Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 161839
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW IS TRENDING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUD DECK IS JUST APPROACHING THE INDEPENDENCE AREA. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN
SURGE WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

UPDATE TO INCREASE MORNING POPS ACROSS THE AREA OF LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST. A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALSO
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW SHOULD BE UNDER A
HALF INCH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS IA PRODUCING DECENT VERTICAL MOTION TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW IN EASTERN IA AND NW IL EARLY THIS
MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS FROM YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. 2 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MN TO WESTERN IA AND TO THE
TX PNHDL. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS RANGED FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS TO 10 BELOW AT RAPID CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

TODAY...SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND AN INCH FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR NW CWA. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S NW TO THE LOWER 30S SE.

TONIGHT...DIGGING TROUGH IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL SWEEP AN
ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE. WIND CHILLS BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 7 BELOW NW TO 2 ABOVE SE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE SWEEPING OVER THE CWA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED BY SEVERAL
DAYS OF MODEL RUNS...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE. WHAT
REMAINS REMARKABLE...IS THE FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -18 TO
-20 OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THAT IS
INCREDIBLY COLD...AND I CANNOT RECALL SEEING THIS STRENGTH OF COLD
AIR ARRIVING MID NOVEMBER IN MY YEARS AS A FORECASTER.
SENSIBLY...THIS MEANS MONDAY WILL REPRESENT A VERY COLD WINTER DAY.
WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL NO DOUBT BRING BOTH DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN LOCATIONS AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.
WINDS MONDAY WILL BE NORTHWEST...AT 20 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND
35 FREQUENTLY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE
MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST TO BRING WIND CHILLS OF
-10 TO +5 THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS!  FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANY
CLOUD COVER IN THIS REGIME...AND WILL KEEP THAT GOING WITH SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH AS WELL. MONDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THAT WE WILL
HAVE SNOW COVER...LOWS OF NEAR ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTHEAST ARE LIKELY. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE 18TH.  WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO
DROP TO THE -18 TO -5 RANGE...REMARKABLY COLD...BUT PROBABLY NOT IN
THE ADVISORY RANGE ...BELOW -20.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS COLD AS MONDAY...BUT WITH LESS WINDY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY...WITH WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH FROM THE WEST. WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER BETWEEN ZERO AND +10 FOR
THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WAA SHOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...BUT I EXPECT A FEW
HOURS OF LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT..AND WITH FRESH SNOW STILL
WIDESPREAD...I HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE LOWS A BIT WITH LOWER TO MID
TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEDNESDAYS HIGHS REACH THE MID 20S
NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY MID MORNING
HIGHS BEFORE FALLING PM TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS QUITE COLD AGAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S. SOME TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION SHOULD ARRIVE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY LARGE WESTERN TROF.

THE PERIOD FROM DAY 7 ONWARD IS BECOMING MORE NOTABLE FOR SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST.
WHILE EXACT DETAILS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE WIDELY DIFFERENT...THEY
BOTH HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LOW AFFECTING THE MIDWEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MVFR DECK MOVING IN BETWEEN 05Z-
07Z TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD AIR SURGE. A W/NW WIND
WILL GUST INTO THE 20S BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






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