Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 190930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS DID NOT
IMPROVE ON LATEST TAF SET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOST IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE FEATURES TUESDAY.
THE MAIN AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AS SEEN
BY SHOWERS/STORMS STILL ONGOING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER FAR NORTHERN NM. FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE TUESDAY AS THE ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA
SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE AREA FOR STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS IN THE AREA
WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ON APPROACHING STORMS FROM THE
WEST. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER IS THUS OUT WEST WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL NM BY SUNSET. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET UNTIL EVENING WHEN KROW MAY GET A FEW STORMS MERGING OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  60  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
DULCE...........................  84  52  77  48 /  40  60  20  20
CUBA............................  84  56  77  52 /  30  60  30  20
GALLUP..........................  79  55  79  52 /  40  40  20  20
EL MORRO........................  78  53  75  50 /  50  50  30  20
GRANTS..........................  82  56  78  52 /  50  50  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  79  55  77  51 /  50  50  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  84  60  83  56 /  50  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  80  47  75  43 /  40  60  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  83  57  79  54 /  20  40  30  30
PECOS...........................  82  56  79  53 /  20  30  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  51  78  47 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  71  45  69  43 /  40  30  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  77  47  73  45 /  30  40  40  30
TAOS............................  84  53  79  49 /  30  30  40  20
MORA............................  81  54  77  52 /  20  30  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  87  59  84  53 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  84  57  80  53 /  20  30  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  59  83  55 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  62  83  59 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  65  85  62 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  66  86  58 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  65  85  60 /  20  40  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  66  86  62 /  20  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  88  65  85  62 /  20  40  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  92  66  86  63 /  20  30  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  58  80  55 /  30  30  30  20
TIJERAS.........................  85  59  81  57 /  30  30  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  86  58  82  54 /  20  30  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  84  58  80  56 /  20  30  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  86  60  81  58 /  20  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  86  64  82  61 /  20  30  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  80  59  79  60 /  40  30  50  30
CAPULIN.........................  86  58  82  51 /  10  20  30  20
RATON...........................  88  57  86  53 /  10  20  30  20
SPRINGER........................  87  58  84  52 /  20  20  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  84  57  79  52 /  20  30  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  94  64  92  63 /  10  20  20  20
ROY.............................  90  62  88  60 /  10  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  92  68  90  62 /  10  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  93  67  91  64 /  10  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  68  93  67 /   5  10  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  92  65  90  64 /   5  10  20  20
PORTALES........................  93  66  91  65 /   5  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  94  67  90  65 /  10  10  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  30  20
PICACHO.........................  89  65  84  63 /  10  20  40  30
ELK.............................  83  62  78  61 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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