000
FXUS64 KAMA 120825
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
325 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS IT SEEMS TO BE
THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL OF LATE. BROAD UPPER HIGH/RIDGE DOMINATES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKS WEST AND NORTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE BIG BEND OF
TEXAS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AS THE UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE IS
SHOVED EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW...NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THIS UPPER LOW
IS A TUTT LOW OR NOT...WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
ON POPS SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO-THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AND FORECASTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO OPEN WAVE BY
LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST INTO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN NOT AS HOT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWERING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD. AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO RISE SLIGHTLY AGAIN BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THIS
WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE 20 FOOT WINDS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TECHNICALLY DO MEET THE CRITERIA FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...WILL OPT T6O NOT MENTION DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE FIRE DANGER RATING AND ALSO THE RECENT
RAINFALL WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE SOMEWHAT ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE...EITHER THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
CRITERIA FOR EVEN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                99  68  97  68  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                 103  68 102  68 101 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              99  65  99  66  95 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                 101  72 100  71  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX             101  67 100  68  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  99  67  97  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               99  70  97  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALHART TX                100  63  98  65  94 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                 102  67 102  67  99 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                98  66  96  66  90 /   0   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX               102  68 101  69  98 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                  100  69  99  68  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX               101  70 100  71  95 /   0   0   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX             101  72 100  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11