Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 170530
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail through 06Z Sunday. Light winds,
mainly southeast to south, 5 to around 10 knots will be the rule
at all three TAF sites. Winds will shift to the north and
northeast and increase to around 20 to 30 knots with gusts near 35
knots after 02Z to 04Z Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

AVIATION...
Winds will generally be around 10 knots or less through this
forecast. However, they will turn more to the north Saturday
morning at DHT and GUY and by early afternoon at AMA behind a
surface trough. Winds will then become northeast later Saturday
afternoon. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
As one forecaster put it, "the heat is on" across the Panhandles.
Our temperatures have already reached into the upper 90s with
Palo Duro Canyon floor reaching 106. Should Dalhart reach it`s
forecast high of 102 then we will break a record high set in 1994
(see climate section for all details). Have kept the heat
advisory as is for today and should be able to expire by 7PM.

Tomorrow continues to be the hottest conditions this season with
much of the area expected to reach 105. The "lucky" ones may be
the far northwest corner of Cimarron county where northerly winds
will likely keep them below the century mark. It will certainly be
of vital importance for anyone planning outdoor activities
(especially in the Palo Duro Canyon) to have access to gallons of
water to stay hydrated and to rest often in shaded areas. The Heat
Advisory has been left as is, but we will have to watch our
typical "hot spots" as we may need to upgrade to an Excessive Heat
Warning.

We will get a break from the heat on Sunday thanks to a late night
cold front Saturday night. You won`t have trouble noticing the
cold front as it pushes through as we could see sustained winds
of 35mph with gusts near 50mph (mainly western zones) immediately
behind the front. Forecast models have continued to back off on
the potential for precip along this front but held onto low end
pops late Saturday night for the far northern zones.

Monday will be the start of a warming trend under northwest flow
aloft. The northwest flow could allow for periods of off and on
convection as embedded shortwaves traverse round the building
ridge. Medium range models show a rather significant upper ridge
slowly building towards the Panhandles. This could result in
several more days of heat advisories to come.

Climate...

Record high temperatures for the 16th and 17th

June 16th
Amarillo....107 set in 2011 (forecast 5 degrees cooler)
Borger......108 set in 2011 (forecast 4 degrees cooler)
Dalhart.....101 set in 1994 (forecast to be broken)

June 17th
Amarillo....106 set in 1924 (forecast to match record)
Borger......106 set in 1970 (forecast to be broken)
Dalhart.....102 set in 1949 (forecast to be broken)

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Moore...Ochiltree...
     Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Texas.


&&

$$

11/3



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