Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 172327
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z Issuance...Showers and thunderstorms are heading for KDHT and
KGUY and should lower conditions at those sites shortly. After they
pass through, VFR conditions are expected. KAMA is less likely to see
storms, so have left mention out for now. Fog could be possible in
the morning but confidence is too low attm to put in tafs for all
sites. Will need to monitor trends.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/

SHORT TERM...Tonight...
Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage this afternoon
across northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado as the cold air
aloft in association with a short wave trough over Colorado moves
over and unstable and moist air mass. These showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop into an MCS late this afternoon and this
evening as they move southeast across the panhandles. Still think the
best chance or rain will be across our northeast half closer to the
upper level dynamics. Some of the storms will likely be severe with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. A tornado would also
not be out of the question as shear increases late this afternoon
with the passage of the upper level trough to our north. Showers and
storms will then move east of the panhandles by sunrise on Sunday.

LG

LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
Dry northwest flow aloft returns on Sunday and will provide
downsloping winds which will increase temps back into the 90s. High
pressure will build over the southwest US on Monday, allowing the
warm and dry conditions to continue. By Tuesday, the high pressure
builds in enough to kick the cutoff low back into the northern
jet stream. By Wednesday, southwest flow starts returning to the
Panhandles as an upper level trough digs into the western CONUS.
Models continue to hold off moisture longer and longer. For now have
gone with the trend and left moisture out of the area until Saturday
when the upper level trough passes north of the area.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/16



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