Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 101435 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
935 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Temperatures have climbed above freezing in the western Oklahoma
and far northwest Texas Panhandles. Therefore, have cancelled
Freeze Warning for this area. Otherwise, current forecast package
remains on track at this time. Updated products have been sent.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 626 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/

For the 12z TAFs...
Downward motions behind departing shortwave trof will result in a
clear sky for the next 24 hours.  Core of stronger winds just
above the surface from near AMA to GUY will cause some gustiness
of surface winds at these terminals through early this afternoon.
Otherwise, northerly surface winds will diminish in the late
afternoon and early evening, losing their northerly component and
returning to light southwest by midnight.  No visibility
restrictions expected.  VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017/

A cold surface ridge will build in over the Panhandles today and
tonight before moving off to the east and south by Wednesday. A
surface trough will develop to the lee of the Rockies by Wednesday
allowing for a warmer south and southwesterly surface flow by mid
week through the end of the week. The closed upper low over
southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle early today will move
east of the forecast area allowing for an upper ridge to build in
over the Panhandles today and tonight. The upper flow will
transition to southwesterly by mid to late week. A cold front will
push south into the northern portions of the forecast area by
late Friday and Friday night but is then forecast to lift
northward this upcoming weekend into southwest Kansas.

The front should then get a final shot of cold air advection
Saturday night to drive the cold front south again and push
completely through the Panhandles by 12Z Sunday. A northern stream
upper trough will track south and east from the Pacific Northwest
Friday and then across the Rockies early this upcoming weekend
before moving east of the Panhandles Sunday. Convection is
expected to develop mainly Friday night through Saturday night
across the forecast area in response to the approaching frontal
boundary and the upper trough. Enough low level moisture should
return ahead of the frontal boundary and upper trough, as surface
dew points are forecast to climb into the 50s once again late
this week into Saturday, to warrant the development of convection
late this week into this weekend.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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