Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 010933
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  69  89  66  85 /   5  20  30  40  40
BEAVER OK                 100  70  90  67  89 /  20  20  40  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              97  66  88  63  86 /  20  30  40  40  30
BORGER TX                  98  72  92  68  87 /  10  20  30  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              99  70  92  66  88 /  10  20  30  40  40
CANYON TX                  94  67  91  65  85 /   5  20  30  40  40
CLARENDON TX               94  69  90  68  87 /   5  20  20  40  30
DALHART TX                 99  67  91  64  87 /  20  30  30  40  40
GUYMON OK                 100  69  90  66  88 /  20  20  40  40  30
HEREFORD TX                93  67  91  66  86 /   5  20  30  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                98  71  90  67  88 /  10  20  40  40  30
PAMPA TX                   94  69  89  66  87 /   5  20  30  40  30
SHAMROCK TX                95  70  91  68  88 /   5  20  20  40  30
WELLINGTON TX              96  72  92  70  90 /   5  20  20  40  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/08




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