Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231145 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
645 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

For the 12Z TAFS, expect low clouds and patchy fog to erode this
morning, leading to VFR conditions at all TAF sites by mid to late
morning. Low confidence as to whether or not tstms will impact any of
the terminal sites late this afternoon or evening, mainly at KGUY
and/or KAMA. Sfc dryline will likely move into central zones later
today to a position near or just east of a KGUY to KAMA line. Decided
to omit mention of tstms for this fcst issuance due to low confidence
in where the dryline ends up later today.



.Prev Discussion... /Issued 452 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

Between the severe weather yesterday evening working over the
atmosphere and the outflow boundary left behind in the western
Panhandles, it is hard to say exactly what is going to happen today.
The dryline looks to set up somewhere in the western to central
Panhandles and will likely be the focus for storm initiation today as
an upper level shortwave provides the large scale lift. With 40 kts
of effective bulk shear flowing perpendicular to the dryline, plenty
of CAPE across the central and eastern Panhandles, and steep mid-
level lapse rates, storm mode should be discrete supercells. Forecast
soundings show the cap being broken around 3pm and a large amount of
CAPE in the hail growth zone. Main hazards today will be large hail,
up to baseballs, and damaging winds. An isolated tornado couldn`t be
ruled out either. With forecast PWAT values at 1.26, which is near
the climatological max for this time of year, heavy downpours will be
possible. If storms move slowly, flash flooding could be a problem,
especially in areas that received precip last night.

The dryline looks to push into the eastern Panhandles Tuesday, and
with another upper level shortwave bringing lift to the area, another
round of storms is expected. With similar values of bulk shear and
CAPE available, if the atmosphere isn`t too worked over after 3 days
worth of storms, Tuesday`s storms could be severe as well. As an
upper level trough digs into the western conus mid week, the area
will see a break from precip. Models disagree a bit in timing and
evolution of the trough as it slides east, so left the extended as a
model blend with slight chances for precip again on Thursday, Friday,
and Sunday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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