Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
CAN SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WX IS STILL NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE WHILE THE POP ORIENTATION HAS BEEN PRETTY
MUCH UNCHANGED...HAVE GONE AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS STRATOCU DECK
HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OK PANHANDLE AND THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS HAS ALSO RESULTED IN TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED HIGH
TEMPS FOR TODAY. HAVE GONE AND INCREASED TEMPS IN THIS AREA A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ SCT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITTING OVER EASTERN
NM IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AND INSERTED VCTS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IF ANY STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PIN DOWN AS A PREVAILING GROUP.
TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY PASSING STORM BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH BKN STRATOCU DECK
/VFR CIGS/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT CAUSING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH
MONDAY MORNING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE TAF AS THIS SEEMED
LIKE A GOOD REFLECTION OF OUR CONFIDENCE IN A SHOWER OR STORM. WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WELL IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES MISSED OUT ON SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL YESTERDAY AS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA BENEFITED THE MOST.
TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINS BUT NOT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY WEST OF WICHITA FALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THINK THIS COMPLEX HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. BUT AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DEVELOPMENT REALLY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW MODELS
DEVELOP SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS BUT NOT TOO IMPRESSED TO KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS
AND HIGHS TO REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THE FIRST REAL POTENTIAL OF A DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM SET UP LOOKS
FAIRLY GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED. EAST OF
THE DRYLINE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
FIRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THERE
WOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP BEFORE
THE STORMS MARCH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BUT MOSTLY DAMAGING
WINDS. IT IS AT LEAST SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH US FIRMLY BEING IN
SEVERE WEATHER SEASON.

BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE STORY. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AS A
VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THIS POINT...QUITE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AS THE CASE
HAS BEEN ALL TOO FREQUENTLY FOR THE PANHANDLES...MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT AT LEAST THE PATTERN IS GETTING MORE ACTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO
MAY WITH HOPES FOR SOME DROUGHT RELIEF.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/03





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