Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262129
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
429 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE GIVEN
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WE ARE ON THE WESTERN
END OF FLAT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOLER ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH AS A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF THE NEXT WAVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS INDICATED BY THE GFS FROM MID/UPPER WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A WEAK SIGNAL
FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...A MUCH MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED AND FASTER WAVE WOULD FOCUS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ASCENT EAST OF THE AREA AND RESULT IN A
COMPARATIVELY DRIER FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COLLABORATIVE INCLUSION OF VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  73  43  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  35  73  42  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              36  74  43  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  39  76  45  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              36  76  42  83  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  37  74  41  83  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  73  44  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 36  76  39  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  36  74  42  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                34  76  40  83  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  72  44  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   36  73  44  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                40  71  42  84  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              43  73  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/17




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