Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 201715 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1115 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center to the east of NM will continue to circulate
moisture over the western half to third of the state next 24
hours. Aft 18Z expect sct to nmrs showers and thunderstorms wrn
and nrn NM with localized and brief mt obscurations in MVFR
cigs/vsbys in the stronger storms. Wind gusts to around 40kt also
possible with convection. Storm motion to the north and ne around
10kt outside of outflow boundaries. Aft 03Z wdly sct showers and
embedded thunderstorms to linger wrn and nrn NM. Over the ern
plains/highlands isold showers and storms may be found closer to
the central mt chain.
.PREV DISCUSSION...245 AM MDT WED JUL 20 2016...
High pressure to our east will gradually build west through the
remainder of this week, and be centered over NM Friday. The high
will then move to our west for the upcoming weekend. The daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will decrease some each day,
but it will still be fairly active. A short wave trough passing to
our north Friday night will drop a back door cold front into the
east Saturday, with the moisture pressing west Sunday. This will
bring an increase in convection, especially for the east which is
missing out on the current plume of moisture. Moisture will
recycle early next week.
Moisture plume continues over the western half of NM while the
upper high centered over OK will begin to drift west. Another
active day today and into tonight with showers and thunderstorms
over western and central areas, generally favoring the mountains.
The overall south to north steering flow will keep any convection
from impacting the eastern plains.
As the high continues to drift west, the supply of moisture will
lessen a bit, bringing fewer showers and thunderstorms Thursday
and Friday, but by no means remove all the convection. High
temperatures will remain above normal, and inch back up for the
end of the week.
The high will be centered over NM at the end of the week, then
shift to our west as a short wave trough passes to our north
Saturday and plunges a back door cold front into the east to
start the weekend. This will bring a sharp increase in moisture
across the east, with east canyon winds likely spreading into the
Rio Grande Valley by Sunday. Widespread showers and storms are
expected for the weekend.
The upper high will park itself over the Great Basin all of next
week, allowing the possibility of additional fronts to impact the
state from the north. Otherwise existing moisture will be recycled
each day with an overall moderately active pattern, favoring the
Another round of overnight convection continues with some wetting
rains occurring across the southwest mountains and portions of the
lower Rio Grande Valley. Once again, this precipitation should
continue through at least sunrise, if not an hour or two later. For
today, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening. Storms will favor the western third of the
state, though spotty storms will remain possible across the central
mountain chain. Overall though, coverage across the central mtn
chain should be slightly less than yesterday. Wetting rains will
remain possible across the west, especially under some of the
stronger cores. Storm motion today should be toward the north or
northeast around 10 mph.
A slow downtrend in storm coverage is expected Thursday and Friday
as the upper high over the Great Plains expands/transitions westward
over the state, shifting the best monsoonal moisture plume westward
on Thursday, and disturbing the flow entirely on Friday as the high
will be elongated from SoCal to Oklahoma. Thus, Friday looks to be
the most inactive day of the week, though a few storms are still
expected due to recycled moisture. Chances for a mix of wet and dry
storms will increase though.
Little change in humidities are expected day to day. Minimums should
be between 15 and 25 percent with higher mins in the mountains, with
mainly good overnight recoveries. Friday night may have the lowest
recoveries this week, with most locales in the fair category
outside of the high terrain, which should be good.
The upper high will remain elongated over the southern U.S. on
Saturday, but precipitation chances will increase across eastern NM
thanks to a back door front moving into northeast NM Saturday
aftn/eve. Outflow boundary collisions will likely aid in pushing the
effective front south and westward, perhaps enough for a east canyon
wind in the Rio Grande Valley. The increase in low level moisture
behind the front combined with remnant boundaries should allow for
Sunday to be quite active as well across the eastern plains.
Meanwhile, one upper high center will begin to consolidate near the
Four Corners, keeping western NM hot, drier and unstable.
Extended models generally agree that the upper high will strengthen
and move over the Great Basin early next week. This will allow weak
disturbances in northwest flow to graze NE NM and potentially bring
boundaries/weak fronts into eastern NM sparking some thunderstorm
activity. The strength of the upper high may significantly limit how
much convection can develop across the west, and especially
northwest NM. Nonetheless, should still be able to get some isolated
to perhaps scattered coverage of high terrain storms with recycled
moisture. Wetting rains may be harder to come by, though, outside of
Areas of poor ventilation are possible on Saturday across northeast
NM, with a greater area of poor ventilation possible on Sunday and
Monday across the central valleys. Otherwise, vent rates should be
fair or better. 34