Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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091
FXUS64 KAMA 132126
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
326 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Overall a pretty uneventful forecast is currently in store across
the Panhandles. "Currently" being the keyword because there is some
uncertainty in model outputs, and therefore a couple changes could
arise for precipitation, but for now trended towards the drier
solution of the models.

In the upper levels, the models are in good agreement until about
Wednesday when they start to diverge from one another. Leading up to
Wednesday our first feature of interest will be a cold front that
will sag down from the Great Lakes region Monday. Behind the front
there will be a chance for precipitation but mainly for our northern
zones. There is a chance for future forecast packages to increase
these chances farther south into southern parts of the Texas
Panhandle. GFS ensemble mean probabilities for precipitation of
0.10" per 12 hours gives basically zero percent Monday. Definitely
leaned towards the drier side here. With the front passing it
wouldn`t be a surprise if chances increased over the next 24 hours.
The atmosphere is saturated in the mid levels and there will be lift
behind the front, but limiting factors include the dry air near the
surface and the dry air aloft. Nevertheless, look for Monday to
perhaps see an increase in precipitation chances, especially across
northern zones. We currently have 15-20% across northern areas of
the forecast area. Our next target of opportunity will be Wednesday
night (maybe as early as late Wednesday afternoon). However, there
is the dry solution of the European compared to the moist GFS
painting a few inches of snow across our forecast area. This is
obviously a concern having two very different solutions. GFS
forecast soundings show a very moist atmosphere with a shallow area
of dry air near the surface. There is a low level jet giving some
jet dynamics to help support rising parcels. We will need to monitor
this day closely due to the fact we could have 3-5 inches of snow if
the GFS is correct...or nothing if the European is correct. Gotta
love the imperfect science of meteorology.

Otherwise, Monday will be breeziest day behind the cold front.
Speeds will range from 15 to 25 mph from the north. Wednesday will
also be on the breezy side with speeds ranging from 15 to 20 mph
from the south. Friday is the next breezy day with speeds from the
south/southwest around 15 to 20 mph. No real fire weather days to
speak of quite yet, but Friday is leaning towards elevated as RH
values drop down to near 20 percent in the afternoon.

Guerrero

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are
expected through Thursday as relative humidity values remain above
necessary thresholds. Elevated fire weather conditions may
develop on Friday across the western one-third of the Panhandles
as southwest winds increase to 15-20 mph with relative humidities
around 20 percent.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                23  54  28  34  12 /   0   0   0  10   0
Beaver OK                  17  51  24  28   8 /   0   0   0  20   0
Boise City OK              23  53  26  30  12 /   0   0   0  20   5
Borger TX                  27  55  29  33  13 /   0   0   0  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              21  56  28  34  14 /   0   0   0  10   5
Canyon TX                  21  56  28  36  13 /   0   0   0  10   0
Clarendon TX               21  54  29  38  14 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dalhart TX                 24  54  28  31  14 /   0   0   0  10   5
Guymon OK                  21  54  26  29  10 /   0   0   0  20   5
Hereford TX                21  56  28  37  14 /   0   0   0  10   0
Lipscomb TX                22  53  26  30  10 /   0   0   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   24  53  27  33  10 /   0   0   0  10   0
Shamrock TX                19  52  27  37  14 /   0   0   0  10   0
Wellington TX              21  52  29  41  16 /   0   0   0  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



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