Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222134
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
434 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level heights are starting to fall this afternoon in response
to a large upper level trough moving across northwestern Nevada. A
weak shortwave is likely assisting thunderstorm development across
the higher terrain of New Mexico. Overall storm motion is toward the
northeast, so an isolated storm or two could move into the far
western portion of the Panhandles this evening, but most activity
should remain north of the area. By Friday, the center of the upper
level low remains across Utah and at the surface a leeside trough
continues to deepen. Dewpoints will increase to the mid 60s across
the far southeastern Texas Panhandle with southeasterly flow and an
isolated storm or two are possible as instability increases. The
higher chances will likely remain further west along the surface
trough on Friday, and spread eastward during the overnight hours as
the surface low departs. Have lowered PoPs just a tad during the
evening and overnight hours into Saturday morning, as any available
shortwave energy appears to be lingering further west closer to the
base of the upper level trough in southern Colorado.

From Saturday onward, forecast confidence wanes as the models
continue to struggle with the evolution of the upper level low. Have
trended toward a solution of the main upper level low lifting
northward Saturday, and thunderstorms developing along the trailing
surface trough across most of the forecast area. Bulk shear values
increase to 30kts to 40kts, so a few strong to severe storms are
possible across the eastern half of the Panhandles, with higher shear
to the west. A much stronger cold front will approach the area
overnight and into Sunday morning, which should help continue
precipitation chances through this period. Have also trended toward
model solutions depicting another closed low developing across New
Mexico on Sunday. This scenario would keep higher precipitation
chances across the area into the Monday timeframe before the feature
begins retrograding westward into Mexico. High temperatures will
likely be below average (upper 70s) to start the workweek, and
gradually approach more normal values by mid-week as upper level
ridging and dry conditions prevail.

Elsenheimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  87  62  82  58 /   5   5  30  30  40
Beaver OK                  65  91  65  86  59 /   5   5  30  40  50
Boise City OK              61  87  52  80  51 /   5  20  40  10  20
Borger TX                  65  89  65  84  60 /   5   5  30  30  40
Boys Ranch TX              63  90  58  85  57 /   5  10  30  20  30
Canyon TX                  61  87  60  83  57 /   5   5  30  30  40
Clarendon TX               62  88  66  82  61 /   5  10  30  60  50
Dalhart TX                 62  89  55  81  53 /   5  20  30  10  20
Guymon OK                  64  90  60  85  56 /   5  10  30  20  30
Hereford TX                62  87  59  83  57 /   5   5  30  30  30
Lipscomb TX                65  89  68  86  61 /   5   5  30  50  60
Pampa TX                   63  87  64  81  59 /   5   5  30  40  50
Shamrock TX                64  89  68  83  62 /   5  10  30  60  60
Wellington TX              64  90  69  85  64 /   5  10  30  60  60

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/18


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