Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 141749 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SRN ROCKIES WILL RESULT A CONTINUATION OF
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AT ALL TERMINAL SITES. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM AT KAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT
COURTESY OF A MINOR APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF AND THE
PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF THIS
OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT KDHT AND KGUY NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF KDHT AND KGUY. A
DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNSET...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS.
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE RIDE UP
FROM THE SOUTH...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL HELP TO
SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT COUPLED
WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL PROVIDE A STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY ON
ITS WAY TO THE EAST OF US. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MODELS STILL DO NOT AGREE ON THE DEPTH OF
THIS TROUGH OR HOW FAST THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE ELEVATED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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