Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201111
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
611 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.Aviation...
12Z Issuance...KAMA is currently LIFR. KDHT is MVFR and KGUY is IFR.
Low stratus and fog affecting the sites will burn off by 15Z and
leave all sites VFR. Winds will be southwesterly until 01Z where they
turn more southeasterly. KAMA may have some gusty winds during the
day today. Fog and low stratus may form again after 06Z but
confidence is too low attm to put in taf this far out.

Beat

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 406 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

Discussion...
An upper ridge will build over the Panhandles today and tonight with
the upper flow transitioning to southwesterly on Saturday as the
upper ridge moves off to the east and an approaching closed upper low
over the Great Basin region moves slowly east. A surface trough to
the lee of the Rockies across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico
today will deepen into the weekend. This surface trough should
sharpen into a dryline by Saturday and Sunday over eastern New Mexico
and near the Texas and New Mexico state line. Southerly winds will
increase as the pressure gradient tightens up allowing for low level
moisture to advect into the Panhandles and the atmosphere to
destabilize with plenty of diurnal heating. Convection expected to
develop by mid to late afternoon Saturday which some storms could
become severe late afternoon and evening Saturday. Convection
expected to develop once again Sunday afternoon and evening which
also should become severe. Large hail and damaging winds expected to
be the primary hazards...however an isolated tornado or two cannot
be ruled out especially Sunday afternoon and evening.

Dryline and cold front should push across the Panhandles Sunday night
or Monday morning with lingering convection possible over the eastern
portions of the forecast area. Convection could possibly develop late
Tuesday mainly across the eastern Panhandles as another cold front
pushes south into the forecast area Tuesday night. Drier conditions
expected for most of next week with another cold front by Thursday
night. ECMWF does forecast the possibility for convection mainly by
00Z Thursday and after 18Z Thursday...although the GFS remains dry.
Decided to go with a dry forecast for now given the uncertainties
with the model solutions that far out.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11



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