Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

MVFR ceilings are slowly lifting at KAMA as we near the start of the
00Z TAF cycle. As such, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the next 24 hours. Surface winds will continue to veer around the
dial towards a south to southeast direction through the evening
hours. Tomorrow surface winds will increase into the 10 to 15kt range
from a more southerly direction and persist to the end of this TAF

Forecast models show the potential for mountain convection to move
near the western Panhandles tomorrow afternoon, but do not expect
any of this convection to impact the terminals.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 257 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

Tranquil weather will be across the region as we start the near term
forecast period with a more amplified sinusoidal upper level pattern
as we go into the long term forecast period with some more chances of
thunderstorms. As we go through the rest of the weekend, high
pressure will remain in control over the region. Southwest winds will
increase as we go into Sunday, especially across the western
Panhandles with an isolated chance of thunderstorms as well across
the western areas. Otherwise temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
by the end of the weekend.

As we go into next week, a trough will begin to develop across the
southwestern US developing a more sinusoidal flow across the central
and western CONUS. With lowering 500 hPa moving into the region along with
500 hPa temps between -7c to -9c and diurnal heating, 20/12Z model
and probabilistic data are in good agreement of diurnal convection
throughout the week with slight POPS reflected in the forecast.
Global models begin to diverge as we go into the latter half of the
work week as a cold front will begin to work south from the central
Plains. Timing is not in agreement with the global models with
ranges between Thursday morning and Thursday evening with the cold
front moving south across the Panhandles. This will be our best
chance of precipitation going into next week. High temperatures will
be near average before the front arrives and then drop below average
by the end of the week in the wake of the cold front.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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