Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 171032

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.


A strengthened pressure gradient will develop across the SW
Caribbean waters by 18/0000 UTC generating near-gale to gale
force east winds across the immediate waters offshore of northern
Colombia through Saturday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
04N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N21W to
the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N-07N between 19W-27W, and within 200 nm north of the ITCZ
mainly west of 40W.



Mostly dry and stable air aloft as noted on water vapor imagery
prevails over the Gulf basin. At the surface, overall stability
continues within the southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1029 mb high centered across eastern Tennessee. A 1029 mb
high developed over the northeast Gulf waters near 30N86W.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail east of 90W while
moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail west of 90W. The surface
high in the northeast Gulf is forecast to shift southeastward to
across northern Florida and portions of the west Atlantic waters
with moderate to fresh easterly winds persisting through Saturday.
The next cold front is expected to skirt the northeast Gulf
waters this weekend moving southward across the Florida peninsula
and far eastern waters by Sunday.


An upper-level anticyclonic circulation is centered over northwest
Venezuela near 09N68W providing much of the basin with southwesterly
to westerly flow aloft. An upper-level trough over the western
Atlantic supports a frontal system that enters the the western
Caribbean as a stationary front from the Windward Passage near
19N74W to the coast of Nicaragua near 15N83W. Isolated showers are
occurring within 100 nm on either side of the front. Moderate to
fresh trades are expected through the overnight hours into Friday
east of the front, while fresh to strong northeast winds will
prevail across the northwest Caribbean west of the front. Winds
will pulse to gale-force over the south-central Caribbean starting
tonight. Please refer to the section above for details.


Southwesterly flow aloft over the island in addition to a
stationary front analyzed across the Windward Passage region is
providing for isolated showers across the island and the adjacent
coastal waters. The front is expected to drift very slowly eastward
through tonight with isolated showers accompanying fresh to
strong northeast winds to the west of the boundary.


A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N57W to
20N72W. A stationary front extends from that point into the
Windward Passage and west Caribbean. Scattered showers are
observed north of 27N and within 120 nm on either side of the
front. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the front.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1036 mb high centered near 42N30W. An area of fresh
to strong trades is occurring within the southern periphery of
the ridging generally from 14N-26N between 33W-53W. This area of
stronger winds is expected to weaken within the next 24 hours.

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