Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 210754
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
254 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The panhandles will be on the south and southwest side of a large
upper level trough over the central U.S. for the next couple of
days. The west to northwest flow across the panhandles will bring
several short wave troughs across the region through Monday night.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move this way from the
mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico this
afternoon. A short wave trough will help to bring the showers and
storms across much of the panhandles tonight. Some of the storms may
get strong to marginally severe with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats.

Another short wave trough will move through the panhandles Monday
and another will move through later Monday night. This should keep
the chances of showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Some of the storms on Monday afternoon and evening could become
severe if the instability can be realized. This will be conditional
on how much daytime heating we will get. However, the upper level
dynamics will also be increasing on Monday afternoon, so this might
be able to overcome the lack of any daytime heating. The models are
not in agreement on the timing of these various short wave troughs
that move through the region and their impact on our rain chances.
So, our pops will likely change for Monday and Monday night.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move south of our area on
Tuesday with another strong cold front. By Tuesday night there may
be some showers and thunderstorms that clip the southwest Texas
Panhandle. This activity will be moving this way from the New Mexico
mountains so it is uncertain if they can make it into our area.

Wednesday and beyond will remain dry. Upper level heights become
more zonal and most of the storm systems will miss us to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                77  52  72  48  68 /  10  50  50  40  10
Beaver OK                  78  52  73  47  69 /  20  50  50  40  10
Boise City OK              76  47  70  45  66 /  40  50  30  40  10
Borger TX                  80  54  73  52  70 /  10  50  50  40  10
Boys Ranch TX              80  52  75  48  71 /  10  50  50  40  10
Canyon TX                  78  53  74  50  69 /  10  50  60  40  10
Clarendon TX               76  52  72  51  69 /   5  30  50  40  10
Dalhart TX                 79  51  73  46  68 /  10  60  40  40  10
Guymon OK                  78  51  73  48  69 /  30  60  40  40  10
Hereford TX                78  53  75  48  68 /   5  50  60  40  10
Lipscomb TX                77  53  72  49  69 /  10  40  50  40  10
Pampa TX                   74  50  71  46  67 /  10  40  50  40  10
Shamrock TX                77  53  72  51  69 /   5  30  50  40  10
Wellington TX              78  54  74  53  71 /   5  30  50  40  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15


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