Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161047
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
530 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS
PRIMARY ISSUE OF CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST.

CLOSED 500 MB LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 4-CORNERS WILL BE A DOMINATING
INFLUENCE ON PANHANDLES WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DYNAMICS
FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS
SEEN IN KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  SCATTERED TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HAIL TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE...GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR DRY-SLOT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEING STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS.  THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS IN WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY SHARPEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH GOOD
PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

BY SUNDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH DEPARTING CLOSED LOW COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS GULF EXPECTED TO REMAIN OPEN.
03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NOT RECEIVING WETTING RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDIITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                74  47  74  45  74 /  50  50  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  75  52  76  48  75 /  60  70  60  60  30
BOISE CITY OK              69  41  68  41  67 /  40  50  20  20  30
BORGER TX                  75  51  76  48  75 /  50  50  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              77  42  74  42  73 /  40  40  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  75  44  73  43  74 /  50  40  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               75  52  75  50  77 /  60  60  50  30  20
DALHART TX                 71  41  70  40  70 /  40  40  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  72  49  74  43  72 /  50  50  30  40  30
HEREFORD TX                76  40  73  41  74 /  40  30  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                76  54  75  51  76 /  60  70  60  50  30
PAMPA TX                   73  50  74  47  74 /  60  60  40  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                76  55  76  53  77 /  60  70  60  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              77  56  78  54  79 /  60  60  60  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03




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