Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260443 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE FROM THE FORECAST
ISSUED SIX HOURS AGO.  ONLY IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED TO BE EARLY
MORNING FOG AROUND KDHT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO IFR RANGE.
AFTER DISSIPATION OF FOG...DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY WILL EXPERIENCE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...REMOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FIRST PERIOD.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WEAK
FORCING ALOFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

AVIATION...
ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF A
DIRECT IMPACT AT KAMA...OR ANY OF OUR TERMINALS...TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN FORECASTS.  GENERALLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH NO
CLOUDS BELOW 4000 ANTICIPATED.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BELOW 15 KT
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KDHT AND KAMA...WITH VISIBILITY LOWERING WELL INTO MVFR
RANGE AT KDHT.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR VISIBILITIES TO BE BRIEFLY
REACHED AT KDHT...DUE TO EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILE.  SITUATION WILL
BE MONITORED.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BELOW A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP TODAY HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TOMORROW WILL BE THE START OF A DRYING TREND WHICH WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANTLY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

THE START OF NEXT WEEK COULD SEE THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
PANHANDLES AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES. MODELS ARE IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE EXACT TIMING ON THE START OF PRECIP. HAVE KEPT
THE POPS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY BUT HAVE STARTED THEM ABOUT 12 HOURS
PRIOR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EJECT AROUND THE CLOSED LOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY SO FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS CHANGES WILL BE LIKELY. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WONT HAVE TOO MUCH EFFECT ON THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT SHOULD KNOCK THEM DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DISAGREE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ON
THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT ONCE IT STALLS. THE IF THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE AREA THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE INSERTED BUT IF THE
FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THEN WE SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19





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