Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 240603 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1203 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES EARLY IN THIS FCST CYCLE AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
HEADS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD...
CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NORTH THIS MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 6
PM CST. THE LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED EXCEPT FOR SOME SNOW
FLURRIES. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS SLATED AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES FOR THIS FCST CYCLE AS THE COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SOME CONCERN FOR FOG AND RETURN OF LOW CIGS
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND HAVE RETAINED IDEAS CONTAINED IN
THE PREVIOUS AVIATION FCST.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING
FOR SUBSIDENCE TO PREVAIL. LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING SNOW COVER. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TONIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE TUESDAY. THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE IF ANY...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
PANHANDLES...AND...ALONG WITH IT COMES OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CLOSER TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. HAVE LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE INCREASES POPS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND WITH A
SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPING IN THE JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE KEPT
A MENTION OF POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DID TRY TO
FOCUS ON THE STRONGER WAVES WITHIN THE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OR
NOT...AND HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS THERE IS QUITE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER WE WARM UP AGAIN BETWEEN THE
FRONTS ON FRIDAY AND THE NEXT ONE SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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