Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 161735 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1035 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

MVFR/IFR cigs have cleared out of the southeast and KROW this
morning and are not expected to return. Breezy westerly winds will
make their debut across eastern NM this afternoon with gusts up to
30kts at KLVS, and up to 20-25kts at KGUP, KSAF and KTCC. Westerly
winds pick up in strength Friday as an approaching trough gets closer
to NM. Windy conditions are expected to start around late morning
Friday near the end of the current TAF cycle. A few light showers
will also be possible across the northern mtns Fri morning.



.PREV DISCUSSION...233 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017...
West winds will be on the increase today as a Pacific storm moves
into the Pacific Northwest. Strong west winds are expected across
much of the area Friday afternoon but particularly along and east of
the central mountain chain. A cold front will sweep from northwest
to southeast across the state Friday afternoon with another
reinforcing front Friday night. Scattered showers and high mountain
snow showers will accompany the front as it moves through the
northern mountains Friday into Friday night. A few inches of snow
accumulation is likely across the higher peaks of the Tusas and
Sangre de Cristo mountains. Much cooler temperatures will result
areawide over the weekend.


Low clouds with patchy fog starting to develop across the southeast
plains early this morning. Expect this area to expand nwwd during the
early morning, dissipating gradually during the late morning hours.
West winds will be on the increase today ahead of an upper level
trough moving ashore over the PACNW. Winds increase further on
Friday with the potential for strong to high winds from northern and
eastern Sangres and Raton/Johnson/Bartlett mesas including Raton
Pass. Left high wind watch as is for now. Expecting that much of the
area east of the central mountain chain along and north of I-40 will
need a wind advisory Friday afternoon. West winds (downsloping) and
warm temps aloft will lead to near record or record temperatures
across the eastern half of the state Friday afternoon.

Latest NAM and GFS to some extent progging slightly higher QPF
amounts for the Tusas mountains and northern and central Sangres.
Came up with 3-6" snow amounts for locations above about 9K feet in
the Tusas Mountains along and north of U.S. Hwy 64 between Tierra
Amarilla and Tres Piedras. These snow amounts are localized and not
expected to have much impact to travel given the warm ground of late.
An inch or two of snow accumulation is possible in the higher peaks
of Sangres by sunrise Saturday. A much cooler airmass settles in over
the region for the weekend with high temperatures dropping to near
or slight below seasonal average Saturday, warming somewhat across
western NM Sunday. Bone dry airmass along with light winds will
combine to allow temperatures to plummet Saturday night. Latest
temperature guidance did not change so kept the forecast low at the
ABQ Sunport at 30F, two days prior to the all-time record late date.

GFS and ECWMF now pretty similar for early next week, bringing a weak
upper trough through NM on northwest flow aloft Monday and Monday
night. ECWMF generates some puny QPF across the far northwest Monday
night and little else. Both models have dry northwest flow aloft for
Thanksgiving Day along with temperatures above average. ECWMF brings
a closed low through northern NM during the Thanksgiving weekend. GFS
is slow but quite similar with the overall North Pacific/North
American pattern.



A warming trend will continue into Friday in advance of a strong
cold front. Well above normal temperatures are forecast today and
Friday, especially across the Eastern Plains on Friday where a few
locales may set new daily record highs. A lee side trough will
deepen in response to an approaching upper level trough and
associated cold front, with the strongest winds on Friday when windy
to very windy conditions are forecast. A few hours of elevated fire
weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of
the East Central Highlands/Plains, but Friday will definitely be the
more impactful day. Will go with a Fire Weather Watch for the East
Central Plains Friday, where several hours of critical conditions
are likely.

Windy conditions will continue into Friday evening, but much colder
conditions will follow into Saturday morning behind the front. The
cool-down will be relatively short-lived, with a new warming trend
beginning Sunday. Vent rates will take a dive behind the front and
generally be poor/fair, then will be slow to improve next week as
pressure heights increase over the region thanks to a dominant upper
high center forecast to anchor over the Baja Peninsula.



Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ108.

High Wind Watch from 8 PM MST this evening through Friday afternoon
for the following zones... NMZ513-515-527.


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