Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 200115 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TRENDS KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS OVER
THE WEST...WITH BULK OF RAINFALL HAVING FALLEN IN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH GO BY THE BOARD FOR THIS
EVENING FOR THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE LINE. STATEMENT
SHORTLY...UPDATED ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY FROM THE CONT DVD WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THRU ABOUT 06Z. OUTFLOWS WILL
TRAVEL EAST AND INTERACT WITH SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
EVEN NEAR KABQ AND KSAF BY 04Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NM THRU SUNRISE THEN THIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z.
THE EAST MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

SHY






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