Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1258 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire 18Z TAF period.
Winds will diminish to 10-15 kts out of the southwest as we go past
00Z Tuesday. A cold front will be working south across all TAF sites
starting around 06 Tuesday for KGUY/KDHT and around 09Z for KAMA.
Behind the cold front, winds will shift to the north and be
sustained between 10-15 knots. With the exception of a few high
clouds, skc will dominate throughout the TAF period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 613 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/

VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours. Strong wind gusts up
to 35kt and an early morning cold front will be the main aviation
concerns. Winds will stay out of a southwesterly direction through
00z before a cold front shifts the winds out of a northerly
direction. The front looks to clear KGUY by 3Z with KDHT following by
7Z and KAMA by 9Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 407 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2016/


Strong zonal jet streak across the Rockies is inducing SFC low
across wrn KS. Meanwhile a broad mid-upr high/ridge extends across
NRN Mexico and Texas. This combination has been providing dry SW flow
across the panhandles the last few days with record breaking highs.
Expect one more day of potentially record setting highs across the
region, although believe the combination of a cirrus deck across the
region and modest lowering of H5 heights will lead to slightly cooler
highs than what we saw yesterday. PGrad will support breezy- windy
conditions across the area as well which will lead to another
critical fire threat today as RH values dip into the single digits
(see fire section below). A s/wv in the jet flow will help push a
cold front into the region early Tuesday morning finally providing
cooler conditions. Winds will already be turning southerly by
Wednesday, but a more substantial trough will amplify as it passes
east of the region driving a stronger front across the area on
Wednesday. This will lead to much more substantial cool down with
lows flirting with freezing mark Thursday morning across the far NW
and 30s perhaps for all but the SE third of the area. Temps will only
be in the 60s Thursday, then anticipate a modest warm up back to
above normal values over the weekend as mid-upr level ridging
develops across TX again. Things stay dry the entire period as the
area remains moisture starved and without influence of significant
upper systems.

Anticipate significant red flag conditions across most of the area
today as temps climb into the mid-upr 90s while RH values drop into
the single digits and winds gust to 35-40 mph. RFTIs are shown to be
in the 6-8 range across much of the area with highest values in the
SW where strongest winds are expected. Easy decision to maintain the
Red Flag Warning and decided to extend it into include Gray county as
well based on lasted forecasts. Winds will be slightly less across
the far SE corner and fuels are least dry in this area as well, so
will just issue a fire danger statement to cover the threat in the SE
3 counties. Cold front will help raise min RH values on Tuesday, but
still anticipate values in 15-20% range. Winds are expected to below
critical thresholds however.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Gray...

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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