Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201716 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1116 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs w/ gusty southwest winds thru
sunset today. A few clouds building around the high terrain will
lead to isold -shra/sprinkles near the CO border aft 21Z. Moist
low level return flow into southeastern NM may develop thin IFR
cigs east of KROW aft 10Z.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT FRI MAY 20 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
The air mass will dry out somewhat more today as a dry southwest
flow aloft establishes itself across the area and will park over
us for nearly a week. Enough vertical mixing will develop as
heating increases today to lower dewpoints several degrees most
locales as surface winds increase somewhat. High temperatures will
rise several degrees above Thursday`s. little or no measurable
rain is expected today, certainly much less than what occurred
Thursday. A slight chance of strong to severe storms remains in
the forecast across far eastern New Mexico Saturday afternoon and
evening along and east of the dryline. By Sunday, the dryline
should shift at least a little farther east and will force the low
storm chances to very near or even east of the Texas line. Dry
weather will dominate Sunday through at least midweek next week.
Sunday will be a few degrees cooler across the west and north,
even a little below normal, with little change then into mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An initially modest sw flow aloft will establish itself today,
then increase somewhat thereafter and remain locked in through at
least mid week next week. Lowered the already low aftn pops of
today across the sw mtns to below 15 percent and lessened slightly
the overall pops coverage there, but this is really a minor
change. Measurable amts should be very difficult to come by.
Aftn highs today should warm 5 to 15 degrees over Thursday`s
levels.

Dryline will slosh westward into the east plains tonight and
Saturday night and the typical Spring and very early summer
concern will be how far east will vertical mixing and the
westerly component of the low and mid lvl flow push it out
Sat and Sun afternoon. Should reach the plains, perhaps far
eastern plains, by mid to late aftn which may help trigger
isolated strong or even severe storms there. Otherwise in the
dry sw flow sfc wind speeds will be picking up today through
the weekend. Some critical fire wx conditions look to rear their
heads mainly Sat through at least Wed and more so east than west.
Aftn temps will be pretty close to steady Sunday into midweek,
then they may drop a little more significantly for a day or two
thereafter as a stronger trough or a not terribly impressive
close low enters NM, though out that far the fcst models of
course diverge somewhat on timing, strength and amount of precip
produced.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong wind and low humidity conditions will impact some portion of
northern and central NM through the next week. Due to the recent
rain and snow, soil moisture conditions are fairly moist most areas.
Specialized NASA SPoRT LIS imagery reveals that quite nicely. Latest
gridded forecast suggests a larger spatial and temporal impact
Sunday afternoon as well as Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Further
analysis suggest that high temps would be near to below normal
Sunday through most of next week. Haines Index values appear to be
in the 5 to 6 category across the eastern half and this is where the
lions share of the strong wind and low RH shows up. Mixing height
forecast also suggests higher mixing levels during this
period...especially later in the week. A mosaic of green-up exists
across the area and with the recent moisture have decided to opt out
on issuing any fire weather watch statements at this time. Will
monitor closely next weeks trends since there will be ample time for
the top soil to dry out. Overall...expect an extended breezy to
windy period coupled with more seasonal humidity...if not
below normal levels...during the next several days.

Current extended blend models appear to be underdoing wind speeds
beyond the day 3 period which includes next week. Increased gridded
wind speeds 3 to 5 mph across the board. All of the mid and long
range models have been suggesting a long duration...strong wind
scenario for the past few days. The current upper and lower level
pattern suggest stronger springtime breezes so made the value add
edits accordingly for the afternoon periods. Similarly...models have
been showing a mid level dry slot or dry intrusion for the same next
week period. Even with the recent moisture...decided to hedge
dewpoints lower than model guidance during the afternoon periods
across the higher terrain. Started to do this on Saturday but more
so for next week. The deeper mixing indicated by the mixing height
forecast suggests this value add.

It should be mentioned that the surface dryline will slosh back and
forth across the eastern plains during the next few days. Shower and
thunderstorm development will be relegated the next few days with
the retreating dryline. Main activity will be near the TX state
border. Expect some localizedwetting rain with this activity. Both
ECMWF and GFS indicate some sort of shower and thunderstorm activity
later next week based on a Pacific trough passage. Hard to really
say in terms of organized wetting precipitation. Will be monitoring
the equatorial Pacific and looking for trends in the models during
the next few days.

A long stretch of higher ventilation rates is expected the next
several days during the day period. Expect normal inversions during
the overnight hours.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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