Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 180606

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
106 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Earlier thunderstorms across the northern zones have dissipated
with only a few isolated showers southeast of KGUY. VFR conditions
are expected for this package as mid level clouds clear out of
the area around sunrise. Some fog is possible in the far southeast
Texas Panhandle this morning but should not affect any terminal.
Wind will be southerly but shift to the southwest and increase to
around 15-20 knots in the afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 621 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

For the 00z TAFs...
VFR conditions expected to prevail.  Isolated thunderstorms at
this time over northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado not
expected to reach northern terminals, but will monitor closely.
Patchy fog will develop across mainly the eastern half of the
forecast area late tonight, but expecting any aviation impacts to
be minimal.  Southeast surface winds this evening will trend to
south overnight, with southwest surface winds prevailing during
the day on Tuesday.  No thunderstorms expected on Tuesday.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

Storms are starting to fire up in New Mexico this afternoon. Hi-
res models indicate there is a chance for the storms to make it to
the western Panhandles late this afternoon. The TTU WRF has storms
initiating in the southwestern TX Panhandle. Soundings indicate
there is a good amount of instability and low level directional
shear for storms to strengthen if they can get strong enough.
There are several boundaries left over across the Panhandles from
the storms last night as well as a dry line in the western
Panhandles. Storms will likely need to adhere to one of these to
become strong. In addition, there is a weak upper level shortwave
that should cross over the area this evening which could aid in
storm strengthening. If we see any storms, it will likely be just
a few isolated ones that could become severe.

As moisture continues to get pumped into the eastern Panhandles,
patchy fog development will again be likely tonight. After the sun
burns it off, Tuesday through Thursday will see temps warm into
the 80s and even some 90s due to downsloping and abundant
sunshine. The next system continues to look on track for bringing
precip back to the area Thursday night through Saturday. Long
range models are becoming more in agreement with cutting off
precip early on Saturday and dryslotting the area. At this time,
thunderstorms look to remain below severe levels. The remainder of
the weekend looks to be dry as upper level ridging takes hold.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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