Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 080906
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MUCH GREATER THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND ALLOW STORMS TO SHIFT MORE INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBS AND COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT
SHIFTING RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM. A FEW STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
SOUTHEASTERN CO. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE WEST THRU THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME POSITIONED BENEATH THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS FROM THE JEMEZ MTS EAST ACROSS
SANTA FE AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. THIS IS INDICATED VERY WELL
BY THE NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF...AS WELL AS SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE SPC
ENSEMBLE. THE TRICKY SCENARIO IS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY PRECIP NORTH OF THE ABQ METRO. SIDED
WITH THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATING OUTFLOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD
ABQ AND FORCE ROBUST CONVECTION THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER IT DOES
APPEAR THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL STILL OCCUR WITHIN MCKINLEY...RIO
ARRIBA AND SANDOVAL COUNTIES. RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE FOR THIS
AREA AND LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE ABQ/SAF AREA. STEERING FLOW
REMAINS WEAK WEDNESDAY WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO
CENTRAL NM BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. PWAT VALUES RISE TO BTWN 1.0
AND 1.2 FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM SO FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
INCREASING OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BURN SCARS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT STEERING FLOW
IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE SW TO NE...THEN EVENTUALLY WEST TO
EAST. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT STORMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN MORE OUT
ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SE BY SUNDAY AND SHIFT THE
MOIST PLUME MORE WEST TO EAST AND INTRODUCE MORE STABLE/DRY AIR
OVER THE SE PLAINS.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-
RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND MAIN
MOISTURE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FAST MOVING AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN BY LATE MORNING AND THE AZ BORDER BY THIS EVENING. SINCE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MOST UNSTABLE TIME
OF DAY...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THOSE AREAS TODAY. NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS AND THE NE HIGHLANDS WILL ALSO BE FAVORED AS NW FLOW
ALOFT FERRIES A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO SOUTHEASTWARD. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...AND MUCH OF THIS SHOULD
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CENTRAL AND WEST. WITH PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1 INCH...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY. CELLS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST AND NORTH...EXCEPT FOR MORE EASTWARD MOVING ACTIVITY EAST OF
THE SANGRES.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PERSIST MAINLY OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEAK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MODEST MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME DRAPES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY GIVING THE NE AND E CENTRAL
PLAINS AN UPTICK IN WETTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH ALL OF THE
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
EACH DAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...EXCEPT FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE COLD FRONTS TODAY
AND PROBABLY ALSO SUNDAY. TODAYS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY EAST
CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD
AREA OF FAIR TO POOR READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS
ON SUNDAY.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT PENETRATING NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BULGE WEST AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ON TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FOR TUE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL INITIATE
NORTH AND WEST BY 18Z AND EXPANDING TO ALL EAST FACING SLOPES BY
21Z...WITH TRANSPORTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY. TAFS
CARRYING VCTS FOR WINDOW OF GREATEST NEARBY THUNDERSTORM
LIKELIHOOD...WITH VCSH FOR REDUCED CERTAINTY OR CONTINUATION OF
REDUCED THUNDER THREAT. EAST GUSTS THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
GAPS WILL BLOW ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH
GUSTS IN TAFS FOR ABQ...AEG...AND SAF. EXCURSIONS TO IFR AND MVFR
CIGS IN VIZ IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TUE. SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  94  64  89  62 /  30  40  40  30
DULCE...........................  88  49  85  48 /  50  50  50  40
CUBA............................  85  54  83  55 /  50  60  50  60
GALLUP..........................  90  59  86  58 /  40  50  50  40
EL MORRO........................  83  55  79  54 /  60  60  50  50
GRANTS..........................  87  55  84  55 /  30  60  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  84  57  80  57 /  50  60  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  89  56  87  55 /  40  50  40  40
CHAMA...........................  79  46  78  46 /  60  60  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  60  81  61 /  50  60  60  50
PECOS...........................  77  57  78  59 /  50  60  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  53  79  54 /  60  60  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  66  44  70  44 /  70  60  60  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  70  37  74  38 /  60  60  60  40
TAOS............................  81  49  82  50 /  60  50  40  40
MORA............................  74  53  77  54 /  50  60  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  88  58  86  59 /  50  60  40  40
SANTA FE........................  80  61  80  62 /  60  60  50  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  88  59  86  60 /  50  60  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  66  87  66 /  40  60  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  68  89  69 /  20  50  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  65  90  65 /  20  60  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  94  66  91  68 /  30  60  20  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  94  63  92  63 /  20  50  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  94  66  91  67 /  40  60  20  40
SOCORRO.........................  96  70  95  70 /  10  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  88  61  85  62 /  50  60  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  88  61  86  61 /  40  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  57  82  56 /  30  50  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  59  82  58 /  20  50  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  64  85  62 /  20  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  64  86  63 /  10  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  84  56  82  55 /  20  20  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  73  58  80  61 /  40  50  30  30
RATON...........................  76  59  82  60 /  40  40  30  30
SPRINGER........................  80  58  85  59 /  50  50  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  55  80  56 /  30  60  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  84  63  89  66 /  20  30  30  20
ROY.............................  82  62  82  63 /  30  50  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  90  67  90  68 /  20  40  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  90  67  88  66 /  20  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  68  92  69 /  20  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  88  61 /  10  20   5  10
PORTALES........................  93  67  91  65 /  10  20   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  67  90  67 /  10  20  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  95  68  92  66 /   5  10   5  10
PICACHO.........................  88  64  86  63 /   5  10  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  58 /   5  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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