Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 232021
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY STABLE WITH UPSLOPE STRATUS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. TONIGHT THERE ARE STILL TWO AREAS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION, ONE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE. WILL ADJUST TONIGHTS POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON LAST
MINUTE RADAR TRENDS HERE. THE SECOND AREA IS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS MAY PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MID-WEEK. NOT
MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

BY LATE WEEK...THE HIGH DROPS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH ALLOWS
DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY`S ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS DO
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE THAN
THE GFS. IN EITHER CASE...THE BOUNDARY MAY FURTHER FOCUS CONVECTION
FOR THAT TIME FRAME. FOLLOWING THIS ACTIVITY IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                58  84  63  91  67 /  20  10  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  55  87  62  93  68 /   5   5  10   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              57  86  62  94  65 /  20  10  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  60  88  66  93  71 /  10   5  10  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              57  88  63  93  67 /  10  10  10   5   5
CANYON TX                  58  86  63  92  66 /  20  10  10  10   5
CLARENDON TX               60  86  64  91  67 /  20  10  10  20   5
DALHART TX                 57  85  60  93  63 /  10  10  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  56  85  63  95  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                58  85  63  91  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                56  84  63  91  69 /  10   5  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   58  83  62  90  66 /  10   5  10  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                60  85  65  91  68 /  20   5  10  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              62  86  66  93  69 /  20   5  20  20   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

GARCIA



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