Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 080827
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
327 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS EARLY MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THINK THE BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT TREKS SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN FULL
SWING...THINK THESE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THINK COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
CANADIAN RIVER AND NORTH...BUT NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE RAINFALL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE PASS THROUGH THE AREA SO
EARLY TODAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S NORTH AND 90S SOUTH ARE
EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY DEPENDENT ON COVERAGE OF
STORMS SO 60S AREA WIDE SEEM REASONABLE.

THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT PLAGUE THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GENERALLY THE
COVERAGE WILL DRIFT NORTH TO MOSTLY THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES BY AFTERNOON. THINK STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED
SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE 90S.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT AS MUCH IS DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z
SOLUTIONS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOLUTIONS. THE EARLIER MODEL
RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...PROGGED A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE
PANHANDLES WITH CONVECTION GENERALLY OVER THE AREA EACH DAY. WITH THE
NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT CAN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

WITH THAT SAID...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WOULD NOT MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES. SO THAT IS THE FORECAST
STRATEGY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS THAT SOLUTION IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH WHAT THE AREA TYPICALLY SEES THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FAR AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES...THE LESSER COVERAGE OF STORMS...THE HIGHER THE
TEMPERATURES...SO GENERALLY 90S SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                91  66  91  68  91 /  10  20  10  10   5
BEAVER OK                  89  65  93  70  99 /  20  30  30  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              85  61  91  67  95 /  20  30  20  20  10
BORGER TX                  95  71  94  72  94 /  10  30  20  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              94  69  93  70  94 /  10  30  10  10   5
CANYON TX                  92  64  92  67  91 /  10  20  10  10   5
CLARENDON TX               94  69  91  72  91 /  10  20  10  10   5
DALHART TX                 88  61  90  65  92 /  20  30  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  88  64  92  70  96 /  20  30  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                92  64  91  65  90 /  10  20  10  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                90  66  91  71  93 /  20  30  30  20   5
PAMPA TX                   91  67  90  70  91 /  10  30  20  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                95  67  91  71  93 /  10  20  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              97  70  94  72  94 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.