Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281154
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
654 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs...
MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings will prevail today and tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected, with
thunder expected to begin around 16z.  In the meantime, light
rain showers expected.  Visibility expected to fall into MVFR
range this afternoon and tonight.  Southeast surface winds
expected to gust to around 30 kt today and this evening.  Surface
winds shift to northeast or east as boundary pushes south as a
cold front.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Some much needed moisture is expected across the Panhandles over
the next 24 to 48 hours. The upper low which will bring this
moisture is moving across western New Mexico this morning. This
low will help to spark showers across the western portions of the
Panhandles as early as 6 AM. Latest HRRR shows we could see
thunderstorms initiating generally along and west of a Guymon to
Amarillo line around 9AM. While elevated instability will be
fairly limited this morning, deep layer shear of 60kt could be
sufficient for a few storms to become strong. These storms are
anticipated to move northeastward across the Panhandles as the
upper low moves closer to the Panhandles over the course of the
day. recent model runs have shown the track of the upper low to
be slightly further south than previously indicated. This, as
well as morning convection, will help to keep the warm front
further south that previous thought. The result is that the worst
of the severe potential should stay south of the area this
afternoon/evening. With that being said, there is a window for
strong to severe storms to develop this afternoon as MU CAPE
increases to 1000-2000 J/kg across the southern and eastern Texas
Panhandle. These would be primarily elevated storms and would
present a hail threat. Hi-res CAMS for the evening hours show the
potential for storms to transition to a more linear orientation.
This would keep the risk for a severe wind gust possible.

As we go into the overnight hours, the better dynamic forcing will
be pushed east of the area to bring our severe risk to an end.
Storms will still be possible through the day Wednesday into early
Thursday morning, but instability will be far to weak to warrant
any severe risk. Thursday and Friday continue to look dry as our
next upper level low approaches the Panhandles. There is a chance
on Friday that we could see elevated fire weather across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle, but this threat could easily be
diminished by wetting rains expected Today and Tomorrow.

Over the weekend, the next upper low is anticipated to dive
across the Panhandles. While there remains substantial
differences between medium range models, each model shows precip
getting into at least the northern zones on Saturday. Should the
southern of the solutions verify, it would mean a better coverage
of precip across the area. As of right now, any storms that do
form should remain below severe limits.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  41  58  36  66 /  80  50  50  20   5
Beaver OK                  54  44  58  36  62 /  90  80  80  50  10
Boise City OK              52  36  46  32  64 /  70  80  80  50   5
Borger TX                  58  44  58  38  67 /  80  60  60  30   5
Boys Ranch TX              64  40  56  35  69 /  60  50  60  20   0
Canyon TX                  65  40  60  36  68 /  70  40  50  20   0
Clarendon TX               60  45  66  38  67 /  90  50  40  20   0
Dalhart TX                 60  38  49  32  66 /  60  60  70  30   0
Guymon OK                  53  40  50  34  64 /  90  80  80  50   5
Hereford TX                71  39  59  35  69 /  60  40  50  20   0
Lipscomb TX                55  48  65  39  63 /  90  70  60  40   5
Pampa TX                   57  44  60  36  63 /  90  50  50  30   5
Shamrock TX                60  47  69  40  65 /  90  60  40  20   5
Wellington TX              63  48  71  41  67 /  90  50  30  20   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/14


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