Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 252341 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH ARE ALREADY COMING DOWN SOME THIS EVENING COMPARED
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY PASSING NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN MANY PLACES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. TUESDAY...A
STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL CAUSE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO RETURN
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL FALL 10 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW TODAYS
READINGS. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER...CALMER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS IT
PASSES WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE JET STREAK MOVING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SAG SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT...KEEPING 50 TO 60 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
WILL CONTINUE OUR WIND ADVISORY THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SURFACE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH.

THE SECOND UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY. THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES EASTERN COLORADO...DECREASING
OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE DRY LINE MAY ALSO BECOME ACTIVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE SECOND UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST OF COLORADO...A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD OVER
AZ OR WESTERN NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS THIRD UPPER LOW...BUT
IT SHOULD DRAW A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE AND
PROVIDE DECENT UPPER DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE
STATE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL KEEP RIDGE TOP WINDS
STRONG ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD INTO YET ANOTHER WINDY DAY FOR
TOMORROW. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS WILL TREND ROUGHLY 10 TO 20F COOLER THAN TODAY. THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE A COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE
PLENTY WINDY AND DRY WITH 5 TO 6 HAINES VALUES. WILL GO WITH A FIRE
WX WATCH FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE OVERNIGHT.

A FEW WETTING RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE INCHES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CHILLY WITH GOOD/EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING
WARMER BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY
BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAGS.

FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND EVEN COOLER...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST. WINDS WILL TREND BACK UP WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH HAINES OF 5 OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM BUT THE COMPLICATING FACTOR AGAIN WILL
BE TEMPS OF 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL.

THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVEN COLDER AIR TAKES
HOLD OF THE STATE. CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A LENGTHY DURATION OF
WETTING PRECIP CHANCES AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS SHIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MODEL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME
REALLY IMPRESSIVE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ101-103>109.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ519>525-529-532-533-539.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ104-108.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502-505-506-508.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ501-504-507-509.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-540.

&&

$$

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