Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 282120 CCB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL HEAT LAST WEEK...MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK
IN A BIG WAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN COOLING AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KABQ 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.13...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL (127%). THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PER THE LATEST 15MIN LIGHTNING PLOT AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA...MINUS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IDENTIFIED IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AZ WAS
INITIALIZED WELL BY THE 12Z MODELS AND WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN
THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND WAS ONE OF THE CONSIDERATIONS IN AN
EARLIER EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IN ADDITION TO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER HAS BEEN DRENCHED RECENTLY...SO IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS. DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DOWN-TICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE RECHARGING WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AND LEAD TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST ON FRIDAY...TO
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK NORTH TO OVER THE AZ/NM LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ON
THU/FRI WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME BRIEF
DRYING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PROLIFIC MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO GO TODAY BUT IS NOW FILLING
IN NICELY AND LOOK FOR OTHER AREAS TO GET INTO THE ACTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SE AREAS HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS PRETTY
SLOW TO MOVE AND SOME STRONG RAIN RATES EXPECTED. OUTFLOW WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RECYCLE OUT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ALL OF
THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SIGNATURE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA.
STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE MORE STEADY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY. STILL LOOKING AT A
DRIER AND POTENTIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO IMPACT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
AREAS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WOULD COMBINE WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TO FOCUS SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. TIMING AND TRANSLATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
TANTAMOUNT TO WHICH AREA IS FAVORED BUT NORTHEAST HALF LOOKS FAVORED
RIGHT NOW. HUMIDITY VALUES COME DOWN SOME ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH BUT
NOT THE LEVELS OBSERVED A FEW DAYS AGO.

THE PARTIAL DRYING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND USHERS HIGHER DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MTNS
WILL DO PRETTY WELL AND BASED ON STEERING FLOW
PROJECTIONS...ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
DEPICTED SO CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY STRONG STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS BUT WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THIS
COULD BE A COLD FRONT THAT STABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB
AND TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL FAR WEST.

RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
WOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE EFFECTS OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LESS.
THUS EXPECTING A PRETTY GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A SERIES OF WEAKER ONES IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS WOULD ACT TO REPLENISH
ANY LOST MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH SO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN WITH CONTINUED WETTING STORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF LULL PERIOD AROUND MIDDAY BUT LOOK FOR RAPID EXPANSION IN
SH/TS COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AREAS THAT ARE SUNNIER
NOW WILL SEE THIS INITIAL RAPID EXPANSION BUT SH/TS WILL MOVE INTO
OTHER AREAS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENTLY SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELING...EXPECT SAF/LVS/GUP TO BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY TS. USING VCTS AT ABQ/AEG/FMN/TCC AND ROW.
WILL UPDATE ACCORDING TO DVLPMENT AND RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A LONGER DURATION RAIN IMPACT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SO CARRYING PREVAILING RAIN AFTER
THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES SOMEWHAT TOWARDS LATE EVENING. ALSO
LOOKING AT SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS AT MANY
LOCATIONS INCLUDING GUP/SAF/LVS/TCC AND ROW. CANT RULE OUT IFR
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BUT HARD TO PINT POINT RIGHT NOW. VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD SO EXPECT UPDATES ACCORDINGLY. SOME OF THE CELLS
WILL PRODUCE VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FOUND IN THE ATMOSPHERE THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  60  85  63  90 /  70  50  20  20
DULCE...........................  54  78  52  84 /  80  70  30  30
CUBA............................  55  81  55  85 /  80  70  30  40
GALLUP..........................  55  84  57  86 /  80  40  20  20
EL MORRO........................  54  81  54  84 /  70  40  30  20
GRANTS..........................  55  83  55  85 /  70  40  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  56  82  58  85 /  60  30  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  59  88  59  91 /  50  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  49  74  49  79 /  80  80  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  79  58  83 /  70  70  30  40
PECOS...........................  53  78  57  81 /  80  70  30  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  74  51  76 /  60  70  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  47  65  45  66 /  70  80  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  68  44  71 /  80  80  60  80
TAOS............................  53  75  52  79 /  50  60  40  40
MORA............................  51  76  51  76 /  80  70  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  58  82  58  86 /  50  60  30  30
SANTA FE........................  57  80  60  84 /  60  60  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  82  59  87 /  60  50  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  86  65  89 /  50  40  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  87  67  91 /  50  40  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  89  65  93 /  50  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  87  66  91 /  50  40  30  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  89  63  93 /  40  30  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  64  87  66  91 /  50  40  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  68  90  68  94 /  30  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  82  60  86 /  60  50  30  20
TIJERAS.........................  62  83  61  87 /  60  50  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  83  56  86 /  60  40  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  83  59  83 /  60  50  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  83  61  87 /  50  30  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  64  89 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  55  79  57  83 /  40  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  57  75  56  71 /  60  70  80  60
RATON...........................  57  78  56  72 /  60  60  60  60
SPRINGER........................  58  79  57  75 /  60  60  40  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  79  56  77 /  70  60  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  60  82  62  73 /  50  60  60  40
ROY.............................  59  79  60  74 /  60  60  40  60
CONCHAS.........................  66  88  66  86 /  60  50  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  64  87  65  85 /  60  40  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  90  67  86 /  60  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  64  87  64  87 /  50  40  20  30
PORTALES........................  66  89  66  90 /  50  30  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  88  67  89 /  60  40  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  71  93  68  97 /  30  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  64  86  63  92 /  30  30  30  20
ELK.............................  61  83  62  87 /  20  50  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>515-526>532.

&&

$$

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