Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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513
FXUS64 KAMA 211133
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
533 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

Low cloudiness across southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas will
need to be monitored for MVFR to IFR conditions impacting the
Guymon TAF site between around 15Z and 22Z today and possibly also
the Dalhart TAF site. Confidence is low at this time for the
Dalhart TAF site with VFR conditions expected at the Dalhart and
Amarillo TAF sites through 12Z Monday. Southwest and west winds 10
to 20 knots will increase to around 25 to 35 knots and 30 to 40
knots with gusts near 45 to 55 knots at all three TAF sites after
16Z to 20Z today.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 432 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Closed mid-level low pressure center crosses northern part of
forecast area this afternoon, producing strong winds and elevated
to critical fire weather conditions.  Pacific cold front arrives
this morning, with strong winds commencing by noon.  High wind
warning has been issued for westernmost counties plus Potter and
Randall counties of the south-central Texas Panhandle for this
afternoon through this evening.  A wind advisory for adjacent
Texas Panhandle counties will be in effect this afternoon.
Canadian cold front arrives late this afternoon shifting winds to
northwest.  A separate wind advisory will be in effect this
evening and overnight for strong winds across the northeast Texas
Panhandle and the eastern two-thirds of the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Pops for light snow retained this afternoon and evening across
northern and northwest sections.  Accumulations may approach one
inch in the northwest half of Cimarron County (westernmost of the
Oklahoma Panhandle), with less than one-half inch elsewhere.

Brisk north winds continue on Monday, especially across eastern
sections, as strong low departs to the northeast.  In spite of
strong winds and sub-freezing temperatures tonight, wind chill
values are not expected to fall into advisory or warning
thresholds.

Abundant sunshine on Monday allows high temperatures to rebound to
around normal.  Similar or slightly cooler conditions expected on
Tuesday as shortwave trof allows a secondary cool surge into
northern sections.

Warming trend expected Wednesday through Friday as mid-level flow
turns zonal and then southwest.  Shortwave trof Friday night
drives cold front into Panhandles, with cooler conditions on
Saturday.  No pops in forecast Monday through Saturday.  03

Cockrell

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop by noon and to
continue through 8 PM for the eastern and south-central Texas Panhandle.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the southwest and
central Texas Panhandle, as well as the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Monday across all of
the Texas Panhandle and the western two-thirds of the Oklahoma
Panhandle.  Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are
expected area-wide on Thursday as a deepening surface low pressure
trof develops over eastern New Mexico.  Elevated fire weather
conditions are expected on Friday across the western two-thirds of
the Panhandles as another Pacific cold front passes.  03

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Donley...Gray...Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...
     Wheeler.

     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM CST Monday for the
     following zones: Hansford...Lipscomb...Ochiltree.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 1 AM CST Monday for the
     following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Donley...Gray...
     Moore...Sherman.

OK...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM CST Monday for the
     following zones: Beaver...Texas.

     High Wind Warning from noon today to 1 AM CST Monday for the
     following zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

11/3



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