Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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436
FXUS64 KAMA 171733
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1133 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs...
MVFR ceilings have lifted from all terminals.  Some afternoon
cumulus may develop, but VFR conditions with light surface winds are
expected to prevail through at least 04z Wednesday.  IFR ceilings
expected to develop at all terminals between 04z and 07z as light
south or southwest surface winds resume.  IFR ceilings in MVFR or
lower fog expected to linger through much of the morning Wednesday.
Low certainty regarding timing of low cloud development and
dissipation.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 550 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
Lingering low clouds from the previous weather system will
make for MVFR/IFR conditions through about 15z for TAF sites. Cigs
will range from 1000-2500ft. Categories will likely bounce in and out
of VFR as cigs shift from SCT to BKN. All TAF sites should go VFR by
18z, but could once again go MVFR after 06z tonight with more low
clouds returning. Winds will generally be less than 10kts and out of
the northwest to begin the period, and become more southerly after
18z.

Weber

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Relatively quiet weather is expected across the Panhandles through
the work week despite a pair of upper level disturbances expected to
traverse the Panhandles. As we approach the weekend we could be
looking at another round of (light) snow.

Currently we find ourselves under southwest winds aloft as a trough
extends from the Panhandles to the Baja Peninsula. This trough is
expected to close off as it begins 48 hour trip across the
Panhandles. Given the position of this low we should warm into the
upper 40s and lower 50s. As the low moves into southern Arizona and
New Mexico this evening, we could see some shower activity move
northward into the southern Texas Panhandle. The southeastern Texas
Panhandles will have the highest chance to see these showers later
Tonight, and our temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere
will also be warm enough to keep precip in the liquid category. A
flake or two can`t be ruled out for locations in the far northeastern
Texas Panhandle as we approach daybreak Wednesday, but this change
over should be short lived. This precip should end fair quickly
after daybreak as the center of the upper low moves over the area and
the left exit region of the upper jet moves east of the Panhandles.
Our high temperatures will top out in the 50s with the 60 degree mark
not being out of the question for the southeastern Texas Panhandle.

Over the course of the day on Thursday, we will see the upper low
depart the Panhandles to briefly be replaced by an upper ridge. Since
the ridge will be building after peak heating our high temperatures
will only be a handful of degrees warmer than on Wednesday. Thursday
night into Friday morning the ridge will shift to the east as another
upper low moves out of the southern Rockies, and this low will lift
across the Oklahoma Panhandle and southern Kansas During the day
Friday. This current track will keep the Panhandles in the dry slot
of the system while parts of Kansas could see precip.

Our next system which could bring wintry precip is expected over the
weekend. A longwave trough is expected to slide across the western US
and push the jet south of the Panhandles Saturday afternoon.
Embedded in the trough is a shortwave which could bring us our precip.
The exact track of this low is not agreed upon in the medium range
models. The GFS is more agressive with closing the shortwave off
prior to reaching the area while the ECMWF keeps it an open until it
exits the area. The results in very different precip potential. The
more agressive GFS would keep us drier during the evening, but higher
precip chances overnight (with a faster possible change over to
snow). The ECMWF`s open wave allows for greater precip chances during
the afternoon while greatly cutting back on the area coverage of
precip overnight. For now have kept precip chances on the low end
given this uncertainty. Precipitation type was mainly determined
through ECMWF thermal profiles as the GFS continues to be far too
warm in the lower levels. The low is expected to clear the
Panhandles as late as midday Sunday.

Another system looks to target the Panhandles early next week, but
initial  thoughts is that we will be on the dry side.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/15



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