Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222026 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
221 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Corrected spacing in Climate Section...

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge set up off the California coast
continues to place the region under northwesterly to northerly
flow the rest of the week. Lee side troughing will develop
Thanksgiving Day and Friday, which will help bring downsloping
flow into the area and aid with a warming trend. As shown in the
climate section below, near record to record high temperatures may
occur on Friday. An approaching dry cold front on Friday could
bring breezy conditions, but the strongest low level winds may be
south of the region. After the cold front passes, high
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Saturday before
another warming trend starts. The strong ridge across the west is
expected to migrate east across the area, helping establish a
warming trend with near record high temperatures possible once
more on Monday. The pattern could potentially shift starting
Tuesday next week with another approaching weather system and
associated cold front. At present, have opted not to forecast any
precipitation with this system late Tuesday into Wednesday as,
regardless of which model that is followed, we will be either dry
slotted or the system will be moisture starved.

Bieda

&&

.AVIATION...Previous Discussion...
18z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions expected through period. Southwest winds around 15
knots will decrease to 5-10 knots and gradually veer to
northwesterly overnight.

Ward

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Approaching cold fronts on Friday and Monday may
aid in the development of lee side troughs that could bring brief
elevated fire weather conditions to the western Panhandles.
Twenty foot winds could potentially approach 15 mph due to an
approaching front on Friday which, in combination with relative
humidities around 15 to 20 percent, could result in the western
Panhandles experiencing elevated fire weather conditions. Twenty
foot winds next Monday may struggle to reach elevated criteria,
though most of the region could see minimum relative humidity
values between 15 to 20 percent. Beyond those two days, the rest
of the forecast period should not see fire weather concerns.

Bieda

&&

.CLIMATE...Near record to record high temperatures are presently
forecasted across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on Friday (Nov
24). Provided below are the climate sites which could set new
records:

Amarillo: Nov 24th high temp record 78 (1981), forecast is 79
Borger: Nov 24th high temp record is 80 (1981), forecast is 80
Dalhart: Nov 24th high temp record is 78 (1990), forecast is 79

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/98



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