Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 131735 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1035 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Dry nw flow aloft with sfc lee trough. VFR through the next 24 hours
with light to moderate south to southwest breezes and sct-bkn high
clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST Sat Jan 13 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
After a cooler day today, temperatures will rebound on Sunday, only
to trend downward again across central and eastern areas with a
gusty back door cold front on Monday. An upper level trough may
trigger areas of light snow as it crosses northeast New Mexico Monday
and Monday night. The colder air will filter into western areas as
well on Tuesday. An upper level low pressure system will bring a
chance for rain and snow showers mainly to the area along and west of
the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia and Manzano Mountains Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. There could be a few inches of snow
accumulation in the northern mountains, then drier weather is
expected as the system exits eastward on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In the wake of yesterday`s Pacific cold front and last night`s back
door cold front, high temperatures will fall a few to 14 degrees
today from yesterday`s readings. Readings will generally climb a few
to 12 degrees above normal across the forecast area on Sunday.

The back door cold front that pushes through the east Monday and
Monday night will have enough moisture with it for low clouds and
possibly some light snow across northeast and maybe east central
areas. Only a dusting of accumulation will be possible.

A negatively tilted upper level trough crossing the Great Basin on
Tuesday night will begin to spread snow showers over northwest NM.
The trough will cross north central and northeast NM as a closed
upper level low pressure system Wednesday and Wednesday night, though
models differ on the precise track, depth and timing. This should be
a westerly upslope flow precip event, but the storm system isn`t
expected to have much moisture with it.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry this weekend then some opportunities for precipitation next
week.

Dry northwest flow this weekend as a stout ridge of high pressure
along the east coast shifts slowly east. The back door cold front
that moved south through the east yesterday afternoon and overnight
has spilled into the middle Rio Grande Valley early this morning.
Highs today will be cooler than Friday, especially on the eastern
plains where they will be 10 or more degrees lower. A few degrees of
cooling expected for central areas and little change in the west.
Ventilation rates will be poor in the west, fair to good in the
east.

The northwest flow will relax some more Sunday as the ridge inches
closer to NM. Lots of sunshine and light winds and milder high
temperatures will mean a nice Sunday afternoon. However, ventilation
will be poor nearly everywhere, perhaps squeezing out patchy fair
rates in the northeast.

A somewhat more active pattern is looking better for next week. A
short wave trough will drop southeast into the middle of the country
Monday and plunge a potent back door cold front into the east. Moist
upslope flow later Monday and Monday night could generate light snow
over the northeast, Sangre de Cristo`s and perhaps down to I-40
between Clines Corners and Santa Rosa. It will be much cooler in the
east Monday with highs well below normal. Vent rates will be poor
across the west and central areas Monday, fair to good in the east.
The back door front will spill into the Rio Grande Valley Monday
night and press up again the Continental Divide Monday morning.

The cooling trend will continue Tuesday despite a weak ridge of high
pressure moving across NM. The exception to the cooling will be in
the far northeast where winds will manage to turn to the southwest,
providing some downslope, warming winds. Poor ventilation will be
everywhere Tuesday.

The next short wave trough will cross NM Wednesday, with models
differing on the strength and timing. The GFS and CMC actually have
an initial trough crossing Wednesday, followed quickly by another
trough Wednesday night, that ends up closing off over KS early
Thursday. Light precipitation is confined to the first trough in the
Tuesday night to Wednesday night time period. The ECMWF has one main
trough and brings it farther south, developing a closed low over
northern NM later Wednesday and dropping the low southeast Wednesday
night. This generates more precipitation across northern into
eastern NM than the other models, although still pretty light
amounts. We will lean toward the GFS/CMC solution for now. Highs
will manage to recover some Wednesday and Thursday despite the
troughs. The next trough could impact at least northern NM later
Friday into next weekend. Ventilation will improve during the
Wednesday through Friday time period.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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