Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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280
FXUS64 KAMA 230856
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
356 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Closed mid-level low over eastern Nevada at this time expected to
lift northeast today, with shortwave trof to its south moving slowly
eastward toward Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.  Strengthening
southwest flow aloft will be sufficient to produce shear for
organized thunderstorms this evening, with SPC denoting a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms across the northern half of the
forecast area.  A slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms will be
retained today for northwestern sections, where Pacific cold front or
dryline will provide a focus for development.  As boundary advances
eastward tonight strengthening low-level jet will enhance further
development.  Chances for thunderstorms tonight spread east to
encompass all sections.

On Saturday, eastern sections continue with higher pops, owing to
richer and deeper moisture along and east of Pacific front.  On
Saturday night, polar cold front overtakes earlier boundaries,
sweeping through Panhandles by sunrise Sunday.  Much cooler air will
be brought into the area via brisk north winds.  Pops on Sunday will
be ending from the north, with rain showers still being possible
across southern sections Sunday night and Monday.  No pops in later
periods.  Fall-like weather expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
highs remaining below 80.  Gradual warmup thereafter.

Cockrell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                87  62  82  57  69 /   5  30  30  40  40
Beaver OK                  93  66  86  56  72 /   0  30  30  40  20
Boise City OK              86  51  79  49  69 /  20  40   5  10  20
Borger TX                  89  66  84  59  71 /   5  30  30  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              90  57  84  55  71 /  10  30  20  30  40
Canyon TX                  87  61  83  56  69 /   5  30  30  30  50
Clarendon TX               87  64  81  61  70 /   0  40  50  50  60
Dalhart TX                 89  56  83  50  70 /  20  30  10  20  20
Guymon OK                  93  60  85  53  71 /   5  30  10  30  20
Hereford TX                87  60  83  55  68 /   5  30  20  30  50
Lipscomb TX                89  68  83  58  72 /   0  30  50  50  20
Pampa TX                   87  65  82  56  70 /   0  30  40  40  40
Shamrock TX                89  67  84  63  72 /   0  30  60  50  60
Wellington TX              90  68  84  67  72 /   0  20  60  60  70

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/03



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