Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151557
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
957 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.UPDATE...

IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. OBS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME WESTERLY AND DOWN SLOPING ARE
MUCH WARMER THAN HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS INDICATE SO HAVE UPDATED
THOSE ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND AND SKY
GRIDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON THE SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
BASED ON A GLANCE AT 12Z MODELS REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
WILL CONTINUE TO EXAMINE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND MAKE ANY NEEDED CHANGES
FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE BUT PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ARE THAT
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SIGNIFICANT DEVIATIONS ARE
UNLIKELY.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE INITIALLY WITH SOUTH WINDS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO ROTATE AROUND THE DIAL OUT OF THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NNE AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. DID ADD -SN MENTION AT KGUY...AND MENTIONS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AT KDHT AND KAMA RIGHT NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR IS POISED TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TIMING
OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROVE TO BE A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE...AND HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST PCKG.
HAVE BROUGHT IT INTO THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AROUND SUNSET. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY TIGHT MAX
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS.

FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS
PROGGED TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FCST AREA.
DECENT LIFT FROM THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO AFFECT
NWRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST LIFT IS FCST TO BE JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
SATURATION IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SUCH THAT LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWS APPEAR MORE LIKELY. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FROM 06Z SUNDAY UNTIL 00Z MONDAY FOR
ALL COUNTIES IN THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW HAVE
BEEN PAINTED IN THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION GRID ENDING AT 00Z
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER...WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FORESEEN FROM THE NORTH STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING SWD WITH TIME. NO POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS SHORTWAVE
TROF SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TEMPERED SOMEWHAT FOR NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT THE TX AND OK PNHDLS
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FCST CYCLE. HAVE GONE WITH A MODEL BLEND AT
THIS TIME PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

17/14





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