Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 291138
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL VEER TO THE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS ATTM...BUT A MENTION MAY BE NEEDED LATER IF CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AHEAD REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH FEW
NOTABLE CHANGES MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN
BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MOSTLY
STATIONARY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THAT TIME. RAIN
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THIS FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL DAYS WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GIVE WAY NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE.

TODAY...A FEW WEEK SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY LINGER PAST SUNRISE. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE
NOTED UPSTREAM ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...AND THESE WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. A FEW
COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO REMAINS STRETCHED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND
COULD HELP TO FOCUS RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST DAYS SO FAR THIS
SUMMER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD SEE SEVERAL LOCATIONS
HIT 100 DEGREES EITHER AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID- TO UPPER 90S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO EASE UP HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MODELS AGREE ON THE WEST-EAST SURFACE TROUGH STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY TROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AND A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TO HELP WITH RAIN CHANCES. THERE IS LITTLE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME...BUT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
INCREASED DUE TO SLOWER STORM MOTIONS. MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
RAIN CHANCES CLEARING OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/06




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