Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 180533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Friday. Winds will be mainly from the southeast to south and possibly
southwest 5 to 15 knots...although some 10 to 20 knot winds will be
possible between 16Z today and 00Z Friday with some higher gusts
mainly at the Amarillo TAF site.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/

00Z TAFs - VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a chance
that some patchy fog could develop across the southern Texas
Panhandle, but confidence is not yet high enough to include at KAMA.
Southeasterly winds will shift southerly and remain around 10 to
12kts once the sun sets. Winds will become southwesterly again
tomorrow afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016/

Rain chances will be on the rise across the Panhandles starting
tomorrow. Moisture will be surging northward in response to a
vorticity lobe across the central portion Texas. Storms which form in
response to this upper level support are anticipated to move
northwestward into the SE Texas Panhandle by midday Thursday. These
storms should diminish as we move into the evening hours. By that
time, a disturbance over SE CO will help to push mountain convection
into the western Oklahoma and northwestern Texas Panhandles Thursday
evening. Early Friday, a pacific front is anticipated to move into
the NW portion of the Panhandles and provide a focus for additional
convection to develop across the Panhandles Friday and Friday
evening. A stronger cold front will dive southward out of Kansas
Friday night into Saturday morning. The highest rain chances will be
with this cold frontal passage. Forecast PWATS of 1.3 to 1.5 inches
show the potential for moderate rainfall with the Friday night
storms. With that being said, an isolated strong storm can not be
ruled out but severe weather is not expected at this time.

Drier post-frontal air will help to lower precip chances across the
area Sunday but weak disturbances in broad northwest flow aloft will
help to keep low end precip chances for portions of the Panhandles.
Flow aloft will transition from NW to zonal Monday before broad
troughing develops over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
allow a series of disturbances to continually move over the
Panhandles to keep precip chances possible each day through


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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