Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241128 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS AND VERY ISOLATED -SHRA TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...MAINLY NEAR/WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED -TSRA REDEVELOPING OVER/NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN 17Z-18Z WITH GENERAL STORM MOTION TOWARD THE E-NE
5-10KTS. STORM COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND 20Z TO 02Z BUT REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTATIONS. TSRA PROB TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
THOUGH MAY MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KTCC...KROW AND KLVS. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...353 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UNDERPERFORMING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME MAY DO A LITTLE
BETTER WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. AT LEAST A MAJORITY OF FORECAST
MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TOWARD A SLIGHT TO MODERATE INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY. TODAY WILL LIKELY STILL BE AN ANEMIC STORM PRODUCTION
DAY HOWEVER. EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK LOOKS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
WITH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY BEING UP DAYS IN TERMS OF RAIN
ACCORDING TO SOME FORECAST MODELS. BUT NO STRONG WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BURST IS SHOWING UP ON MODEL PROJECTIONS IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AN OVERALL SLIGHT WARMING IS ALSO EXPECTED
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN MORE SPOTS THAN NOT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS YET ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING PERFORMANCE FROM OUR BELOVED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM.
THIS HAPPENED DESPITE AN INCREASE IN THE SOUNDING PWAT BETWEEN
THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI VALUES...WHICH NORMALLY SHOW AT LEAST A
SLIGHT DIURNAL DECREASE. OF NOTE THOUGH WAS A FAIRLY STABLE MID
LEVEL LAYER THAT MADE STORM PRODUCTION A STRUGGLE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED PRETTY CLOSE BY TO THE EAST AND PERSISTENCE
SEEMING TO BE IN FORCE...NOT EXPECTING ANY REALLY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN STORM NUMBERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS TODAY.

UPPER RIDGE TO EAST OF THE STATE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD
THROUGH SAT...LIKELY EASING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AT LEAST A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST OF THE AREA...ESPEC SAT. THUS EXPECTING SAT TO BE
PERHAPS A BIT LESS ACTIVE WITH SUN PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE AS
HIGH/S INFLUENCE WANES A LITTLE...THOUGH BELIEVE GFS STILL
OVERDOING SUN PRECIP A BIT.

EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A FAIRLY STRONG...FOR THE
SEASON...UPPER TROUGH DRIFT FROM THE MID AND NORTHERN WEST COAST
REGION INTO THE NORTH HALF OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH MAY HELP DRAW UP
AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL OR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE S AND SW AS
IT TRIES TO NUDGE THE UPPER HIGH BACK EAST A LITTLE. SOME MODELS
INDICATE TUE AND WED TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE DAYS FOR
CONVECTION.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DIFFUSE/WEAKLY ESTABLISHED MONSOON PLUME OVER THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES GENERALLY NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS WELL AS A
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SW TO NE NEW MEXICO WHERE PW/S ARE ABOVE
AVERAGE. SFC DEW POINT TRENDS ALSO NOTEWORTHY FROM ZUNI/GALLUP AREAS
TO FARMINGTON...DULCE AND CHAMA WHERE READINGS ARE UP 5 TO AS MUCH
AS 20 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO 24-HOURS AGO.

BUT THESE FAVORABLE TRENDS LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED. RIDGE ALOFT
CENTERED OVER WEST TX TO GRADUALLY EXPAND WWD AND ELONGATE WEST-EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL SHUNT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PW
VALUES FARTHER W/SW OF THE AREA WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY.
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO LOOKS TO CIRCULATE WESTWARD NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NET RESULT
WILL BE A LOW GRADE MONSOON FORECAST IN NEAR TERM...WITH TODAY/S
THUNDERSTORM FOOTPRINTS QUITE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY IF NOT A BIT MORE
ACTIVE ACROSS THE NW HALF PARTICULARLY THE DIVIDE REGION WESTWARD
WHERE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OBSERVED THURSDAY.  STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE LESS
COVERAGE OVERALL AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES.

BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...A RATHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SWEEP FROM THE PACNW TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER HIGH BACK WELL EAST OF NEW
MEXICO AND COULD BRIEFLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
IN THE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THEN A BACKDOOR
FRONT WORKS SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH AND IN
OUR DIRECTION FOR LATER WED/THU. THEREAFTER...GROWING CONSENSUS AMONG
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REDEVELOPING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

VARIABLE VENT RATES IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT GENERALLY GOOD OR
BETTER FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.  SATURDAY WILL SEE DOWNWARD
TREND OVERALL WITH SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR WEST...THEN TRENDING
BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A BIT MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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