Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260855
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
355 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The majority of the forecast period will have tranquil weather
conditions followed by a return chances of showers and thunderstorms
starting at the end of the work week. Latest 26/00Z model and
probabilistic data shows an upper level ridge developing as its main
axis reaching poleward well into the western Dakotas. With quasi-
stationary upper level low pressure systems well to the northeast and
the southwest of the Panhandles, this should hold steady the ridge
over the Panhandles and lock in tranquil conditions throughout the
Panhandles for the majority of the week. Temperatures will remain
above average and then cool off to near average as we go towards the
end of the work week.

As we go into the weekend, the mean upper level flow will shift back
to southwesterly advecting some moisture in from the eastern Pacific. This
will advect some weak vorticity perturbations into the northern TX
and OK Panhandles downstream of the small trough axis to our west in
the mean 500 hPa flow. As the main upper level ridge continues to
de-amplify well into south Texas by the weekend, a more zonal flow
will develop providing the best diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms across the northern and eastern combined Panhandles
through Sunday. As we go into early next week, more favorable jet
dynamics along a southern stream jet will nose into the region in-
conjunction with a large strip of PVA moving east across the Great
Basin. This will provide better chances of precipitation as we go
into early next week, especially across the central and eastern
Panhandles.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                73  48  80  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  76  48  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              75  48  83  50  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  76  52  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              75  46  82  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  74  46  80  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               74  49  80  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 74  44  82  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  77  47  85  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                73  45  79  48  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                75  47  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   72  48  80  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                74  49  83  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              76  50  82  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1219 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Light north to northeast winds will gradually swing around to the
south and southeast this afternoon at DHT and GUY. The winds will
probably wait until after sunset to switch at AMA. Skies should
remain VFR.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/29


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