Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 021857 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES ARE MAIN CONCERN ATTM. SCT TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND COULD IMPACT TAF SITES MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXACT TIMING IS DIFFICULT ABUT PROVIDED BEST CHC IN PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW WITHOUT IMPACTING FLIGHT LEVELS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. MAY
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SEEING SOME LOW STRATUS WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ESP AT DHT TONIGHT GIVEN A BIT MORE OF A SERLY WIND
PROFILE...BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT IN TAFS AND
OPTED TO SHOW A SCT IFR DECK INSTEAD TO CONVEY THE POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. BOTH KGUY AND KDHT HAVE BEEN CONVECTION FREE
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT KAMA IS IN AN AREA WHERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE
PAST HOUR. THE CHANCE WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER STORMS AT KAMA ROUGHLY
UNTIL 15Z. THEN WE SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE DAY. DURING THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTER 00Z THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 CHANCE FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03




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