Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 160544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1244 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Very dry atmosphere will provide VFR conditions through the period.
Gusty SW winds with gusts around 25-30 kts will develop by


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 636 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016/

VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire 00Z TAF period.
With the exception of a few high clouds at KDHT/KGUY during the day
tomorrow, SKC conditions are expected through most, if not the
entire TAF period. Winds will continue to be out of the SW
diminishing to around 10 kts between 06Z and 12Z Sunday. Winds after
12Z Sunday are expected to pick up and be sustained between 15-20 kts
with gusts over 30 kts at times. These gusty winds are expected to
continue throughout until the end of the TAF period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2016/

The main focus the next few days remains the potential for fire
weather concerns (see fire weather section below for those details).
Broad upper level ridge across the Desert Southwest and stretching
into Texas will continue to amplify the next few days. Easily
shattered the high temperature records at Amarillo (88) and
Dalhart(87) today, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s this
afternoon. Hot and dry weather with breezy southwest winds will
continue as the thermal ridge sets up over the western half of the
Panhandles Sunday, and shifts eastward on Monday. High temperature records
the next couple of days are also in jeopardy of being broken. Winds
will increase further on Monday as the leeside trough deepens, with
gusts near 35 to 40 mph are possible across the Western Texas
Panhandle. Chose to err on the high side of any guidance for winds as
a stout pressure gradient and potential for deep mixing exists both

Upper level ridge axis shifts east on Monday as an upper level
trough arrives along the Pacific Northwest coast. Heights will start
to fall as shortwave energy moves across the Intermountain West. By
Monday night, the leeside trough responsible for our very warm and
dry conditions will depart for the Upper Midwest as a surface low. A
dry cold front will push through the Panhandles on Tuesday behind the
low, and high temperatures will likely be somewhere in the 70s, and
slightly cooler on Wednesday. Models still vary greatly with a high
amplitude pattern midweek of ridging in the west and a large trough
carving out the Plains. Have kept the trend for slight chance PoPs
for Thursday though confidence is not high.


Fire weather will continue to be the main weather concern the
next few days.  After some spotty elevated conditions this afternoon
due to lighter winds, western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles will experience critical fire weather conditions on
Sunday. Relative humidity values will have no problem falling into
the teens across all but the far southeastern Texas Panhandle, with
single digit values expected across the western half of the combined
Panhandles. RFTI values of 4 to 6 are possible across a good portion
of the Panhandles as 20 foot winds increase to 18 to 22 mph by early
afternoon with higher gusts. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for
Sunday for the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern/western portions of
the Texas Panhandle. On Monday, the threat shifts eastward and
critical fire weather conditions are possible across most of the
Panhandles. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday afternoon
and evening for most of the area. RFTI values of 4 to 6 will spread
eastward, with higher values possible along the New Mexico/Texas



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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