Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161606 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1106 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Have made some minor updates to public forecast grids, mainly
winds and sky cover this afternoon. Latest surface analysis
depicts leading edge of the wind shift associated with a cold
front has already moved across much of the OK Panhandle and
northwest third of the Texas Panhandle, and have adjusted wind
grids to account for this during the afternoon hours. Have also
tweaked sky cover grids for this afternoon all zones based on
latest satellite imagery. Updated products have been sent.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 619 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/

VFR conditions expected to prevail next 24 hours.  Only high
clouds overhead this morning.  Some high-based cumulus expected
around AMA this afternoon.  Weak boundary drops into northern
sections today, causing variability in surface wind direction at
northern terminals.  Scattered evening thunderstorms across
southeast half of forecast area may pose a threat to the AMA
terminal.  Cold front drops into northern part of forecast area
before 12z Sunday, bringing a VFR overcast stratocumulus layer to
GUY following frontal passage.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 507 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017/

Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring moisture from
Hurricane Norma to the area through the weekend. This will bring
continued chances for thunderstorm development across the
Panhandles through Monday night. By Monday, the upper level flow
will turn more zonal which will shut off the moisture from the
Pacific and leave the Panhandles dry until the end of the week
when southwest flow returns.

In the lower levels, a front will approach the Panhandles today
and enter the northern zones on Sunday. This will serve as a focus
for storms to spread further northward tonight and keep the area
5 to 10 degrees cooler on Sunday. By Monday, the frontal boundary
modifies out and summer-like temps return. Another front will push
into the Panhandles Wednesday, but with the moisture shut off, its
passage will be dry and with only a small air modification. This
front looks to stall out just south of the area.


RH stays above 20 percent through most of the week; however, on
Tuesday, RH dips below 20 percent. 20 ft winds on Tuesday look to
be between 15 and 20 mph, putting portions of the Panhandles into
elevated conditions.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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