Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 260953
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
353 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL PICK UP AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW. WEDNESDAY WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER WITH A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE STRONGER WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY AND CRANK UP THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVE WILL ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY...THE CENTER OF AN UNORGANIZED
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE 700MB COLD ADVECTION TO BTWN -2C AND +2C ACROSS NM
TODAY WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BENEATH THE UPPER WAVE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 SHOWS
BANDED STRUCTURES TO THIS ACTIVITY SO FOLKS THAT GET UNDER A BAND
MAY ACTUALLY PICK UP SOME WETTING RAINFALL. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN AND SE PLAINS...AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LOOKING
LIKELY. HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THIS AREA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH NW FLOW BECOMING ZONAL
ACROSS NM. TEMPS WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT STILL REMAIN
COOL FOR LATE APRIL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN OVERALL
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NM. MODELS AND ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEVERAL UPPER WAVES CARVING
INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL
DELIVER SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY
LATE THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME DRYLINE STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
TX LINE LATE. COLD ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MOIST INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY FRIDAY WITH MORE -SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO REALLY FIND A BREAK IN THE ACTION FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECMWF. MODELS SHOW A
STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT SURGING INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AND
SLIDING WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO WESTERN NM WHILE A STRONG UPPER
LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A WIDESPREAD DOSE OF HEALTHY QPF OVER THE AREA. WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS
7 TOTALS RANGING FROM NEAR ONE HALF INCH ALONG I-40 TO CLOSE TO 2
INCHES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. 700MB TEMPS NEAR -2 TO -4C WILL
BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAIRLY SHARP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS NM TODAY WITH
THE STRONGEST MID AND UPPER LVL WINDS...WHICH WILL MIX DOWN TO A
FAIR DEGREE...ON THE SOUTH AND EAST EDGES OF THIS TROUGH. SO WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY TODAY...STRONGEST GENERALLY
EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF FCST AREA. WILL CONVERT THE FIRE WX
WATCH AREA ACROSS MUCH OF EAST NM OVER TO A RED FLAG WARNING...
LARGELY DUE TO FACT THAT RH FALLS SEVERAL PERCENT BELOW THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 15 PERCENT...SFC WINDS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
THRESHOLDS MOST AREAS...HAINES VALUES WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE
THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING SINCE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THERE AND THE DOMINANT AMT OF FINE FUELS OUT
THAT WAY DRY OUT QUITE QUICKLY ANYWAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND THERE LIKELY HAS BEEN SOME
GREENUP...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE PROS FOR A WARNING OUTWEIGH THE CONS
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

SOME HIGH BASED INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
DRY...AND AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THE 8800 TO
9000 FOOT RANGE WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE CO LINE LATER TODAY.
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS NORTH THIRD OR SO
OF FCST AREA...BUT POORER RECOVERIES FARTHER SOUTH. WED WILL BRING
LESS WIND WITH TEMPS TRENDING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT IN FAR
NE PLAINS...THOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST SPOTS.
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL VALUES...THOUGH MID AND LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS TO SEE
CRITICAL MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN.

FLOW ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SW THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM.
TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH
COOLING TO BE MORE PRONOUNCED FRI AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP
WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...THOUGH GENERALLY NOT AS
STRONG AS ON MON. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND MAINLY SE PLAINS DO SHOW SOME CRITICAL VALUES FOR 3 TO 4
HOURS LATER IN THE AFTN AND HAINES OF 4 TO 5 OVER MUCH OF THE
CRITICAL AREA...BUT WITH DURATION NOT BEING TOO LONG AND TEMPS MAXING
OUT NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO
ISSUE A WATCH.

CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR THU NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER
COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE AND PERHAPS EVEN WETTING RAIN DURING AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THIS PERIOD.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AND LOWERING TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY...BUT WILL MAINLY ACT
TO ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION MAKES IT TO THE
SURFACE. OTHERWISE...WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER THAN MONDAY`S
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY HIGHER AT
TERMINALS SUCH AS KTCC AND KROW WHERE GUSTS NEAR 40KTS WILL BE
COMMON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  32  64  40 /  40   0   5  10
DULCE...........................  49  23  59  31 /  50  10   5  10
CUBA............................  50  28  59  34 /  40  10   5   5
GALLUP..........................  54  28  63  35 /  20   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  50  26  59  31 /  20   5   0   5
GRANTS..........................  54  28  64  34 /  20   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  53  32  63  36 /  10   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  61  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  44  22  54  30 /  50  20  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  50  33  60  39 /  30  10   5   5
PECOS...........................  51  33  61  36 /  10  10   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  25  59  33 /  40  20  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  41  23  50  28 /  30  30  10  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  21  54  27 /  20  20  10  10
TAOS............................  50  25  60  33 /  30   5   5   5
MORA............................  48  31  58  35 /  20   0   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  56  33  65  38 /  20   0   5   0
SANTA FE........................  51  34  59  39 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  33  64  38 /  20   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  40  66  45 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  40  69  45 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  38  71  45 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  40  71  45 /  10   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  62  39  71  44 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  60  39  70  45 /  20   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  66  42  75  46 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  36  62  40 /  20  10   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  55  37  64  42 /  20  10   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  33  65  35 /   5   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  34  63  36 /  10   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  37  65  41 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  39  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  56  38  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  56  30  60  34 /  10   0   5   5
RATON...........................  58  29  64  35 /  10   0   5   5
SPRINGER........................  59  31  67  37 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  33  64  35 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  67  38  67  37 /   5   0   5   5
ROY.............................  60  33  67  38 /   5   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  68  41  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  65  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  72  41  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  71  43  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  72  46  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  75  44  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  66  43  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  61  39  69  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ104-108.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ523-535-536-538-539.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ526-540.

&&

$$



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