Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 301151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRED AT
30/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 12.9N 19.3W AT
30/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 272 NM E-SE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM NE AND 120 NM SW OF THE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 48W/
49W FROM 9N-19N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N
MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF AEROSOLS OR DUST RIDING
N OF THE INVERTED V THAT IS THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 61W S OF 20N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS TRAILING AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 64W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN
RESUMES W OF T.S. FRED NEAR 11N21W TO 8N38W. THE ITCZ IS BETWEEN
THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 19W-23W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
28W-35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 51W-54W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA DOMINATING THE
GULF WATERS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF ALABAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA
EXTENDS FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR 27N87W ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DIFFLUENT FLOW. THIS IS ALL COMBINING TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO
THE W TIP OF CUBA INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF
93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA S OF
23N BETWEEN 92W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING THEN NW THROUGH THE E GULF TODAY THROUGH
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS TO W CUBA THEN NE INTO THE
W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO
OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-86W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND COMBINED WITH
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N69W TO OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N64W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N
BETWEEN 78W-80W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA
WILL MOVE NW OVER CUBA THIS MORNING THEN OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON
NIGHT AND TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
AND COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE APPROACHING
THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE E AS THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND MON AND TUE. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND LATER TODAY THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM OVER
FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 31N72W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N81W. THE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 78W TO CUBA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-78W. A ELONGATED E/W UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N47W ALONG 27N52W TO 25N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W
OF 60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N69W AND
A 1019 HIGH NEAR 24N40W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S.
ERIKA WILL MOVE NW INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. OTHERWISE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/NR


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