Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 142332 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

A two-segmented cold front is advancing southward into New Mexico
with gusty winds accompanying. Currently, a plume of residual
moisture is lingering over southeastern portions of the state, but
drier air is pushing in from the west and should scour this out prior
to the cold front arrival there. Therefore, the passage of the cold
front should be a dry one with minimal, if any, cloud cover. Wind
gusts will briefly reach between 30 to 40 kt along the front as it
advances through the eastern plains of the state. Winds will settle
in its wake toward dawn Sunday with clear skies and VFR conditions
prevailing.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will fall to below normal overnight in the wake of a
mostly dry front that is moving through the state this evening.
Winds will increase over the Eastern Plains through the evening hours
as the backdoor front moves southward overnight before diminishing
Sunday morning. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be 5 to
10 degrees below normal with a warming trendexpected through the
week. A chance for precipitation will return to the region ahead of
a storm system on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A mostly quiet pattern is in store for the forecast area through the
week in the wake of a mostly dry cold front that is moving through
the state today. At the upper levels...a 500 mb trough is expected to
swing through the Southern Plains tonight with a backdoor cold front
pushing down the Eastern Plains overnight. This front is currently
visible on GOES-16 WV and radar over SE Colorado and should be
through by mid-morning on Sunday. Winds will increase with this front
over the Eastern Plains to just below advisory criteria before
diminishing Sunday morning. As the upper trough moves through,
temperatures over the state are expected fall to below normal with high
temps on Sunday as much as 10 to 12 degrees below seasonal normals.

For the remainder of the work week, temperatures will warm with
mostly clear skies as an upper ridge builds over the Southwest. This
will keep most of the region in dry northwesterly flow aloft through
Wednesday. A weak shortwave will push transit the area on Wednesday
with very little impact on the sensible weather at the surface. By
Friday, the upper high will give way to a longwave trough over the
West Coast, which will put the area under a broad southwesterly flow
aloft and allow for the reintroduction of PoPs for the region.

While a bit early to be discussing next weekend, models are
continuing to show an interesting range of possibilities for the
evolution of the aforementioned longwave trough. All major models
indicate that a deep trough will come through the area next weekend,
but the form of that trough is the question. Models are in agreement
with the trough axis over the Great Basin late Friday night, but the
GFS wants to pass a deep trough over there area where the EC is
consistent in placing a deep closed low over the Southwest. Both the
GFS and the EC are being consistent with their ensemble means, but
the EC is slightly preferred due to model skill and more members in
its ensemble. Later forecasts will have to be monitored for potential
impacts.

54/Fontenot

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Pacific cold front near a Dulce to Gallup line this afternoon. This
front will push to the southeast this afternoon and evening with
much cooler and much drier air filtering in behind it overnight.
Still not expecting anything near critical given the recent heavy
rainfall. The backdoor portion of the front will surge southward
down the eastern plains tonight. Strong north winds will accompany
the front near the TX border as it slides south overnight.

Temperatures on Sunday will be 15 to 20 cooler across the east, 5 to
10 degrees cooler central areas and a few degrees cooler west.
Monday morning lows will be close to the coldest so far this fall
season. The cool temperatures will make it tough to mix the
atmosphere much, keeping ventilation rates poor for most locations
below about 7000 feet Monday. Some vent rate improvements show up
most areas Tuesday underneath an upper level ridge with "good" rates
across the western mountains, central highlands and northeast
plains. Ridge slides east Wednesday with westerly flow aloft moving
over. Slight improvements in vent rates are forecast Wednesday,
mainly for the western mountains and central highlands.

Zonal flow/weak troughing moves over for Thursday. Then model
forecast diverge greatly after Friday into next weekend. ECMWF
develops a closed low near the Four Corners Saturday night while the
GFS shows an upper trough but keeps it moving eastward. Slightly
favoring the ECMWF solution given slightly better run to run
consistency and the fact that the 51 member ECMWF ensemble mean is
close to the operational run.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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