Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 301806 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1106 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
Other than some gusts up to around 25 KTS at KLVS and KTCC
between about 19Z to 24Z, winds will be on the lighter side and
VFR conditions will persist areawide.
.PREV DISCUSSION...313 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016...
Cold conditions will continue today with high temperatures 5 to
20 degrees below average for late November. Temperatures will warm
slightly Thursday as the flow aloft becomes westerly. The next
storm to impact the area remains on track for Friday and possibly
into Saturday. Weather models remain at odds as to which areas of
the state will be favored for snow. The one aspect the models continue
to agree on is colder temperatures for Friday and Saturday as a
backdoor cold front moves in.
Broad upper level trough and associated closed low over southeast
MN continues to move slowly east this morning. Flow aloft will
gradually transition from northwesterly to westerly by evening.
Well below average temperatures will be the rule with many
locations 5 to as much as 20 degrees below seasonal averages for
the date. Westerly flow aloft Thursday will allow some warming,
especially east, but all areas forecast to remain at least
several degrees below average.
ECMWF continues to remain the more consistent model with regard to
the high amplitude upper level trough for Friday and Saturday.
Main difference between the models is that southern portion of the
trough in the ECMWF solution is deeper and farther south, backing
the flow aloft over NM more. The more southerly flow aloft
results in isentropic upglide ("overrunning") over the ely low
level flow behind a backdoor cold front. ECMWF favors the eastern
half of the state Friday afternoon and Friday night but a lot will
depend on the wwd progress of the backdoor front as to where the
upglide will be strongest. All models agree that temperatures will
trend back down Friday and Saturday, particularly across the east
A warming trend remains on track for Sunday and Monday with zonal
flow aloft ahead of the next upper trough slated for Tuesday and
Wednesday. GFS has come around to the more progressive ECMWF
solution, bringing the deep trough axis through Wednesday. Both
models are quite cold Wednesday with blended temperature guidance
in the lower elevations (5000-6000 ft) west of the central
mountain chain remaining in the upper 20s to near 30 for high
Well below normal daytime temperatures will persist through the end
of the work week and into the weekend thanks in part to a backdoor
cold front forecast to push through Friday. Vent rates will trend
down a bit each day and generally be poor to fair over the weekend.
Chances for wetting precipitation will ramp up with the backdoor
cold front Friday then continue into Saturday as a relatively deep
and progressive upper low drops south across Arizona into northern
Mexico. The combination of these two weather features will favor
areas east of the Central Mountain Chain for wetting precipitation,
peaking Friday night into early Saturday. Dry air and ridging aloft
will overtake the area by Sunday as the upper low pulls out of
Mexico into Texas, marking the beginning of a warming/drying
Vent rates will improve considerably early next week as the jet
stream dips south from the West Coast and Great Basin over the
Desert Southwest and southern Rockies. A cold front will push
through sometime Tue/Wed, bringing an end to the warming/drying
trend with chances for wetting precipitation ramping up again.