Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 032352
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
652 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5
TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
THEN VEERING AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 18Z TO 20Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL HEAD THIS DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. ONE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BREAK DOWN SOME AND BROADEN.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD GO DOWN SOME...BUT NOT TO ZERO...ON THESE DAYS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE BACK FURTHER WEST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN HELP TO SPARK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST UPSLOPE
ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.

A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A
LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THIS FEATURE EACH DAY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/88




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