Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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587
FXUS64 KAMA 300307 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1007 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED OUT OF THE REGION AND ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN FAR NW CORNER AT
BEST FOR REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NRN AREAS MAY STAY IN STRATUS MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...BUT SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CLEARING. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
TO DRIFT BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUES TO BE BIGGEST QUESTION
MARK...BUT GENERALLY THINKING THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN BASED ON SOME OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...IE THE NARRE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT AND JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS.

GITTINGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...COOL AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS REGION...BUT SOME MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
BELOW THE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WET GROUNDS...BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TO COUNTER THIS AND DO
NOT SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS KGUY. NNW FLOW
IS ALSO SOMEWHAT MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING WIND AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR
LOW STRATUS. GIVEN THIS...MADE CHANGES ACCORDINGLY TO TAFS TO ONLY
KEEP MVFR/IFR FORECAST FOR KGUY...BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NEW
MEXICO ARE STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LIGHT
DRIZZLY RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOME OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING SOME BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE 20S AND LOW 30S. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL BREAK OUT OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SEE A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN
SLIDES EAST AND BRINGS THE CLOUDS BACK FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND SPREADING EASTWARD SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...CHANCES FOR PRECIP END ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN ABOUT
HOW THE LOW MOVES AWAY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO PINCH OFF SOME ENERGY FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND TURN IT INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ON TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN TRIES THIS SCENARIO
WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL OTHER MODELS PUSHING THE LOW AWAY...HAVE
DETERMINED FOR NOW TO USE A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US...MODELS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO THE AREA FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN HALF. WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORWARD
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS RIDGING FILLS IN OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AND THE
80S RETURN BY WEEKS END AFTER THE COOL BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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