Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 140523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1023 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017

A flat ridge aloft will remain over NM tonight through Tuesday
night. High clouds moving through the fast west flow aloft will
continue to stream across the area through Tuesday night with
periods of scattered to broken high clouds aoa 20K feet. Wedge of
moist low level air in southeast NM will cause low clouds to develop
late tonight through Tuesday morning. Cloud bases across this area,
including KROW, will fall into the IFR to MVFR category between 005
and 015, before clearing out in mid morning. Winds tonight will be
on the light side, less than 12 knots, across the region. Winds will
pick up a bit Tuesday afternoon as a weak lee surface trough in far
eastern NM will generate W/WSW wind gusts between 15 and 25 knots
across portions of western NM and the eastern plains.



.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MST Mon Nov 13 2017...
A mostly dry forecast through the next seven days. A few rain and
snow showers could fall on the San Juan Mountains Thursday night and

A weak ridge of high pressure will flatten Tuesday in response to a
short wave trough passing by to the north. A surface cold front will
back into the east Tuesday night. Another weak ridge on Wednesday
will be followed by increasing zonal flow Thursday and Friday as a
sharper short wave trough cross the Rockies Friday. Another ridge of
high pressure will develop this weekend. Temperatures will fluctuate
noticeably in the east, with a big warmup Tuesday followed by a sharp
cool down Wednesday. Another noticeable warmup Thursday into Friday
will be proceeded by another cooler blast of air Saturday. It will be
breezy Tuesday in the east, windy Thursday, with potentially high
winds Friday in the east.


High clouds dimming our sunshine today over NM, with stubborn low
clouds hanging on in our southeast zones. Both the high and low
clouds will continue through tonight into Tuesday, when the low
clouds should finally dissolve by midday Tuesday. Patchy fog will
be possible tonight in our southeast zones.

A short wave trough will pass well to our north Tuesday, increasing
our winds and temperatures across eastern NM, but providing no
chance of precipitation. A few record highs could be approached or
reached on the eastern plains.

A surface back door cold front following the short wave trough will
drop south across eastern NM Tuesday night, with a much cooler day on
Wednesday. The front may spill into the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday
morning, leading to some cooling in central areas, while little
change is expected in the west. Despite the noticeably cooler highs
in the east Wednesday, temperatures will still be a little above
normal for mid November.

Another sharp warmup for Thursday into Friday, along with a big
increase in winds. This is courtesy of a decent short wave trough
racing across the Rocky Mountains Friday. High winds could impact the
east Friday. Associated pacific and polar cold fronts will bring in
much cooler air again later Friday through Saturday. This will be
the only opportunity for a little precipitation, confined to the San
Juan Mountains, Thursday night and Friday. Highs Saturday will be
much cooler, especially in the east, but still close to normal.

Temperatures will warm up while winds will be light Sunday and
Monday. The GFS and ECMWF models are trying to produce a weak
disturbance over NM by Tuesday of next week, while the Canadian has
a slower and much stronger storm, impacting the state Tuesday night
to Thursday.



An upper level trough crossing the northern Rockies on Tuesday will
cause winds aloft to strengthen, and a lee trough will develop
allowing southwesterly downslope winds to become breezy along the
central mountain chain and eastward across the east central plains.
Temperatures will trend upward most places with near record highs
expected across much of the eastern plains. An exception will be on
the northwest plateau, where a Pacific cold front will arrive late
in the day inducing some cooling. The Pacific cold front will make
more progress into western then central areas Tuesday night, while a
back door cold front plunges southward through the eastern plains,
causing high temperatures to fall most places on Wednesday;
especially across the east.

Another upper level trough will cross the central Rockies Friday
afternoon (according to the GFS) or Friday evening (according to the
ECMWF). The system will begin to strengthen the flow aloft as it
approaches on Thursday, then the jet stream will cross the state
Thursday night and Friday with 700 mb winds peaking in the 45 to 60
kt range across central and north central areas. Surface winds will
become breezy to windy across west central areas and from the
central mountain chain eastward on Thursday, then remain fairly
strong along and just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
Thursday night.  A Pacific front will then shift winds out of the
northwest on Friday as breezy to windy conditions develop pretty
much areawide.  The strongest winds late Thursday night and Friday
will probably reach the 50-60 mph range along and just east of the
Sangre de Cristo, Sandia and Manzano Mountains, including the east
central and northeast highlands. With the trough approaching
temperatures should cool across the northwest corner on Thursday,
then across all but the southeast-most counties on Friday. The upper
trough could trigger a few rain and high terrain snow showers as it
crosses the northwest mountains near the CO border on Thursday night
and Friday.

After cooler days Friday and Saturday, temperatures are forecast to
rebound areawide on Sunday.

Ventilation-wise, pockets of poor ventilation will linger at the
lowest elevations on Tuesday, before becoming a bit more widespread
Wednesday behind Tuesday night`s back door cold front. Ventilation
improvement is then expected areawide with the stronger winds
Thursday and Friday. In the wake of Friday`s Pacific cold front,
poor ventilation is expected this weekend.





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