Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 181738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A persistent upper-level trough is digging through the western
Caribbean from western Cuba into eastern Honduras. A surface
trough extends from 22N80W to 19N82W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 13N between 73W-82W. Although this activity
has moved south of the islands during the past few hours, re-
development could occur later today affecting the eastern portion
of Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti. Please pay attention to advisories
and bulletins from local meteorology offices, emergency management
services, and other governmental agencies.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed on
the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas
of AGADIR and CANARIAS. These conditions will dissipate during
the next 24 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 11N42W to 01N43W, moving
west at around 15 kt. Abundant moisture prevails in this wave`s
environment as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered showers are
observed from 04N-08N between 41W-46W.

A tropical wave is moving across eastern Venezuela with axis
from 11N63W to 00N63W, moving westward at 10 knots. No
significant convection is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 15N79W then into the EPAC
near 05N79W, moving west at 10 kt. Abundant moisture prevails in
the wave`s environment, as noted in TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within this wave affecting the
south- central Caribbean from 13N- 18N between 73W- 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 18N16W to 06N26W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 05N41W. No significant convection is
related to these features at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level westerly flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface, a ridge extends along 29N/30N anchored across the
western Atlantic near 33N65W. Lower pressures prevail across
Mexico and the far west Gulf waters. The pressure gradient
generated by these pressure tendencies is supporting moderate to
fresh southerly winds across the northern half of the basin.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Little change is
expected during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the south-central portion of the
basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A deep-
layer surface trough extends its axis across the western Caribbean
and western Atlantic. A surface trough was analyzed from 22N80W
to 19N82W. A diffluent flow prevails to the east of these troughs
supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north
of 13N between 73W-82W. This activity has been very persistent
during the past 24 hours. Despite the fact that the convection
has moved south of the island of Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola, re-
development could occur later today. Please pay attention to
advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other
governmental agencies. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades
across the far west and far east portions of the basin while fresh
to strong easterlies prevail between 70W-78W. A similar weather
pattern is expected during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper-level diffluence aloft prevails across the island supporting
cloudiness and isolated convection over the island. The strongest
activity remains offshore, but re-development over the island could
occur during the next 12-24 hours. Please pay attention to
advisories and bulletins from local meteorology offices and other
governmental agencies.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the far east Atlantic waters.
Please refer to the section above for details. A 1025 mb surface
high is centered near 33N65W. Its associated ridge extends across
the western Atlantic. Another surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near
41N24W. A tropical wave are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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