Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 211748

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


At 21/1800 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 20.4N 69.4W or
about 74 nm ENE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. The present
movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt
with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. The eye of Hurricane
Maria will continue to pass offshore of the northeastern coast of
the Dominican Republic today. Maria should then move near the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Friday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 21/1800 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 139 nm SE of
Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.5N 67.9W, stationary. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from 38N-43N
between 70W-74W. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 180 nm from the center. Cool waters,
dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause Jose to
steadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the
next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N40W to 07N40W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of
moderate low to middle level moisture N of 13N, and abundant
moisture S of 13N, as shown by SSMI TPW imagery. A well defined
surface reflection is also noted. Isolated moderate convection is
within 180 nm of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
13N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to 10N49W to
09N56W to 10N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is occurring
off of the coast of Africa from 05N-11N E of 24W.



A 1021 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N87W. Surface
ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico N of 26N. A very small low is
over the central Gulf near 25N88W, depicted by a swirl of low
clouds, and scattered showers within 90 nm of the center.
Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast
of Texas, and over the W Gulf W of 94W. More scattered showers are
over portions of SE florida. Surface winds over most of the Gulf
are only 5-10 kt. The Bay of Campeche has some 15 kt winds. In
the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the SW Gulf
near 21N95W. The base of an upper level trough is over the NE
Gulf. Expect the surface low to dissipate over the next 12 hours.


The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern
Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a
portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Puerto Rico, while numerous strong convection
is over the Mona Passage and the Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico
continues to have localized flooding. See the special features
section for further details. Strong winds and high seas associated
with Maria prevail in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The
eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa
Rica, Panama through Colombia supporting isolated showers and
tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean with
axis from central Cuba near 22N79W to central Honduras near
14N86W. Some scattered showers are Just E of the trough axis due
to upper level diffluence. Expect winds and seas associated with
Maria to gradually diminish through Friday as the cyclone moves
farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters.


A hurricane warning prevails for portions of the northern
Dominican Republic while a tropical storm warning is in effect for
Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the
Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory. Numerous strong convection is occurring over
the Dominican Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as
Maria continues to move NW over SW N Atlc waters.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1012 mb low, the
remnants of Lee, is located near 19N48W. A surface trough extends
N from the low to 25N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 21N-25N between 45W-49W. The remainder of the basin remains
under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north
of the area. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low
is centered near 24N49W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of
this center from 27N-31N between 39W-45W due to upper level

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