Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 130439 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1139 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM.  COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO GUST TO 30 TO 40 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.  POSSIBLITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER NEAR FRONT.  BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE ALSO.  BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW AS COLD AIR ARRIVES NEAR THE END
OF THIS FORECAST.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALSO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THESE SAME AREAS AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
LOW TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT ECHOS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH KGUY
REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AND A TRACE OF PRECIP LAST HOUR...DECIDED TO GO
AHEAD AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONLY VERY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...MAYBE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT
BEST. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

KNS

AVIATION.../ISSUED 651 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 10Z-17Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF
BLDU...SO INTRODUCED BLDU AFTER 17Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...BUT DID
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW. NEED
TO WATCH FOR MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AT KDHT AND KGUY
AFTER 18Z.

KNS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014/

TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY

THE MOODY PANHANDLES WILL PROVIDE US WITH SOME WILD WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH POSSIBILITIES FOR:

1. STRONG WINDS, BLOWING DUST, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
2. BLOWING DUST REPLACED WITH BLOWING AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE
NRN PANHANDLES SUN NIGHT WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE BY MON
MORNING.
3. ANOTHER FREEZE, POSSIBLY A HARD ONE MON NIGHT (LOW TO MID 20S?)

TONIGHT...
WILL BE QUITE WARM AND SHOULD BE DRY.

SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL COME CHARGING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS LIKELY AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE...CROSSING THE OK PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AND PROBABLY
CLEARING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
UTILIZED NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH MANY FOLKS SEEING
HIGHS OCCURRING BY NOON AND THEN FALLING OFF. DO YOU THINK WE COULD
GO FROM NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY TO NEAR RECORD COLD IN APRIL WITHOUT
SOME WIND AND DUST? OF COURSE NOT! THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO
50 MPH. WITH A SW KS/SE CO SOURCE REGION...THE COLD FRONT MAY KICK
UP DUST AND BRING IT INTO THE AREA AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING
DUST TO THE FORECAST FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE WINDS
RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF ADVISORY LEVEL HAVE HELD OFF, BUT A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY TMRW AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE DUST WILL GIVE WAY TO SNOW CHANCES IN THE NRN PANHANDLES...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED IN PLACES LIKE BOISE CITY AND POSSIBLY
ALSO DALHART AND GUYMON. THOUGH THE WARM GROUND WILL DEFINITELY BE A
DETERRENT TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS, THERE ARE SEVERAL
SCENARIOS WE SEE IN WHICH ROADS COULD BECOME SNOW COVERED AND ICY,
INCLUDING (POSSIBLY A COMBINATION OF):

1. AS THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOISTENING AND
COOLING...THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL BAND OF SLEET BEFORE A QUICK
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS SUN EVENING. SLEET PELLETS DO A MUCH
BETTER JOB THAN DENDRITES OF RESISTING MELTING AND THEREFORE
ACCUMULATING ON WARMER SFCS. A NICE SLEET BED COULD BE THE PERFECT
BASE FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.

2. AS INITIAL PRECIP FALLS AND MELTS ON CONTACT, STRONG WINDS WILL
ACT ON THE LAYER OF MOISTURE ON THE SURFACE AND SUBSEQUENT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD WELL RESULT IN A THIN LAYER OF ICE ON
WHICH SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE.

3. AS PAST EVENTS HAVE SHOWN...IF INITIAL SNOWS ARE HEAVY AND CAN
LAY DOWN A QUICK BLANKET OVER THE WARM GROUND, SNOW MAY ALSO BE ABLE
TO ACCUMULATE MORE.

4. THE TIME OF THE DAY IS ALSO FAVORABLE...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING BEING REACHED AND NO INSOLATION.

WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WHILE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES WILL BE
FAVORED...WE CAN SEE SCENARIOS IN WHICH ROADS COULD BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND ICY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN PANHANDLES.

A FREEZE IS LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA AND
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH AREA-WIDE MON MORNING TO ACCOUNT.

MONDAY...
WILL BE COLD. IN FACT...RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES WILL PEEL OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST BY
LATE MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WARMING TREND TUE AND WED WILL BE ENDED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
WED NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING MORE STRONG WINDS AND DUST. NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THU...WITH A COOL DAY EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS SEEM VALID ON THU GIVEN A MODEST SHRTWV AND HAVE LEFT THEM
IN TACT. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED FRI AND SAT.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RELINQUISH THIS EVENING...COLDER
WEATHER...HIGHER RH VALUES...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH MONDAY. UNLESS SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WETS THE FUELS SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE BACK OF STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

03/99





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