Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200602
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
102 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR conditions can be expected at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Friday with mainly clear skies. BKN-OVC low clouds are expected
to become broken to overcast after 20Z to 23Z Thursday, however
the ceilings should remain in the VFR category through 00Z Friday.
Winds have shifted out of the north at KGUY and KDHT in the 25
knots range with gusts to near 35 knots until around 17Z to 22Z
Thursday. Then speeds will diminish to around 10 to 15 knots as
winds become northeast to east. Cold front expected in the next
couple of hours at KAMA. Northeast to east winds can be expected
at the Amarillo TAF site 20Z to 23Z Thursday 10 to 15 knots.

Weber

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 523 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Focus for this forecast package will be on thunderstorm chances
tonight (small change for NE parts of the Panhandles) and then
Thursday night through Friday night. Breezy to windy conditions
will be realized on Friday behind a strong cold front. Outside of
this the only other impactful note weather-wise is the potential
for frost Saturday night as we have high pressure, clear skies and
light winds in place for maximum radiational cooling. Finer
details below.

For tonight, as the surface low exits east of the Panhandles, there
is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms across northeastern
parts of the Panhandles tonight. Anything that does occur should
remain below severe criteria as certain variables are lacking across
our forecast area. Instability (CAPE) values are greater across
Kansas and Oklahoma and there is a strong cap in place over our
area. Best chance for showers/thunderstorms will be between 3am
and 7am across far northeastern parts of the Panhandles. Again,
severe weather is not expected.

With around 500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE and decent bulk
shear around 50-65 knots (in the higher CAPE value areas), there
is a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday night via accent through
isentropic lift. Surface triggering mechanism will not be present
due to the fact the surface features will be to the southeast.
Storms will be elevated in nature and the main threat should be
hail and wind. We should have a little break Friday morning
between the Thursday night convection and the convection
Friday/Friday night as a surface low is forecast to pass over the
Panhandles. Stronger storms Friday/Friday night should be east of
the forecast area. We could have a strong to marginally severe
storm across our east, but currently severe weather looks more
favorable east of our area, or in other words across western
parts Oklahoma.

Also to note as a result of the passing surface low on Friday is
the cold front that follows. Behind this cold front Friday
afternoon/evening there will be good mixing, a strong pressure
gradient near the front, and strong height rises (10-15mb/6hrs)
Friday night. Overall, there is a good chance we may need some
sort of wind headline to highlight this threat for strong winds
Friday/Friday night.

Saturday night high pressure will settle in over the area, and wind
speeds will be light and variable with mostly clear skies. These
conditions will maximize radiational cooling overnight and create
conditions favorable for frost formation. We are forecast to have
lows in the mid to lower 30s across a majority of the forecast
area. Since we are getting into the growing season, any sensitive
vegetation may be susceptible to frost if these conditions come
to fruition.

For the remainder of the afternoon/early evening there will be an
elevated to possibly critical fire weather risk as dry conditions
will remain in place with breezy conditions. Look for conditions
to improve soon, or close to sunset as relative humidity values
increase and wind speeds decrease.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                53  73  42  60  37 /  50  20   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  50  54  42  60  36 /  60  60  30   5   0
Boise City OK              47  61  39  57  34 /  40  40  10   5   0
Borger TX                  53  71  43  62  38 /  60  30  10   5   0
Boys Ranch TX              52  74  42  62  37 /  40  20   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  53  76  42  62  37 /  40  10   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               54  76  45  62  39 /  50  20   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 48  68  40  59  35 /  40  20  10   5   0
Guymon OK                  50  59  41  59  36 /  50  50  20   5   0
Hereford TX                52  77  41  63  36 /  30   5   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                52  61  43  60  38 /  70  50  20   5   0
Pampa TX                   52  70  41  59  37 /  60  30  10   5   0
Shamrock TX                54  74  45  62  40 /  70  40  10   0   0
Wellington TX              57  78  47  63  41 /  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/11



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