Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 251109
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AFT 18Z AS LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE EASTWARD TODAY
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BECOME MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
MONDAY...MOSTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. ONCE THE FRONT INVADES THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT...A COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE ON
TUESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING DAY WILL BE ON HAND
TODAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE BY A
FEW DECAMETERS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO TX. CLEAR SKIES WILL
HOLD AND BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MUCH TODAY. CLOUDS IN
THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL APPROACH NM FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TREKS OVER NM.

A MORE POTENT TROUGH DRIVEN BY THE POLAR JET WILL THEN BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FLUX OF
MEAGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY LIKELY OF THE VIRGA VARIETY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WINDS...THE DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL COUPLE WITH A
STRONGER GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INDUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB AS HIGH IN SOME
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL AREAS WILL STILL EXCEED
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY 6 TO 18 DEGREES. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT DYNAMICS ALOFT LOOK RATHER
WEAK AND WOULD THINK MINIMAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE
AFTER DARK.

AS THE POLAR JET CARRIES THE TROUGH...DEEPENING INTO A LOW...OVER
THE CANADIAN BORDER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL JUST SKIRT THE NM/CO BORDER. SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE READINGS IN THE EAST AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
PASSING OVERHEAD AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW TODAY AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND MORE SO SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SOME NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY COULD
SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER SUNDAY BUT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST GOOD. A FRONT
MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THEY
FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WAVES GOODBYE TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AS SOME WESTERLY BREEZES PICK UP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL.
MODELS UNDERDID THE DRIER DEW POINTS OBSERVED FRIDAY IN THE WRN MTS
SO MADE SOME TWEAKS DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH LEAD TO SOME
BELOW 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD MOST LOCALES TONIGHT. VENT RATES GOOD OR
BETTER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND IMPROVE MARKEDLY
SUNDAY.

WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STILL SOMEWHAT OF A FORECAST
PROBLEM...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN ONE
DISTURBANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STRONGEST H7 WINDS INDICATED 12Z
SUNDAY AND AGAIN 12Z MONDAY...WITH 40KT OR MORE ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN 12Z MONDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EARLY MONDAY THAN WHAT CAN BE POPULATED FROM MODELS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. OTHERWISE MODELS STILL WANT TO INCREASE DEW POINTS FOR
SUNDAY EXCEPT THE ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL
AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FRONT TO DROP INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. VENT RATES REMAIN GENERALLY EXCELLENT MONDAY THEN ARE
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE
INCOMING SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER...SO BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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