Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180948
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
448 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.Discussion...
For this morning, tstm complex pushing thru wrn and cntrl OK will
likely send an outflow boundary wwd across at least the ern zones.
Have included slgt chc tstms using 10 pop rule for far ern counties
this morning since this tstm complex has been quite close to the TX
and OK state line at times.

Otherwise, for today, all models maintain the idea of cooler temps
compared to the triple digit heat observed in many locations Friday.
This is mainly due to low level southeast upslope flow across the
region. This is quite reasonable and have followed model guidance.
The low level upslope flow will also serve to increase atmospheric
moisture content and corresponding sfc dewpoint values. Also, there
may be some semblance of a minor upper level shortwave trof pivoting
around the ern side of the upper level ridge such that a couple
numerical weather models such as the ECMWF break out some precipitation
across the ern third of the fcst area. While that scenario is a
distinct possibility, have decided to maintain continuity and keep
pops below mentionable for this pckg as the last couple days have
been fairly well capped as seen on recent KAMA soundings. However,
the outflow boundary from the KS and OK tstm complex will likely move
into parts of our fcst area and could act as a low level focus to
initiate some storms later this afternoon or evening in our eastern
zones if the mid level cap can be breached. Should this occur, then
some sort of pop may become necessary for later this afternoon or
evening in the ern zones. Will defer that consideration to later
shifts.

The upper level ridge of high pressure is progged to reorient itself
wwd late this weekend into early next week. This will result in a bit
cooler temps durg this time period. However, all medium range models
now suggest this upper level ridge of high pressure will begin
translating ewd again and center itself across the srn plains during
the middle to latter part of next week. Should this verify, then a
continuation of generally dry weather along with well above normal
temperatures will persist, all of which is reflected in this fcst
pckg.

Andrade

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                94  67  92  67  93 /   5   5   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  97  68  96  68  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
Boise City OK              93  63  94  63  94 /   5   5   0   0   0
Borger TX                  97  71  94  69  95 /  10   5   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              96  66  94  65  95 /   5   5   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  95  67  92  66  93 /   5   5   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               95  69  93  67  93 /  10   5   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 95  64  95  64  95 /   5   5   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  97  67  97  67  96 /  10   5   0   0   0
Hereford TX                97  66  93  65  93 /   5   5   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                95  68  94  67  94 /  10   5   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   94  67  92  67  93 /  10   5   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                95  69  93  68  93 /  10   5   0   0   0
Wellington TX              96  71  94  69  94 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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