Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 260529

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

For the 06z TAFs...
Thunderstorms moving south at this time, although new development
is occurring over AMA.  Late night and early morning MVFR
ceilings expected at all terminals.  Once again, timing
uncertainties will likely lead to amendments.  Scattered
afternoon thunderstorms expected on Tuesday near AMA and DHT.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 641 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

For the 00z TAFs...
Thunderstorms over northern parts of forecast area will likely
pose a near-term threat at GUY, with DHT being threatened
slightly later.  Less certainty for timing for AMA, but
thunderstorms are likely this evening and tonight.  MVFR ceilings
expected to develop at all terminals before sunrise, probably
lasting much of the morning.  Amendments likely to be forthcoming
due to timing uncertainties.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 410 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

Not much for changes in this forecast package as the forecast is
still pretty well on track. Temps this afternoon have been
slightly warmer than yesterday with the higher temps in the west
today and cooler on the eastern side of the CWA due to clouds
hanging on longer there. The break in clouds has allowed for more
daytime heating and thus increasing the instability today. CAMs
are still disagreeing slightly on the extent of coverage for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through the night. Feel
there is a decent chance for storms to develop and move across the
majority of the area overnight. Due to the increased instability
and better shear today, storms may become stronger than what we
saw yesterday; some of the storms on the western half of the area
may become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the
primary threats. We are already seeing initiation in Sherman and
Moore and expect more storms to fire up within the area or move in
from the mountains in New Mexico.

Monday will look somewhat similar to today with some of the cloud
cover lingering in the morning hours, followed by a break out of
clouds and then storms again in the late afternoon to evening.
These storms may also become strong to severe depending on how
much clouds break out, allowing for more instability to be
generated. Tuesday looks to see a warm up as winds turn more
southwesterly in the low levels and allow for downsloping winds.
As the upper level ridge moves across the central Plains, this
will be the last day for northwest flow aloft and thus the final
day for storm chances to come in from the mountains. Mid week will
see zonal flow aloft as a trough tries to move south from Canada.
This will lead to even more downsloping and warmer temps. The end
of the week will see a return of high pressure building up in the
desert southwest. This leads to a return of precip chances for the



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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