Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 132346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N15W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS AT 06N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N24W TO 06N34W TO 6N46W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN OF 05-10 KT. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXPECT FOR A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 77W. TO THE S...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 12N82W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 17N BETWEEN
75W-83W. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS E OF 76W SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 15 TO 20 KT TRADE
WINDS DOMINATE THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH E CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
THIS FEATURE IS REMAINING N OF THE ISLAND...KEEPING THE AREA
CONVECTION FREE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS APPROACHING THE N CARIBBEAN.
WITH THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS FROM 49N61W TO 42N58W TO
30N62W TO 24N79W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 27N62W TO
21N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
24N-47N BETWEEN 51W-62W. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW
TRANSITIONED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 24N51W TO 21N48W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
PRESENT EXTENDING FROM 27N37W TO 19N37W. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-31N BETWEEN
30W-39W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
35N42W TO 28N20W TO 38N07W. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25-30 KT IS
PRESENT BEHIND THIS FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO NEAR 31N60W TO
24N70W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PORTION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BECOME STATIONARY. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE N OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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