Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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600
FXUS64 KAMA 022128
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
428 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE REMNANTS OF THE LAST UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE
CURRENTLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
ROCKIES. A STEEP NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW ALOFT WILL GUIDE A QUICK-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH THE TIMING HAVING
IMPLICATIONS FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY 7 PM. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...SO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS BEST
FAVORED FOR SCATTERED STORMS. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY ABOUT 500
J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO...SO NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ONES.

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER-AIR FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN
RECENT DAYS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOT PASSING THE PANHANDLES UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...APART FROM ANY LOCALIZED EFFECTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO EDGE
INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY BUT GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
HIGH WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT LOW- TO MID-50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY EVENING. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CO/KS WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE OVER THE
PANHANDLES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
RECENT EVENTS HAVE SHOWN THE DRYLINE TO HOLD BACK A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST...AND SEE NO DIFFERENT INDICATIONS FOR THIS CASE. AS THE DRYLINE
RETREATS WESTWARD EACH EVENING...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES COULD SEE BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND JUST EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL AID IN PROVIDING LIFT AND
SHEAR FOR STORMS...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-60 KTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON
MONDAY.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  69  43  77  48 /   0  30   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  71  43  79  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              36  66  40  76  44 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  42  71  46  80  51 /   5  20   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              39  71  42  79  46 /   5  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  70  42  79  46 /   0  30   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  71  45  79  49 /   0  30   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 37  68  40  77  44 /   5  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  39  69  42  78  47 /   5  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                38  70  42  78  46 /   0  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                40  71  44  79  48 /   0  20   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  69  44  77  48 /   0  20   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                42  71  46  79  50 /   0  30   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              43  72  47  81  50 /   0  30   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6



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