Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192128
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
328 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON DID LITTLE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE.

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BEFORE PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...DUE TO THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CENTERS ON THE
TRACK OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT CAN BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THIS SAID TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN INTO
OLD MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE PASSING OF A 95-100 KT JET STREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE
ON THE INCREASE AND WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLING IN THE AREA...MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG NORTH OF THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. NWP MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...PLACING THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE IN THE BEST POSITION TO SEE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...BUT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA.

SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARMING TREND /WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE
60 DEGREE MARK/ HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER TROUGH
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CAN SEND HIGH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A FAIRLY
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.

LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THANKSGIVING...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REACH IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY.
PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THE MODELS WILL RESOLVE THE TIMING AND
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR WILL GO. IF THE ECMWF WERE TO VERIFY THEN
SHOPPERS ON BLACK FRIDAY WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH COLD AND
POTENTIALLY SNOWY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/05





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