Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 190921
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
421 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.Discussion...
An upper level trough is pushing through the area today and bringing
chances for showers and thunderstorms today. Mid level height rises
Friday bring quieter weather as ridging sets in briefly as an upper
level low dives south over the western conus. This low will lift a
bit and slide east through the weekend. As the low approaches the
area, a dry line will set up Saturday and again on Sunday in the
western part of the Panhandles. This will serve as a focus for storms
to initiate. CAPE and shear profiles look decent for storms to become
severe, with Sunday being the better of the two days. Forecast
soundings indicate storms will likely be high based and thus mostly
have a threat of large hail and strong winds. With PWAT values on
Sunday forecast to be well above the 90 percentile, heavy downpours
and the possibility of flash flooding will also be possible.  Surface
winds will also be fairly breezy over the weekend as a LLJ will set
up over the area and should mix down. With models still quibblingover
details of locations of the dryline and position of the upper level
low, more exact details for the weekend will have to wait till closer
to the event.

As the system moves away, precip chances linger in the far eastern
Panhandles Monday. A quick shortwave looks to move through on Tuesday
and bring another slight chance at some precip in the east. Went with
a model blend after Tuesday as models diverge a bit more from run to
run on next week, but the Panhandles may see a few days of quiet
weather.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                62  52  79  57  80 /  40  10   5   5  10
Beaver OK                  64  51  77  57  83 /  40  10  10   5  20
Boise City OK              63  49  79  54  83 /  30   5   5   5  10
Borger TX                  64  54  82  59  84 /  50  10   5   5  10
Boys Ranch TX              66  52  84  56  84 /  40  10   5   5  10
Canyon TX                  64  52  81  57  81 /  50  10   5   5  10
Clarendon TX               61  54  76  58  82 /  40  10  10   5  10
Dalhart TX                 66  49  83  54  82 /  30  10   5   5  10
Guymon OK                  63  51  80  57  84 /  30  10   5   5  10
Hereford TX                66  51  83  56  81 /  50  10   5   5  10
Lipscomb TX                62  52  75  58  81 /  50  10  10   5  20
Pampa TX                   62  52  77  57  80 /  50  10  10   5  10
Shamrock TX                61  53  76  58  82 /  40  10  10   5  10
Wellington TX              63  55  77  59  83 /  50  10  10  10  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11



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