Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 011734 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT CAUSING THE
WIND TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY COME DOWN TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A SFC TROF OR WEAK DRYLINE FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AND GUSTY DURG THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET THIS
EVENING...THEN BECOME NNW TO N LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES SWD. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS /DETAILS IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/ AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE
FORM OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS...AND A LEESIDE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP /AS IT IS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS/. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR
EAST..BUT HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS METEOROLOGICAL REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY...THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE A BIT LOWER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND REDUCE CONCERNS FOR
A CAP...AND ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
BE COOLER BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND BEST FORCING WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ON FRIDAY...AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ELSENHEIMER

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 8 TO 15 PERCENT...AND TEMPERATURES OF 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE 20FT WINDS...STILL COULD BE MARGINAL WITH THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES. AT
ANY RATE...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND EXPECT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
MEET THE CRITERIA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THIS AREA DOES
NOT REACH THE FORECASTED HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THIS AREA
COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY...AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR MEETING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/08





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