Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250006
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
706 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS
THROUGHOUT. A FEW STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCLUDED A VCTS AT KAMA AS THIS SITE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE
A STORM MOVE CLOSE.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPED EAST OF A PALO DURO CANYON TO LIPSCOMB LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GREATLY DIMINISH BY 7
PM AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 PM. NO OTHER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BACK
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A
GUYMON TO DALHART LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY
MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE ACTION. CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY WANE BY 11
PM, BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN`T BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AFTER 12 AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE CARDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANY OF THE STORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
ANY STORMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BACK OFF A FEW
DEGREES, BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A
WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES. THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PANHANDLES
THURSDAY, BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW THE FRONT HANGING UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND MIXING OUT ON SATURDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DEEP SHEAR INCREASES
TO AROUND 25-30 KT. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/19





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