Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161154 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY COULD
BE POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS ANY SITE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO IMPACT
KDHT SO HAVE MENTION OF VCTS FOR LATE AFTERNOON THERE. CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS TO KAMA AND KGUY ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY TSRA AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL SITES
APART FROM GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY. IF ONE
COULD PIN POINT AN AREA WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IT
WOULD PROBABLY BY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
A SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL ALL HELP
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM BEING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND TO BEING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BY MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BELIEVE THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN CWA...CLOSER TO ANY DISTURBANCES IN THE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA AS SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE OVER THIS
AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE
COULD ARGUE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT...
MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW FAR EAST ANY RAIN WILL GET. IT STILL
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN IMPINGE THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO
MOVE BACK TO THE WEST WHICH WOULD SHUNT THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP OUR AREA DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15






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