Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
246 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the southern Plains
keeping large scale subsidence and dry air in place. Water vapor
imagery does show broad cyclonic flow over the Pac NW with a
strengthening jet on the upstream side. This jet will help amplify
the flow some over the next few days leading to a weak disturbance
crossing the Plains on Tuesday.

For today through Monday...well above average temperatures are
expected with generally low to mid 80s with the warmest day
expected today. A developing lee trough will continue to increase
winds from the southwest today leading to dry surface conditions
through the late afternoon hours. A more pronounced lee surface
low is expected to develop tonight in response to a subtle mid-
level trough crossing the area through Sunday. This surface low
will sink southward and weaken over the TX Panhandle Sunday
leading to reduced wind speeds across the area as they switch to a
more northerly direction. This low should also help limit max
temperatures by a couple degrees compared to Saturday. On Monday
winds will become more southeasterly as a transient shortwave
approaches the Rockies from the west. This will lead to some low
level moisture advection across the eastern zones with max
temperatures mainly in the high 70s and low 80s across the
Panhandles. Models are showing a fog signal Monday morning with
low dew point depressions and light surface winds. Will leave out
of grids for now but will be something to watch especially across
the northeast half of CWA.

As the shortwave crosses the Plains Tuesday with a weak surface
front trailing close behind...most areas will stay dry but it
looks like there may be just enough moisture along the far eastern
zones to bring a slight chance of precipitation Tuesday evening.
The model soundings do show some instability developing with
modest height falls ahead of the shortwave which may lead to a few
thunderstorms...any storm will most likely be elevated due to
robust capping inversion. upper divergence progged to
stay north of Panhandles with only weak sfc front, so looks like
forcing will be fairly limited overall.

After passage of shortwave...high pressure starts building back
into the southern Plains leading to more dry weather. Temperatures
will above average but not expecting to break any records with
highs in the 70s and low 80s through the rest of the week.


With the aforementioned lee low moving across the Panhandles
tomorrow...not expecting critical or elevated fire weather
conditions as winds are expected to be below criteria. RH should
drop into the 15 to 20 percent range during the afternoon across
western Panhandles, but should be last day of sub 20 percent
readings for at least a few days with winds also staying below
criteria into middle of next week.


Amarillo TX                85  51  85  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  87  45  84  43  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              86  46  79  39  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  87  54  86  48  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              90  46  88  41  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  84  51  87  46  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               82  53  86  50  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 86  44  85  42  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  87  47  82  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                84  50  87  45  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                85  51  85  47  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   84  53  86  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                80  51  85  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              82  52  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

For 18Z TAFS...Continued VFR through the 18z TAF period. Southwest
winds this afternoon will be around 15 kts with gusts to just over
20. The winds will lighten around sunset 00z and become more
southerly. An approaching surface trough will force winds to turn to
the west and northwest at the TAF sites after 10z Sunday morning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Winds
will increase throughout the morning hours and peak in the afternoon
hours out of the south-southwest between 15-20 kts with gusts over 20
kts possible. As we go past 00Z Sunday, winds will shift back to the
south sustained around 10-15 kts.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

An upper level ridge will hold on strong across the central and
southern Rockies and adjacent plains through Monday. The ridge will
then shift eastward briefly to allow an upper level short wave
trough to move across the central Rockies and central High Plains on
Tuesday. As this short wave trough passes by to our north, it may
have just enough lift and moisture to work with to provide the
eastern panhandles with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night. The latest runs of the models seem to be backing off
on the chances of rain for our area, so we may need to remove the
pops in the future.

An upper level ridge will then build back across the high plains for
the rest of the forecast, keeping our weather dry.

Gusty southwest winds will be the rule across much of the panhandles
today which will help to send high temperatures into the 80s and
lower 90s. A surface trough will move through the panhandles on
Sunday switching the winds around to the north and northeast, but
they will be much lighter than today. Highs will still be generally
in the 80s.

A very slight cool down will be possible on Wednesday behind the
departing short wave trough, but for the most part high temperatures
will be in the 80s through the rest of the forecast.

South and southwest 20 foot winds will be in the 15 to 20 mph range
today across much of the panhandles. Lowest afternoon relative
humidity values will drop to below 20 percent generally west of a
Beaver, Oklahoma to Clarendon, Texas line. We will issue a fire
danger statement for all but the eastern Texas Panhandle for today.
No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected through
early next week after today.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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