Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221009
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
409 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
As the main upper level low pressure system continues to move east
along the Red River, moisture wrapped around the system will continue
to bring showers across the region. With current temperatures still
well above freezing, precipitation types have consistency reflected
just rain across the Panhandles. Latest hi-res model runs are in more
agreement of a gradual clearing across the central and then eastern
Panhandles from now until around 15Z Sunday. Once we go into the
afternoon hours on Sunday, winds will begin to diminish slowly
throughout the day as an upper level ridge axis moves east towards
the Panhandles region. This will bring tranquil weather conditions
through the day on Monday. Latest 22/00Z numerical data by Monday
afternoon shows an established southwesterly flow with H850
temperatures averaging between 11C and 15C. With some good
downsloping off the high terrain to our west, high temperatures will
rebound to lower and perhaps even a few mid 70s for parts of the
southern TX Panhandle by Monday.

As we go into the day on Tuesday, a surface low pressure system will
develop across western Kansas as the embedded jet streak in the main
250 hPa southern jet positioned over our region will lead to
cyclogenesis over parts of the central Plains. As our region is
upstream of the ridge axis during the day on Tuesday with the jet
core right over the Panhandles, latest 00z numerical data shows
strong winds aloft by mid day Tuesday with average H700 winds of 45-60
kts respectively. If enough mixing is established along and behind
the passing cold front Tuesday morning in-conjunction with the steep
height gradient moving east into the Panhandles, strong winds are
definitely possible in reaching wind advisory or even high wind
warning criteria, especially in the far western Panhandles. Will
update the forecast accordingly as we get closer to Tuesday.
Otherwise, in the wake of the cold front, temperatures will drop
throughout the day through the 50s and perhaps into the upper 40s by
Tuesday evening. Going beyond Tuesday, a zonal upper level pattern
will continue to bring tranquil weather conditions with temperatures
below average in the mid to upper 40s.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  34  70  39  56 /   5   0   0   0   5
Beaver OK                  54  25  65  41  53 /  20   0   0   5   5
Boise City OK              50  27  64  34  48 /   5   0   0   5  10
Borger TX                  56  33  68  41  57 /  10   0   0   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              57  32  69  37  55 /   5   0   0   5   5
Canyon TX                  56  33  70  38  55 /   5   0   5   0   5
Clarendon TX               58  33  72  42  60 /  10   0   0   0   5
Dalhart TX                 55  30  67  37  53 /   5   0   0   5   5
Guymon OK                  53  27  65  39  50 /  10   0   0   5  10
Hereford TX                57  35  70  37  56 /   5   0   5   0   5
Lipscomb TX                56  28  69  43  58 /  20   0   5   5   5
Pampa TX                   56  31  71  41  56 /  10   0   0   0   5
Shamrock TX                59  32  72  42  63 /  20   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              61  32  72  40  65 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/29


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