Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 172333 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ONLY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.  SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST COULD CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT AIRMASS WILL
LIKELY BE TOO CAPPED FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST TIME FRAME...AS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST ON SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA STAYS WELL
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE DRY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                44  66  47  73  51 /   0  10   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  45  69  47  82  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  67  45  77  48 /   0   5   5   5  10
BORGER TX                  48  68  51  80  55 /   0  10   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              45  68  48  76  50 /   0  10   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  43  69  47  74  50 /   0  20   5  10  10
CLARENDON TX               47  67  49  73  53 /   0  10   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 42  68  43  74  46 /   0  10   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  43  67  45  80  49 /   0   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                43  68  45  73  50 /   0  20  10  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                44  68  46  78  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   44  64  48  74  52 /   0   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                45  69  46  74  53 /   0   0   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              47  71  48  76  54 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/19




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