Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261710
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1210 PM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY AT KDHT WITH A
LESSER THREAT AT KAMA BETWEEN 09-15Z. HOWEVER CONDITIONS APPEAR A
LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO WILL LEAVE
MENTION OUT FOR NOW. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...THEY WILL PICK BACK
UP BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING....GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS FORESEEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS A DECENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER MONDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLD
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE TX AND OK
PNHDLS COURTESY OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROF...DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ...AND
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS AREA WERE UTILIZED.
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. INCORPORATED 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDS AND
PUBLIC PRODUCTS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL BE LOSING
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST AREA A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS PROGS
SUGGESTED. SO HAVE SCALED BACK SLGT CHC POPS TO ONLY INCLUDE FAR ERN
COUNTIES TUESDAY.

ALL MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AFFECTING THE
AREA AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
THE CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WED AND WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR THIS PCKG
PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/14




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