Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 301859
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  94  69  88  66 /   0  10  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  71  98  70  91  67 /   0  20  10  30  40
BOISE CITY OK              67  94  65  88  63 /   0  20  30  30  40
BORGER TX                  72  98  72  92  69 /   0  10  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              67  97  69  91  66 /   0  10  30  30  40
CANYON TX                  66  93  68  90  65 /   0   5  30  30  30
CLARENDON TX               69  94  70  90  69 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALHART TX                 67  96  67  90  64 /   0  20  30  30  40
GUYMON OK                  70  97  70  91  66 /   0  20  20  30  40
HEREFORD TX                66  93  68  90  66 /   0   5  30  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                71  98  71  91  67 /   0  10  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   68  94  70  90  66 /   0  10  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  96  71  91  68 /   0   5  20  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  95  73  92  71 /   0   5  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/10




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