Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 280404 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1104 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.Aviation...
For the 06Z TAFS, a weak cold front will move into the OK Panhandle
and become qstnry south of KGUY. It appears showers and tstms which
have developed in ern OK Pnhdl will remain east of all TAF sites, so
have omitted tstms from this fcst. Isolated showers and tstms may
form once again on Tuesday. However, decided to not mention this
weather element at any TAF site for Tuesday since it would be near
the edge of this fcst cycle and coverage should be isold so
confidence is low as to which TAF site, if any, might be impacted.

Andrade

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 722 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

Aviation...
For the 00Z TAFS, a weak cold front will move into OK Panhandle later
this evening and become qstnry. This boundary may be the catalyst for
causing additional showers and tstms to develop in this area later
tonight. Have included VCTS at KGUY for a period of time late
tonight. Omitted tstms from the KDHT and KAMA TAF. Isolated showers
and tstms may form once again on Tuesday. However, decided to not
mention this weather element at any TAF site for Tuesday since it
would be near the edge of this fcst cycle and coverage should be
isold so confidence is low as to which TAF site, if any, might be
impacted.

Andrade

Prev Discussion... /Issued 419 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

Discussion...
No real big changes to the grids and forecast through the next 7 to 8
days. Chances for convection will continue during mainly the afternoon
into the evening hours each day although areal coverage will vary day
to day. Upper high over the Great Basin and four corners region will
allow for a mainly northerly and westerly flow aloft. Weakness in the
mid and upper flow today as inverted upper trough over southwest and
far west Texas should allow for convection just south of the forecast
area to lift north and west into the southern portions of the Texas
Panhandle by this evening. Subsidence across the central and northern
portions of the Panhandles should allow for dry conditions through
tonight. However, if convection develops north of the Oklahoma
Panhandle this evening and tonight, the convection may track south
and east across mainly the northern and eastern portions of the
forecast area tonight and again Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Better chances for convection expected during the latter half of this
week into the weekend as the upper high builds south and east across
the southern Rockies and upper troughs over the central Rockies
triggers scattered to numerous convection over the mountains and
higher terrain which propagates south and east into the Panhandles
during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours. Surface low over
southeastern Colorado this evening with frontal boundary draping east
and south across the Oklahoma Panhandle into northern Oklahoma or
southern Kansas will remain quasi-stationary through much of this
week. Depending on areal coverage of convection each afternoon and
evening/nighttime hours, the frontal boundary may sink further south
into the Panhandles or lift north into Kansas. This would make
temperature forecasting a bit challenging this week with possibly
cooler temps across the north or central should the front plunge
further south with increased areal coverage of convection or even
warmer should the front retreat further north with decreased areal
coverage of convection. Will stay close to previous shift temp grids
and forecast for now.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$


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