Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

000
FXUS64 KAMA 192223
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
523 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Focus for this forecast package will be on thunderstorm chances
tonight (small change for NE parts of the Panhandles) and then
Thursday night through Friday night. Breezy to windy conditions
will be realized on Friday behind a strong cold front. Outside of
this the only other impactful note weather-wise is the potential
for frost Saturday night as we have high pressure, clear skies and
light winds in place for maximum radiational cooling. Finer
details below.

For tonight, as the surface low exits east of the Panhandles, there
is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms across northeastern
parts of the Panhandles tonight. Anything that does occur should
remain below severe criteria as certain variables are lacking across
our forecast area. Instability (CAPE) values are greater across
Kansas and Oklahoma and there is a strong cap in place over our
area. Best chance for showers/thunderstorms will be between 3am
and 7am across far northeastern parts of the Panhandles. Again,
severe weather is not expected.

With around 500-1000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE and decent bulk
shear around 50-65 knots (in the higher CAPE value areas), there
is a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday night via accent through
isentropic lift. Surface triggering mechanism will not be present
due to the fact the surface features will be to the southeast.
Storms will be elevated in nature and the main threat should be
hail and wind. We should have a little break Friday morning
between the Thursday night convection and the convection
Friday/Friday night as a surface low is forecast to pass over the
Panhandles. Stronger storms Friday/Friday night should be east of
the forecast area. We could have a strong to marginally severe
storm across our east, but currently severe weather looks more
favorable east of our area, or in other words across western
parts Oklahoma.

Also to note as a result of the passing surface low on Friday is
the cold front that follows. Behind this cold front Friday
afternoon/evening there will be good mixing, a strong pressure
gradient near the front, and strong height rises (10-15mb/6hrs)
Friday night. Overall, there is a good chance we may need some
sort of wind headline to highlight this threat for strong winds
Friday/Friday night.

Saturday night high pressure will settle in over the area, and wind
speeds will be light and variable with mostly clear skies. These
conditions will maximize radiational cooling overnight and create
conditions favorable for frost formation. We are forecast to have
lows in the mid to lower 30s across a majority of the forecast
area. Since we are getting into the growing season, any sensitive
vegetation may be susceptible to frost if these conditions come
to fruition.

For the remainder of the afternoon/early evening there will be an
elevated to possibly critical fire weather risk as dry conditions
will remain in place with breezy conditions. Look for conditions
to improve soon, or close to sunset as relative humidity values
increase and wind speeds decrease.

Guerrero

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                89  52  72  53  73 /   0   0   5  50  20
Beaver OK                  96  54  73  50  54 /   0  20   5  60  60
Boise City OK              85  48  67  47  61 /   0   0   5  40  40
Borger TX                  93  55  74  53  71 /   0   0   5  60  30
Boys Ranch TX              93  53  73  52  74 /   0   0   5  40  20
Canyon TX                  90  52  72  53  76 /   0   0  10  40  10
Clarendon TX               91  55  72  54  76 /   0   0  10  50  20
Dalhart TX                 91  49  71  48  68 /   0   0   5  40  20
Guymon OK                  92  51  71  50  59 /   0   0   5  50  50
Hereford TX                91  52  74  52  77 /   0   0  10  30   5
Lipscomb TX                89  56  73  52  61 /   0  20   5  70  50
Pampa TX                   93  53  72  52  70 /   0   0   5  60  30
Shamrock TX                87  56  73  54  74 /   0   0  10  70  40
Wellington TX              88  58  73  57  78 /   0   0  10  60  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.