Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 271806
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
106 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS
EVENING DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH
RESPECTIVE SITE. CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
KAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BRING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY AROUND 08-09Z AND KAMA AROUND
13-14Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MOST ACTIVE DAY
WILL BE TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD FORM
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AHEAD OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO BUT BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST INTO TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. WEAKENING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS...AND A GRADUAL WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AND WEAKENS
BY MID WEEK AND DEEPER MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

8/6


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