Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 150334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIT THE PANHANDLES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOW CLOUDINESS OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA SHOULD SPREAD WEST AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE GUYMON TAF SITE
WITH IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY. THESE LOW CLOUDS
COULD POSSIBLY MAKE IT INTO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY AFTER 22Z WEDNESDAY
TO 01Z THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES
EASTWARD. CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR THE GUYMON TAF SITE BUT WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT THEN
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AGAIN AFTER 00Z TO 01Z
THURSDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PANAHANDLES TONIGHT AND WILL
THEN MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
GUYMON TAF SITE BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND 16Z WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON...AND
AS A RESULT HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...AS THE LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE UPPED SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTING IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AS THE LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS DURING THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.  WITH THE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE...HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND ALSO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS COULD AGAIN
DEVELOP SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS WE GO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO. SOME
AGREEMENT HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW BETWEEN
THE NAM/ECMWF/ AND CMC. THE GFS EJECTS THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AS SUCH...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE BASED OFF A BLEND OF THESE THREE MODELS. THE RESULT
IS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT THE BEST TIMING FOR AREA WIDE PRECIP. BUT AS IT HAS HAPPENED
BEFORE THIS SEASON, DRY AIR LOVES THE PANHANDLES, SO LULLS IN PRECIP
WILL BE COMPLETELY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

AS FOR THE QUESTION OF SEVERE WEATHER, THURSDAY AND SATURDAY SHOW THE
BEST INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (30KT-40KT).
FOR THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FRIDAY THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP. SATURDAY, THE DRYLINE MIXES INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES AND PROVIDE A SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WOULD HAVE ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE
TO WORK WITH AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35KT.

SUNDAY THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLES TO BRING US A BRIEF DRY
SPELL BEFORE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT APPEARS WELL PLACED THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR TOMORROW...HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THOSE SAME AREAS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TEENS AND POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP PERSIST IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

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