Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220515
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for the majority of the 06z TAF cycle. Light
showers will move over the KGUY terminal briefly during the first
hours of this TAF cycle but they will quickly clear the terminal.
After these showers, all terminals will stay clear of convection for
the next 24 hours. Winds will increase during the late morning hours
from the south-southwest and remain up through most of the daylight
hours. After sunset winds will diminish to around 10kt through the
overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
There will be some periods of active weather followed by tranquil
weather conditions as we go into the long term forecast period.
Latest 21/12Z model and probabilistic data continues to show a
deepening upper level trough developing near the Four Corners region
Friday morning helping to develop a lee cyclone east of the central
Rockies. As the main surface low pressure system moves north towards
the western Dakotas, a trailing cold front will work its way through
the region starting early Saturday morning. Latest model trends
continue to decrease QPF amounts as the cold front works its way
through the region. However, behind the cold front, a strip of 500
hPA PVA behind the cold front across eastern CO/NM will help enhance
precipitation across the eastern Panhandles near the sfc-700
baroclinic zone. Latest 12Z numerical data shows the highest chances
of accumulating rainfall across the eastern Panhandles Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday morning.

As we go into early next week, latest 12Z model sounding data shows
strong CAA coming into the region as the main deepening upper level
trough axis shifts east of our region. This will bring H850 temps
ranging from 8C to 11C into the Panhandles. As a result, high
temperatures will range from upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday and
moderating to lower and mid 70s by Tuesday, well below average. Going
towards the end of the forecast period, latest global model guidance
shows a cut off low developing across the central high plains. Upper
level dynamics circling the base of the cut off low well to the north
of the Panhandles shows upper level convergence near our region. In-
conjunction with downsloping 500 hPa flow, weather will be tranquil
as we go through the middle of the work week. Temperature will
moderate to near average as we go into the middle of next week.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/3



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