Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 222340
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
640 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Generally clear sky expected this evening as southeast surface
winds in the 15 to 20 kt range prevail.  Low clouds expected to
make a return late tonight and early Thursday morning, but do not
expect duration of MVFR or IFR ceilings to be as long as was
experienced today.  Southerly surface winds expected to gust into
the 35 to 40 kt range during the afternoon on Thursday.

Isolated thunderstorms expected after 21z Thursday, potentially
impacting AMA or GUY before 00z Friday.  Will not include in
terminals at this time due to low certainty of such occurrence.
Better chances with greater coverage expected in the 00z to 06z
Friday time frame, just beyond the scope of this forecast.

Note:  Widespread telephone outage in the Dalhart area precludes
remote monitoring of DHT surface observations.  Will keep the AMD
NOT SKED remark in the DHT forecast until communications are
restored.

Cockrell

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds have finally disappeared for most of the Panhandles. Just a
small bunch are hanging on in the southeast TX Panhandle. Clouds
are expected to build back in overnight and slowly erode again
tomorrow as moisture continues getting pumped in from the south.
The increase in moisture will join upper level dynamics, as a mid-
level closed low gets closer to the area, to allow for severe
weather to become possible for the Panhandles. Models are still in
a bit of disagreement over the exact track of the low. Short
range models are indicating that the low may move more northerly
than previously anticipated. Currently, we are still in a
favorable enough position for storms, but if the low were to track
much further north, we would end up dry slotted. CAPE is kind of
on the meager side, but bulk shear is strong and mid-level lapse
rates are high. DCAPE and low level parameters aren`t looking
great. Thus, hail, around quarter size to a bit larger, and strong
winds, 60 to 70 mph, will be the greatest threats. Tornado threat
looks to be very low. CAMS seem to be in fairly good agreement on
discrete cells to start and changing into a linear pattern.
Whether or not the line forms before storms exit our area will be
something to watch for. Initiation looks to be between 4 and 7 pm
eastward of a line from Hereford to Stratford and west of a line
from Clarendon to Perryton. Storms will move eastward and should
be exiting the Panhandles after 1 am.

Meanwhile, during the day on Thursday, winds will be breezy and RH
values in the western Panhandles will drop into the teens and
create fire weather concerns. The winds will stay breezy overnight
and increase on the back side of the low on Friday to become
strong. Northerly winds look to be between 30 and 45 mph with
gusts up to 60 mph. A High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory will
likely be needed for western and central portions of the
Panhandles accordingly. Winds should start to come down overnight
and turn more southerly on Saturday as high pressure fills in. The
next shortwave moves through the area on Sunday and and brings
chances for rain and thunderstorms in the north and elevated fire
weather in the south.

The beginning of the work week will see conditions dry out before
the next big system hits mid-week. Long range models are in
terrible disagreement over this system. The GFS tries to close off
the low and dig it southward into the western CONUS. The ECMWF
tries to move a brief weak wave through the central plains that
just glances the area, and the Canadian is in between the two. For
now, have just kept a model blend until more consensus is
gathered.

Beat

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
for the western TX and OK Panhandles. RH values will drop to between
12 and 20 percent and 20 foot winds will be southerly between 25 and
35 mph. Central and eastern portions of the Panhandles are
expecting thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon through late
evening.

Winds will turn northerly by Friday and will be strong with winds
30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. RH values should remain
above 20 percent on Friday.

Elevated conditions will again be possible on Sunday as RH values
drop into the upper teens for the southern TX Panhandle and winds
will be around 15 mph.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  80  45  60  37 /   0  20  80  10   5
Beaver OK                  48  82  46  65  37 /  10  10  80  30  20
Boise City OK              49  80  40  56  31 /   5  10  20  40   5
Borger TX                  57  82  46  63  38 /   5  20  80  20   5
Boys Ranch TX              51  83  46  61  34 /   5  20  30  10   0
Canyon TX                  51  81  44  61  36 /   5  20  80   5   5
Clarendon TX               53  81  46  65  39 /   5  20  60   5   5
Dalhart TX                 48  81  40  57  31 /   5  10  10  20   5
Guymon OK                  53  84  44  59  34 /   5  20  60  30   5
Hereford TX                53  81  43  61  35 /   5  20  60   5   0
Lipscomb TX                49  81  48  66  39 /  10  10  70  20  10
Pampa TX                   55  81  45  62  36 /   5  20  60  20   5
Shamrock TX                53  82  48  69  41 /   5  10  80   5   5
Wellington TX              54  83  49  71  41 /   5  10  70   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/36



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