Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022117
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
317 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH TOMORROW...HOWEVER
IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND GENERAL POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONAL WEAK S/WVS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BASED OF THE THROUGH ACROSS REGION THROUGH WED NIGHT PROVIDING
PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AS SEEN IN H7-H3 Q-VECTOR FIELDS.
MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH THAT TO KEEP
SKIES IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY MOST MODELS AGREE THE LAST AND STRONGEST OF THESE WILL
PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS NW ZONES WED NIGHT. WILL
INTRODUCE POPS FOR SLT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS WED NIGHT
BUT LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. YET ANOTHER S/WV
WILL WORK AROUND THE WRN US H5 RIDGE BEFORE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TOWARD WRN TEXAS BY FRI. THERE IS A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS WRT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS NM AND
WRN TEXAS. THE GEM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE...CLOSING OFF THE SYSTEM INTO A
CLOSED LOW IN ERN NM WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE SYSTEM BUT KEEP
IT AN OPEN...POSITIVELY TILTED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. ALL THREE
SHOW GOOD AMOUNTS OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...BUT AGAIN LACK MUCH MOISTURE
TO TO MUCH WITH IT. OF COURSE THE GEM WOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO DRAW
MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WOULD BE THE MORE INTERESTING SOLN...ESP
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT ONLY ONE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTED THIS SOLN.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST WHICH AGAIN LIMITS POPS TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS MORE FAVORED SW ZONES FOR A RA/SN MIX.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ADDITIONAL S/WVS WILL DIP SE ACROSS THE MID WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BY MONDAY...A
DEEP TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN US WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN
US ALL THE WAY INTO WRN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING RE-ENFORCING FRONTAL
PASSAGES ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY OTHER DAY...BUT ALSO CARRIES
THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR INTO THE SE US. BASED ON THIS...EXPECT A
GENERALLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH COOLING TREND LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                21  40  20  51  24 /   0   0  10   0   0
BEAVER OK                  20  39  17  49  21 /   0   0   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              16  36  14  45  20 /   5  10  20   0   0
BORGER TX                  23  40  20  51  28 /   0   0  10   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              20  40  18  53  23 /   0   0  10   0   0
CANYON TX                  20  41  19  53  24 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLARENDON TX               23  43  23  52  26 /   0   0   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 19  38  17  50  21 /   5   5  20   0   0
GUYMON OK                  19  38  17  48  22 /   0   5  10   0   0
HEREFORD TX                20  41  19  52  23 /   5   0  10   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                22  41  19  50  25 /   0   0   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   21  39  21  50  25 /   0   0   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                24  43  22  51  27 /   0   0   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              25  45  23  53  27 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

MJG


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