Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 150933
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
433 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow aloft will continue for the duration of the
forecast, as mid-level trof persists, supported by a succession of
jet streaks arriving from the northeast Pacific.  This flow will
tap moisture from the Pacific west of Mexico, particularly in
light of Tropical Storm Norma, which is progged to drift north,
before its remnants become absorbed into the base of the trof.
All of this spells continued chances for showers and
thunderstorms for most periods of the forecast, with the southeast
half of the forecast area being favored, due to the expected
moisture trajectory.

In the near term, nocturnal thunderstorms showing signs of
dissipating at this time as low-level westerly flow behind outflow
boundary advances eastward.  Boundary expected to stall across
eastern sections this afternoon, with chances for more
thunderstorms continuing in the east through tonight.  Cold front
makes an intrusion into northern sections on Saturday and Sunday,
with slightly cooler conditions, especially in the northwest.
Models suggest that a stronger cold front arrives Tuesday night
and Wednesday, with drier and more stable air behind it, briefly
putting a damper on rain chances Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest and south winds are expected today through Saturday as a
surface trof of low pressure remains over the area.  Relative
humidity will fall to around 20 percent across northwest sections
of the Combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today, but no
elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected due to
moist fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may develop on
Tuesday across northwest sections as dry southwest winds resume.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  64  88  63  86 /  20  10  30  30  30
Beaver OK                  96  66  92  62  87 /  20  10  20  30  30
Boise City OK              91  57  86  57  81 /   5   5  10   5  20
Borger TX                  95  67  92  65  88 /  20  10  20  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              93  64  91  62  86 /  10   5  20  30  30
Canyon TX                  93  63  89  62  86 /  20  10  30  30  30
Clarendon TX               94  65  91  64  87 /  20  20  30  30  20
Dalhart TX                 92  59  89  59  84 /   5   5  10  20  30
Guymon OK                  95  63  89  60  86 /  10   5  10  20  30
Hereford TX                91  62  89  62  86 /  10  10  20  30  30
Lipscomb TX                96  67  93  64  88 /  20  20  20  30  30
Pampa TX                   93  66  90  63  87 /  20  20  30  30  30
Shamrock TX                95  67  93  66  90 /  20  20  20  30  20
Wellington TX              96  68  93  67  91 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/29



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