Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191434
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
934 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
WARRANT REFINEMENTS IN THE FORECAST.

CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
REMNANT CORE/MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN
BASIN. MEANWHILE A NARROW LOBE OF MOISTURE ALOFT IS BEING STRETCHED
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND SQUEEZED BY DRY/
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STUBBORN RIDGE ALOFT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING BENEATH THIS MOIST PLUME OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INSIST THAT COVERAGE/
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT
AS THE REMNANT SYSTEM/S CORE TRANSLATE THE AREA...HOWEVER...LATEST
TRENDS AND MANY HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INTRODUCE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL INDEED INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT NOW APPEARS THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS AS OPPOSED TO A COHERENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. THAT POTENTIAL
REMAINS FOR MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...BUT GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE.

HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WHERE AMBLE MOISTURE/FORCING RESIDE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE REMNANTS OF ODILE.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                76  63  76  60  79 /  70  60  50  30  30
BEAVER OK                  86  67  84  63  82 /  20  40  50  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              80  63  81  59  77 /  20  30  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  81  68  79  66  81 /  50  60  50  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              77  65  78  61  79 /  70  70  30  30  30
CANYON TX                  75  63  76  60  78 /  70  70  40  30  30
CLARENDON TX               80  66  80  63  82 /  60  70  60  30  30
DALHART TX                 77  63  79  57  77 /  50  50  30  20  30
GUYMON OK                  83  63  82  60  81 /  20  40  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                74  63  74  61  77 /  70  70  40  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                84  66  82  63  82 /  20  50  60  20  30
PAMPA TX                   80  65  78  62  81 /  50  60  50  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                83  67  82  63  83 /  50  70  60  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              83  67  83  65  85 /  60  70  60  30  30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE LIFT
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF
SITES AFTER 17Z TO 20Z TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE GUYMON TAF SITE UNTIL
AFTER 05Z TO 07Z SATURDAY WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z TODAY...AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 02Z TO 08Z SATURDAY
TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.  SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REAP THE BENEFITS
OF OLD TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN SECTIONS AS WELL
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS AS EARLIER
CONFIGURED...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

REMNANTS OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...DUE
PARTLY TO EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT PACIFIC
TROPICAL STORM POLO.  THUS...CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NECESSARY
THRESHOLDS AND FUELS ARE MOISTENED BY WETTING RAINS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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