Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 110004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 20N32W TO 10N34W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. AN ELONGATED 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N34W. AT THIS
MOMENT...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 33W-37W. THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE TOWARD AN
AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THIS...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER GAVE THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 22N54W TO
09N56W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DEFINED SIGNATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. DESPITE THAT...NO
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE AS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
DUST AND SAHARAN DRY AIR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF IT.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
GUATEMALA AND INTO THE PACIFIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N90W
TO 11N91W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATED TO
THIS WAVE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM 14N-21N. THE OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 87W-90W ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND FROM 11N-14N ACROSS ON THE PACIFIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N15W TO 14N25W TO 14N34W TO
09N45W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA
NEAR 07N58W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-
15N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY VISIBLE ACROSS THE
SE PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY GENERATED
BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION FROM CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVING OFFSHORE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED E OF 90W...S OF 27N. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N93W IS COUPLING
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WITH CENTER LOCATED ACROSS E TEXAS
CREATING CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE OVER THE
E...AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS DEVELOPED
ENHANCING CONVECTION. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN GULF BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY S OF 19N BETWEEN 76W-87W. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH LEVEL OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS
AREA WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE REST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER A
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR REGIME AND DRY AIR...THEREFORE FAIR
WEATHER IS PREVAILING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS OVER HAITI MAINLY CAUSED BY DIURNAL
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HISPANIOLA...WHICH IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATED BY THE PROXIMITY OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WITH CENTER NEAR
23N63W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ASIDE FROM THE ACTIVITY GENERATED NEAR THE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CONTINUES E OF A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 30N63W
TO 25N65W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED E OF 63W BETWEEN 23N-30N. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS RELATED TO THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 23N63W. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORTHERN
BAHAMAS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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