Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXNT20 KNHC 010535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N12W
05N20W 04N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 01S43W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W
AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 01N TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...MAINLY FROM 08N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 27W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 28N78W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N87W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...TO 25N94W...AND TO 25N99W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR...KBQX AND KGLS.

MVFR...KBBF...KGVX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KEIR...AND KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN BROWNSVILLE...PORT ISABEL...AND HARLINGEN. VFR/
NO CEILINGS TO THE WEST IN WESLACO...EDINBURG...AND MCALLEN.
IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE. MVFR AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. LIFR IN VICTORIA/PORT LAVACA/
PALACIOS/BAY CITY/ANGLETON-LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN SUGARLAND.
LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...
IN GALVESTON...AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. IFR IN THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE
LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN GALLIANO...AROUND THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...
MVFR AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT. FLORIDA...IFR AND LIGHT
RAIN IN MILTON. MVFR IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE PANAMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AWAY FROM THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY
FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.01 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT 2400 FEET AND AT 6000 FEET AT 01/0100 UTC. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AT 01/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LA
ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA..FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EITHER TO THE
NORTHWEST OR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AT THE START OF DAY
ONE WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND BE ABOUT 230 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE SAME ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING DAY TWO. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE START OF DAY TWO WILL BECOME NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WITH AT LEAST ONE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AT THE START OF DAY TWO IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BY 600 NM AT THE END OF DAY TWO.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N60W...AND
23N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N46W 27N50W 26N56W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 24N44W 22N68W 21N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N30W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 27N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 17N34W...TO 09N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N34W
28N34W 25N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31W FROM 26N TO 33N.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N60W...ACROSS
BERMUDA...TO 28N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA...TO 27N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE 32N34W 25N33W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.