Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 252022
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
322 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A H7 AND H5 JET WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREAT.  SOME HAIL IN NW IL COULD BE LARGER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THESE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

CONVECTION SHOULD BE ALMOST DONE IF NOT COMPLETELY DONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  PAST THIS TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP TO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

TUESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES GIVING E IOWA/W ILLINOIS A REPRIEVE FROM THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHS ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F
MAY YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES...THUS IF A STORM DOES FORM IT COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
STRONG/SEVERE. HOWEVER...WITH NO REAL LIFTING MECHANISM AND LOW
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION/850MB WV
TRANSPORT RAMP UP AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75-1.25 INCHES ARE FORECAST.
HEAVIEST TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OR
SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO NEAR
50 F FAR NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO
25 MPH..AND THE WET WEATHER WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXISTS
TO THE ESE THE END TO THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY QUIET.
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ON THURSDAY BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD LAST VERY LONG. IN FACT...MODELS INDICATE MID-
LEVEL RIDGING AT 500MB WITH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN
BETWEEN TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER...INTO THE
LOWER 60S ON AVG.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE NEXT STRONG CENTRAL PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRACK SE OF IOWA
WHICH WOULD HOLD APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. MODELS ARE AT ODDS REGARDING HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WITH
THE ECMWF MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN
SCENARIO THAN THE GFS. MODEL BLEND 40-50 POPS IS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
WEEKEND...RIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ON AVG.
UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MVFR CIGS AT CID AND DBQ
WILL NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS THIS FIELD WILL BREAK UP INTO A BAND
CU TO TCU. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER....THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. TOMORROW AM...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT MVFR FOG AND
EVEN LOW MVFR CIGS. THINK DBQ HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS AT THIS
TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CID MAY NEED TO HAVE THIS INCLUDED IN
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS


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