Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192320 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.Aviation...
AMA should fall into the IFR range overnight as low level moisture moves
northward and causes some areas of fog. DHT and GUY should have cigs
in the MVFR range. Low clouds and fog should then start to clear out
Friday morning and VFR conditions should return. Southerly winds will
increase into the 14 to 20 mph range with occasional higher
gusts...especially at AMA after sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 323 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016/

Discussion...
Extensive stratus remains across much of the area this afternoon
although model soundings are much shallower with low level moisture
than the 12z observed sounding. Radar echos are less extensive too
and this trend should continue through the night. Enough moisture
should linger for stratus to continue and probably lower with the
possibly of some fog later tonight across mainly the southern Texas
Panhandle given already small T/Td spread.

As the upper trough now located over the Panhandles departs, mean
ridging will build in. Low stratus should clear during the morning
with much warmer conditions expected tomorrow. Lingering low-level
moisture should be enough for some cumulus during the afternoon but
significant mid-level height rises should suppress convection. As the
ridge shifts east and moisture moves north into the area isolated
thunderstorms may form Saturday if convergence is significant enough
along a quiescent dryline which should be oriented north to south
across the central Panhandles. We will better refine the locations
most likely to experience isolated convection as the time nears
since it should be within a fairly narrow zone close to the dryline
convergence, possibly further west than currently indicated.
Effective shear should be sufficient (~35 knots) and instability
great enough (MLCAPE 1,000-1,500 J/kg) for a large hail and damaging
wind threat with storms that do form.

Sunday the coverage and magnitude of convection may be greater due
to stronger forcing from approaching wave embedded within
deepening/sprawling western upper low, and stronger instability.
Mesoscale details are fuzzy at this stage but there seems to be
potential for considerable low-level moisture presence, greater than
has been seen so far thus season, contributing to lower LCLs and
greater instability. Thunderstorms that form along a more
synoptically-active dryline should become organized/supercellular
and have greater severe potential with all modes possible.

As the shortwave trough move out Monday southwesterly flow will
continue over the area through mid week probably forcing the
diurnally sharpening dryline to at least the eastern Panhandles if
not further east each afternoon. Instability should be sufficient for
at least isolated thunderstorm development each afternoon and
evening. Better chances may return Thursday as a deeper trough
evolves in the west and moves toward the Panhandles.

BRB

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14



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