Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 230550
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
MAY WELL STILL TRIGGER A FEW OR ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY
EAST FROM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STILL SOME MODEST RISK OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS...AS HIGH AS 30 OR 35 KTS WITH A STRAY TSRA ANYWHERE
FROM RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON EAST...BUT BY FAR MOST OF WHAT DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS SHOULD JUST BY HIGH BASED SHRA. VFR
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE. DRIER SW FLOW WILL MOVE
IN SAT WITH A FEW SHRA OR TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS...SLIGHT CHANCES ALSO MORE OR LESS
ANYWHERE TO EAST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MAINLY SW WINDS WILL GUST
BETWEEN 30 AND NEARLY 45 KTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF OF NM
STARTING LATE MORN TO NOONTIME AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTN...AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF BLDU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...903 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS...SKY COVER AND QPF FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
SC ZONES. COVERAGE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT FRI APR 22 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE IS SLOWLY INCREASING...LEADING TO A BUILDUP OF CLOUDS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY FAVOR CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO...BUT WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A PAIR OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD OFF OF THE PACIFIC ON
SATURDAY...ONE MOVING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND THE OTHER CROSSING
THE ROCKIES OF WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO NEW
MEXICO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL SHOVE MOISTURE TO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AND SOME WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS WORKING OVER NM WITH TWO UPSTREAM
LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NM IS NOT QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AS WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NONETHELESS IT HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING SHAPE. THE TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES
ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH LOW LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6 C
ATTESTING TO THIS IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WOULD THINK THE
ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS OPPORTUNITY TO DESTABILIZE MORE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE STORMS MIGHT HAVE PEAKED TOO SOON WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACTUALLY HAMPERING
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SOME. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STILL APPEARS TOO
LOW FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THESE
CELLS WILL STILL KEEP A GUSTY WIND THREAT ALIVE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OUR
LOCAL 5 KM WRF MODEL SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS SOME SLIGHT
RISES IN THE POP FORECAST WERE MADE THERE OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE TWO PACIFIC LOWS WILL MOVE INLAND...THE NORTHERN
ONE INTO WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN ONE ACROSS THE BAJA AND INTO
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
DUE TO A DRY SLOT ALOFT PUNCHING INTO WESTERN NM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CARRY THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALOFT...THE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL
SURGE UPWARD...AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 995 MB...LEADING TO STRONGER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME NORTHERN NM
ZONES...BUT HAVE OPTED TO GIVE THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT ONE LAST LOOK TO
FINE-TUNE THINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES IN THE WEST
AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS START TO DECLINE...BUT IN THE EAST THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIKELY BOOST READINGS A FEW MARKS.

THE NORTHERNMOST LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A FLATTER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
STRONG...KEEPING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GOING AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS. THE DRYING TREND WILL
ALSO CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS REMAINING NM
ZONES...KILLING OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LAG IN THE PACIFIC
FRONT AND DECLINING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL BE FULLY REALIZED ON
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK A FEW MORE DEGREES AREA
WIDE.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC LOWS CROSSING NEAR OR NORTH OF NM. ONE WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OF COLORADO MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIND IN ABUNDANCE TO NM AND SOME MEAGER POPS
TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY...ONLY FALLING TO ABOUT 7000 FEET TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS STIFF OVER NM INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WHEN ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW DIVES INTO SOUTHERN CA. THE EXACT
OUTCOME AND TRACK OF THIS LATTER FEATURE IS NOT KNOWN YET...BUT IT
DOES APPEAR TO HAVE MORE IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION DUE TO A CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...A FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL RAMP UP OVER THE NEXT WEEK...

SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DELIVERING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THRU THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP FIELD NEAR THE DIVIDE WILL BE
DRY IN NATURE...WITH WETTING PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER EAST TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THIS WILL POSE A CONCERN
FOR WESTERN NM AS CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ALL
THE RAIN/SNOW THAT FELL SEVERAL DAYS AGO LIMITS ANY SLEEPERS FROM
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES TODAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL TAP
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITHIN A LARGE DRY INTRUSION ENTERING THE SW
UNITED STATES. MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15PCT ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
COINCIDE OVER WESTERN NM SATURDAY...THEN OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NM ON
SUNDAY. RECOVERIES INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIR WITH MIN RH
VALUES TRENDING IN THE 8 TO 12PCT RANGE SUNDAY FOR THE EAST. THERE
IS SOME LIMITING CONCERN FOR FUELS AS GREENUP HAS RAMPED UP WITH
RECENT RAINS OUT EAST. NONETHELESS...UPGRADED THE CURRENT WATCH TO
A WARNING FOR THE WEST SATURDAY AND ISSUED A WATCH FOR THE EAST
SUNDAY.

A QUICK SUCCESSION OF LOWS WILL COME AT THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND
DELIVER EVEN DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS OVER A LARGER AREA OF NM
MONDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY HOWEVER WILL HOLD
OFF ON A WATCH. HAINES VALUES WILL TREND INTO THE 6 RANGE FOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE MOST ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO CO
ON TUESDAY AND TREND MAX TEMPS BELOW NORMAL NORMAL...HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN PLENTY STRONG AREAWIDE. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS
ACROSS THE EAST MOST LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

THE TROUGH PASSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WE SHIFT
THRU A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW COMES AT THE STATE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE WINDY AND DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM. HOWEVER MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
WITH IT SO PERHAPS INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ104-107-108.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ101-105-106.

&&

$$



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