Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 162050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING.  SLOW MOVEMENT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND HAVE
PULLED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HAVE ELIMINATED MORNING AND LATE NIGHT POPS AS
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON POPS
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...OWING TO WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
MONDAY AFTERNOON POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED TO INCLUDE ONLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER
AND STRONGER RESPECTIVELY.

TUESDAY POPS IN NORTH HAVE BEEN KEPT...BUT BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
HAVE INCREASED OR INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA...AS GFS AND ECMWF PREDICT RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE...INFERRED BY POSITION OF 700 MB THETA-E RIDGE.  MODERATE
500 MB TEMPERATURES PREDICTED DURING THIS TIME SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND NON-
SUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  95  67  94  67 /  30  10  20   5  10
BEAVER OK                  68 101  69 103  67 /  20  10  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  97  64  94  64 /  20  10  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  72 101  73  98  73 /  20  10  20  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              67  99  66  97  67 /  20  10  20   5  20
CANYON TX                  65  96  65  95  65 /  30  10  20   0  10
CLARENDON TX               68  96  71  94  70 /  20  10  20   0  10
DALHART TX                 63  97  62  94  63 /  20  10  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  67 101  68  99  67 /  20  10  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                64  96  63  94  64 /  30  10  20   0  20
LIPSCOMB TX                65  98  70  99  69 /  20  10  20  10  10
PAMPA TX                   68  96  69  95  69 /  20  10  20  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                65  98  70  96  70 /  20  10  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              68  99  71  97  70 /  20  10  20   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/05



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