Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 150007
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
607 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS HAVE EITHER BURNED OFF COMPLETELY OR CEILINGS HAVE
RISEN ENOUGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SOME LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS AND
FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVER LOCALIZED HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS
SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY NEAR KAXX...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE TUESDAY...ONLY FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLIPS NORTHEAST AREAS AND
SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBUQUERQUE. AFTER A BREAK
IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...HELPING READINGS TO
PLUMMET. THE LEAST LIKELY AREAS TO FREEZE WILL BE THE NORTHEAST
HEIGHTS OF ALBUQUERQUE AND SPOTTY OTHER MID SLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE TOP OF A TEMPERATURE INVERSION.

AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING...WARMING WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CLIPS NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD JOURNEY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS DUE TO SOME EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE WEATHER MAY MOVE IN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES NM...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND SHALLOWER. WITH
THE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM THE WEST IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY SYSTEM...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE STRONG WIND/LOW HUMIDITY AND SOME HAINES 5/6
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITER IN TERMS
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TUESDAY LIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND RECENT SNOWFALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
SHOWS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIMITER RIGHT NOW...IN TERMS OF ISSUING A WATCH WOULD BE
SPATIAL COVERAGE. HAINES VALUES APPEAR TO BE 5/6 WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS.
WILL WATCH ZONE 109/105 CLOSELY FOR WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE DRIER STORMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW RAPID DRYING THROUGH SUNDOWN. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL SHOW LESS DRYING. COOLER TEMPS...DRIER
AIR/LOWER WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
RAPID COOLING. A FREEZE TO HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY IMPACT GROWING VEGETATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON TUESDAY WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
SHARPLY. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. ONCE MIXING REALLY GETS GOING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR MUCH LOWER RH VALUES. CAN SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS FAVORING WESTERN AREAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS SIGNAL IS SHOWING
UP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW AREAS. THE FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY
ALOFT. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS ALOFT BUT STRENGTHENING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD. GETTING A
GOOD COVERAGE OF STRONG WIND/LOW RH SHOWING UP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME PATCHY AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HAINES DOESNT APPEAR TO BE THE LIMITER BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TO NORMAL VALUES SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH. A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL IN THAT REGARD AND THAT AREA RECEIVED
RECENT MOISTURE. THUS...NOT AS CRITICAL IN TERMS OF RED FLAG
ISSUANCE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS HIGHER HUMIDITY SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN TERMS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL BE POOR TO POSSIBLY VERY POOR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST
AREAS. THE WIND FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MTN WAVES. SPEEDS SHOULDNT BE
AS STRONG AS OBSERVED DURING PREVIOUS EVENTS THE PAST 2 MONTHS. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS ZONES
105/109 AS WELL AS BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH LOCATION. MODELS HAVE JUMPED
AROUND A LITTLE BIT ON THIS. SEEING SOME HIGH HAINES VALUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS
DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS WELL. BACK DOOR INTRUSION WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD
DURING THE AFTERNOON SO THAT WOULD LIMIT STRONG WIND/LOW RH
POTENTIAL THERE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD PICK UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AT SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ABUT UP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS. MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PUSH.

MODELS SHOW RIDGING ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP.
HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD ALSO LOWER AS SOME SORT OF DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WEAK WAVE
PASSAGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE PASSAGE
FOR QUITE SOME TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING. WHAT THEY HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM APPEAR TO BE OF THE DRIER VARIETY. LOCALIZED DOWN BURSTS
OF WIND WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CELLS. OTHERWISE...FLOW DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG.

DONT SEE ANY LARGE SCALE VENTILATION ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

50

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524-530>540.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-525.

&&

$$








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