Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200948
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
448 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED FROM WHAT WAS SEEN IN YESTERDAYS MODELS. FOR TODAY
...THE SFC TROF IN ERN NM MAY ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN SECTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS.
SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS AREA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN THE GRIDS. THE SAME
SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. SLGT CHC POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FOR THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY THRU NEXT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF THE
LATTER HALF OF JULY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND REMAIN AROUND THE
VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS TRANSLATES TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE A FEW
CAVEATS TO THE ABOVE. THE LATEST 00Z GFS...CMC...AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO REORIENT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FURTHER W TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATER NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BEGIN TO PUT
OUR FCST AREA IN SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES INTO AT LEAST THE NRN
ZONES. ONE SUCH BOUNDARY IS SLATED FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
WITH A SECOND BOUNDARY INDICATED FOR NEXT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. EITHER ONE OR BOTH OF THESE PROGGED BOUNDARIES MAY YIELD SOME
TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN BOUNDARY STRENGTH AND HOW
FAR INTO OUR FCST AREA EACH ONE GETS...MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
STRENGTH...AND THE EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS IF CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FABORABLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RECENT RAINS...EXTENSIVE GREENUP...
FOREAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...
20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH...AND LOW ERC VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  70  97  69  98 /   5   5   5  10   5
BEAVER OK                  99  71 101  71 102 /   5   5   5  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              95  66  97  66  97 /  20  20  20  20   5
BORGER TX                  98  73 100  73 100 /   5   5   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              95  68  98  68  98 /  20  20  20  20   5
CANYON TX                  94  69  97  69  98 /   5   5   5  10   5
CLARENDON TX               95  71  98  71 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 97  66  99  67  99 /  20  20  20  20   5
GUYMON OK                  99  70 102  70 102 /   5   5  10  20   5
HEREFORD TX                94  69  96  69  97 /  20  20  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                96  71  99  71 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   96  70  98  71  99 /   5   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                95  72  98  72 100 /   5   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              95  73  99  73 101 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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