Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230936
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
336 AM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather day is on tap as moisture across New Mexico has
been rejuvenated thanks to the back door front. Storms should develop
over the high terrain and shift eastward through the overnight hours
as a disturbance tracks across New Mexico. Heavy rain will be the
main threat with these storms. Thursday will continue to be active as
the disturbance slowly exits the state. Areas along and east of the
central mountain chain will be the favored area for precipitation
Friday through the weekend, though there will still be at least
isolated storms across the west. Temperatures through the weekend
will remain near or below normal, though will warm a bit over the
weekend across northwest New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models indicate today should be much more active than previously
thought. Looks as though the NAM was correct with regards to the
strength of the east wind and how far westward it would push
overnight. Now that the other models have caught on, confidence is
high that storms will develop over the high terrain this afternoon
thanks to the added low level moisture. Aiding this convection, will
be a vort max coming up from Mexico on the western side of the upper
ridge and rounding into central NM this evening/overnight. This
should keep convection going as it shifts eastward well into the
overnight hours. Heavy rain will be the greatest threat through
tonight.

The weak shortwave trough that was supposed to come across NM on
Thursday now looks like it may just be what is left of the
disturbance that moves up and into NM today. The NAM in particular
continues to show a trough over NC/NE NM on Thursday that is related
to the vort max coming up today. This should keep much of NM active
in terms of shower and thunderstorm activity, but the east should
remain active through Thursday night. Heavy rain will again be the
main threat with these storms, but can`t rule out a strong storm or
two with hail and/or strong winds.

Despite strong return flow on Friday and Friday night, models aren`t
showing too much in the way of storms. Think this is a bit
underdone, and that the eastern plains could see at least scattered
storms with moist low level southeasterly flow and modest north or
northwest flow aloft. The GFS is hinting at this, though overnight
mainly. There should plenty of instability during the aftn/eve to
keep storms going across the plains, should they develop.

Meanwhile, the upper high will be building back northward across the
Great Basin Friday into the weekend. Semi-persistent moist easterly
flow across the NM plains through the weekend should keep storms
chances highest along and east of the central mountain chain. The
northwest should dry out a bit and perhaps warm a degree or two.

Early next week should remain moderately active, at least over the
high terrain with recycled moisture. Though low level flow may
remain east or southeasterly, it doesn`t appear that the moisture
influx will be as great as some dry air aloft mixes down to the
surface over the Oklahoma and Texas.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper high circulation building over New Mexico with a stream of
moisture being drawn into the state from decaying thunderstorm
complexes over Old Mexico. This seems to be assisting the longevity
of the ongoing thunderstorm cluster which developed over the ABQ
metro and is now over the Central Highlands as well as more isolated
activity persisting over the north central and south central. The
frontal boundary may have reached as far west as the Contdvd but the
westward push has washed out and low level flow to trend more from
the south or west late this afternoon. The central mountain chain,
southwest and west central will be favored for convection today
while the east sees fewer storms. Cell motion will be to the
southeast and south today, so by evening, the central and east will
be favored as storms drift off the mountains into the lower
elevations. Vent rates today forecast to be good over most of the
north but areas of fair to poor rates are possible south of
Interstate 40.

The upper high center may remain over southwest/south central NM
Thursday, as a weak wave traverses through the ridge. Therefore,
showers and storms will be scattered to numerous over most northern
and central NM, with isolated to scattered activity over the far
northwest. Good to excellent vent rates are forecast Thursday along
and west of the Contdvd, with a mixed bag of poor to good
rates elsewhere.

The upper high center will take longer to make it`s way to the Great
Basin, and will remain over NM on Friday. Although dew points and
thus humidities do show a bit of a drying trend over the northwest,
the south and east look to continue to see isolated to scattered
showers and storms Friday and Friday night. Vent rates will be
dependent on location, with a patchwork of good rates over most of
the higher terrain, and fair to poor rates at the lower elevations.

With the upper high over the Great Basin this weekend, the central
and east will be favored for showers and storms, which will move to
the south or southwest. The high center meanders around several
western states next week, but the focus for convection remains
between the Contdvd and the east slopes of the central mountain
chain. High temperatures for the next 7 days will be near to below
average and lows will be above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Upper ridge building over NM with center to be vcnty KTCS at 23Z.
Cold front has reached portions of the Contdvd and should begin to
weaken before 12Z with low level flow becoming sly aft 18Z.
Wdly sct tstms active along/near the RGV at 06Z to linger thru 10-12Z.
MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in precipitation/br to be widespread from the
RGV over the central mt chain to the TX border thru 16Z. Storms to
redevelop over the higher terrain aft 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  60  85  56 /  10  10  20  10
Dulce...........................  81  50  78  46 /  10  20  40  20
Cuba............................  79  55  77  52 /  20  20  50  30
Gallup..........................  86  53  83  49 /  20  20  30  10
El Morro........................  81  50  77  46 /  40  20  40  20
Grants..........................  83  52  80  48 /  40  20  50  20
Quemado.........................  81  55  78  52 /  50  30  50  30
Glenwood........................  87  60  87  60 /  40  50  40  20
Chama...........................  75  49  75  45 /  20  20  40  20
Los Alamos......................  77  58  76  56 /  40  40  50  50
Pecos...........................  78  55  76  53 /  30  50  50  60
Cerro/Questa....................  75  53  72  49 /  20  30  40  50
Red River.......................  68  46  66  42 /  20  30  60  60
Angel Fire......................  71  44  70  39 /  20  30  50  60
Taos............................  79  52  76  47 /  10  20  30  40
Mora............................  75  52  74  49 /  30  40  50  60
Espanola........................  83  61  82  58 /  10  20  30  40
Santa Fe........................  78  58  77  55 /  20  30  40  50
Santa Fe Airport................  82  57  80  55 /  20  20  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  63  83  60 /  20  30  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  65  84  62 /  20  20  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  64  85  59 /  20  20  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  64  84  60 /  20  20  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  88  62  86  59 /  20  30  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  86  64  84  60 /  20  20  30  40
Socorro.........................  87  67  85  66 /  30  40  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  55  78  54 /  30  40  50  60
Tijeras.........................  82  59  80  55 /  20  40  50  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  55  79  50 /  30  50  40  50
Clines Corners..................  77  56  76  53 /  40  60  40  60
Gran Quivira....................  81  59  79  56 /  50  60  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  82  61  80  59 /  30  60  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  74  56  73  55 /  60  60  60  40
Capulin.........................  78  55  75  52 /  20  50  60  70
Raton...........................  80  56  78  52 /  20  40  50  60
Springer........................  81  57  79  54 /  20  40  40  60
Las Vegas.......................  77  53  75  50 /  20  50  50  60
Clayton.........................  80  59  78  58 /  20  40  40  60
Roy.............................  79  59  77  56 /  20  50  40  60
Conchas.........................  84  65  84  63 /  20  40  40  60
Santa Rosa......................  84  63  83  61 /  20  50  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  86  65  84  63 /  20  40  40  60
Clovis..........................  82  64  80  62 /  20  40  30  70
Portales........................  82  65  80  63 /  20  40  30  70
Fort Sumner.....................  85  66  84  64 /  20  40  30  50
Roswell.........................  89  68  87  66 /  20  30  30  40
Picacho.........................  82  62  81  61 /  30  40  50  40
Elk.............................  77  59  77  58 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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