Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 242335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
535 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS STILL
SOME SIGNAL FOR FG/MIFG IN THE MODELS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE SNOWPACK BUT WITH WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE CONTINUING
BELIEVE THIS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PREVENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THIS EVENING BRINGING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY. KEPT
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER AT KGUY BUT ALSO RAISED SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS DURING THAT PERIOD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT INCREASING WINDS
ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SUFFICIENTLY FOR ONLY MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BEST. SO THIS MAY NOT BE THE CLASSIC SCENARIO OF
A SHARPLY DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MUCH
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THAT IS OFTEN SEEN WITH AN OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET SETUP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO
REMOVE LLWS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ALSO WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY OVER THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...MAINLY FROM KAMA AND KGUY
EASTWARD. MAY NEED TO RAISE WIND SPEEDS AT THESE TWO TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION LOOK MINIMAL.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE
NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.

THE MELT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THANKS TO AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND DOWNSLOPE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE...WITH MID-AFTERNOON READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE SNOWPACK...TO THE 50S ACROSS THE
SNOW FREE AREAS IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.

A 120-150KT UPPER JET CURRENTLY NOSING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...TAKING ITS ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED
NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
MIXED ENOUGH TO BOTH PRECLUDE ANY PATCHY FOG THAT OTHERWISE MIGHT
RESULT FROM TODAY/S SNOWMELT...AND ALSO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP A TOUCH
FROM WHAT OTHERWISE MIGHT BE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW COVER. THIS FRONT
WILL DELAY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR ONE MORE DAY...BUT TEMPS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 50S IN MOST SPOTS ON SUNDAY.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MILD TEMPERATURES AS
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTS HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY PARKED OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
OPEN UP AND RIDE THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...FLATTENING IT
AROUND MID NEXT WEEK AND SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS WITH HOW THE UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATE NEXT
WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND WHETHER WE/LL SEE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
DURING THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE MIGHTILY WITH A SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME...AS THEY/RE NOTORIOUS FOR DOING. THE
GFS PHASES NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH A CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CA/BAJA...WITH THE END RESULT BEING A MUCH WETTER
SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION NEXT FRIDAY-SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND KEEPS MUCH MORE FLOW SEPARATION...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PUSHING COOL/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WHILE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST/BAJA REGION...WHICH KEEPS THIS ENTIRE PERIOD DRY FOR THE
PANHANDLES. WITH CONFIDENCE SEVERELY LACKING GIVEN THE SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW DURING THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/17




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