Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261022
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE BY 19Z TODAY TO AROUND 18 TO 28 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH AFTER 06Z TO 08Z WEDNESDAY 10 TO 20
KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD TODAY...IT
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND NEBRASKA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN
THE TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THOUGH. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE
DRY AND WINDY SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE DRYLINE. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH...AND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE PANHANDLES.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SUITE OF COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS NEXT
LOW...THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOWERED DUE TO THE COMPLEX
NATURE OF THIS EVOLVING PATTERN AND LIMITED RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
FROM SOME MODELS. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE UPPER LOW TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IN RESPONSE TO THIS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL ALSO BRING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COULD
BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO KANSAS AND COLORADO. LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR ANYTHING SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...AND THE MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
HOW THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EVOLVE HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE REGION...FELT THAT IT WAS
WISE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE EVERY DAY TO BE
RAINY...BUT MORE DETAIL WILL BE ADDED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LIKELY BEING MET ACROSS MOST OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY...FINE GRASSY FUELS CONTINUE TO
BE AFFECTED BY RECENT WETTING RAINS. THEREFORE GIVEN THE MARGINAL
STATUS OF FUELS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RESIDENTS OF
THE PANHANDLES SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION AND AVOID ACTIVITIES
THAT INVOLVE OPEN FLAMES OR CAUSE SPARKS OUTDOORS TODAY. NO ELEVATED
OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY DUE TO
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

NF

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  45  74  44  75 /   0   5   0   0  10
BEAVER OK                  82  46  71  42  73 /  10  10   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              70  39  67  38  66 /   0   5   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  81  49  74  46  76 /   5   5   0   0  10
BOYS RANCH TX              77  45  74  44  76 /   0   5   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  79  45  76  44  77 /   0   5   0   0  10
CLARENDON TX               82  49  75  48  77 /   0   5   0   0  20
DALHART TX                 73  40  70  41  71 /   0   5   0   0  10
GUYMON OK                  77  45  69  41  71 /   5   5   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                77  44  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LIPSCOMB TX                84  48  73  44  75 /  10  10   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   81  47  73  44  75 /   5   5   0   0  10
SHAMROCK TX                86  50  76  48  77 /   5   5   0   0  20
WELLINGTON TX              88  52  79  49  79 /   5   5   0   0  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/6



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