Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250544 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1144 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist outside of showers
and storms. Convection may persist into the early morning hours
across NW New Mexico and impact KFMN with brief MVFR conditions.
Storms on Tuesday afternoon will move NE around the upper high
circulation and may impact area terminals with brief MVFR conditions.
KTCC least likely of the TAF sites to be impacted Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern through next weekend. High pressure over
eastern NM will continue to drift east tonight and Tuesday, only
to return Wednesday. The high will then drift northwest ever so
slowly late this weekend through the upcoming weekend. This will
allow short wave troughs passing to our north to drop back door
cold fronts into the east and maybe into the Rio Grande Valley.
Precipitation will favor western and central areas into Wednesday
then the east will join in after that, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms later this week and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today`s batch of showers and thunderstorms are taking shape across
northern and central NM. Nothing too exciting yet, but they seem to
have a little more oomph than Sunday in terms of heavier rainfall.
Activity will continue to increase through the evening before
diminishing after midnight.

The pesky upper high is crawling east toward the TX border this
afternoon and will inch its way into the Lone Star state tonight and
Tuesday. The clockwise circulation around the high will pull some
deeper moisture into western NM and the result will be widespread
convection over the western half of our CWA into Tuesday night. Some
storms will produce heavy rain and increase the risk of flash
flooding.

The upper high will decide it does not want to remain over TX and
drift back into NM Wednesday. Existing moisture will be able to help
fuel plenty of storms though, just not quite as much coverage as
Tuesday.

Things get even more interesting Late Wednesday through the weekend
as at least two back door cold fronts head south across the east and
maybe spill into the Rio Grande Valley. This surge of low level
moisture will help eastern NM get into the thunderstorm act for the
second half of the week through the weekend. Widespread showers and
storms from Thursday through the weekend will pose the biggest threat
for heavy rain and flash flooding. An inverted trough could impact
southwest and west central NM Friday into the weekend, further
increasing the risk of flash flooding. All the while the upper high
will drift over the four corners region late in the week and into the
Great Basin over the weekend, making the northwest the least active
area.

And in the world of bizarre long range models bring a developing
closed low in the Ohio Valley southwest into TX next week. Oh, and
the GFS brings a weakening tropical disturbance into southern CA
early next week. Stay tuned! CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will stay within arm`s reach of New Mexico through the
next several days while abundant atmospheric moisture remains intact
over the state. This will keep scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms going over much of the forecast area. A couple of back
door fronts are advertised to invade the state from the northeast,
the first late Wednesday, and another one this weekend. This will
only add a focal point for additional storm development, primarily
along and east of the Sangre de Cristos and central mountains into
the high plains to the east. The surface boundary could sneak into
and even west of the Rio Grande on Thursday, shifting this focus for
storm development a bit farther west by late Thursday and into
Friday. The probability for more widespread footprints of wetting
rainfall will grow through the next several days, and slow moving
storms will have the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The
threat for new lightning ignitions will still exist, but should
generally decrease as wetting rainfall increases.

Excellent RH recovery is anticipated each night and early morning
period through the rest of the week, and low Haines indices of 2 to
3 are forecast during the afternoons. Winds will predominantly stay
light out of the south for the remainder of today and into the evening,
turning more southwesterly on Tuesday. Winds will then shift directions,
turning more northerly or easterly in some zones Wednesday and Thursday.
The high pressure will stay within arm`s reach of New Mexico through
the next several days while abundant atmospheric moisture remains
intact over the state. This will keep scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms going over much of the forecast area. A couple of
back door fronts are advertised to invade the state from the
northeast, the first late Wednesday, and another one this weekend.
This will only add a focal point for additional storm development,
primarily along and east of the Sangre de Cristos and central
mountains into the high plains to the east. The surface boundary
could sneak into and even west of the Rio Grande on Thursday,
shifting this focus for storm development a bit farther west by late
Thursday and into Friday. The probability for more widespread
footprints of wetting rainfall will grow through the next several
days, and slow moving storms will have the potential for locally
heavy rainfall. The threat for new lightning ignitions will still
exist, but should generally decrease as wetting rainfall increases.

Excellent RH recovery is anticipated each night and early morning
period through the rest of the week, and low Haines indices of 2 to
3 are forecast during the afternoons. Winds will predominantly stay
light out of the south for the remainder of today and into the evening,
turning more southwesterly on Tuesday. Winds will then shift directions,
turning more northerly or easterly in some zones Wednesday and Thursday.
Typical for this time of year, the primary wind concerns will be from
brief-lived and localized thunderstorm outflows.ical for this time
of year, the primary wind concerns will be from brief-lived and
localized thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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