Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202216

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
516 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

00Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period
for all sites. Southerly flow will remain around 15kts through the



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016/

Water vapor imagery shows 597 dam ridge dominating over the
Southern Plains and slightly more amplified than yesterday. An
upper trough is spinning off the coast in the Pac NW with upper
flow extending into the far Northern Plains where more active
weather is expected.

For today and Thursday...continued hot and dry with highs in the
mid-high 90s. Thursday looks to be even warmer with many areas
expected to reach 100... especially along the OK panhandle. Weak
lee troughing will keep southerly winds in the forecast for much
of the period. Continues strong subsidence will keep convection
out of the forecast through Thursday.

Beyond Thursday... Continued hot with highs near 100 through
Saturday. The ridge will begin to deamplify and elongate Friday
into the weekend. This will allow perhaps a storm or two to make
it off the mountains and into The western OK panhandle and far
northwestern TX panhandle with weak northwesterly flow aloft on
Friday. Moisture will be limited with well mixed boundary layer so
expect gusty winds will be possible with any storms that develop.
Increased chances of precipitation are on tap for Sat into early
next week as a more pronounced lee side low develops and tries to
bring a weak frontal boundary into the area. Long term models show
continued northwest flow through the middle of next week with
gradual height falls resulting in chances of precip through the


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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