Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150036 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
735 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018


Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0015 UTC.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to
01N27W, to the Equator along 32W, to 01N40W, to the Equator
along 47W, and into NE Brazil near 01S50W. Precipitation:
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.



A surface ridge passes through the border areas of Texas and
Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Cold air
stratocumulus clouds cover much of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, that is stretching from the NE United States
southwestward across the area, will move slowly eastward through
Monday night. Fresh-to-locally strong N winds will become
moderate-to-fresh NE to E winds in the Gulf of Mexico from
Monday through Tuesday night. A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. It will reach from the
Florida Panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Mexico
on Tuesday evening, and move to just SE of the area early on
Wednesday. Its western part will be left behind as a trough in
the far western Gulf. A large area of strong high pressure in
the wake of the front will shift eastward through Thursday night
and weaken. The trough that will be in the western Gulf will
lift northward near the southern and central Texas coast on
Thursday night through Friday night, possibly with a
low pressure center connected to it.


A stationary front passes through SE Cuba to 17N80W and 10N81W. A
surface trough is along the line from western Jamaica, to 15N78W
and 11N77W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line from SE
Cuba, to 15N80W to 09N82W. Rainshowers also are possible to the
NW of the stationary front, in areas of broken low level clouds.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, from 73W
eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds in surface
tradewind flow.

A stationary front extends from SE Cuba near to 17N80W to
10N81W. This front will weaken through Monday night. Strong-to-
near gale-force N winds will continue along the coast of
Nicaragua through Monday, then diminish to strong winds on
Tuesday morning, and to moderate-to-fresh winds during Thursday
and through Friday night. Strong winds will pulse near the NW
Colombia coast each night during the entire forecast period.
Large NE swell will maintain seas greater than 8 feet in the
tropical Atlc waters through early Tuesday evening.


The weather conditions that have been occurring during the last
12 hour or so have consisted of the following: scattered low
level clouds, some cumulonimbus clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers with possible thunder.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will bring
anticyclonic wind flow to the area for the next two days.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that N-to-NE wind flow
will move across the area during the next two days, around a
Windward Passage anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will move
across the area, as an inverted trough moves across Hispaniola
from east to west.


An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N59W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the
Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface
trough is along 59W/60W from 17N to 25N. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to
28N between 50W and 60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between Africa and 55W. A 1043 mb high pressure center
is near 40N41W.

Strong central Atlantic Ocean high pressure will shift eastward
slowly through Wednesday. A stationary front currently passes
through 32N71W, across the central Bahamas, and beyond SE Cuba.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes through
32N69W to 25N72W, beyond SE Cuba. A cold front will sweep across
the NW waters quickly tonight and on Monday, and it will merge
with the first front on Monday night. Strong N to NE winds in
much of the western part of the area will diminish gradually
through Tuesday. A strong cold front will move off the SE United
States coast on Wednesday, and then it will weaken as it reaches
from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thursday evening. The
front becomes a westward moving trough in the far SE waters on
Friday. This front also will be followed by strong high pressure
and resultant strong N to NE winds along with building seas NE
of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish late on Thursday
night through Friday.

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