Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 251129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
529 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017


For the 12Z TAFs:
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. It
will be breezy this afternoon. There is also a chance for some
ceilings around 10K feet later this evening. Overall low impacts.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

Dry northwesterly to westerly upper flow today and tonight with
short wave trough pushing across the Panhandles Sunday. Surface
low to develop to the lee of the southern Rockies today which will
usher in a surface boundary across the forecast area Sunday. The
surface trough will result in light and variable winds 5 to 15 mph
or less although winds may shift to the northwest and north
briefly after the surface trough moves through. Winds will likely
return back to the southwest and west early next week as another
surface low develop to the lee of the central Rockies and deepens
Monday into Tuesday. Cold front over the central Plains states
Tuesday should push south and may move into the Oklahoma Panhandle
by Tuesday afternoon or evening. The west and southwest winds
ahead of the cold front and east of the surface low and surface
trough across the lee of the central and southern Rockies will
increase to around 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts early next week.

Cold front to move through the forecast area Tuesday night into
early Wednesday resulting in much cooler conditions around the
middle of next week. Some light rain or light snow may follow the
passage of the cold front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
across mainly the northern and eastern portions of the Panhandles
as a strong upper trough tracks south and east out of the Rockies
and across the Plains states. Drier and moderating conditions
expected during the latter half of next week.


Southwest 20 foot winds today across the extreme western Texas
Panhandle are expected to reach near 15 mph with possible gusts to
near 25 mph by mid to late this afternoon. With minimum afternoon
relative humidities of 15 to around 20 percent expected today,
decided to go with a Fire Danger Statement across the extreme
western Texas Panhandle. The wind speeds will be close and should
be a very marginal elevated fire weather situation, however
decided just to issue for elevated with relative humidities at or
below 20 percent.

The 20 foot winds on Sunday will be just too light for any
elevated or critical fire weather conditions to develop despite
minimum afternoon humidities continuing to be near 15 to 20

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop
Monday and Tuesday as a surface low develops to the lee of the
central Rockies early next week ahead of a cold front which should
push south into the Oklahoma Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon or
evening. West to southwest 20 foot winds will likely increase to
around 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts by Tuesday afternoon with
minimum afternoon humidities of around 10 to 20 percent Monday and
15 to 20 percent Tuesday. Winds will shift to the north and
northeast across the Oklahoma Panhandle early Tuesday afternoon
and then across the northeastern portions of the Texas Panhandle
by mid to late Tuesday afternoon.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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