Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260849
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL LEAVE THE PANHANDLES WITHIN NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 90S AREA WIDE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE WEST. LOWS OVERNIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS REMAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW...NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TO ENTER THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD TO ENCOMPASS THE
GREATER PART OF THE AREA BY NOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AGAIN
AND EXIT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT THESE CHANCES ARE LOW.
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER, BUT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES. IN THIS AREA WE COULD SEE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US WITH
THE AXIS OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 90S WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE WE COULD SEE A SHOWER TO TWO SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST
EITHER SUNDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  67  92  66  88 /   5   5  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  96  70  95  67  91 /   0   5  30  50  10
BOISE CITY OK              93  66  89  63  87 /   5  10  40  40   5
BORGER TX                  94  70  94  70  89 /   5   5  20  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              94  67  94  66  89 /   0   5  30  40  10
CANYON TX                  92  66  93  66  89 /   5   5  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               93  67  94  70  91 /   5   0  10  30  20
DALHART TX                 94  65  92  64  89 /   5  10  40  40  10
GUYMON OK                  95  69  92  66  90 /   0  10  40  40   5
HEREFORD TX                92  66  92  67  88 /   5   5  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                95  70  95  70  92 /   0   5  20  50  10
PAMPA TX                   92  67  93  66  88 /   5   5  20  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                94  69  96  71  92 /   5   0  10  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              94  70  98  71  95 /   5   0   5  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14



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