Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180933
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE VERY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK BEFORE POSSIBLY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS WEEK WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SRN STREAM
FEATURING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS OR CLOSED LOWS.

THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES WAS SITUATED NEAR
THE CNTRL CA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE NEWD TOWARDS WY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE
NRN PLAINS BY WED MORNING AND WEAKEN FURTHER. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVG SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TODAY AND SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...EAST TO SE LOW LEVEL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMMENCE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS MOVG ENE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUE...THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS DURG THIS PERIOD. ALL THIS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESRPEAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FCST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DECIDED TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS. CONTEMPLATED A FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER TODAY...AND ONE MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS IF NOT ALL THE FCST
AREA. INCREASED POPS MORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN TAPERED VALUES
FROM WEST TO EAST TUE NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND WEAKENS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR LOOKS PLAUSIBLE
LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FOR WED AND THURSDAY. HAVE COMPROMISED AND RESTRICTED POPS
TO JUST SLGT CHC VALUES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WED THRU THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG DOWN TO NEAR THE SRN CA COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN HEAD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SAT MORNING...
AND FINALLY INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM TO UTILIZE...AND
HAVE RAISED POPS SOME FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER SATURDAY...POPS WERE FASHIONED IN A GRADIENT
WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN ZONES...INCREASING TO HIGH CHC ERN ZONES.
POPS WERE THEN RESTRICTED TO JUST THE ERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER THEN RETURNS FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  55  69  51  68 /  10  90  90  40  20
BEAVER OK                  73  51  61  48  62 /   5  60  90  70  10
BOISE CITY OK              71  49  60  47  62 /  10  90  90  40  10
BORGER TX                  79  55  67  54  67 /  10  90  90  50  20
BOYS RANCH TX              78  54  69  50  67 /  10  90  90  30  10
CANYON TX                  78  55  69  50  69 /  10  90  90  40  20
CLARENDON TX               80  57  69  54  70 /  10  70  90  60  20
DALHART TX                 74  53  64  48  65 /  10  90  90  40  10
GUYMON OK                  73  51  61  49  62 /  10  80  90  60  10
HEREFORD TX                80  54  70  50  70 /  10  90  90  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                75  54  64  50  65 /  10  60  90  70  20
PAMPA TX                   76  53  65  52  66 /  10  70  90  60  20
SHAMROCK TX                80  57  68  55  70 /  10  60  90  70  20
WELLINGTON TX              83  59  70  57  72 /  10  60  90  60  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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