Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220547
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR STILL LOOK
POSSIBLE AT KAMA SATURDAY MORNING.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MAINTAIN AT KDHT AND KGUY. KAMA HAS A
GOOD SHOT AT SEEING MVFR OR IFR BASED LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 10Z
SATURDAY THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND POINTS EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE PROGGED
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES PRECIP-WISE. FOR TONIGHT UPPER LIFT WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AIDING IN THE TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WELL
EAST OF THE AREA WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WELL
EAST OF THE AMA CWA. NONETHELESS PROGGED PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
0.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...SO ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES END BY
EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A WARM DAY SATURDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A NOTICEABLE COOL
DOWN SUNDAY. IN ADDITION BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER JET AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CAN BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
IN TIME FOR THE BIG TRAVEL DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE ADVANCES
EASTWARD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION IN THAT THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY
WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY AND MILD
THANKSGIVING.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

09/17




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