Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220216 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
816 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
WSR-88D AMARILLO RADAR SHOWING AN EAST TO WEST BAND LOCATED FROM
OLDHAM COUNTY TO BORGER AND THEN INTO WHEELER COUNTY PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTH. THIS BAND IS POSSIBLY A FRONTOGENETICAL BAND AND HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES OF SNOW RACING NORTHEAST FROM AROUND HEREFORD TO
AMARILLO AND THEN CONVERGING WITH THIS BAND. EXPECTING SNOWFALL
RATES TO BEGIN INCREASING THIS EVENING AS THIS BAND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS AMARILLO AND CANYON. ALREADY RECEIVING REPORTS
THAT THE SNOWFALL RATES IN BORGER HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2 INCHES
OR SO PER HOUR. NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 1/4 TO 3/4 OF A MILE AS WELL AS CIGS BELOW
002 DURING HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL
SLOWLY RISE TO MVFR OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE MID-MORNING...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL RISE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW TAPERS OFF. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20KTS OVERNIGHT.

ELSENHEIMER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SNOW IS ALREADY
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE IN AMARILLO...WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A
CHANGEOVER AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO
NEAR FREEZING. ONCE SUNSET OCCURS...THINK MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 8-12 INCHES
IN THE WEST...6-10 INCHES CENTRAL...AND 3-6 INCHES IN THE EAST.
TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO...AS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS ALSO EXPECTING 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL
THINKING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA AS
THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT A DISTINCT SNOW BAND WITH HEAVIER
SNOW WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VEGA...AMARILLO...DUMAS...
PANHANDLE...AND BORGER.

LOWEST CONFIDENCE...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE GETS SOMEWHAT
SHORTCHANGED WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SETTING UP JUST TO THEIR SOUTH.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE OVERKILL FOR THIS AREA...HOWEVER
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE MEANTIME
TO SEE HOW EVERYTHING EVOLVES AND PLAYS OUT AS 6 INCHES IS DEFINITELY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR CIMARRON AND TEXAS COUNTIES. AS FAR AS
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM
IN THE 40S SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO COOL THINGS DOWN TO NEAR OR
AT FREEZING EVEN AFTER SUNSET. AS A RESULT...THINK LOWER SNOW TOTALS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA ESPECIALLY FOR COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...
AND WHEELER COUNTIES. BOTH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY.

HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE DURING THE TIME FRAME OF 9PM-4AM...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 8AM THURSDAY.
THINK THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 1
INCH OF ACCUMULATION OR SO WOULD BE EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING LIKELY NOT BEGINNING UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON IF AT ALL.

ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH
THE SNOW PACK AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
RAPIDLY BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE IS
GOOD NEWS FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE
FREEZING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

KH

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.


&&

$$

18/11






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