Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241213 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO REFORM/CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
LCL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN
PRIOR TO 15Z. CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED OVR THE WRN AND NRN
HIGH TERRAIN AFT 18Z. MTS BRIEFLY OBSCURED IN SHORT LIVED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. WND GUSTS TO 40KT AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REORIENTING ITSELF MORE DIRECTLY OVER NEW MEXICO. AFTER
COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...READINGS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO SEEP NORTHWARD TODAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SLOWLY FILLING INTO
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS BY THE EVENING. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ORBITING OVER NEW MEXICO AND SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING
THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BROADLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH MID
TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE HEIGHTS RISING AND REORIENTING SOME.
CURRENTLY A WEAKNESS IS NOTED OVER SOUTHWEST NM BETWEEN TWO
SECONDARY CENTROIDS OF THE HIGH...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
TRANSLATE WEST AND THEN NORTH...MORE OR LESS IN PHASE WITH AN
EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS OVER THE BAJA. THIS WAVE IS STILL ADVERTISED
BY FORECAST MODELS TO MOVE IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SOME SEEPAGE OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAS BEEN OCCURRING...BUT
OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO JUMP TOO
HIGH THROUGH MID WEEK...GENERALLY IN THE 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 BEING ON THE HIGHER SIDE TODAY. STORMS
SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH FAIRLY SLOW
PROPAGATION SPEEDS. THUS...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...DESPITE PWATS
NOT BEING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. THE OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE FOR TODAY
WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
SURGE UPWARD BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY`S READINGS. THIS
COULD REINTRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY TO THE PLAINS...BUT STORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING EAST OF THE INTERFACE
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY ALTER THE STEERING CURRENTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION. THE
DEEPEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD BE STEERED WELL WEST OF NM INTO
AZ/CA/NV...BUT A CROP OF SCATTERED STORMS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES OF NM. ANY TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NM WHILE
STRETCHING SOME ON A SW-NE AXIS...AND BY THIS TIME THE EASTERLY
WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA WILL HAVE PUSHED UP INTO NORTHERN AZ
AND SOUTHERN UT. THIS WILL INVOKE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH STRONGER BREEZES THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID
LEVELS. THIS WILL SPEED UP STORM MOTIONS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
STILL OVER WESTERN NM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE STATE. A PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD
FIT THE BILL ASIDE FROM SOME SUBTLE WARMING DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
BREEZES TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS.

INTO THURSDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL REPOSITION TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL
OF NM WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS OF THE NATION. THIS WOULD LEAVE A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER PARTS OF NM AND BY THURSDAY NIGHT AN
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT COULD SLIDE INTO THE STATE. SOME LACK
IN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN EXHIBITED BY THE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT AND ITS IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION INCREASES
IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF NM. POPS WERE LIMITED SOME FOR FRIDAY
WITH THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF STORMS BEING A RECYCLING OF AMBIENT
MOISTURE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE/MIGRATE TO FOUR CORNERS
REGION/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY TUESDAY. THEREFORE STORM
STEERING FLOW WILL UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES. STORM MOTION IS
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
25...WHERE MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE RESIDES. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL AND WEST WILL BE FEATURED FOR WETTING RAINS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH STORMS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

ON WEDNESDAY...A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRUSH
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. STORM MOTION WILL CHANGE ONCE
AGAIN...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...THEREFORE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN SOMEWHAT IN THE RGV...AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS/PLAINS WHERE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS COURTESY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THE NORTH AND WEST HIGH TERRAIN WILL
AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION.

THEREAFTER...THE UPPER HIGH WILL REGROUP OVER THE STATE...WITH
DECREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT SLIDING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY COULD BOOST RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE
MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH WARMER IN THE EAST TODAY...AND EXCEPT
FOR SOME SLIGHT COOLING WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND IN THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL RUN MORE OR LESS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS WEEK. LATE DAY HUMIDITIES SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES DECREASE...BUT STILL REMAIN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. DESPITE THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLING AROUND THE
REGION...FORECAST HAINES REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE UNTIL LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES FORECAST OVER
THE NORTH TODAY...BUT VENT RATES IMPROVE OVERALL TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES APPEAR OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL FRIDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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