Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 211729 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VERY WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT NEXT 24 HOURS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FAVORING AREAS OVER/NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS WILL FAVOR KLVS AND KSAF AND
HAVE INCLUDED SHORT-DURATION TEMPO...WITH VC PLACEHOLDERS FOR THE
REMAINING TAF SITES EXCEPT KROW AND KFMN. OTHERWISE...ONLY BRIEF
INCURSIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED DURING
ANY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
VAST MAJORITY OF TSRA AND SHRA ENDING BEFORE 22/0600Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH STORMS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNIMPRESSIVE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND
WILL FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS/HIGHLANDS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE SLOW...5 TO 10 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO THE ABQ AND SANTA
FE METRO AREAS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THAT SAID...CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MAY LIMIT HEATING BY
1-4 DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND INCREASE TO A VERY IMPRESSIVE 600DAM AT 500MB...WHICH
WOULD BE BETWEEN +2 AND +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GULF
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTH AND WEST UNDER THE UPPER HIGH
ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PWATS
AND AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SLIDES BACK DOWN OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO DIP BACK BELOW NORMAL. THE UPPER
HIGH IS THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR
FRONT BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA EITHER LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING A LARGE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND WESTERN U.S. RIDGE...
ALLOWING FOR THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF FRONTS DOWN THE PLAINS.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IN TYPICAL FASHION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS WILL BE DEFINED BY THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ANY WIND CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS ON A
DAILY BASIS...AND THE ONLY SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO DROP
WITHIN REACH OF CRITICAL RH WILL BE THE FOUR CORNERS AND NW PLATEAU
AREA WHERE STORMS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO BYPASS. THE NW CORNER OF
THE STATE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST HAINES READINGS DUE TO
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS.

THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER NM THE PAST
2-3 DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...CENTERING IN SOUTH CENTRAL CO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO USUALLY IMPLIES MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
SUPPRESSION OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY...A FEW VARIABLES WILL
COMPLICATE THE PATTERN. THE FIRST WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE SHIELD OF
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF OLD MEXICO
AND INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF HEATING TODAY IN WESTERN ZONES...AND
IT MAY ALSO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DESTABILIZING AND YIELDING
ITS FULL POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ANOTHER VARIABLE THAT WILL
COMPLICATE THE PATTERN WILL BE A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE...USHERING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
THIS COULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES BY RH INCREASES ALONE...AND IT MAY
ALSO SPAWN A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT PROGRESSES
WEST...EVENTUALLY HITTING THE AZ BORDER TUESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO CENTER MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE SWELLING SPATIALLY IN SIZE. SOME
SPOKES OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL ORBIT AROUND THE HIGH...BUT NO
ROBUST MOISTURE INTRUSIONS OR FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WILL A WEAK FRONT FLIRT WITH
NE NM...POTENTIALLY PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE/STORMS.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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