Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 142116
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
416 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Trend for the forecast continues with numerous periods of
thunderstorm chances, especially the overnight periods. We seem to
be in a perpetual pattern of increased night time precipitation
chances. Otherwise, temperatures look to be right around normal for
this time of year.

Satellite imagery shows a cumulus field located across central parts
of the Texas Panhandle basically aligned just ahead of a surface
trough axis. West of this axis across eastern parts of New Mexico
thunderstorms have already developed. Convective allowing models all
have these storms pushing east into our forecast area late this
afternoon/early evening. Ample instability will be around the
Panhandles this afternoon and evening, but the wind pattern through
the atmosphere doesn`t have much turning/shear with only 20-30 knots
at most for 0-6km shear. Lower level wind speeds are especially
weak. Storms will be very slow movers. Chances are some of these
storms could be strong, but widespread severe weather does not look
likely. Downdraft CAPE from the RAP shows values around 1000-1300
which could lead to some strong wind gusts. Overall, strong wind
gusts appear to be the main threat as models indicate a linear
segment developing and pushing through the Panhandles. Cells are
discrete at the moment across New Mexico. In the upper levels there
is a jet streak over the area with the left exit region over western
parts of the forecast area leading to divergence aloft which should
aid in thunderstorm development/support so rain chances look decent
across portions of the forecast area, especially the Texas
Panhandle. Trend continues to show chances continuing into the
night, with thunderstorms pushing east of the forecast area by
sunrise if dissipation doesn`t occur before then.

For Tuesday, thunderstorm chances continue as well, but again
widespread severe weather does not look likely. Ample CAPE will be
around again but shear parameters are weak. Strong storms will again
be possible tomorrow, and chances are wind will be the main threat
for Tuesday. Through the next couple of days there will be a chance
for moderate to heavy rainfall, especially localized within the
stronger thunderstorms given the higher precipitable water values
forecast. This is of course in addition to the slow storm movement
anticipated the next couple days.

Multiple thunderstorm chances are in the forecast through the
extended. At this time, it does not look like severe weather is too
likely Wednesday, and beyond this its too early to determine the
potential for severe weather.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  92  67  89  66 /  40  30  50  10  20
Beaver OK                  69  98  69  90  66 /  40  30  40  20  10
Boise City OK              62  91  62  84  62 /  40  40  50  10  10
Borger TX                  68  95  69  91  67 /  40  30  50  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              65  95  66  90  65 /  40  30  50  10  10
Canyon TX                  65  91  67  89  66 /  40  30  50  10  10
Clarendon TX               69  92  69  92  70 /  40  30  40  20  20
Dalhart TX                 62  95  64  87  63 /  40  40  50  10  10
Guymon OK                  66  96  67  89  64 /  40  30  40  10  10
Hereford TX                64  92  65  90  64 /  40  30  50  10  10
Lipscomb TX                70  96  70  92  67 /  40  30  40  20  20
Pampa TX                   68  94  68  92  66 /  40  30  40  10  20
Shamrock TX                70  94  71  93  71 /  40  20  30  20  20
Wellington TX              71  94  73  94  73 /  40  20  40  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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