Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KABQ 160521 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1021 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017

Dry zonal flow aloft with variable amounts of high clouds before
16/21Z. Developing sfc lee trough with potential for low level
moisture to increase up the Pecos Valley and into portions of se/east
central NM with lcl to areas MVFR cigs possible from KROW vcnty to
KCVN and to the KTCC vcnty. The MVFR conditions should improve aft
16/15Z as southwest sfc winds strengthen across the ern plains.


.PREV DISCUSSION...304 PM MST Wed Nov 15 2017...
High clouds spreading over New Mexico today are a sign of changes
coming over the next several days. Winds will trend up on Thursday
over eastern New Mexico then become strong over the high terrain and
eastern plains through Friday. Winds may gust up to 65 mph over the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the northeast plains. Temperatures
will also trend higher Thursday and Friday. A few record highs are
even possible Friday. Snow is also possible for high peaks of the
northern mountains Friday through Saturday morning. A strong cold
front will move into the state Saturday and bring colder temperatures
through early next week. Chances for the first freeze of the season
are looking better at the Albuquerque Sunport Sunday morning.


The latest guidance is advertising some changes necessary to the
ongoing forecast over the next several days. The primary points of
concern are higher wind trends Thursday night and Friday over the
Sangre de Cristos and the northeast plains, as well as higher QPF
over the northern mountains Friday through early Saturday.

Thick high clouds streaming overhead today will continue through
late tonight before focusing across southern NM Thursday. Stronger
700-500mb layer flow will arrive Thursday and help deepen a surface
lee trough over southeastern CO. Surface winds will trend into the
breezy category through the day over eastern NM. Yet another batch
of high clouds is expected to increase from the west by late day.

Guidance has trended winds stronger Thursday night and Friday for
the Sangre de Cristo Mts and the northeastern plains, especially the
METMOS and NationalBlend. Confidence is high enough for a High Wind
Watch for parts of this area. Model cross sections show 65-80kt at
mountain top level and downward momentum with a stable layer capped
near 650mb. Downslope flow in this pattern will lead to near record
high temps Thursday over eastern NM then record temps over parts of
central and eastern NM Friday.

12Z models and WPC guidance have trended higher with precip for
Friday through early Saturday, particularly for the northwest high
terrain. High res models are showing decent QPF with the southwest
flow ahead of the trough axis early Friday. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF
show light precip continuing through Friday night along west slopes
of the northern mountains. Snow levels are quite high with the main
slug of moisture so the bulk of accumulations will likely be at or
above 9,000 ft.

A strong cold front is still on tap to deliver much colder air for
New Mexico Saturday night through Monday. Excellent radiational
cooling conditions will be in place Saturday night for the coldest
low temps of the season for many areas. Confidence is increasing that
a freeze will occur at the ABQ Sunport Sunday morning 11/19.



The backdoor front has pushed through the central mtn chain today.
Winds have already started shifting easterly across the east, and
will continue to shift south overnight bringing back increased sfc
moisture to the eastern plains. This will bring yet another round of
low clouds and fog to the southeast plains.

Ventilation rates trend up tomorrow for western and central NM, with
midlevel moisture flowing in ahead of a trough entering the Pacific
NW. Winds also pick up with a tightening pressure gradient aloft
with breezy conditions atop the Sangre`s and central highlands
generally N of I-40. Friday will be the windiest day with winds
upwards of 40-50kts atop the Sangre`s with mtn wave activity
bringing winds down to lower elevations of the northeast highlands
along I-40, expanding further east to the northeast plains to the TX
border later in the afternoon. Friday will also be the best day for
any wetting precip. across the northern mtns with an inch to a few
inches of snow possible into Fri night into Sat morning. The
southeast will see a different story with westerly winds scouring
out any remnant sfc moisture, allowing for some patchy critical fire
wx in the afternoon when winds will be the strongest. Friday will be
the last day with fair to excellent ventilation rates.

The actual trough axis won`t pass through the region until Saturday
bringing colder temperatures with it, first across the NW Sat
morning, then with an accompanying backdoor front across the east
during the day. Temps trend down 15-20F, but this still only brings
temps down to near avg across the west, and several degrees below
avg across the east Sat. Ventilation rates fall to poor with some
areas of fair remaining across the east. Sunday morning will be the
coldest of the forecast period with the ABQ Sunport finally having a
decent chance to reach freezing for the first time this season.

After this weekend, a weak dry trough passes over limiting the
warming trend Monday. After Monday, models diverge considerably with
the GFS and ECMWF handling a PacNW trough very differently. The GFS
absorbs the trough into the larger flow pattern with the ECMWF
digging it through NM, developing it into a closed low over the Big
Bend region by mid-week. The forecast trends more to the ECMWF for
the extended period with lower Td`s due to the closed low bringing
colder temperatures. However, will need to continue to monitor
forecast trends as we head closer to next week.


High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ513-515-527.


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.