Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 201723 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1223 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN PART OF FORECAST
AREA WITH COVERAGE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.  SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND MAY MOVE INTO
THE FAR WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AFTER 00Z MON. GIVEN THAT
CONVECTION BARELY MADE IT INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY AND THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED CLOSER TO THE
AREA...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN EVEN INSERTING A VCTS MENTION AT
KDHT/KGUY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED FROM WHAT WAS SEEN IN YESTERDAYS MODELS. FOR TODAY
.THE SFC TROF IN ERN NM MAY ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLD
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WRN SECTIONS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS.
SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS AREA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN THE GRIDS. THE SAME
SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY. SLGT CHC POPS HAVE BEEN
UTILIZED FOR THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY THRU NEXT SATURDAY WILL FEATURE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF THE
LATTER HALF OF JULY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND REMAIN AROUND THE
VICINITY FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS TRANSLATES TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE A FEW
CAVEATS TO THE ABOVE. THE LATEST 00Z GFS...CMC...AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO REORIENT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FURTHER W TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATER NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. THIS WOULD BEGIN TO PUT
OUR FCST AREA IN SOME SEMBLANCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A COUPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES INTO AT LEAST THE NRN
ZONES. ONE SUCH BOUNDARY IS SLATED FOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
WITH A SECOND BOUNDARY INDICATED FOR NEXT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. EITHER ONE OR BOTH OF THESE PROGGED BOUNDARIES MAY YIELD SOME
TSTM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN BOUNDARY STRENGTH AND HOW
FAR INTO OUR FCST AREA EACH ONE GETS...MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
STRENGTH...AND THE EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING POPS IF CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FABORABLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RECENT RAINS...EXTENSIVE GREENUP...
FOREAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT...
20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH...AND LOW ERC VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/09




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