Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 212343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Low level convergence along a backdoor cold front moving eastward
through eastern NM and a Pacific cold front approaching from the
west has produced a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across
eastern NM this afternoon. This activity is expected to end between
00Z and 01Z, as the Pacific cold front scours out much of the
available moisture. Surface high pressure will spread across all of
central and northern NM this evening, with wind gusts subsiding a few
hours after sunset. Lighter winds aloft Sunday will result in W/NW
winds developing in the afternoon, generally between 10 and 15 KTS.
VFR conditions are expected through Sunday evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017...
A bit of a temperature roller coaster is forecast through the next
seven days, as a series of cold fronts move through the Land of
Enchantment. The first cold front is moving through today and will
result in a short-lived cool down, with daytime temperatures
rebounding back above normal by Monday. The second cold front of the
next seven days will push through Monday night and result in another
short-lived cool down that will be most noticable across eastern New
Mexico. Temperatures will rebound back above normal by Wednesday,
with the third cold front arriving Thursday. This third cold front
looks to be the coldest and may result in freezing temperatures
across portions of New Mexico that have yet to see the first freeze
of the fall season. In addition, chances for lowland rain and
mountain snow will increase late Thursday and favor the northeast
quarter of the state behind the front.


Cold air advection is underway behind a Pacific cold front, which has
almost cleared our southeast counties. Convergence along the backdoor
segment of the cold front is combining with some minimal surface
based instability and sufficient moisture to produce showers across
the East Central Plains. Convection across the Southeast Plains ahead
of the front door segment of the front is due to residual moisture,
increasing instability from daytime heating and cold air advection in
the mid levels of the atmosphere. However, this round of convection
won`t amount to much across our area with lack of directional shear
and continued drying. Skies will clear-out overnight and winds will
gradually subside, setting up an much colder night. The Freeze Watch
has been cancelled for the Middle Rio Grande Valley tonight, although
we still expect freezing temperatures in the valley between
Bernalillo, Albuquerque and Los Lunas. These areas have already
experienced the first freeze of the fall season and are past their
average first freeze dates. Most of the Albuquerque Metro will see
overnight lows between 33 and 40 degrees.

The cool-down behind the front will be short-lived, with temperatures
forecast to rebound above normal almost areawide by Monday. The next
cold front, a backdoor front, will push down Monday night and bring
cooling west to near the Continental Divide by early Tuesday. Cooling
from this front will be short-lived as well, with temperatures
rebounding back above normal areawide by Wedesday.

A stronger cold front is forecast to push through late Thursday,
powered by a diving jet stream associated with an increasingly
amplified synoptic weather pattern characterized by a west coast
ridge and central U.S. trough. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are similar
overall with the pattern 12Z Friday, but some differences in the
westward extent of an embedded shortwave trough rotating through the
base of the longer wave trough are leading to differences in the
magnitude of upslope flow and resulting precipitation across the
eastern half of our area. Our PoP forecast for Thursday through
Friday is a blend of the latest GFS and wetter ECMWF for now. Below
normal temperatures are forecast behind the front, especially across
eastern New Mexico, going into next weekend. Lower elevation
locations that have yet to see the first freeze of the fall season
will likely experience a freeze behind this stronger front Friday
night into Saturday.



Gusty northwest winds will linger into this evening in some
locations in the wake of today`s cold fronts. After a cold start
Sunday morning, temperatures will rebound Sunday afternoon through
Monday as a strong upper level ridge of high pressure builds over
the west coast and Great Basin. There will be cooling areawide on
Tuesday in the wake of a back door cold front that will cross Monday
night. There will probably be a modestly gusty east canyon wind in
the Rio Grande Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning. A mixed bag
of good-to-poor ventilation is expected Sunday through Monday,
before widespread poor ventilation Tuesday.  There will be
ventilation improvement across east central areas on Wednesday in
response to a lee trough.

GFS and ECMWF agree better (again) on a quick-moving upper level
trough that will dive southeastward over the state with much colder
air and a chance for wintry precipitation Thursday into Friday. A
back door cold front preceding the arrival of the upper trough by a
few hours should cause the central mountain chain and adjacent east
slopes to be favored for precipitation.




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