Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 101723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1123 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.AVIATION...18Z Tafs

VFR conditions will prevail under scattered to broken high clouds.
Winds will back to southerly this afternoon and continue with a
southerly direction through the first half of the night. Winds will
then veer southwesterly toward daybreak Wednesday and eventually
start getting gusty toward the very end of this TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 529 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

A messy forecast is in the offing late this week through the weekend
with a wide variety of winter precipitation possible. For today and
Wednesday, above normal temperatures will continue as a leeside sfc
trof of low pressure develops along the ern slopes of the Rockies
with corresponding downsloping southwest to west winds expected.

Beyond Wednesday the forecast becomes a nightmare with respect to a
developing closed low over the southwest states and its interaction
with the next surge of cold air expected to affect the srn high
plains beginning Thursday. Medium range models have trended just a
bit warmer compared to earlier runs, with the 00Z GFS the warmest,
slowest, and furthest south overall while the 00Z ECMWF is the
coldest, a bit faster, and has a track further north. These
differences have all kinds of implications for precipitation type,
location, and amounts beginning Friday and lasting through the
weekend. Consequently, forecaster confidence remains low for Friday
through Sunday night, with adjustments to the forecast possible as
the event gets closer.

For this package, models do agree on bringing the initial cold front
through the forecast area on Thursday, with a gradient in high
temperatures anticipated, as well as room to trend down on highs
further that day if the cold air surges south quicker.

From Friday through Sunday night, decided to trend a bit more towards
the majority of the cooler models as the GFS seems too warm overall.
Have gone with a mixed winter precip event for much of the area durg
this time period with the northwest sections trending more towards
sleet and snow with time while the remainder of the fcst area will
likely experience episodes of mixed precipitation ranging from light
rain, light freezing rain, light sleet, and light snow. Winter
precipitation amounts are highly unknown at this time due to low
forecaster confidence and disagreement among the various models.
Expect refinements to the forecast during the next few days. No pops
after Sunday night with dry weather and moderating temperatures
foreseen early next week.


Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon due to 20 foot
Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph along with forecast minimum relative
humidity values between 15 and 20 percent. Neither elevated nor
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated from Thursday
through early next week due to a prolonged threat of precipitation.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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