Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 270500 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...HAVE INSERTED VCTS ELEMENT AT KDHT FOR FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THIS FCST CYCLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING. MORE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...COVERAGE...AND LOCATION AS TO WHERE ANY
STORMS MAY FORM...HAVE CONTINUED TO OMIT FROM THIS FCST UNTIL TIME
GETS CLOSER.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OK PNHDL AND NWRN TX PNHDL. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...
COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE...PRECLUDING A MENTION OF THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT AT BOTH KGUY AND KDHT AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
EVENING FOR PSBL AMENDMENTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND EXHIBIT MORE
COVERAGE THAN FCST. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL
SITES LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MORE STORMS MAY FORM LATER
SUNDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE DECIDED TO OMIT FROM THIS FCST CYCLE
UNTIL TIME GETS CLOSER.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS LED TO
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/INCLUDING PALO DURO CANYON/ THROUGH 9 PM GIVEN THIS HEAT. HOWEVER ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS DEVELOPING
FURTHER UPSTREAM MAY GIVE IT A PUSH A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...LARGELY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER. STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS WEAK BUT HIGH
CLOUD BASES CAN RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

LONG TERM...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ WILL KICK OFF A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH MUCH COOLER AND WETTER WX LOOKING
MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND WITH THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
THE NORTHWEST WHILE SURFACE WINDS VEER OUT OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
DIRECTION...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK SUGGESTING INTERMITTENT RAIN
CHANCES ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHEN THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR. MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOMETIME THIS WEEK DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY...DURATION...AND COVERAGE OF THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION.

A WELCOME RETURN TO COOLER CONDITIONS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA FALL AND COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THICK CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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