Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 241133 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Dry southwest flow aloft continues today. Dryline and associated
mvfr/ifr cigs continues to push westward into eastern Roosevelt
county this morning. Not anticipating that MVFR cigs will make it
as far west as KTCC and KROW. Southwest winds strengthen again
today, especially after 24/18Z with gusts to btwn 30-35kt possible.
Dryline t-storms across west TX are forecast to develop farther
west than the past several days, not allowing the dryline to surge
into eastern NM tonight/Wednesday morning.



The drier and windier pattern will continue through much of the
week. Cant rule out some localized virga showers across the
northern mountains later today with some localized drier showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday across northwest and north central
areas. The height of the shower and thunderstorms...many of which
will be on the drier expected Thursday into Thursday
night as a Pacific low crosses over the area. Residual drier
showers and thunderstorms would be found across the north on
Friday. During much of the week...breezy to locally windy
conditions will be found across the area favoring southern and
eastern areas. The stronger winds will coincide with lower
humidity and provide enhanced fire danger levels...especially
favoring the east. The dryline is expected to sharpen during the
weekend and provide some strong thunderstorm potential to the
eastern plains on Sunday with residual impacts possible early the
following week.


Not a lot of changes made to the gridded forecast. Put some virga
like showers for later today across the Jemez and Sangre de
Cristos. Cumulus field was pretty enhanced yesterday and models
show that trend continuing today. Cant rule out some gustier winds
with the high based...virga activity. Models have trended a
littler drier in terms of precipitation output on Wednesday
although layer RH still suggests enhanced buildups and perhaps
some drier lightning strikes. Thus...kept the inherited forecast
intact. Thursday/Thursday night still looks to be the main day in
terms of shower and thunderstorm potential...favoring the NW half.
Decided to make the activity drier although some measurable is
expected especially favoring the higher peaks. Not a lot of QPF
will be found with this system despite the abundant mixing and
instability. Residual impacts are expected across the north on
Friday as the atmosphere destabilizes. This activity would once
again be on the drier side.

The better signature for wetting showers and thunderstorms would
be found with the dryline Sunday favoring the eastern third.
Suspect the dryline will push back to the west further than what
is projected right now but that is several days out. Residual
impacts with the surface dryline would probably be found across
the east into early next week. Models seem to be in consensus the
next several days although there is some slight differences.

Gusty winds...not so untypical for late May...will be found across
much of the area...especially southern and eastern areas through
much of the week. Not thinking wind advisory type readings.



A large upper level trough/low will remain across the PACNW and
California today and tonight. The southern portion of the trough
will swing eastward into Arizona late Wednesday and through northern
NM Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon and early evening across eastern areas and likely again
Wednesday afternoon as southwest winds combine with a very dry and
unstable airmass.

As the upper trough moves through the state Thursday...isolated
thunderstorms are forecast across the northwest third of the state.
A few of these storms will likely end up dry as precipitable water
values remain near one third inch. High temperatures on Thursday,
however, drop to 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages central
and west and 5 to degrees east. Temperatures remain below average
Friday and with a relatively moist westerly flow aloft across
northern NM, models generate a few showers or thunderstorms across
the northern mountains Friday afternoon and evening.

Flow aloft quickly backs to southwesterly Saturday, ahead of the
next upper level trough deepening along the west coast. Breezy
southwest winds return for the weekend as a result. GFS and ECWMF,
however, have more mid-level moisture and clouds accompanying this
flow. Both models hint that the flow aloft will back enough to draw
the dryline into eastern NM early next week. ECMWF also introduces
backdoor cold fronts into the mix for the first week of June.

Ventilation rates remain very good to excellent areawide during the
next seven days.



Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.



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