Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221105 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
505 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Southwest winds at 10 to 15 knots will gradually swing around more
to the west and northwest by later this evening. Skies are
expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

An upper high over Baja and northwest Mexico will provide a dry
northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles today through the
weekend. The upper high will shift east and south early next week
as a short wave trough tracks east from the western states and
across the Rockies. The upper trough will track across the
forecast area next Tuesday and Wednesday with an upper ridge
building next Thursday over the southwestern states and southern
Rockies. An surface ridge will shift east and south away from the
Panhandles today as a lee surface trough over eastern Colorado
and eastern New Mexico moves into the Panhandles tonight and
Thanksgiving Day.

The surface trough will re-establish itself across eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico again by Friday and then move into
the Panhandles Friday. The presence of a weak surface boundary
over the forecast area will keep winds light through the end of
the week. A cold front will finally push through the Panhandles
late Friday and Friday night. Cool surface ridge will then build
in over the forecast area Friday night and Saturday behind the
front and then shift east and south away from the area by Saturday
night. Lee surface trough develops and deepens across eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico Saturday night and Sunday into
early next week as a short wave trough approaches from the
Rockies. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the
middle of next week.


20 foot winds will be less than 15 mph with minimum afternoon
relative humidities above 20 percent today and Thanksgiving Day.
A surface boundary, trough or weak cold front, will push across
the Panhandles Friday ushering in drier air resulting in minimum
afternoon humidities Friday of 15 to 20 percent or so across much
of the Panhandles. However, it appears at this time that the 20
foot winds are expected to remain below 15 mph. Therefore,
confidence is low on elevated or critical fire weather conditions
developing Friday. Elevated or possibly near critical fire weather
conditions could develop early next week, next Monday and
Tuesday, as a lee surface trough deepens across eastern Colorado
and eastern New Mexico, ahead of a cold front, in response to an
approaching upper trough over the Rockies.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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