Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251746 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL AND VIS/CIG TRENDS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIKELY IMPACTS NEAR TERM BY SH/TS WOULD
BE TCC/ROW/LVS BUT THAT SHOULD LESSEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND BECOMES MORE MOIST WESTERN/CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SHOULD SEE MORE IMPACT POTENTIAL. GUP/ABQ/AEG
SHOULD SEE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WHICH INCLUDES LOWER CIGS AND
PERHAPS EVEN VIS WOULD BE AFTER 12Z AS A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS WITH THE PRECIPITATION BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT AT
THIS TIME AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH HOWEVER FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TERMINAL SITES AFTER 12Z.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...743 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THIS MORNINGS PRECIPITATION FORECAST BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. ALSO ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING
TO THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST AND INCREASED QPF. THE
PASSING UPPER LOW SHOULD INTERACT WITH TOPOGRAPHY AND RICH MONSOON
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE MARKEDLY TODAY...BUT THE
MAIN WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL ENGULF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AGAIN STARTING
THURSDAY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE
FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AND A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
ENTERS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME COOLER READINGS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ON THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL
PASS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
MEANS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEAR ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST AREAS. EVEN WITH MODELS AGREEING ON A DEEPER AND LESS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW...A DRY SLOT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY MAKING THAT AREA ONE OF
THE LEAST FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION THAT DAY. MODELS ARE HINTING
THAT A PACIFIC FRONT COULD TRIGGER A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...BUT THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO DECREASE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE
THIS POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MAY FORM. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MOST
LIKELY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THEN
CONGEALING INTO A LINE THAT SHIFTS EAST OR NORTHEASTWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...MODEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD IF THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAN BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.

OTHERWISE...THE WEEKEND AHEAD LOOKS WARMER AS DRY AIR GRADUALLY
PREVAILS. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AREAWIDE.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS OVER THE AREA THE TREND WILL BE FOR MUCH
WETTER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER COVERAGE
OF WETTING STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT
REMAIN HOT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE EVEN BETTER FORCING WITH THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TUESDAY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL. MIN RH VALUES WILL LOOK MORE LIKE RECOVERIES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AN OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL EVENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15F BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGER SCALE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER LIFTING MECHANISM AND
FOCUS MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE 3-DAY PERIOD WILL PUSH 1 TO
2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

CHANGES DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A DRY INTRUSION
INVADES THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY...AND PROVIDE SOME
LIFT FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL INTO THURSDAY. MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND BACK INTO THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF
THE REGION WITH THIS DRIER AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE
REGULATED BY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING FROM THE MULTI-DAY RAINFALL
EVENT. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAST THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO TEXAS AND HOW MUCH OF THE DRY INTRUSION SETTLES
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. OVERALL IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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