Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
500 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Saturday...with mainly just some high level clouds expected. Winds
will be light and variable...mostly from the south and southwest
but becoming north and northwest at the Dalhart and Guymon TAF
sites...5 to around 10 knots or less.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017/

Fairly quiet and mild weather expected today and Saturday as closed
mid-level low over Permian Basin lifts northeast, allowing light
winds and a mostly clear sky to prevail while brief ridging sets up
tonight and Saturday.

Next shortwave trof crosses the Rockies on Sunday, generating a low-
level response of southerly winds, tapping Gulf moisture.

Dryline expected to sharpen during the day on Sunday, providing a
focus for thunderstorm development.  Have retained pops Sunday and
Sunday evening, with higher chances across eastern zones where
deeper and richer moisture will be positioned and will remain until
eradicated by passage of dryline Sunday afternoon and evening.

Cold air aloft will strengthen mid-level lapse rates as moderately
strong dynamics arrive.  A few thunderstorms could become strong to
marginally severe across eastern sections Sunday afternoon and
evening with hail up to one inch, winds up to 60 MPH and brief heavy

Mild conditions resume Monday through Wednesday as mid-level ridge
prevails in wake of departing shortwave trof or closed low.  Next
system expected to cause dry and windy conditions on Thursday.  03


Although relative humidity values are expected to fall below 20
percent today across the western half of the Panhandles, no elevated
or critical fire weather conditions are expected due to light to
moderate winds.  No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are
expected Saturday through Monday as relative humidities remain above
necessary thresholds.  Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and
Sunday night.  Relative humidities fall below 20 percent on Tuesday
and Wednesday across the western half of the Panhandles, but winds
are expected to remain too light to create elevated or critical fire
weather conditions.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to occur on
Thursday, primarily across the western three-fourths of the
Panhandles as dry southwest winds increase.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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