Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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928
FXUS64 KAMA 012119
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
419 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE. A FEW CHANCES AT RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PANHANDLES HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY.

NF

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE OCCASIONAL SLEET OR EVEN SNOW
MIXING IN...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL CEASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY
TOMORROW MORNING...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THAT TIME. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE HEARD AT TIMES. AS
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS COULD DROP LOW ENOUGH TO
SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLES. HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH WHICH WOULD AID FROST
DEVELOPMENT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON WHICH WOULD LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 8
AM CDT MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING EARLY
THIS WEEK FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL DISPLACE THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR EAST...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP
THE TIMING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE AND IT MAY END UP PASSING TOO EARLY IN
THE DAY TUESDAY FOR US TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP IN OUR CWA.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
FROM THE PACIFIC. THE ECMWF NOW LAGS SLIGHTLY IN ITS TIMING COMPARED
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE SLOWER
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM. CURRENTLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN CASE ANY STORMS
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS...AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES. STILL
THINKING THAT SATURDAY EVENING HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. DEPENDING ON THE
SYSTEM STRENGTH AND TIMING...THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP ACROSS THE
WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY EVENING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 70 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  62  40  68  43 /  20   5   5  20   5
BEAVER OK                  36  65  38  71  43 /  60   5  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              33  59  36  67  39 /  60   5  10  20   5
BORGER TX                  39  64  41  69  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              35  63  38  70  42 /  30   5   5  20   5
CANYON TX                  35  62  38  69  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
CLARENDON TX               40  64  41  70  45 /  20   5   5  20   5
DALHART TX                 34  61  36  69  40 /  40   5  10  20   5
GUYMON OK                  37  63  39  69  43 /  60   5  10  20   5
HEREFORD TX                35  63  38  70  42 /  20   5   5  30   5
LIPSCOMB TX                40  63  39  70  44 /  50   5   5  20   5
PAMPA TX                   38  61  40  68  44 /  30   5   5  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                42  65  40  71  46 /  30   5   5  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              43  66  41  72  47 /  20   5   5  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/6



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