Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017


For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout a majority of the TAF
period. Later tonight, we will likely have lower ceilings advance
into the terminals creating MVFR ceilings around 2000 feet. This
will be the main impact for this TAF period. As a heads up beyond
this TAF period, these lower ceilings will likely stick around
through the morning hours tomorrow.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 422 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/

An upper ridge over the Panhandles today through Wednesday will
finally push off to the east by late Wednesday as a closed upper
low over southern California and the southwestern states
approaches from the west. A cold front which has pushed into the
southern portions of the Texas Panhandle will continue to track
slowly south out of the forecast area today. A surface ridge
building in behind the cold front will allow for a cooler and more
moist upslope easterly component to the surface flow today through
Wednesday. A secondary surge of much cooler air will push across
the Panhandles tonight. Low cloudiness should increase across the
Panhandles tonight into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A shortwave trough over the central
Rockies tonight may trigger some showers across the northeastern
portions of the Panhandles late tonight before exiting to the east
of the forecast area Wednesday. A surface low will develop to the
lee of the central Rockies over eastern Colorado Wednesday with
a surface trough extending south into eastern New Mexico.

As the closed upper low approaches from the west Wednesday into
Thursday, the surface low will deepen and result in the surface
trough sharpening up into a pseudo dryline near or just west of
the Texas and New Mexico state line while low level moisture
continues to advect into the Panhandles ahead of the upper system.
The surface pressure gradient ahead of the closed upper low and
deepening surface low will result in strong winds Thursday across
the forecast area. As the dryline begins to mix eastward by
Thursday afternoon, convection will begin to increase in coverage
across the western portions of the forecast area and then spread
eastward across the remainder of the Panhandles by Thursday
evening. Some convection may become severe as the atmosphere
destabilizes Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. A cold front
will move through Panhandles Friday as the closed upper low
tracks east across the northern portions of the forecast area. The
convection will shift into Oklahoma by Friday with wrap around
showers likely Friday in the cold sector of the the upper low as
it pushes east across the forecast area. Cooler conditions late
this week into the early part of the weekend but then warming
trend expected late this weekend into early next week. Another
southern stream closed upper low should affect the Panhandles by
the middle of next week bringing additional chances for convection
to the Panhandles.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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