially northern areas late Tuesday
through Wednesday. Dry conditions are then expected through the
end of the week with rebounding temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought snow to southern and eastern areas is
passing far enough south of the state that we will cancel the
Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect for the south central
mountains with this forecast package. Additional snow accumulation
is unlikely.

In the wake of the upper low and ahead of the next upper trough
surface winds will back out of the south and southwest again on
Sunday allowing temperatures to rebound after a cold start. Highs
will reach near and above normal in wester and central valleys,
and especially across the eastern plains on Monday. Readings will
then fall 5 to 20 degrees across northern and eastern areas on
Tuesday as a back door cold front plunges into the area. Southwest
winds will also become breezy Tuesday from the central mountain
chain westward as winds aloft strengthen ahead of the approaching
upper trough. That upper trough will pass fairly quickly late
Tuesday through Wednesday with the best chance of snow
accumulation across the northern mountains near the CO border. The
system will send a stronger cold front southward with wind gusts
in the 30 to 45 mph range, especially across the northeast. Highs
Wednesday and Thursday should vary around 10 to 20 degrees below
normal areawide.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A stretch of near to below normal temperatures will persist over
most of northern and central NM over the next several days, and
while some bouts of strong winds will impact the forecast area, no
critical fire weather is forecast.

Currently, an upper low is working into Old Mexico, and will round
south of the state of NM, keeping some moisture and precipitation in
place over the southeastern zones of the forecast area. Snow
accumulations will generally be confined south of the forecast area,
but a few flurries to a wintry mix could be briefly observed tonight
in the east central plains. Otherwise, chilly overnight temperatures
are expected with excellent RH recovery into Sunday morning.

Precipitation will stay confined to the far southeastern extent of
the forecast area on Sunday with temperatures nudging upward a
couple to a few degrees. The majority of the area will observe a
continued clearing trend with inconsequentially light to moderate
breezes, however poor ventilation will plague the entire forecast
area.

By Monday the aforementioned upper low will shift into central TX
with a brisk west northwest flow left behind in NM. Breezy to windy
conditions will be prevalent over much of the forecast area at the
surface/20ft level, and highest speeds will be found over and just
east of the central mountain chain where some afternoon gusts may
reach 45 to 50 mph. Temperatures will have warmed close to seasonal
averages, except in the far northeast plains where they might exceed
by 5 to 10 degrees. Still, RH appears to remain too high for any
critical concerns with Haines indices reaching 3 to 4. The stronger
winds will assist ventilation rates in some of areas, but the more
sheltered areas will still suffer from poor dispersion Monday
afternoon.

Monday night a cold front will slide into the plains, offering some
gusty conditions for a brief while as the boundary passes through
and chills temperatures by a few to several degrees. Into the
daytime Tuesday, the strongest breezes will be found over the
western high terrain of the forecast area with wind direction
switching back to the south and west for most locations. Daytime
highs Tuesday will be below normal in the east and close to seasonal
averages in the west with wind staying below critical thresholds for
the most part. Some meager precipitation would be possible in the
north central to northwestern zones Tuesday, and ventilation
rates will improve overall Tuesday.

A disturbance aloft crosses the Rockies on Wednesday, bringing
strong winds and another cold front into the area. The winds would
be strongest in the eastern plains behind the front, and forecast
speeds were increased fairly significantly with this afternoon
package. Precipitation looks to be somewhat of an afterthought with
the colder air invasion being on the front burner. Daytime high
temperatures will run 10 to 20 degrees below average both Wednesday
and Thursday with a very chilly night expected Wednesday night.  A
similar mostly dry pattern looks to prevail thereafter with
additional bouts of cooling and stronger winds.

&&

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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