Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190755
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
255 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A closed upper level low over Colorado had a vort max in the base of
its circulation moving east across eastern Arizona.  A cold front
was pushing south across the east central and southeast Texas
Panhandle. This cold front should move southeast of the CWA by
sunrise.  Upper level diffluence and instability will increase across
the northwest half of the CWA today as the Arizona vort max moves
across this area today. Therefore, will keep the highest pops across
this region. The upper level dynamics and instability may be just
enough to produce some strong thunderstorms with one or two severe
with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Will also keep
some lower pops elsewhere given the increase in upper level
diffluence and the close proximity of the cold front.

Some low pops will be retained across the northern CWA tonight as
the better dynamics continue to move just north of our area.

Will keep Saturday dry as the upper level storm system moves away
from the panhandles.

The panhandles will be under a northwest flow aloft through the rest
of the forecast as a ridge builds across the western U.S. and a
trough gets carved out across the eastern U.S.

This northwest flow aloft will bring an occasional short wave trough
across the region Sunday through Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday the
flow aloft becomes weaker and it may be tougher to bring any
mountain convection all the way into the panhandles.

A strong short wave will move across the panhandles on Monday and
Monday night. This will provide us with the best chance of
precipitation beyond today.

Temperatures will be around normal or below until upper level
heights begin to rise on Thursday brining temperatures above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  43  71  46  79 /  20   5   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  63  44  69  45  79 /  40  30   0   0  20
Boise City OK              53  38  65  43  75 /  70  30   0  10  20
Borger TX                  65  45  70  48  81 /  20  10   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              67  42  72  46  82 /  30   5   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  68  43  72  46  80 /  20   5   0   0   5
Clarendon TX               73  46  71  48  77 /  20  10   0   0   5
Dalhart TX                 57  39  69  43  78 /  60  10   0   5  10
Guymon OK                  58  42  68  45  79 /  60  30   0   5  20
Hereford TX                68  42  72  46  80 /  20   5   0   0   5
Lipscomb TX                67  46  69  46  79 /  20  20   0   0   5
Pampa TX                   65  44  69  46  77 /  20  10   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                74  48  70  47  78 /  30  10   0   5   5
Wellington TX              77  49  73  49  79 /  30  10   0   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15


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