Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252323
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO START
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH
KGUY AND KDHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DELAYED CONVECTIVE PROGRESSION.
RECENT DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTICED NEAR KGUY AS A SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WHICH ARCS ROUGHLY FROM ELKHART TO JUST EAST OF DALHART
TO VEGA...HAS BEGUN A SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT. THIS WILL LIKELY HELP
INITIATE STORMS NEAR BOTH KDHT AND KGUY AS THE EVENING GOES ON. THERE
IS A CHANCE CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH KDHT AND KGUY
UNTIL THE 06Z MARK BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS
EVENING. KAMA IS LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BEST FORCING
FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THAT TERMINAL TONIGHT.

ONCE CONVECTION CEASES TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WE SHOULD SEE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS MIXING
INCREASES. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE
EVENING BUT WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND THE
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND
BRIEF. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE MAY RESULT
IN A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY IN PORTIONS OF CIMARRON
COUNTY WHICH RECEIVED AN INCH OR TWO YESTERDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH NEARLY A REPEAT IN
TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONVECTION. A GRADUAL
REORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
AND DRIER MEAN FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO
ISOLATED AT BEST FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AREA WIDE. TOWARD MID WEEK
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN IT WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE NET RESULT
BEING FAIRLY STEADY/NEUTRAL TENDENCIES IN MID LEVEL THERMAL
CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS OUR REGION. NEVERTHELESS A WEAK COLD FRONT
TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ILL-DEFINED TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE POOLING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A PERIOD OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF RETROGRADING UPPER HIGH
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF
JUST LIMITED THE NORTHERN PORTION AS HAS BEEN THE CASE. THIS PATTERN
WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY COOLER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




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