Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Some
residual showers at KGUY will diminish as we go further into the
morning hours. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest over 20
kts at times, which will diminish to sustained winds of 10-15 kts
after 06Z Sunday. An isolated shower or storm for KAMA is
possible this afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in
the TAF at this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017/

Southwest flow aloft will continue for the duration of the
forecast, as mid-level trof persists, supported by a succession of
jet streaks arriving from the northeast Pacific.  This flow will
tap moisture from the Pacific west of Mexico, particularly in
light of Tropical Storm Norma, which is progged to drift north,
before its remnants become absorbed into the base of the trof.
All of this spells continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms for most periods of the forecast, with the southeast
half of the forecast area being favored, due to the expected
moisture trajectory.

In the near term, nocturnal thunderstorms showing signs of
dissipating at this time as low-level westerly flow behind outflow
boundary advances eastward.  Boundary expected to stall across
eastern sections this afternoon, with chances for more
thunderstorms continuing in the east through tonight.  Cold front
makes an intrusion into northern sections on Saturday and Sunday,
with slightly cooler conditions, especially in the northwest.
Models suggest that a stronger cold front arrives Tuesday night
and Wednesday, with drier and more stable air behind it, briefly
putting a damper on rain chances Tuesday night through Wednesday


Southwest and south winds are expected today through Saturday as a
surface trof of low pressure remains over the area.  Relative
humidity will fall to around 20 percent across northwest sections
of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today, but no
elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected due to
moist fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop on
Tuesday across northwest sections as dry southwest winds resume.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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