Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 242046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A VERY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS IN PLACE
LOCALLY BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW FOR AUGUST
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN ROUNDING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...BUT LARGER-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS HOLDING CONVECTION AT
BAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOES/PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGER FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO OK WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK H85-H7
CONVERGENCE. THESE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA AND ANY RAIN THAT
REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE VERY LIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. THINK CONVECTION CURRENTLY FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK /AOB 10 KTS/ AND
RADAR TRENDS THUS FAR SHOW CONVECTION STAYING PINNED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A WEAK
/20-25 KT/ SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP...PRODUCING SOME WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF LIFT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANY PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES...BUT WILL LIKELY BRING
INCREASING MID AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THIS TIME...ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. CAN/T TOTALLY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT CHANCES APPEAR
MINIMAL. A SUBTLE RISE IN HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA ABOARD
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE...MOVING
ACROSS WY INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE MOMENTARILY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER
INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

ANY POST-FRONTAL COOLING FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL...WITH WARM
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  90  66  92  68 /   5  10  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  62  92  67  96  71 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  92  64  92  67 /  10   5   5   5  20
BORGER TX                  67  92  69  95  71 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  92  67  94  69 /   5  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  64  90  65  93  67 /   5  10  10  10   5
CLARENDON TX               64  90  67  94  68 /  10  10  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 64  92  65  93  67 /  10   5   5   5  10
GUYMON OK                  63  94  67  96  70 /   5   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                64  90  65  92  67 /   5  10  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                64  91  68  96  71 /  10  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   65  89  68  93  69 /  10  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                65  90  68  94  69 /  10  10  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              66  91  68  96  70 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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