Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252205
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
405 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue over the area for the next day. An upper
level trough will dig down from the Pacific Northwest bringing cooler
air. Southwest flow ahead of the system will draw up moisture from
the Pacific. This moisture looks to be elevated, and with the
cold front working towards the area, there could be some forcing and
instability to generate some early day showers and or thunderstorms.
Dry air intrusion and a strong low level jet will make for good wind
mixing potential Sunday afternoon. Right now winds are forecast to be
sustained 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. (See Fire Weather
Discussion)

As the low associated with the trough lifts to the central plain and
up into the Dakotas, it will become a broad longwave trough, and
colder air will continue to spill down across the Rockies on Monday
and Tuesday. This will result in freezing temperatures for the OK
Panhandle and in the mid to upper 30s for the TX Panhandle on Monday
night. Afternoon highs on Tuesday are only expected to be in the mid
40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Along this northwest flow Monday night
there looks to be a shortwave that may become a brief cutoff low over
the Albuquerque area. Models have been struggling with this system for
days. This system has been in question as to whether or not it could
provide snow to the area, and just how much. As for now we have a
slight chance of snow showers for the western zones on Tuesday
morning before 11 am then changing to a rain snow mix thereafter. The
accumulation potential is very minimal as we only have indicated 0.1"
for the areas that might see snow. This uncertainty remains high.

As Tuesdays shortwave trough axis exits to the east by Wednesday
morning, a more zonal, but still cool flow will be in place. Overall,
the temperatures look to be nearly carbon copies of each other
Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the mid 40s north to mid 50s
south.

Thursday night into next weekend...This will be the system to watch.
While uncertainty is still high, the confidence that some sort of
reasonably cold air mass that could limit our highs to the 30s and
lower 40s across the CWA on Saturday is starting to increase. As the
longwave trough pulls to the northeast over the Great Lakes and then
to northeast Canada, another open trough is forecast to move down the
Rockies and impact the area late Friday night into Saturday. The
trough then becomes a cut-off low from the previously mentioned zonal
flow. Right now the biggest issue is that models can`t decide is where
to position this low. Models have been back and forth between over
the four corners, to the Baja Peninsula, to the Tuscon area. These
positions are crucial to if we see any moisture and if the cold air
remains in place for snow (possibly significant) to form or if we
just see rain or a rain/snow mix. So we will continue to monitor this
system over the next week.

Weber

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated Fire Weather conditions expected on Sunday. Dry air behind a
frontal system on Sunday will drop dewpoints into the low 20s to
teens, which could result in RH values in the 15-20 percent. The main
concern is that there will be strong winds associated with these low
RH values. This will produce elevated to possibly critical Fire
Weather conditions. The elevated timing is only expected to be from
the 12pm-6pm time with possible critical conditions from 1pm-5pm.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  34  65  46  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
Beaver OK                  58  29  66  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  30
Boise City OK              56  30  64  42  62 /   0   0   0   0  20
Borger TX                  58  35  66  50  69 /   0   0   0   0  30
Boys Ranch TX              57  29  66  45  66 /   0   0   0   0  30
Canyon TX                  57  32  65  46  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
Clarendon TX               59  34  65  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dalhart TX                 57  30  66  43  63 /   0   0   0   0  30
Guymon OK                  59  31  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Hereford TX                58  32  64  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
Lipscomb TX                59  31  66  48  70 /   0   0   0   0  30
Pampa TX                   58  34  65  47  69 /   0   0   0   0  30
Shamrock TX                59  31  64  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  30
Wellington TX              60  33  64  47  73 /   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89



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