Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260453
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A
FLARE UP OF CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS OVER
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN THE CONVERGENT
NOSE OF A 30+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WANE BY DAWN...AS
NO MAJOR MODELS APPEAR TO DEPICT IT VERY WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW RUN
OF THE TTU WRF WHICH IS CURRENTLY UPDATING APPEARS TO SHOW A GENERAL
UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z. THUS...THE
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/MINOR FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

LINDLEY
&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE JUST EAST
OF KAMA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR 2...BUT THINK THEY WILL STAY JUST FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO PRECLUDE VCTS NECESSITY. MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT
KDHT...WHERE A VCTS WAS INCLUDED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF EACH TAF SITE. A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES FOR ANY
TAF SITE TO BE IMPACTED ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A WEAK STATIONARY
COOL FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT IT WILL LIKELY ALLOW OTHER STORMS
TO DEVELOP AS THEY COLLAPSE AND BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THERE IS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR JUST TO OUR
NORTH NEAR THE FRONT, SO STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA BORDER
MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN ANYWHERE ELSE. LIKE WE`VE SEEN
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, BUT
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG, NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES UP TO 1700 J/KG. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF THIS WILL OCCUR WEST OF A HOOKER TO AMARILLO LINE THROUGH 8 PM.
THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH, DIME SIZE
HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. COVERAGE SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY 7
PM AND ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 11 PM. WITH A
35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT, AND THETA-E ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN WE TYPICALLY
START GETTING SURPRISE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, SO THEREFORE,
WE`VE KEPT POPS IN PLACE ALL NIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE ONGOING
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT ANYTHING THAT IS LINGERING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
11 AM. DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST OF A BOYS RANCH TO
BEAVER LINE. BUOYANCY LOOKS MUCH WEAKER (MLCAPES <800 J/KG) TOMORROW,
SO IT`D BE A LITTLE SURPRISING IF WE SEE A SEVERE STORM. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST STORM COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH BETWEEN
3 PM AND 8 PM. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY 11 PM,
BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES AFTER 12 AM.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SONG AND DANCE AS
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A HEREFORD TO CANADIAN LINE. WITH GREATER
BUOYANCY AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY, A ROGUE SEVERE STORM CAN`T BE RULED
OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO PRESENT THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AS AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH SHOVES A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE TIMING OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE NAM AND GFS REMAIN THE FASTEST SOLUTIONS WITH THE
SPEED OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES, AND THEY WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE ON FRIDAY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE SLOWER GGEM AND ECMWF,
WHICH WE PREFER, LINGER RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE
SLOWER TIMING, THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE NORTH
AND EAST OF A DALHART TO HEREFORD LINE. ON FRIDAY, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF AN ELKHART TO CANYON LINE. STORMS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND PRESENT A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BOTH DAYS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES UP TO 30 KT AND MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES UP TO 2000 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY. THIS COULD ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99





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