Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 140430
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1130 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Have updated to lower pops further and to cancel Severe
Thunderstorm Watch from remaining zones.  Updated text products
will be issued shortly.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 940 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

UPDATE...
Have updated graphical forecasts, lowering pops across northern
sections and removing Oklahoma Panhandle as well as northern half
of Texas Panhandle from Severe Thunderstorm Watch.  Updated text
products being issued at this time.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 653 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

AVIATION...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms moving SE, with direct impacts
expected at DHT and GUY.  Severe gusts at or above 50 kt will be
possible for the next few hours owing to strong instability in
sufficiently sheared environment.  IFR ceilings expected to
develop after midnight at AMA and DHT, with less of a threat at
GUY, where greater westerly component to low-level winds expected.
Return to VFR conditions expected by early afternoon at all
terminals.  Slight chance of thunder at all terminals on Monday.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 228 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The flow in the mid and upper levels will become a little more
northwesterly in the wake of a short wave trough moving through the
western Great Lakes this afternoon. This northwest flow will provide
increased directional shear as southerly winds on the surface veer
around to the northwest in the mid levels. Also a mid level
disturbance will move southeast in the northwest flow aloft and this
should help to get organized showers and thunderstorms going off of
the Colorado and New Mexico mountains. This activity is expected to
develop into and MCS which is then expected to move southeast across
the panhandles tonight. At this point, it looks like the western
panhandles will have the best chance of rain given the track of the
upper level disturbance. Some storms may become severe with large
hail and damaging winds the main threat. Localized flooding will
also be possible as these storms may be efficient rain producers
given all of the low level moisture.  The 12z sounding from AMA
showed an inversion near 500 MB with a well mixed layer above
that. But, it looks like this layer will get eroded as the upper
level disturbance approaches this evening.

As the flow aloft transitions from northwest to west and southwest
Monday and Tuesday, our rain chances decrease some. Then our area
may actually have a couple of dry days before the flow becomes
northwesterly again by Friday night into next weekend. This will
allow mountain convection to move this way once again.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonal for much of this week after
Monday.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/16


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