Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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118
FXUS64 KAMA 022338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
538 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS... MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KGUY WHILE VFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT KAMA AND KDHT DUE TO
CLOUD COVER MOVING IN WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
IMPACT ALL TAF SITES...BUT SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW AT KDHT.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH TOMORROW...HOWEVER
IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND GENERAL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL WEAK S/WVS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BASED OF THE THROUGH ACROSS REGION THROUGH WED NIGHT PROVIDING
PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AS SEEN IN H7-H3 Q-VECTOR FIELDS.
MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH THAT TO KEEP
SKIES IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY MOST MODELS AGREE THE LAST AND STRONGEST OF THESE WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS NW ZONES WED NIGHT. WILL
INTRODUCE POPS FOR SLT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS WED NIGHT
BUT LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. YET ANOTHER S/WV
WILL WORK AROUND THE WRN US H5 RIDGE BEFORE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TOWARD WRN TEXAS BY FRI. THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS WRT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS NM AND
WRN TEXAS. THE GEM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...CLOSING OFF THE SYSTEM INTO A
CLOSED LOW IN ERN NM WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE SYSTEM BUT KEEP
IT AN OPEN...POSITIVELY TILTED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. ALL THREE
SHOW GOOD AMOUNTS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...BUT AGAIN LACK MUCH MOISTURE
TO TO MUCH WITH IT. OF COURSE THE GEM WOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO DRAW
MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WOULD BE THE MORE INTERESTING SOLN...ESP
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT ONLY ONE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTED THIS SOLN.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH AGAIN LIMITS POPS TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS MORE FAVORED SW ZONES FOR A RA/SN MIX.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ADDITIONAL S/WVS WILL DIP SE ACROSS THE MID WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BY MONDAY...A
DEEP TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN US WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN
US ALL THE WAY INTO WRN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING RE-ENFORCING FRONTAL
PASSAGES ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY...BUT ALSO CARRIES
THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR INTO THE SE US. BASED ON THIS...EXPECT A
GENERALLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH COOLING TREND LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/11



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