Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 240131
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
731 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAR THE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE SE
TX PANHANDLE AND ADD A CHANCE OF A NON MEASURABLE FLURRIES LATER
TONIGHT TO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLES. INCREASED LOW TEMPS JUST A BIT IN
MANY PLACES AS CLOUD COVER, WINDS BACKING TO WESTERLY, AND LATEST
GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE
OUT.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN AT SITES THAT THEY HAVE NOT
ALREADY AND BACK TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL TURN WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH VERY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWO UPPER TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXITING
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BAND OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND MODELS
INDICATING DRIER CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z MONDAY. THE LATEST HRRR...THE
TTU-WRF...THE NAM...THE GFS...THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ALL FORECASTING
THE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AFTER 00Z MONDAY. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY A MORE ZONAL
UPPER FLOW BY THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS INTO THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY BUT THEN
SOME MODELS WASH OUT THIS FRONT BY FRIDAY AND SOME MODELS LIFT THE
FRONT BACK TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY. EITHER
WAY...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. IT APPEARS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/17





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