Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 151740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

VFR conditions prevail today, with breezy W/SW winds at all TAF sites
except ROW where it will be a bit weaker and more southerly. Sfc
winds will pick up quickly as stronger winds aloft mix down, slowing
down after sunset at 01-02Z. Gusts 25-40kts are possible.



.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017...
Showers and storms associated with an upper level storm system were
exiting the region early this morning. Breezy to windy, drier and
cooler today with slight chances for rain south of Interstate 40 and
the north central high terrain.  The south and east may see isolated
showers and storms Saturday as a weak front drops into the
northeast. Moisture increases Sunday into Monday for increasing
shower and storm chances. Drier and breezy to windy mid to late next
week with high temperatures cooling to within a few degrees of
normal. Chances for rain look relatively low next Wednesday through
Friday but forecast models continue to be indecisive as they develop
a fall weather pattern.


Except for a few stragglers, showers and storms associated with an
upper level storm system were exiting New Mexico early this morning.
Drier air to filter in today but not all areas will be totally dry.
Both RAP13 and HRRR and to some extent the NAM12 suggest there will
be spotty precipitation over the far northwest mountains, south
central mountains and southeast/east central plains as well as the
southwest mountains. There are differences even between these models
how far north and west the areal coverage will be so wx/pop grid is
a compromise. Otherwise breezy to windy with a few degrees of
cooling though temperatures in the plains will remain up to 10
degrees above average.

Saturday should be relatively dry, but similar to today, there is
potential for a band of precipitation to be stretched from the south
central over the southeast and possibly into the east central.
Moisture will continue to increase Saturday night through Sunday
night, some of which would be spun off from soon to be Hurricane
Norma. Add in a back door front which could enhance precipitation
potential for the northeast plains. Models now in better agreement
that the main circulation is not advected into or across southeast
New Mexico until at least next Tuesday, if at all, thanks to a
deeper westerly flow aloft dominating the desert SW. Still, timing
differences exist among the models concerning disturbances embedded
in this westerly flow, making for a low confidence forecast that`s
potentially drier and windier. It still appears there will be a cool
down by late next week when a few northern high terrain nighttime
snow showers make an appearance. Bye Bye monsoon.



The last of the showers and thunderstorms associated with yesterdays
disturbance is quickly moving northeast and out of NM this morning.
Meanwhile, a dry slot pushing into NM from the west will
significantly limit precipitation chances this afternoon as compared
to yesterday. Could see a few showers or thunderstorms over the far
east central plains, but that would likely be it. Humidities will
trend downward across the west, and temperatures will generally cool
a few degrees areawide as well thanks to a Pacific front. Biggest
story today will be the increase in wind speeds. A surface low over
eastern Colorado combined with strong flow aloft and good mixing
heights for mid September will allow southwesterly winds to pick up
this afternoon. Gusts between 25 and 40 mph are likely nearly
areawide.  Saturday should be very similar to today, except that the
winds will not be as strong; only breezy conditions are expected
across northeast NM.

The GFS is more in line with the ECMWF this morning with regards to
when and where Tropical Storm Norma will go. It appears that some
moisture will be drawn northward into NM as early as Sunday, which
will increase humidities and precip chances. However, on Monday,
strong and dry westerly flow aloft should scour out some of the
moisture across at least the northern half of the state, which
should continue through Tuesday. The remnants of the storm system
will be moving northward over the Baja during this time frame, and
into northern Mexico by Wednesday morning. The westerly flow will
persist across NM, however, so it looks like much of the moisture
and lift from the remnants of the tropical system will get caught up
in the W to WSW flow and shift into TX before impacting much of NM
on Wed/Thu. There`s been considerable variation day-to-day via the
models, so still time for this to change, but overall, not looking
terribly wet for NM anymore. All eyes will be on the large, deep,
fall-like trough for the end of the week.

Despite some day to day variation in mixing heights, the winds will
be strong enough this weekend into early next week to keep vent
rates in the very good to excellent categories.





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