Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 33.5N 63.9W AT 18/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 87 NM NE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 90 KT WITH GUST TO 110 KT. THE EYE OF GONZALO PASSED OVER
BERMUDA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON BERMUDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF BERMUDA FROM 32N-37N
BETWEEN 60W-66W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N35W
TO 4N35W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND BENEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. THIS SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS MERGING WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 30W-
39W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N20W TO 7N24W WHERE THE
ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N27W TO 8N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF
AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 10W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 8N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 23W-25W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS DIPPING S OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N E OF 88W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER E TEXAS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED BY A
1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE
GULF EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOISTURE FROM T.S. TRUDY OFF
THE S COAST OF MEXICO IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 20N ACROSS THE BAY AND S OF 22N BETWEEN 87W-92W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER REMARKABLE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE N GULF EARLY SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
AND COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM A RECENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 21N W OF 85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA E OF 80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS S OF
THE CARIBBEAN OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 72W-79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 80W. NORTHERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GONZALO WILL SUBSIDE WITHIN ATLC PASSAGES SAT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC/E CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT WHEN
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND
HISPANIOLA MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE ATLC BASIN TONIGHT IS HURRICANE GONZALO
MOVING ACROSS BERMUDA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. A TRAILING
BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM 31N61W TO 25N62W AND FROM 24N70W TO 22N76W. AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W DIPPING S ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR N OF
24N BETWEEN 66W-75W AND FROM CUBA TO 32N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N51W SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
21N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 17N46W TO 13N49W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
21N-28N BETWEEN 40W-53W AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
S OF 18N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE NE ATLC TO 28N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N27W ALONG 30N32W
TO 29N39W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR 13N29W AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017
MB HIGH NEAR 23N31W. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
BERMUDA AND TRACK JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY
SUN AND WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY
MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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