Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151133 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

A few light showers made it over KROW early this morning, but other
than that the morning will be fairly tranquil across all TAF sites.
Mid level dry air remains over central NM and will act to inhibit and
delay storm coverage over the central mtns until the later afternoon,
while keeping the eastern plains mostly clear of storms except
perhaps at KLVS. Storm motion will be variable across the forecast
area, NW to SE over the northern mtns, N to S over the west, and SE
to NW over south-central NM. Brief gusty outflow winds will be
likely from any passing storm cell.


.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017...
High pressure aloft west of the Four Corners will slowly expand and shift
eastward over the southern Rockies and northern New Mexico through Monday.
Expect a day-to-day increase in slow-moving storm coverage this weekend
along with locally heavy rainfall. The upper high will then likely remain
east of New Mexico much of next week maintaining an active monsoon pattern
and the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Daytime temperatures will
remain near to slightly below seasonal averages.


Broad, closed mid-level low slowly making its way eastward from south-
central Colorado early this morning. Few -SHRA/-TSRA have been developing
across the far northeast plains past few hours beneath a weak cyclonic
flow. Will include a mention here for the remainder of the early

Farther west, few -SHRA/-TSRA persisting and drifting south-southeast
over the northwest third of NM. While a well-defined 300- 400mb deformation
axis continues to bisect the area from NE to SW, between the upper
high centered to our west and an easterly wave cresting over far
southern NM, there may be an MCV-like feature here or possibly a
piece of the Colorado low that pinched off and drifted south. Either
way, recent HRRR runs show this activity weakening and largely ending
before daybreak. Will be interesting to monitor.

Otherwise, models similar with 500mb high vicinity of Las Vegas, NV
or just north of there. A somewhat enhanced northeast flow aloft
indicated over our southwest-most zones this afternoon/evening where
a few strong/better organized storms could develop over western
Socorro, Catron counties and possibly WC areas. Elsewhere, very
slow- moving storms will again favor the northern high terrain with
outflow boundary interactions coming into play for lower elevations
central/west late afternoon into the evening with a bit more vigor
than Friday. Sunday still looks more active than today in part
because models lower 500mb heights ever so slightly and trend PWAT
slightly higher.

Beginning Monday,  models generally consistent shifting an elongated
upper high eastward with the main high center becoming established
east of the Rockies as early as Tuesday if the ECMWF trends are more
correct. Even the GFS places the 500mb high near the KS/CO line by
Wednesday. However, the GFS maintains a much more pronounced
westward extension of the ridge mid-late next week, while the ECMWF
continues trend of shifting the upper high even farther east and
showing a nice monsoon burst pattern Wed/Thu with an inverted trough
or two. The GFS is significantly drier. For now will continue with
fairly standard monsoon fare forecast. KJ


Storm coverage trends upward for the next few days. Upper high
begins to slide to the east, but just how far remains a question
with long range models continuing to diverge by mid-week. Vent
rates will remain fair to poor over western NM, with fair to good
over eastern NM. Temperatures remain consistent, with overnight RH
recoveries remaining very good thanks to well entrenched monsoonal

The upper high, currently over the Grand Canyon area, will begin to
slide N into the Great Basin. A rather weak-modest mid-level low is
over central CO tonight, with an easterly wave passing south of NM.
These features all place NM at the crossroads of a deformation zone
oriented NE-SW over the Land of Enchantment. This will make storm
motion Saturday afternoon rather weird, with motion generally to the
N over the northern mtns, to the S/SE over the NW plateau, S/SW over
the Gila and Mogollon, and very slow to stationary over the central
mtns and Rio Grande Valley. Mid-level dry air that acted to inhibit
storms over central NM Friday will once again play a role in
limiting storm coverage there Saturday but perhaps not as much, with
isold storms forecast over the ctrl mtns.

Storm coverage ticks up Sunday and into early next week as dry mid-
level air mixes and gets squeezed out of the region. Storm motion
will remain fairly slow during this time, limiting the spread of
wetting footprints a bit. The GFS continues to stubbornly trend to
its ECM counterpart with the placement of the upper high by mid-late
next week, however it still remains well west of the ECM`s placement
over the MS River valley. The ECM solution will favor deeper
monsoonal moisture over NM for the latter half of next week, whereas
the GFS would favor it more over western NM and AZ. Given the
consistencies, and the trending of the GFS, the forecast favors the
ECM solution.





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