Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191137 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
437 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOK FOR
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WIND SPEEDS DONT APPEAR TO BE A
PROBLEM ALTHOUGH LOOKING AT SOME EVENTUAL ENHANCED RIO GRANDE
VALLEY DRAINAGE AT SAF LATER THIS MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOCALES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE AMOUNTS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE FOR MOST AREAS.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRING AT
LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER TERRAIN RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FALL TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY IN PARTS OF THE PLAINS TODAY MAY ERASE SOME OF
THE TEMPERATURE GAINS OF TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FROM THE KCAO TO KCVS
AREA. OTHERWISE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TODAY AND THERE MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. INCOMING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT/THURSDAY IS
DAMPED OUT BY MODELS FOR THE MOST PART SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT NOW APPEARS AS IF
THE BRUNT OF IT WILL TRACK FARTHER SOUTH...WITH THE GREATER IMPACT
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND POSSIBLY NOT EVEN IN OUR CWA IF MODEL
TRENDS OF DIGGING IT FARTHER SOUTH PERSIST. ONCE IT
EXITS...NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. WINDY CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY
SUNDAY AS ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE SWOOPS OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DON/T APPEAR TO BE STELLAR AND WILL FAVOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THOUGH FALL TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

FOR NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE GFS HAS A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CARVES
A COLD TROUGH OVER THE REGION. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE NASTY
RATHER THAN NICE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL LEAD TO CRITICALLY LOW RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS. RISING
HUMIDITY THEREAFTER AS THE INTRUSION ALOFT ERODES. VENTILATION WILL
BE POOR MOST AREAS TODAY BUT TREND HIGHER MOST AREAS THEREAFTER.
PRIMARILY A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A STRONG JET WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BUT SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
BLEEDING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A POCKET
OF VERY DRY AIR OR A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL PEAK OVER
THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY DROPPING RH VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ZONES 105/109. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ELSEWHERE AS WELL.
LIKE YESTERDAY SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WILL SHOW UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH LOWER
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. BESIDES THE
DRIER AIRMASS...UNUSUALLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND POOR VENTILATION
RATES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY. WIDESPREAD POOR RATES
EXPECTED AS A LARGE STABLE LAYER ALOFT INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS
STABLE LAYER SHOWED UP IN THE ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME FAIR RATINGS SHOW UP FOR A FEW HRS ACROSS ZONES
105/109 BUT PRETTY FLEETING.

AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE AIRMASS
WILL MODERATE OR CHANGE ON THURSDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK PACIFIC
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT SOUTH/EASTWARD. THUS RH VALUES WILL RISE SOME. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO RISE DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE STABLE LAYER ALOFT. THUS
VENT RATES WILL TREND UP. PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SURFACE WIND FLOW
BUT CERTAINLY NOT REAL STRONG. THIS WILL BE A DRY WAVE PASSAGE.

A MORE DISTINCT PACIFIC WAVE WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS IN AREAS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY. THUS VENT RATES LOWER IN SOME AREAS BUT RISE
IN OTHERS. POOR RATINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TIER ALTHOUGH LOOK FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE FUTURE DEPENDING
ON THE SPEED OF THE WAVE. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF PACIFIC ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
THUS...SHOWER CHANCES ARE WANING LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
PERHAPS IMPACTING WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS BUT DONT LOOK FOR THE
WETTING VARIETY.

A UNUSUALLY STRONG JET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BEAR DOWN ON THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING SURFACE WIND AND TRANSPORT WIND FLOW IS HIGHLY PROBABLE.
THE TRANSPORT WIND FORECAST LOOKS DOWNRIGHT SCARY SUNDAY DUE TO THE
UNUSUALLY HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS PERIOD. DUE TO THE NW FLOW NATURE
TO THE JET...LOOK FOR SOME DISTINCT MTN WAVES TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND PERHAPS MT TAYLOR AREA. MOST LIKELY PEAKING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN TERMS OF MTN WAVE WIND ACCELERATION. THE
AIRMASS THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES IN WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL BUT IT WILL HAVE ORIGINATED FROM THE PACIFIC AND NOT
CANADA. DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START OUT A LITTLE HIGHER
BUT EVENTUALLY TREND DOWN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER DYNAMICALLY CREATED DRY SLOT ATTACHED TO THE JET.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF FIRE GROWTH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO ABOVE 20 PCT RH READINGS...COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND FAIRLY LOW HAINES VALUES. PERHAPS A SMALL AREA OF
MODERATE 5S TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. THIS IS AN AREA TO WATCH
BASED ON THE GUSTIER WIND PATTERN...ABUNDANT FINE /GRASS/ AND
DORMANT FUEL. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS STILL NOT VERY LIKELY BUT
SOME MEASURABLE AND SHOWERING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE JETS INFLUENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
ECMWF IS GOING FOR A TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS IS
DEPICTING A STRONG RIDGE. EITHER WAY...BASED ON THE TIME OF
YEAR...EXPECT VENT RATES TO INITIALLY LOWER TUES/WED DESPITE SOME
SURFACE WARMING. AFTER THAT...TOUGH TO SAY RIGHT NOW ALTHOUGH SOME
INGREDIENTS HAVE BEEN PUT IN PLACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC FOR AN OVERALL
PATTERN SHIFT EITHER LATE NOVEMBER OR IN TIME FOR EARLY/MID
DECEMBER. EXPECT A CHANGE TO A WETTER STORM TRACK DURING THIS
PERIOD. CONSIDER THIS FOR YOUR PLANNING FUNCTIONS. DURING THIS
SHIFT...LONG RANGE MODELS WILL TEND TO VARY MORE AND SOMETIMES
CONFLICT WITH EACH OTHER LIKE WHAT IS GOING ON FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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