Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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228
FXUS65 KABQ 172323 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Upper winds transitioning from nw-w to southwesterly and
strengthening with deepening surface lee trough. Strong west winds
with gusts to around 45kt are expected to develop along the Sangre de
Cristo mts aft 06Z. Some localized low clouds/fog may develop over
portions of the southwest and west central mts as well as southeast
plains aft 09Z. Southwest winds gusting to 40kt will become more
widespread aft 15Z over northern and central NM as mid level moisture
becomes more plentiful, and a few light showers may break out mainly
south of Interstate 40.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A windy early week period is in store. Winds will ramp up late
tonight and continue to increase through Monday. Monday`s wind gusts
could reach or exceed 60 mph. In addition to the wind, snow will also
return to the area. The greatest snow accumulations are expected
across the Tusas Mountains where over 10 inches of snow are possible
over 9000 feet. Snow will begin Sunday night and continue through
Monday night. Blowing and drifting snow will be possible. Also,
blowing dust will be possible, especially Monday, across areas that
do not see precipitation. Thereafter, much colder temperatures will
be in store for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will start to increase late tonight across the northern
mountains, particularly the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. 700 mb winds
around 40 to 50 kts will continue to overspread the area through
Sunday. This combined with a strengthening lee side trough will lead
to windy conditions across much of the northeast and east central
plains. Wind advisories have been issued for this area. Thanks to
downsloping, temperatures across the plains will soar into the upper
60s and low 70s, or 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

A weak trough will slide over southwest NM Sunday night, which may
allow for a few sprinkles across the southwest mountains. However,
the main, large upper level trough will be diving southward across
the Great Basin. As the jet moves over NM, winds will increase
further. 700 mb winds on Monday will be between 50 and 60 kts across
much of the area, while the surface low across northeast NM will
deepen to near 991mb. Strong to damaging winds are expected area
wide. Additionally, strong orographic lift and moisture will impact
the northwest mountains. Snow could rack up above 9000 feet across
the Tusas between Sunday night and Monday night. Much of the snowfall
elsewhere will arrive with the Pacific front Monday night. An inch or
two, locally higher amounts, will be possible across much of western
NM and portions of central NM as well. The winds will create areas
of blowing and drifting snow as well as reduced visibilities. Across
the east, where precipitation is not expected, blowing dust may be a
concern.

Winds will remain breezy Monday night, which won`t allow temperatures
to fall too far, however, by Tuesday night, after the wind has
diminished and much cooler and drier air has spread over the area
behind the Pacific and back door cold fronts, low temps will be
quite cold. Single digits will be likely across much of northern and
western NM with teens and low 20s most other places.

Though there could be some weak short wave troughs in the middle of
the week, they now look to be dry. A more significant trough may be
possible toward the end of next week.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

Morning low clouds and fog have given way to high clouds across
central and southern areas, while sunshine dominates near the CO
border. An overall milder day today as drier air has moved in at the
surface and aloft. Tonight will be dry with good to excellent RH
recoveries.

Will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the
Northeast Plains Sunday afternoon. Plenty of wind and temperatures
will be well above normal. Min RHs will be marginal, around and just
below 15 percent. Haines only low to moderate. But fuels are still
dry having mostly missed out on the recent precipitation event.
Coordination with surrounding offices are all in agreement that a
Red Flag Warning is prudent. Meanwhile a weak upper level trough
will be moving inland to CA Sunday and crossing NM Sunday night.
Showers will develop Sunday afternoon over the West Central
Highlands and spread north and east Sunday night, with snow in the
mountains.

A storm moving into the Pacific Northwest tonight and Sunday will
dive southeast to the Great Basin Monday and swing through NM
Tuesday. This will keep precipitation going Monday night and Tuesday
with significant snow accumulations in the North Central Mountains.

Wednesday into next weekend will be mostly dry. A couple of weak
short wave troughs could bring a little snow Thursday and Friday
nights.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM MST Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ523-528>534.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 4 PM MST Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ104.

Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night
for the following zones... NMZ510.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MST Sunday for the
following zones... NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$



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