Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 141801 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1201 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Main afternoon storm activity will develop over the northern and
western mountains. Drier air will act to suppress storm activity
across portions of central and eastern NM. No VCSH or VCTS in KAEG,
KABQ, KTCC or KROW. Storm motion will be slow with heavy rain likely
in the stronger storms. Brief MVFR conditions possible in the
heaviest rain.


.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017...
A fairly typical monsoon thunderstorm pattern is expected this
weekend through the middle of the coming work week with daily rounds
of showers and thunderstorms favoring central and western areas.
Storm motion will vary day to day depending on the position of a mid
level high pressure system that will migrate around the region. Ample
moisture is in place for locally heavy rainfall to be possible each
afternoon and evening through at least Tuesday. High temperatures
will be near and below normal each day.


With a weak mid level low over SE CO, an easterly wave passing
westward just south of NM, and higher pressure to the east and west
of our state, an upper level deformation zone favorable for
convection will remain over the forecast area today. There will be
some subsidence around the periphery of the wave and over central
areas this afternoon, which will probably keep showers and storms
fairly isolated around the central mountains and Albuquerque at least
through the afternoon.

The wave will travel westward over NW Mexico Saturday with some mid
level drying and less convection expected over central, east central
and southeast areas on Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall on Saturday
will probably be relegated to the vicinity of the northern mountains.
The easterly wave will shift westward over the upper Baja Peninsula
Sunday, allowing a richer flow of moisture over the forecast area
from the south and southeast with an uptick in shower and
thunderstorm coverage central, west and north.

After spending a few days west and northwest of NM, the 500 mb high
pressure system is forecast to try to reorganize over the Great
Plains through the first half of the coming work week. The GFS is
less bullish on this than the ECMWF, stubbornly keeping a secondary
high over NM. If the ECMWF is right, a stronger monsoon moisture
plume will result with better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
with more locally heavy rainfall.



Continued chances for afternoon precipitation through the forecast
period with poor to fair ventilation rates over the west with fair
to good over the east. Currently, the upper high is still meandering
around the Four Corners. A slot of mid level dry air ahead of an
easterly wave will act to inhibit convection over the eastern plains
Friday and Saturday. Convection over the central mtn chain,
including the Sandia/Manzanos will likely be limited as well or at
the very least delayed until later in the afternoon, thanks to the
subsidence inversion aloft. Storm motion will once again be split
Friday and Saturday due to a deformation zone oriented from NE NM to
SW NM. Storm motion will generally be from S to N over the northern
mtns, and NE to SW over the Gila and Mogollon.

By Sunday the mid level dry slot exits the region, allowing for
greater coverage of wetting precipitation over western and northern
NM. A better monsoonal plume is expected over western and central NM
for early next week as the upper high begins to shift east. Model
soundings show PWAT values ticking up above 1" persistently during
this time period, lending weight to increased moisture for afternoon

By mid to late next week, the models begin to diverge with just how
far east the upper high slides. The ECM slides the upper high over
the MS Valley, where the GFS keeps it closer to eastern CO. Both
models show a much better monsoonal plume towards the end of the
forecast period, however the ECM places it more squarely over NM
with the GFS a bit further west over AZ.

Temperatures will remain fairly consistent each day, near
climatological norms. Overnight RH recoveries will also remain good
to excellent each night. Winds will also remain fairly relaxed with
the main concerns from gusty erratic downburst winds from any
individual tstorms.





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