Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 212354 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
554 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, an upper level storm system along with the
associated surface cold front will move across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles this evening and tonight. This will result in periods of
light rain which will likely become a light rain and light snow mix
late tonight as temperatures fall behind the cold front. In addition,
after the cold front moves through, winds will become northwest to
north, increase in speed and become gusty for several hours. Conditions
will rapidly improve by around 12Z to 13Z Sunday.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough currently crossing the southern rockies will
lead to the development of a surface low over the Texas Panhandle
now through this evening evening. An area of rain showers is
current moving over the central Texas Panhandle associated with
PVA along the leading edge of the upper level wave. This rain will
continue pushing northeast as the surface low strengthens behind
it and a more pronounced deformation zone develops along the north
and east side of the low. 850-700 mb frontogenesis should maximize
along the deformation zone this evening through the very early
morning hours Sunday and help wrap precip around the low with a
focus along the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma
Panhandle. All indications point to the primary precip type being
rain as dew points (and hence web bulb temp) will struggle to fall
to the freezing mark at the surface for most of the area with the
main exception being the northwestern zones where wet bulb temps
should drop to freezing prior to precip ending and thus snow
should mix in mainly between 9 PM and 3 AM tonight. At this time
only expecting a few tenths of an inch of snow around Boise City,
Dalhart and perhaps as far east as Guymon. Total QPF amounts
should will range from a trace to a few tenths of an inch with
heavier amounts in the northern zones where precipitation should
persist longer.

The other concern with the passage of the upper wave and
strengthening surface low is increasing gradient winds especially
with the associated frontal passage overnight. High res models show
windy conditions developing behind the departing surface low as
north/northwest winds increase isallobaricly mainly along the
western half of the CWA tonight. 20 to 30 mph winds will be possible
for a few hours with gust up to 40 mph. Not currently going with a
wind advisory as current expectation is for winds to stay just below
criteria...but the evening shift should continue to monitor latest
data for a possible issuance later if winds look to be a bit
stronger than what is currently forecasted.

Precipitation will end from west to east with most of the Panhandles
drying out by sunrise with the possible exception of a few lingering
showers in the far east. An upper level ridge will start to build in
as temperatures clime into the 50s on Sunday and 60s/70s on Monday
with mostly clear skies. The next upper low moves in off the Pacific
late Monday into Tuesday. An associated very strong mid level jet is
progged to cross the Texas Panhandle Tuesday. Boundary layer mixing
should also be good Tuesday pending high level clouds which will
lead to possible advisory criteria or perhaps even warning criteria
winds late Tuesday morning into the late afternoon.

Beyond Tuesday models in decent agreement with upper wave lifting
northeast becoming a positive tilt trough over the Ohio/MS valleys.
This will keep the Panhandles in a northwest or even zonal flow
aloft keeping temperatures near average with mostly dry
conditions.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$


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