Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 140528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017


For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. Winds will be light and variable for the most part,
but could see a period of more southerly dominate winds in the
afternoon. Otherwise, high clouds will be in the area throughout
the day.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 926 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/

Added isolated showers and thunderstorms to the southern Texas
Panhandle for the rest of the night. Lift along a southward moving
outflow boundary along with weak instability are both helping to
produce a few showers and thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 544 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/

The best chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to be at the
GUY TAF site this evening. We have gone ahead and added a tempo
group for GUY from 00Z to 04Z. A boundary will likely slip south
across the DHT and GUY TAF sites overnight. Winds may pick up some
with the passage of this boundary, but for the most part it should
leave DHT and GUY light and variable. At this point, do not
believe that the boundary will quite make it to AMA. The winds may
respond to the west as this boundary approaches around sunrise,
but winds will move back to the southeast as the boundary
dissipates by mid day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017/

Predominately tranquil forecast throughout the Panhandles into
middle of next week where most areas will remain dry with high
temperatures near or slightly above average.

Current radar and satellite observations are
showing storms developing off the high terrain of CO/NM in-
conjunction with obs showing a surface convergence zone just
northwest of Cimarron County, OK. Environment shows moderate CAPE
with weak shear which supports more of pulsing thunderstorms. Best
chances of a storm will be in the far western OK Panhandle and
far NW TX Panhandle. If these storms train with weak upper level
flow, heavy downpours and localized flooding is possible.

Going from Friday into the weekend, a cold front will move into
our northern areas before stalling out. Weak convergence along the
front will bring more chances of showers and storms across the
northern Panhandles Friday and Saturday. As we go into Sunday,
latest 13/12Z model and probabilistic guidance are hinting at an
equatorward inverted upper level trough downstream of propagating
ridge axis into the central CONUS. Localized lift may increase
chances of showers and storms across the entire region during the
day on Sunday.

Going into early next week, the center of a large upper level high
pressure system will remain over eastern Kansas. As the northern
stream jet moves equatorward and suppresses the ridge into the
southeastern states, a return of southeasterly flow advecting
moisture into the region, monsoon flow will return to the Four
Corers region with an isolated chance of a storm returning to far
western areas with confidence remaining low at this time.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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