Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261648 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS, WE`VE LOWERED
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM. THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL BE WEST OF A BEAVER TO AMARILLO LINE.

STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS RAMBUNCTIOUS THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY,
OWING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS BUOYANCY. IN FACT, THE 1200 UTC
KAMA RAOB SHOWS WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN YESTERDAY, DESPITE
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RAP
SOLUTION ONLY PROGS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG, BUT
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VALUES REMAINING BELOW 800 J/KG.
WE STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST STORM, BUT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS TODAY.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
TERMINAL PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT KAMA THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AT
KAMA...KDHT...KGUY TERMINALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
AGAIN EXPECTED AFTER 26/21Z. ALL THREE TERMINALS MAY BE
AFFECTED...WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT A SITE.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME BEING SUPPORTED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET.  HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE MORNING TODAY.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  POPS IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT TONIGHT...DUE TO EXPECTED DYNAMICS PASSING
OVER DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD EAST TO INCLUDE ALL OF
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...DUE TO EXPECTED WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND
850 MB.  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...OWING TO EXPECTED POSITION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.

POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE BEEN INCREASED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS....BASED ON EXPECTED DYNAMICS TRAVERSING
INSTABILITY AXIS AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

HEALTHY POPS RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.  NO POPS SATURDAY AND
BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20
PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY.  RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN WESTERN SECTIONS...BUT WETTING RAINS
THIS WEEK WILL MAINTAIN FUEL MOISTURE...PRECLUDING ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

CLK/JJ





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