Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250916
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS FEATURE
WAS MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE SO FAR BUT WITH INCREASING ASCENT OVER A
REGION OF DEEPER MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS...AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND SO WILL THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION. FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLES. LATER IN THE DAY FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SECOND WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
AND MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPERATURES COOL IN A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS.

FOR THE MID RANGE PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A TENDENCY FOR HEIGHT RISES AS FLAT/LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF TEXAS AND MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND A DIFFUSE/TRANSIENT DRYLINE. THE
LACK OF ANY NOTABLE WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAVES SOME DOUBT IN HOW
SHARP THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BECOME AND HOW MUCH OF A
NORTHWESTWARD SURGE OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS JUST TO OUR EAST
WILL OCCUR ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND PEAK WITH
DIURNAL HEATING LASTING INTO THE EVENING BOTH DAYS. THE MOST APPARENT
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WHEN MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.

A GRADUAL SHIFT TOWARD A PATTERN OF LESS MOMENTUM IN THE LOWER
LATITUDES AND FOCUS OF STRONGER WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES
CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE MORE NOTABLE ALBEIT WEAKER
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES BY LATE WEEK BRINGING THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD THEN.
THEREAFTER SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS OCCUR TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON HOW FAST THIS LATE WEEK UPPER TROUGH WILL
EXIT THE REGION. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WERE RETAINED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT COMMENSURATE WITH THE FASTER ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  52  81  57  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  81  55  81  58  85 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              79  50  76  53  83 /  20  20  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  81  58  83  58  88 /  10  20  20  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              83  52  82  55  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  80  52  82  55  86 /  10  10  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               76  57  82  59  87 /  20  10  20  10  20
DALHART TX                 81  51  79  53  86 /  20  20  10  10  10
GUYMON OK                  81  52  79  55  86 /  20  20  20  10  20
HEREFORD TX                80  52  83  54  86 /  10  10   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                79  58  80  59  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   75  56  80  57  85 /  20  20  20  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                75  58  80  59  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              76  60  82  61  89 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/17





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