Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 021742
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECASTS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CHALLENGES
WILL INCLUDE PROSPECTS FOR CONTINUED MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RENEWED FOG
POTENTIAL. MOST FORECAST PROFILES DEPICT CONTINUED BUT THINNING STRATUS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT VEERING/INCREASED DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. THUS CONFIDENCE
IN CIGS IS LOW.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CHURNING
OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM DRAWING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MID- TO
UPPER-LEVELS. THE FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY NEUTRAL OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AROUND A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS PER THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAVE MINIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPS UP A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. THUS FOG
HAS REMAINED OF THE LIGHT VARIETY THUS FAR...WITH VSBYS ABOVE 2
MILES. DENSER FOG HAS BEEN CONFINED FARTHER WEST ACROSS NM...WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW A LITTLE MORE
INFLUENTIAL. MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOWERING VSBYS IN FREEZING FOG
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT LOOKING AS
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY -FZDZ ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
CWA THIS MORNING. IN FACT...CLOVIS HAS BEEN REPORTING -FZDZ
OVERNIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES THIS MORNING FROM
THE FREEZING FOG AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT SPOTTY LIGHT GLAZING
COULD CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS TO GO ALONG WITH THE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST TODAY
AND PRESSURES FALL AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS SOME...HOWEVER THE
WARMING WILL BE MODERATED BY BOTH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND THE
RECYCLING OF SOME COOLER AIR TO OUR SOUTH...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH/COOLER AIR HAS BACKED THROUGH SOUTHEAST NM/FAR SOUTHWEST TX.
WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
RESULTANT WEAK ASCENT HELPING TO MOISTEN MID-LEVELS LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
FOR -FZDZ IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING...AND A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE
COMPARED TO WHAT WE/VE BEEN SEEING LATELY. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY DEVELOPING IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION GIVEN SOUTHWEST WINDS STAYING UP AND LACK OF ANY STRONGER
MOISTURE ADVECTION.

A NICE WARM-UP STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 50 IN THE OK PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WARM-UP WILL BE BRIEF
HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME LIGHT PRECIP STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH JUST HOW MUCH WE/LL
SEE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOTTING PROGGED. THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ARE ALL MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT THAN THE ECMWF...AND THUS HAVE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER QPF OUTPUT. CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD THE LIGHT SIDE...KEEPING
SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /1-3 INCH RANGE/. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT IF
MID-LEVELS DO END UP REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE WE MIGHT BE DEALING
WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN. LOW-LEVELS COOL
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY...SO SHOULD GET SOME ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THIS
LAYER BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
FREEZING PRECIP. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE THEN IN THE OFFING THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST COAST...MAINTAINING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
PLAINS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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