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000
FXUS64 KAMA 151720 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KDHT AND KGUY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AT OR BELOW 15KTS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION -TSRA OR LOW CLOUDS/FOG AT THIS TIME.

FOR KAMA...TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10-16Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...BUT DID INTRODUCE
SCT MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11-16Z WITH THE THOUGHT THAT CONDITIONS
COULD DETERIORATE EVEN WORSE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THAT AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS AFTER 20Z WILL BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF SET.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY 21-03Z...BUT CHANCES OF THESE
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. IF ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS DO NEAR THE TERMINALS...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM AS THE MOIST
LAYER WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT /GENERALLY AOB 12 KTS/. DIRECTION MAY BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AT TIMES...BUT THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS INITIALLY THIS MORNING TO BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MIDDAY...THEN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. KDHT WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

BASIC THEME OF THE GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT INTACT...WITH ONLY A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS KEPT FOR ALL SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WEAK LOW AT 850 MB OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST.  THIS
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF DRYLINE WHILE MAINTAINING
MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PANHANDLES.  STRENGTH OF CAP STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.  BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN HALF.  COULD SEE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN HALF WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE.

HAVE RETAINED LOW THUNDERSTORM POPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND HAVE SPREAD SAME FARTHER WEST DURING THE EVENING AS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO AREA AHEAD
OF AN EXPECTED SHORTWAVE TROF.

HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS NEW ECMWF DEPICTS SHARPENING OF DRYLINE AHEAD OF
REASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF.  NO POPS THEREAFTER.

HAVE MAINTAINED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST...WITH
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ACCENTUATED BY 100 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT EXPECTED FROM HEREFORD TO BORGER.  SATURDAY WILL BE ALMOST
AS HOT...WITH MID- TO UPPER-90S EXPECTED.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SECTIONS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$