Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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153
FXUS65 KABQ 152116
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN...IF ONLY BRIEFLY...TO THE STATE SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING STORMS BACK TO NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
MONDAY...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...AND
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER
EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOBES OF ENERGY IN ITS
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE INITIATED CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS DEPICTED. THANKS TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...MANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE TONIGHT...ABOUT THE TIME WHEN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS
START TO SEE SNOW. THE FGZ 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED -4 DEGREE C TEMPS
AT 700 MB...AND THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT OVER NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT AND DROP SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY BETWEEN 7500 AND
8000 FEET OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCALES AS LOW
AS 6500 FEET SEE SOME WET SNOW WITH NO ACCUMULATION. MAIN IMPACT
FROM SNOWFALL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEAR CHAMA WITH
4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FT...AND AMOUNTS APPROACHING 8
INCHES AT MOUNTAIN TOPS. THE OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL AN
INCOMING 40 TO 50 KT MID LEVEL JET THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
SIERRA BLANCA AIRPORT. WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT WILL LET EVENING CREW GET LAST LOOK AT WIND
PROGRESSION.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT ENE SATURDAY...MOVING ITS CENTER NEAR
EASTERN CO. ONE LAST LOBE OF ENERGY WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY GOING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET. THE
COMBINATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS
SATURDAY WILL YIELD SOME BITTER MID MAY APPARENT
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THANKS TO MORE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE NM A BRIEF BREAK
SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
STILL SET TO ENTER FAR NE NM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT TIMING
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THIS WILL DELAY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVE FOR MONDAY AND LIMIT IT PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY BEFORE DRY AIR STUNTS THE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NM/CA BORDER AND KEEP DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT OVER NM.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH ON SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO HOLD BETTER IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN
THE GFS. FAVORED THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION...BUT KEPT POPS HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ECMWF SOLUTION A PLAYER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN/SNOW EVENT ONGOING AND WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY TURNS INTO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOW HAINES VALUES. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH AS
WELL. WETTING MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG COMPARED TO TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN CONSENSUS WITH PUSHING AN INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN DEVELOPING A
MOIST SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SHOWERS/STORMS FAVORING
CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY. THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRIER. IF THE MOISTURE PUSHES FURTHER TO THE WEST
THEN A MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD BE THE BIGGER
PRECIPITATION DAY.

A BRIEF DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MIDWEEK. BASED ON THE TROUGH POSITION...BROAD AND MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE OVER THE AREA. THUS VENTILATION WOULDNT BE
AN ISSUE AT ALL.

THE DRYLINE COULD EVENTUALLY BACK OR RETROGRADE WEST LATE WEEK AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THERE MOST
LIKELY WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN A DYNAMIC DRY SLOT ALOFT AND THE
MUCH HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE FOUND ALONG THE DRYLINE. EITHER
WAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA. CANT RULE OUT
SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN OR
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PACIFIC LOW.
EITHER WAY...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WOULD BE FLEETING AND WOULD MOST
LIKELY GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD INCREASE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION OR SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE AREA. STRONGER
GUSTS WILL BE FELT NEAR PASSING TS. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE MOST
PROBABLE IMPACT TIMES FOR TS BUT THEY WILL PASS BY QUICKLY AND
COULD IMPACT ABQ/AEG/SAF/GUP AND FMN PRETTY REGULARLY. BRIEF
INTRUSIONS INTO MVFR CIGS/VIS IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER SH/TS.
MTN TOP OBSCD MOST PROBABLE WITH PASSING SH. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. TRIED TO CAPTURE
THIS TREND AT FMN/GUP AND EVENTUALLY AEG/SAF/ABQ TERMINAL
FORECASTS WITH A PLACEHOLDER INDICATION. THESE FORECASTS WILL GET
UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT
WILL BE COMMONPLACE TODAY. AN AWW ISSUANCE AT ABQ IS NOT LIKELY
BECAUSE IT WILL BE HARD TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE STRONG WIND IS
SYNOPTIC OR CONVECTION RELATED. THIS TERMINAL SITE SHOULD JUST
PLAN FOR PERIODS OF STRONG WIND PEAKING MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  58  36  69 /  60  50  20   0
DULCE...........................  34  52  30  64 /  90  80  40   5
CUBA............................  35  53  31  64 /  60  70  20   5
GALLUP..........................  34  55  29  66 /  60  50  10   0
EL MORRO........................  32  50  28  61 /  70  70  10   0
GRANTS..........................  34  56  30  68 /  60  50  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  35  53  33  63 /  60  60  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  41  63  38  72 /  50  50  10   0
CHAMA...........................  30  49  27  58 /  90  80  40  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  52  37  61 /  70  60  20   5
PECOS...........................  37  51  35  61 /  60  50  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  33  54  30  64 /  50  50  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  27  45  27  56 /  60  70  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  48  25  59 /  60  60  20  10
TAOS............................  33  53  28  65 /  50  50  20   5
MORA............................  36  52  35  61 /  50  50  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  41  57  40  68 /  50  50  20   5
SANTA FE........................  38  53  39  62 /  60  50  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  58  36  68 /  50  50  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  58  43  68 /  50  50  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  61  44  71 /  50  40  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  63  39  74 /  50  40  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  44  62  42  72 /  50  40  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  63  39  71 /  40  40  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  44  61  41  71 /  50  50  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  66  43  76 /  20  30  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  55  38  65 /  40  60  10   0
TIJERAS.........................  39  58  39  68 /  40  50  10   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  58  30  68 /  30  40  10   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  37  57  35  65 /  30  30  10   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  57  38  65 /  30  50  10   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  62  42  70 /  30  30  10   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  59  39  68 /  30  20  10   0
CAPULIN.........................  38  59  32  68 /  20  10  10   0
RATON...........................  40  63  36  73 /  20  20  10   0
SPRINGER........................  41  61  37  71 /  20  20  10   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  56  36  67 /  30  30  10   0
CLAYTON.........................  48  69  45  77 /  20  10  10   0
ROY.............................  44  62  41  71 /  30  20  10   0
CONCHAS.........................  49  69  47  77 /  30  20   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  47  67  45  77 /  30  20  10   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  50  73  47  81 /  30  10   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  52  71  46  77 /  50  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  53  73  47  78 /  50  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  71  46  78 /  30  10   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  53  76  47  81 /  30  10   5   0
PICACHO.........................  49  67  44  76 /  30  10  10   0
ELK.............................  46  63  42  70 /  30  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508-515-520>533.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510.

&&

$$

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