Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222311 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
511 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ANY RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE OVER FOR DHT AND GUY AND THESE SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST. AT AMA...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. STRONG NORTH
WINDS DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE IN THE
32 TO 37 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST MAINLY AT THE DHT TAF SITE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO ENTER IT IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW POSTED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. LATEST SURFACE OBS REVEAL LOWERING
CEILINGS OVER THE PANHANDLES AND THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AT CLAYTON.
THESE TRENDS ARE IN LINE WITH NWP WHICH OVERSPREAD DEEP FORCING
EASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...BUT QUICKLY
TRANSLATE THIS ASCENT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST
TEXAS. THIS FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF AN INTENSE
150+ MPH UPPER AIR JET NOW DIVING INTO THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT SERIES DEPICT FAVORABLE PROFILES
FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
AROUND 03Z. TODAY/S SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES
AROUND 40 DEGREES /WTM/ WILL LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...
BUT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL BETWEEN 00-06Z...
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SREF 1 INCH
ACCUMULATION PROBABILITIES IN EXCESS OF 70 PERCENT. A SLOWER
TRANSITION TO A SUB-FREEZING COLUMN SHOULD LIMIT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND THE QUICK SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF FORCING WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. WILL
MAINTAIN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LESSER ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE BROADER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1
INCH.

AS SUCH...FORCING/ASCENT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY
SUNRISE...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE RAMPING UP IN THEIR WAKE...WITH HEADLINE MAGNITUDE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY

PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD DESPITE
MULTIPLE SHRTWV TROUGHS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. LACKING
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
AN UPR TROUGH PASSAGE FRI-SAT. ANOTHER STRONGER UPR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ITS PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS TOMORROW. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND HOISTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE NW PANHANDLES, WHERE BUFR
SOUNDINGS AT KDHT INDICATE UP TO 51 KTS AT AROUND 1500FT AGL. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
HELD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEADLINES. DID ADD
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE NW PANHANDLES GIVEN A PREDOMINATELY SNOW
FREE SOURCE REGION IN SERN CO AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST NEAR RECENTLY HARVESTED FIELDS. ALSO ADDED A SMALL AREA
OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE WE THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE BEST TONIGHT.

AFTER A SEASONALLY "NORMAL" DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SANTA MAY NEED THAT
GLASS OF MILK TO COOL OFF ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS H85 MIX DOWN
TECHNIQUES YIELD BREEZY HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST FOLKS.

ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD PASS DRY ON THU NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR FRI BEFORE ANOTHER MODEST WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE NOTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 40 PERCENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONGER SW WINDS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...MOORE...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DEAF SMITH.

OK...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/05




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